Brexit Impact on Northern Ireland

Seth Brundle

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Yesterday, Poots pledged to bring down the NI Protocol.

He can't no matter how many times he pledges. He can obstruct it however, although to date DEFRA NI under his watch has been adhering to it including to taking legal action to enforce it.

Seth Brundle

maestroamado wrote: »

I do not think the EU really care as the volume of trade between UK and us insignificant in the overall scheme of EU trade.
It is for us and the UK to resolve as to where the customs border will be.

You say it like we (RoI) are not the EU

pixelburp

The DUP must have an end-goal here though, right? They can't be so naive and stubborn as to think the NI Protocol is even up for discussion; or is it really just the usual performative resistance to whatever it is the hardened unionist community hates? I'm struggling to see the chess moves here, and given the calamitous result possible if this truly goes south; even after decades of DUP intransigence, I'm a little aghast they're so playfully trying to self-destruct the possibility of being the one region in the UK to potentially benefit from Brexit.

maestroamado

Seth Brundle wrote: »

You say it like we (RoI) are not the EU

We are both.
Someone here said a few days ago that MM and Boris were going to be discussing trade as i do not know.
MM should not be discussing this unless it has being agreed with EU.
That is my view....

ancapailldorcha

pixelburp wrote: »

The DUP must have an end-goal here though, right? They can't be so naive and stubborn as to think the NI Protocol is even up for discussion; or is it really just the usual performative resistance to whatever it is the hardened unionist community hates? I'm struggling to see the chess moves here, and given the calamitous result possible if this truly goes south; even after decades of DUP intransigence, I'm a little aghast they're so playfully trying to self-destruct the possibility of being the one region in the UK to potentially benefit from Brexit.

Nothing in either their history or ideology has ever suggested an end goal beyond continued hegemony over Northern Ireland. Sometimes, things are complicated and people have a tendency to oversimplify and sometimes the opposite is true.

Over the decades, stamping their feet and saying no loudly was enough for them to get their way and through this they got plenty. How many years has it been since RHI and Arlene never had to be held accountable. Only now, when she's clearly taking the fall for her party's absurd stance on Brexit as if she masterminded it and either tricked or coerced the rest of them into following her is she going to lose her position.

By all means, they can elect someone with such morally repugnant and frankly, moronic views as Poots. They certainly have the weird obsession with cultural peccadilloes that seems to always accompany empires and nations in decline.

As someone who was raised as a Protestant, Ulster Unionist, it genuinely baffles me how it only took them a mere few years to take NI from being in a committed union with Britain to a real possibility unifying with the rest of Ireland in the next few decades. Foster could have sank her hooks into Theresa May, kept the cash flowing in from London and insisted on favourable terms for NI with regards to Ireland and the EU.

But then, if they were pragmatic they wouldn't be the DUP.

maestroamado

pixelburp wrote: »

The DUP must have an end-goal here though, right? They can't be so naive and stubborn as to think the NI Protocol is even up for discussion; or is it really just the usual performative resistance to whatever it is the hardened unionist community hates? I'm struggling to see the chess moves here, and given the calamitous result possible if this truly goes south; even after decades of DUP intransigence, I'm a little aghast they're so playfully trying to self-destruct the possibility of being the one region in the UK to potentially benefit from Brexit.

Personally as soon as the protests started i realized that the UK Government likely knew what they were doing and it may be the EU did as well.
It seems the NI politicians had no input to this deal.
It could end up as being a great new opportunity...

BonnieSituation

pixelburp wrote: »

The DUP must have an end-goal here though, right? They can't be so naive and stubborn as to think the NI Protocol is even up for discussion; or is it really just the usual performative resistance to whatever it is the hardened unionist community hates? I'm struggling to see the chess moves here, and given the calamitous result possible if this truly goes south; even after decades of DUP intransigence, I'm a little aghast they're so playfully trying to self-destruct the possibility of being the one region in the UK to potentially benefit from Brexit.

Nope. There's no underlying strategy. This is just a classic DUP move of being backed into a corner.

Professor Moriarty

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Nothing in either their history or ideology has ever suggested an end goal beyond continued hegemony over Northern Ireland. Sometimes, things are complicated and people have a tendency to oversimplify and sometimes the opposite is true.

