Brexit Impact on Northern Ireland

Seth Brundle

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118501551#Comment_118501551

In terms of your first line, there does not appear to be any other reason for them to want it to be brought in and it only benefitted the DUP.

As for the second statement, the DUP took a deliberate strategy in terms of Brexit that would have made the people of NI worse off. Despite knowing that Ni was better off under the NIP, they continued (and still kinda continue) to demand the removal of the NIP which would massively damage the NI economy. They also appeared to be encouraging the return of sectarian violence to NI. None of the DUP should be given the privilege of representing the people of NI in either Stormont, Westminster or even in a poxy little residents assocation - they are a cancer on NI.

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118500980#Comment_118500980

Abused? They did this entirely to themselves. They've destroyed Unionism and done more to secure a United Ireland than any nationalist. They did a dirty deal with Theresa May, sold their souls for £1 billion and then reneged on the deal for reasons of ideological purity.

What a fool I was. I was only a puppet, and so was Ulster, and so was Ireland, in the political game that was to get the Conservative Party into power.

Edward Carson.

kowloon

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118502061#Comment_118502061

Don't get me wrong, I don't feel sorry for them. It's just interesting to watch them get continuously ignored or punished by their masters only to go straight back for more. It's the masochistic obedience that I find unusual.

eddie73

Brexit will impact Northern Ireland very negatively. In economic terms, there will be carnage. If there is any compensation through union with the mainland, then it will have to be a very strong ideology to sustain it.

L1011

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118501263#Comment_118501263

Just like in ROI, he doesn't have to give up the MP seat first; its just sort of the done thing in the UK to stand down before the election for the other role rather than on election like here. I'm fairly certain he won't - he should be very safe getting in, although he may end up knocking out either Edwin Poots or Paul Givan!

The risk is that he wouldn't get a DUP candidate across the line in the Westminster by-election, in his super-unionist constitency. Majority was cut by over 10k last time, resurgent UUP + angrier than ever TUV snapping at his heels; further tactical voting by SF and SDLP voters (many of which clearly voted Alliance last time) and Alliance could take it.

Leroy42

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118502493#Comment_118502493

But what option do they have? They feel completely British, and therefore their only friend is GB. So the Tories dump on them, again, but what is the alternative? They have none. So they put up with whatever they get because if they lash out they may be dumped and then they will be on their own.

They cannot run the risk of the GB government, whomever it is, taking the view that NI, by dint of DUP, is really too much trouble and sure let's have a vote. Once that even begins being talked about the fundamentals of NI will completely change.

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118505290#Comment_118505290

What option do they have? None.

What options did they have? All. They had Theresa May bent over a barrel between 2017-2019. They could have insisted on full access to the EU's single market and customs union, parity in subsidies for farmers going forward, more investment for NI or whatever. They could have forged a new vision for Unionism based on internationalism like Republicans have done. Instead, they settled for a bribe, a meaningless pledge and tubthumping.

NI's fundamentals were irrevocably changed on the 23rd June 2016. The DUP chose to deny this and stick to their standard No! No! No! routine and, shock horror, it hasn't accomplished anything. Worse, they've drawn the attention of the rest of the UK and Europe to their toxic beliefs and electoral tactics.

So, no. They're in a corner but it's one they cheerfully marched into themselves. No nationalist since the foundation of NI could have damaged the union so badly and in so little time. I'm almost impressed.

Mr.Nice Guy

https://twitter.com/SuzyJourno/status/1484657507914104833?cxt=HHwWgoCyxeWIyJopAAAA

The same poll showed SF on 25% (+1) and DUP on 17% (-1). I do wonder if this business of 'let's crash Stormont over the protocol' is really just a smokescreen for 'let's crash Stormont because we don't want a nationalist as First Minister'.

If Stormont gets brought down by an increasingly desperate Donaldson, I think it would be extremely difficult to bring it back. None of the ideas being put forward by the DUP look positive for the future of the union.

Seth Brundle

Crashing Storming won't change anything in terms of the NIP as London will be governing NI and, as we saw in the past, will rule without consideration for DUP or TUV policies (e.g. abortion).

The unionists are doing what they can to distance themselves from the damage they themselves wanted. They also want to look tough in front of the home crowd given their diminishing voter base.

eire4

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118519592#Comment_118519592

I think you hit the nail on the head there with their real reasons.

Capt'n Midnight

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118520617#Comment_118520617

NI is less than 3% of the UK's population. Their representation in Westminster consists of 8 DUP who can be bought (most of the time) (7 SF who don't vote) leaving just 2 SDLP and 1 Alliance MPs out of 650.

Crashing Stormont or even the constant thread of doing so would mean that those who don't want to be ruled by decree from Westminster may start looking south.

Mr.Nice Guy

UUP leader Doug Beattie's position in big trouble after a series of tweets from a decade ago resurfaced. Too many of them to repeat here - on BBC Talkback they said there are around thirty that have come up - but a search on Twitter brings a bunch of them up. He's facing accusations of racism, misogyny, anti-Irish remarks, being transphobic, and more.