Over the decades, stamping their feet and saying no loudly was enough for them to get their way and through this they got plenty. How many years has it been since RHI and Arlene never had to be held accountable. Only now, when she's clearly taking the fall for her party's absurd stance on Brexit as if she masterminded it and either tricked or coerced the rest of them into following her is she going to lose her position.

By all means, they can elect someone with such morally repugnant and frankly, moronic views as Poots. They certainly have the weird obsession with cultural peccadilloes that seems to always accompany empires and nations in decline.

As someone who was raised as a Protestant, Ulster Unionist, it genuinely baffles me how it only took them a mere few years to take NI from being in a committed union with Britain to a real possibility unifying with the rest of Ireland in the next few decades. Foster could have sank her hooks into Theresa May, kept the cash flowing in from London and insisted on favourable terms for NI with regards to Ireland and the EU.

But then, if they were pragmatic they wouldn't be the DUP.

The DUP's problem is that they are now subject to the vagaries of resurgent English nationalism. 'British' is no longer the primary identity of a growing cohort of English people. In that context, 66% of mainland British people would be happy to see NI leave the UK or don't care if NI leaves. Only 24% don't want NI to leave.

So, the DUP's desire to remain in the UK isn't reciprocated by the large majority of people in Great Britain. This will be reflected in the attitude of a populist English-focused Tory party. Johnson has paid, and will pay, lip service to the DUP and will simply use them as pawns - especially in negotiations with the EU.

pixelburp

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Nothing in either their history or ideology has ever suggested an end goal beyond continued hegemony over Northern Ireland. Sometimes, things are complicated and people have a tendency to oversimplify and sometimes the opposite is true.

Over the decades, stamping their feet and saying no loudly was enough for them to get their way and through this they got plenty. How many years has it been since RHI and Arlene never had to be held accountable. Only now, when she's clearly taking the fall for her party's absurd stance on Brexit as if she masterminded it and either tricked or coerced the rest of them into following her is she going to lose her position.

By all means, they can elect someone with such morally repugnant and frankly, moronic views as Poots. They certainly have the weird obsession with cultural peccadilloes that seems to always accompany empires and nations in decline.

As someone who was raised as a Protestant, Ulster Unionist, it genuinely baffles me how it only took them a mere few years to take NI from being in a committed union with Britain to a real possibility unifying with the rest of Ireland in the next few decades. Foster could have sank her hooks into Theresa May, kept the cash flowing in from London and insisted on favourable terms for NI with regards to Ireland and the EU.

But then, if they were pragmatic they wouldn't be the DUP.

Yeah, I mean in my head I know this, it's more that after 4 years of Trump, Brexit and populist politics in general I've become more cynically attuned to the idea of Cui Bono with these massive swerves against pragmatism. I want to presume there's an angle here with the DUP because at least that's understandable to a degree. It's not even like they can claim some power to cling onto.

As you say, their prevailing, engrained strategy was "Ulster says No" and given it worked, more or less, true enough there'd be little self awareness to understand the entire topography of the British Isles had changed. Their new leader is a descendant of that very foundational principle; leaving aside Poots' dangerous personal opinions I doubt the man has upskilled in the ways and manner politics exists these days.

Needless to say I'd hate to think this sunk-cost, retrograde form of unionism might pivot the province back into violence; but then I'm not sure a United Ireland is closer either. Maybe relatively insofar as it has swung from "not bloody likely" to "very unlikely", but unlike Scotland I don't see many peaceful paths either.

Mr.Nice Guy

It was reported recently that Donaldson was keen on bringing down the Assembly.

https://twitter.com/KevDoyle_Indo/status/1392608905851723778

This is the guy who was supposed to be the moderate candidate and who got almost half the votes.

Doesn't bode well for a peaceful summer.

ancapailldorcha

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

The DUP's problem is that they are now subject to the vagaries of resurgent English nationalism. 'British' is no longer the primary identity of a growing cohort of English people. In that context, 66% of mainland British people would be happy to see NI leave the UK or don't care if NI leaves. Only 24% don't want NI to leave.