He sounds broken listening to him now on BBC NI trying to explain this. I do find his defence of this quite desperate. He said it was 'a different time, ten years ago'. Was 2012 really that different in terms of attitudes? Don't think so.

Raises serious questions about what this means for the upcoming election. Will those tempted to give the UUP a vote now think twice if he stays on, and if so, who will they turn to?

AyeGer

Those tweets sound like the real Doug Beattie. His later change to a softer position was likely more political in nature hoping to bring back some of the alliance voters to the UUP. The funny thing is he will likely now be a perfect fit for the TUV. They will love those tweets.

L1011

He was in his late 40s when posting those tweets, so none of the "I was young and I've matured" cover.

UUP seem doomed in terms of finding a sane long-term leader. Suspect the problem is so many of the politically astute soft-u unionists have left to Alliance.

pixelburp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118530356#Comment_118530356

In any other country, those tweets might blow the doors off Beattie's political career; in Northern Ireland they may just swing him to an equally fruitful one with hardliners. As @L1011 says the "I was young and an idiot" excuse doesn't really apply here. He's also of the right generation to "get" social media too, so he can't even plead ignorance IMO about how the tech. works. Does make you wonder, Twitter aside, how many sitting politicians have used TheJournal, Boards, or any other online outlet's own internal commenting systems to post some incendiary remarks.

kowloon

@Mr. Nice Guy Raises serious questions about what this means for the upcoming election. Will those tempted to give the UUP a vote now think twice if he stays on, and if so, who will they turn to?

I'd say some DUP voters might just be more inclined to give them a shot.

L1011

A quick check by a journo found three SF MLAs with similar problems:

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-60145127

SF have had this over and over again, you'd definitely think they'd scan through all reps accounts for dodgy content and delete!

Mr.Nice Guy

I listened to Talkback on BBC NI which was discussing Beattie's comments. Many callers were practically giving Beattie credit for the episode, saying he had handled it well. One of the contributors said the fact he was in the army ought to excuse his comments as that was the culture, and an ex-army officer called in and backed up this line of reasoning. I'm not surprised he's kept his position but I am surprised he sorted the issue out in 24 hours.

Capt'n Midnight

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118536076#Comment_118536076

They are doing that right now

Sinn Féin’s Operation Delete Tweets goes into overdrive (under cover of a media blackout)…

They are more media savvy than most Unionist parties so the wonder is that they didn't do it sooner.

Mr.Nice Guy

https://twitter.com/politicsIN/status/1487347975974174721

She's carrying on where Lord Frost left off. What mandate do they have to warrant her time?

In other news, it appears neither the DUP First Minister Paul Givan, nor the PM Boris Johnson, will be in Derry to mark the 50th anniversary of Bloody Sunday tomorrow.

votecounts

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118550315#Comment_118550315

I'd leave Givan and Bojo off Micheal Martin has reluctlantly decided to go. No such problems attending poppy ceremonies or celebrating 100 years of partition. Only going for political reasons, hope he's given a hostile reception by the murder victims families.

Professor Moriarty

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118550355#Comment_118550355

Damned if you do and damned if you don't.

Seth Brundle

Poots throws a grenade on the NIP (and subsequently the peace process)...

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/poots-orders-halt-to-all-post-brexit-checks-on-goods-from-britain-into-north-1.4792047

Kermit.de.frog

Big question now is what the British Govt is going to do? Takeover and implement themselves?

From midnight they will be in default of their obligations and the single market will have an unprotected border.

You can count the days on one hand the rest of the single market will tolerate this.

Seth Brundle

In all likleihood Johnson will like the idea of having the EU stand up and threaten the UK. It will both distract from his recent negative headlines and also help boost British nationalism against the EU.

Of course, it won't be good for Northern Ireland but neither the DUP nor the British government care about NI.

Kermit.de.frog

Irish government is expecting the UK govt to intervene...

https://mobile.twitter.com/oconnellhugh/status/1488938956708356100

Mr.Nice Guy

There was obviously some form of coordination with the British government and the DUP over the attempt to bring back double jobbing. The British government went back on that idea. Will they do the same here, or will they welcome these new headlines?

Kermit.de.frog

Looks like the British govt wants to collude based on initial response...

https://twitter.com/MarkerJParker/status/1488942811743502340

It's up to the EU to take a tough approach. This is a breach of a treaty if checks stopped at midnight.

Capt'n Midnight

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118572360#Comment_118572360

Poots doesn't even have the support of the DUP so the Tories can throw him under the big red bus whenever it suits them.

Former DUP leader Edwin Poots has insisted that he “hasn’t gone away” after he failed to secure the party’s nomination to run in the Northern Ireland Assembly elections in the South Down constituency.

serfboard

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118572407#Comment_118572407

'"Sinn Fein MLA John O’Dowd said ... he had “no doubt” civil servants were “already taking advice on these matters.

“The civil service has its own guidance and protocols to work to and I have no doubt the civil service will be examining that very closely,” he said.'

John O'Dowd obviously thinks that the Civil Service will decide not to implement the Minister's wishes. Be interesting to see if he's right.

Kermit.de.frog

It would surely be taken very badly by the Commission if the British were seen to be colluding with the decision of a regional party to breach a treaty in order to gain leverage.