So, the DUP's desire to remain in the UK isn't reciprocated by the large majority of people in Great Britain. This will be reflected in the attitude of a populist English-focused Tory party. Johnson has paid, and will pay, lip service to the DUP and will simply use them as pawns - especially in negotiations with the EU.

While this is certainly a colossal problem for Unionism, I can't help but think that the complete lack of any sort of long term strategy is the bigger culprit. Such a vision for NI would have had them swallowing their odd obsessions for hte good of the union. Alas...

pixelburp wrote: »

Yeah, I mean in my head I know this, it's more that after 4 years of Trump, Brexit and populist politics in general I've become more cynically attuned to the idea of Cui Bono with these massive swerves against pragmatism. I want to presume there's an angle here with the DUP because at least that's understandable to a degree. It's not even like they can claim some power to cling onto.

As you say, their prevailing, engrained strategy was "Ulster says No" and given it worked, more or less, true enough there'd be little self awareness to understand the entire topography of the British Isles had changed. Their new leader is a descendant of that very foundational principle; leaving aside Poots' dangerous personal opinions I doubt the man has upskilled in the ways and manner politics exists these days.

Needless to say I'd hate to think this sunk-cost, retrograde form of unionism might pivot the province back into violence; but then I'm not sure a United Ireland is closer either. Maybe relatively insofar as it has swung from "not bloody likely" to "very unlikely", but unlike Scotland I don't see many peaceful paths either.

We won't know until we know I suppose. For starters, the Tories need to believe that there is a majority in NI for unification.

What I wonder is how, hypothetically, a capable DUP leader would handle things going forward. I'd say that trying to persuade Johnson to align with the EU to loosen trade restrictions and impediments but that ship has left the harbour.

I wouldn't normally employ such simplistic reasoning but having grown up a Unionist, I understand it sufficiently to see who's behind the curtain and find them wanting.

The Golden Miller

Brexit has made unity a realistic possibility. Before it wasn't. A vast section of the younger Irish demograph identified as "Northern Irish". The only way to uphold Northern Ireland was to stay in the UK. The voting figures simply weren't there for unification.

Thing is though, that demograph of nationalists who would identify as "Northern Irish" wouldn't have strong alligience to the UK or Northern Irish if their standard of living plummeted. What Brexit has potentially done is push the nationalist section who would stay in the UK, back to the "other side". Depending how bad the economic situation in the north goes, unity could be very much on.

On top of this, the younger people from the nationalist community have now been exposed to the true colors of unionism, who if they don't get their way, show they aren't very accommodating to nationalists. Unionists should be bending over backwards to show how accommodating they are to nationalists, because now they'll rely on them to keep them in the union, but all they've done is the opposite.

blanch152

The Golden Miller wrote: »

Brexit has made unity a realistic possibility. Before it wasn't. A vast section of the younger Irish demograph identified as "Northern Irish". The only way to uphold Northern Ireland was to stay in the UK. The voting figures simply weren't there for unification.

Thing is though, that demograph of nationalists who would identify as "Northern Irish" wouldn't have strong alligience to the UK or Northern Irish if their standard of living plummeted. What Brexit has potentially done is push the nationalist section who would stay in the UK, back to the "other side". Depending how bad the economic situation in the north goes, unity could be very much on.

On top of this, the younger people from the nationalist community have now been exposed to the true colors of unionism, who if they don't get their way, show they aren't very accommodating to nationalists. Unionists should be bending over backwards to show how accommodating they are to nationalists, because now they'll rely on them to keep them in the union, but all they've done is the opposite.

Those who identify as "Northern Irish" reject the idea of being either Irish or British. They have no interest in a united Ireland, however, an independent Northern Ireland member of the EU, with consequential strong links to the South, but also a member of the Commonwealth with the Queen as Head of State and strong cultural links with a human rights charter overseen by the EU/UK/Ireland would very much appeal to them.

The Golden Miller

blanch152 wrote: »

Those who identify as "Northern Irish" reject the idea of being either Irish or British. They have no interest in a united Ireland, however, an independent Northern Ireland member of the EU, with consequential strong links to the South, but also a member of the Commonwealth with the Queen as Head of State and strong cultural links with a human rights charter overseen by the EU/UK/Ireland would very much appeal to them.

There can never be an independent "Northern Ireland", it's UK or unification. The idea of this Northern Irish identity, is therefore soft unionism by default, some nationalists believing it to be a neutral identify.

I'd say many will be questioning this identity as of recent times. Unionist intolerance will harden their attitude

maestroamado

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

It was reported recently that Donaldson was keen on bringing down the Assembly.

https://twitter.com/KevDoyle_Indo/status/1392608905851723778

This is the guy who was supposed to be the moderate candidate and who got almost half the votes.

Doesn't bode well for a peaceful summer.

I think they all know we are heading towards a United country quicker than any of us expected.
I also think Boris sees this as an opportunity to get rid of expensive whingers...

Professor Moriarty

maestroamado wrote: »

I think they all know we are heading towards a United country quicker than any of us expected.
I also think Boris sees this as an opportunity to get rid of expensive whingers...

There's a problem...

Fionn1952

The Golden Miller wrote: »

There can never be an independent "Northern Ireland", it's UK or unification. The idea of this Northern Irish identity, is therefore soft unionism by default, some nationalists believing it to be a neutral identify.

I'd say many will be questioning this identity as of recent times. Unionist intolerance will harden their attitude

It isn't a case that it can never happen, just that it would require the passing of a referendum here and an agreement in NI and the rest of the UK to set aside or amend the GFA.

As there is absolutely negligible support for NI independence beyond among hardline Loyalism and a small group of folk like Blanch trying to insist that it is what the people of NI want (regardless of anything like actual facts), I don't think it is likely, but certainly not impossible.

FrancieBrady

If Poots and the other unionist leaders insist on ignoring the North/South bodies I think it is tme for Dublin to begin looking for a democratic vote in the north.
Time to ask the people what direction they wish to travel in.

Fionn1952

blanch152 wrote: »

Those who identify as "Northern Irish" reject the idea of being either Irish or British. They have no interest in a united Ireland, however, an independent Northern Ireland member of the EU, with consequential strong links to the South, but also a member of the Commonwealth with the Queen as Head of State and strong cultural links with a human rights charter overseen by the EU/UK/Ireland would very much appeal to them.

*citation needed*

Professor Moriarty

Edwin's creationist beliefs will attract much use of the word 'dinosaur'. And with both meanings.

FrancieBrady

FrancieBrady wrote: »

If Poots and the other unionist leaders insist on ignoring the North/South bodies I think it is tme for Dublin to begin looking for a democratic vote in the north.
Time to ask the people what direction they wish to travel in.

I don't think it's time for anything like that, yet.

FrancieBrady

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I don't think it's time for anything like that, yet.

Politicians are fermentig violence and tension, how far do you allow that to go before you ask the people?

pixelburp

FrancieBrady wrote: »

If Poots and the other unionist leaders insist on ignoring the North/South bodies I think it is tme for Dublin to begin looking for a democratic vote in the north.
Time to ask the people what direction they wish to travel in.

But where's the proof that the voters are abandoning these leaders, such that external influences might be seen as allies to The People? The DUP only swagger to the extent that they do as - for whatever reason (presumably partially the tactical voting to stymy The Other Side winning the seat) - they still command
the unionist community. I doubt centrist unionism is that enamoured with Poots' philosophies, but what other choice is there in X constituency?

Infini

FrancieBrady wrote: »

If Poots and the other unionist leaders insist on ignoring the North/South bodies I think it is tme for Dublin to begin looking for a democratic vote in the north.
Time to ask the people what direction they wish to travel in.

As in Assembly Elections? Because to be honest at the very least these clowns need to see an electorial reckoning and these Dinosaurs need to be held to account for their incompetence and failures for creating the situation.

maestroamado

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

There's a problem...

I think more than one but will have to be sorted...

FrancieBrady

Infini wrote: »

As in Assembly Elections? Because to be honest at the very least these clowns need to see an electorial reckoning and these Dinosaurs need to be held to account for their incompetence and failures for creating the situation.

Phrase the question so that voters can indicate what they want.
Dont make it about party or person.

maestroamado

FrancieBrady wrote: »

If Poots and the other unionist leaders insist on ignoring the North/South bodies I think it is tme for Dublin to begin looking for a democratic vote in the north.
Time to ask the people what direction they wish to travel in.