Surely, this is a step too far for them to tolerate.

Kermit.de.frog

https://twitter.com/MarkerJParker/status/1488974426007818244

It's a matter for the executive according to the UK government. That's new and entirely dishonest of course. It's written in to UK domestic law.

downcow

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118550315#Comment_118550315

and why would paul girvan be in Derry to remember that particular atrocity?. If he went to the scene of every atrocity on its anniversary then he would have several to attend each and every day

Seth Brundle

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118572922#Comment_118572922

Mod: stop trolling

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118572922#Comment_118572922

Seriously? Your first post here in years and you write this? Permaban reapplied.

Seth Brundle

Speculation seems to be that Poots was given a blessing from above on this as part of the dead cat strategy to remove attention from the PM...

https://twitter.com/mi6rogue/status/1488990547477942279?t=4y86ElxCmEId9Vfh3tpbtA&s=19

Kermit.de.frog

Complete lies here.

https://twitter.com/itvpeston/status/1488964725572612098

The protocol is written in to UK law. Anyone else reckon that the UK govt have calculated that with the Russian threat currently the EU won't want to push this? They should of course.

Leroy42

And it won't be lost on the EU that as the Ukraine crisis reaches tipping point the UK take an openly hostile act towards the EU.

Mr.Nice Guy

This spells out the absurdity of the British government's position:

https://twitter.com/DavidHenigUK/status/1489001975568080903?cxt=HHwWjoC5-Yva_6kpAAAA

I'd agree they've probably calculated that the EU and US attention will be primarily on Ukraine, and as a result it will lack the robust response it might otherwise have had.

It just goes to show the double standards. The British are expecting Russia to adhere to international law and norms, while turning a blind eye to the DUP sticking two fingers up at it for their own electoral purposes.

Peregrinus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118572918#Comment_118572918

Given that Downing Street is sticking firmly to the position that whether to obey the law or not is a personal choice for the Prime Minister, they can hardly argue that Poots is obliged to obey it.

Leroy42

So is the UK effectively ceding control of the matter to NI? A NI that voted to remain in the EU?

This was always likely to happen. The DUP were always going to invoke A16 if the UK government continued to refuse to do it themselves.

And as a short term tactic it has merits. If the EU do nothing, then the argument will be made that the checks were never necessary in the 1st place. If the EU act to stop it then it is moving a hard border ever closer, which people can blame on the EU.

Medium to long term it is a terrible strategy of course, but Johnson is iiving day to day and the DUP only care about surviving the next election at this point, so medium and long term is not being considered.

retalivity

Reports this morning that Paul Givan is expected to quit over brexit.

Elections coming early for the North...EDIT: or maybe not, looks like they have 6 weeks to nominate replacements.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/feb/03/northern-ireland-first-minister-poised-to-quit-over-brexit-reports-say

Seth Brundle

Given that this is just an election stunt, what is the political benefit of this?

https://twitter.com/tom10248/status/1489166021630083076

Mr.Nice Guy

BBC NI's Gareth Gordon said today that the Stormont 3 year budget can't be passed if the First Minister resigns. Political editor Enda McClafferty told Talkback earlier that he's hearing rumours of an early election, possibly the second week of March. Looks like the DUP are banking on all this chaos to lure votes away from the TUV.

Checks are still continuing for the time being:

https://twitter.com/seanwhelanRTE/status/1489198702568910855?cxt=HHwWjsC9qY6V2aopAAAA

awec

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118575438#Comment_118575438

At the moment (well, before today at least) the DUP were stuck between a rock and a hard place. For moderates, they are unpalatable for a number of reasons, one of which being their push for brexit when it was clear it was not in the best interests of NI. These people also don't forget RHI etc. For hard-liners, they are seen as a weak party doing nothing to ditch the protocol.

They're doubling down on their anti-protocol agenda to try cement their position with hard liners.

awec

You also need to factor in that it's highly likely that after the next election SF will be the largest party, and the DUP could lose some key ministries. If the protocol is still in place and SF become the major party then it's here to stay.

It's a last, desperate roll of the dice.

serfboard

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118575547#Comment_118575547

I can't see this stunt being enough to halt the draining of votes to the UUP/Alliance on one hand, and to the TUV on the other.

I also find it difficult to imagine the DUP operating an executive in which they are not the majority party.

pixelburp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118575547#Comment_118575547

As ever you'd have to wonder what, if any, internal polling is telling the DUP that they feel confident in pulling stunts that must surely alienate the ideological centrists or those not so blinded as to risk a gift horse like the Protocol. If not, it's a huge gamble that fear of the other crowd is enough to guarantee the vote in precarious constituencies. Either way, their behaviour is a stain on democracy in the North TBH.

awec

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118576779#Comment_118576779

This is what NI politics is.

DUP election campaigns have always been about stopping the other crowd. Always.

pixelburp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118576796#Comment_118576796

Oh I agree, but if they're not 100% sure that fear still works, the tactic will eventually fail. And when it does, will they accept a nationalist majority Executive gracefully? Current behaviour says: not bloody likely.