I agree with the vote but think it not Dublin role to ask but Mary Lou can as she is leader in both...
I think there need be a bit of sparring first though...

FrancieBrady

maestroamado wrote: »

I agree with the vote but think it not Dublin role to ask but Mary Lou can as she is leader in both...
I think there need be a bit of sparring first though...

Our 'role' is well established in the GFA.

No need to make it about parties.

maestroamado

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Our 'role' is well established in the GFA.

No need to make it about parties.

SF were there before GFA so i expect roles change all the time in politics.
Its not about parties its about Ireland.
I am simply saying SF are the only ones who could say that at this moment.
Personally i think its your time...

FrancieBrady

maestroamado wrote: »

SF were there before GFA so i expect roles change all the time in politics.
Its not about parties its about Ireland.
I am simply saying SF are the only ones who could say that at this moment.
Personally i think its your time...

SF would not be listened to.


The time is now for the Irish government to call for clarity on 'what the people want'...not the DUP or SF or the SDLP or the UUP.


Clarity.
If the people decide they wish to ditch the protocol and sail unknown seas with the UK in trying to solve the conundrum posed by partition...so be it. Then we can stop wasting time and effort trying to stop that situation arising.

maestroamado

FrancieBrady wrote: »

SF would not be listened to.


The time is now for the Irish government to call for clarity on 'what the people want'...not the DUP or SF or the SDLP or the UUP.


Clarity.
If the people decide they wish to ditch the protocol and sail unknown seas with the UK in trying to solve the conundrum posed by partition...so be it. Then we can stop wasting time and effort trying to stop that situation arising.

So why would i vote for a party who admit themselves that they would not be listened...
There is no effort been made by SF that i can see.
I expect they are putting themselves abit out of the NI picture their silence.
Blaming others is not a political policy unless there is something positive therein...

FrancieBrady

maestroamado wrote: »

So why would i vote for a party who admit themselves that they would not be listened...
There is no effort been made by SF that i can see.
I expect they are putting themselves abit out of the NI picture their silence.
Blaming others is not a political policy unless there is something positive therein...

Who 'admitted themselves'?

The purpose of the Irish government calling for something is to avoid poliical parties getting proprietorial.

Take party allegiances out of it as much as possible.

yagan

FrancieBrady wrote: »

SF would not be listened to.


The time is now for the Irish government to call for clarity on 'what the people want'...not the DUP or SF or the SDLP or the UUP.


Clarity.
If the people decide they wish to ditch the protocol and sail unknown seas with the UK in trying to solve the conundrum posed by partition...so be it. Then we can stop wasting time and effort trying to stop that situation arising.

With the elevation of a creationist as the principal unionist voice it also elevates reunification as a secular choice. Their greatest threat was always equality, not SF.

maestroamado

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Who 'admitted themselves'?

The purpose of the Irish government calling for something is to avoid poliical parties getting proprietorial.

Take party allegiances out of it as much as possible.

Originally Posted by FrancieBrady
SF would not be listened to.



It was you who wrote this.

maestroamado

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Who 'admitted themselves'?

The purpose of the Irish government calling for something is to avoid poliical parties getting proprietorial.

Take party allegiances out of it as much as possible.

Originally Posted by FrancieBrady
SF would not be listened to.



It was you who wrote this.
All i see SF doing is stating what others should be doing.
They seem to have lost their way...

maestroamado

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Who 'admitted themselves'?

The purpose of the Irish government calling for something is to avoid poliical parties getting proprietorial.

Take party allegiances out of it as much as possible.

Originally Posted by FrancieBrady
SF would not be listened to.



It was you who wrote this.


All i see SF doing is stating what others should be doing.
They seem to have lost their way...

FrancieBrady

maestroamado wrote: »

Originally Posted by FrancieBrady
SF would not be listened to.



It was you who wrote this.


All I see SF doing is stating what others should be doing.
They seem to have lost their way...

And I asked you where SF had admitted they would not be listened to?

The purpose of 'guardians/co signatories of/ guarantors of' an international agreement is to be neutral as much as possible and that is why this would make sense coming from one of the guarantors if not from both.

maestroamado

FrancieBrady wrote: »

And I asked you where SF had admitted they would not be listened to?

The purpose of 'guardians/co signatories of/ guarantors of' an international agreement is to be neutral as much as possible and that is why this would make sense coming from one of the guarantors if not from both.

You said SF would not be listened to...


Its not really important as they have not made a positive comment recently that i am aware of...
It looks to me as if SF are being left behind on this one...

FrancieBrady

maestroamado wrote: »

You said SF would not be listened to...


Its not really important as they have not made a positive comment recently that i am aware of...
It looks to me as if SF are being left behind on this one...

Because they aren't being listened to.:rolleyes:

Which is why I said it should be coming from the guarantors of the agreement.

maestroamado

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Because they aren't being listened to.:rolleyes:

Which is why I said it should be coming from the guarantors of the agreement.

Why would we want to be represented by a person who said...


no-one would listen to me... defeated...

FrancieBrady

maestroamado wrote: »

Why would we want to be represented by a person who said...


no-one would listen to me... defeated...

Yes, you got it in one...no one would listen to you.

The call should come from one of the guarantors or both of them ideally...'what do the people believe is the way forward'.

maestroamado

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Yes, you got it in one...no one would listen to you.

The call should come from one of the guarantors or both of them ideally...'what do the people believe is the way forward'.

I am not asking people to vote for me...


The way things are looking it is not SF, kinda lost i think...

FrancieBrady

maestroamado wrote: »

I am not asking people to vote for me...


The way things are looking it is not SF, kinda lost i think...

The governments would be asking the people to vote, not for parties but for a direction of travel.

Do you understand the concept?

maestroamado

I agree with you that the only people that can do anything is the Governing parties, i do not agree with this as it has made SF redundant.
The unfortunate thing is they are happy with this role, if we have a belief we need to keep saying this...

FrancieBrady

maestroamado wrote: »

I agree with you that the only people that can do anything is the Governing parties

Good for you, glad I convinced you of that.

We can but hope they will do the responsible thing.

maestroamado

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Good for you, glad I convinced you of that.

We can but hope they will do the responsible thing.

When it happens i doubt if we will have much say...

schmoo2k

How come the DUP seem to be the only party getting coverage from NI - if there was an assembly vote to keep / remove the NI protocol now (like their will be in 4 years) what would the result be?

blanch152

FrancieBrady wrote: »

And I asked you where SF had admitted they would not be listened to?

The purpose of 'guardians/co signatories of/ guarantors of' an international agreement is to be neutral as much as possible and that is why this would make sense coming from one of the guarantors if not from both.

Nonsense.

The Anglo-Irish Agreement is an agreement between two sovereign states - UK and Ireland. Their governments can decide together how best to implement it. That doesn't mean they have to do what anyone else says or thinks is right.

weemcd

schmoo2k wrote: »

How come the DUP seem to be the only party getting coverage from NI - if there was an assembly vote to keep / remove the NI protocol now (like their will be in 4 years) what would the result be?

I'll take a shot at this, DUP are very easy headlines at the minute because every thing they touch seems to burst into flames and then they cry betrayal. Easy way to gain clicks, views, soundbites. By far and wide Nolan, the Newsletter are the worst culprits and to a lesser extent, The Belfast Telegraph.

SF, Storey funeral aside, have managed to keep their noses relatively clean in comparison. The less they say and do at the moment, the better. Never interrupt your enemy while they make a mistake and all that.

I've no idea what the landscape will look like in 4 years, history would show us that Stormont could well have collapsed by then. The election and census next year will probably be as good a barometer as you could hope for at present. Virtually all the negativity towards the border protocol lies within Unionism and more specifically Loyalism. A strange thought considering this was the demographic that pushed for Brexit the hardest.

If I had to guess now, majority of the public don't really have too many problems with the protocol and provided large catastrophes are avoided I don't think a vote to remove it would be easy to come by.

BUT Northern Ireland is an odd little place and has always been quite hard to predict. In 4 years time it may be SF vs DUP as always, OR the landscape could look remarkably different...

Seth Brundle

And so the propaganda continues to emanate from Westminster (to what end?)...

December 24th...

https://twitter.com/DavidGHFrost/status/1342128236847886336

Yesterday...

https://twitter.com/Andrew_Adonis/status/1397886743895027722