Brexit Impact on Northern Ireland

gmisk

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118576834#Comment_118576834

Bloody being the operative word...

gmisk

Confirmed Givan has resigned..

Mary Lou pushing for an election as expected

awec

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118576834#Comment_118576834

The upcoming elections will be very interesting as for the first time since the first assembly elections they are basically going to be completely centred around a single issue.

Turnout in NI elections is usually rubbish as apathy toward the institutions is high, will be interesting to see if it's the same this time.

Glaceon

I wonder what the DUP’s true motives are. Do they really want a hard border? Their antics lately suggest to me that they do. They also seem unwilling to accept the demographic shift and the possibility of a nationalist First Minister.

pixelburp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118577263#Comment_118577263

The DUP do not exist as a conventional party of governance, only as an intentionally obstructive entity; one that finds itself increasingly at odds with the province it might claim to uphold the values of. Its founding principle was as a bulwark against a demographic it never recognised as legitimate, or one worth sharing power with. If all these crude, selfish actions finally burn the remaining drifting votes that might have gone their way, then it'll be good ridden to a bad faith party.

MBSnr

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118577263#Comment_118577263

I'm not sure they really know. They have decided on a course of action regarding Brexit and now have to double down on it at every opportunity by making headlines, even if they know it's probably wrong and self destroying. The admittance of failure, a change of direction and a nationalist FM is too much for them, so they'd go down with the ship instead, with everyone tied to the deck chairs....

The DUP also want an early election. One opinion is that the DUP want to try and cash in on the maximum unionist vote that is disgruntled with the NIP, judging by polls that they have conducted within their own community. I guess they figure it's now or never and the only way they might help boost their share of the vote, which is slipping away.

farmerval

It looks like this is a move that might cover them for refusing to go back into power after the elections when Sinn Fein will have the first minister role.

Jeffrey said today after collapsing it would make no sense to go back into government if they don't get their own way on the protocol.

Mr.Nice Guy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118582688#Comment_118582688

I was listening to the UUP leader Doug Beattie being interviewed on Talkback earlier and he also wouldn't give an answer either as to whether he would go into government with a SF First Minister. Sad state of affairs but not surprising.

Faugheen

I think the DUP feels the tide turning towards very soft unionism and they have no idea how to adapt.

There is still a solid hard-line unionist vote out there but at the moment it's being split between the DUP and TUV. Peter Robinson, to his credit, did a lot more to bring more moderate unionists on board which was then evaporated by Foster's Brexit stance, considering a sizeable number of those moderates voted against Brexit and now they're filtering towards the Alliance. Regardless of what the Alliance say about being 'neutral', keeping the status quo is unionism.

Funnily enough, a chunk of the hard unionists didn't think they were strong enough on Brexit.

Big Ears

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118584106#Comment_118584106

It's worth remembering that a lot of the DUP vote is actually just an anti Sinn Fein vote from Unionists.

So a UUP leader coming out and saying they'd definitely go into power sharing with a Sinn Fein First Minister would put off a considerable amount of the people they'll be hoping to take votes off of from the DUP.

Whether the UUP actually would or not, I've no idea.

awec

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118582100#Comment_118582100

Ah there's no way the DUP want an early election. There's a reason they've waited so long before collapsing Stormont, at this stage it's very unlikely there'll be an early election. This is all part of the stunt.

If there was one tomorrow the DUP would be in big trouble.

Seth Brundle

It looks like the DUPs actions in collapsing the executive are now having an impact on foreign businesses investing simply because Invest NI cannot free up funding (article paywalled)...

https://twitter.com/BelTel/status/1494437576928866311

RandomViewer

Sammy getting booed was priceless

Irish History

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118000731#Comment_118000731

An old fallacious argument that Ireland as a whole can not afford to reunite. Dail Eireann have been working on elements of a reunification paper through its 'Joint Committee on the Implementation of the Good Friday Agreement'. They produced a paper called 'Uniting Ireland & its People in Peace & Prosperity'. The Irish Government says we can reunify our country - and Ireland north and south, will be better off as a result.

AyeGer

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118663648#Comment_118663648

The DUP have made a real mess of things in NI. Sammy getting booed was pretty funny alright. He has said some terrible things down the years and to see his own turn on him is a welcome dressing down for him.

On a more serious matter though they have lost one of their future big players in Christopher Stalford today. He passed away last night at 39 leaving behind a wife and 4 children. Very sad situation.

pixelburp

There's a very real argument to be made that the DUP are the most incompetent, ham-fisted political party of the last 30 years on these islands. Their inability to read a room, guage their own locality's temperature and just possess a broad sense of realpolitik or nous has been a constant source of amazement. They were Westminster's kingmakers for a hot minute and even managed to balls that up.

Seth Brundle

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118665082#Comment_118665082

Sammy looked as if he was trying to emulate Paisley Sr from the 70s & 80s. What I found worst about his rant was the use of terminology such as "the enemy". That kind of militaristic rhetoric is designed simply to rile people into an aggressive reaction and has no place in a democratic country.

Gael23

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118665082#Comment_118665082

what was going on that lead him to do that?

AyeGer

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118665669#Comment_118665669

To do what?

Peregrinus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118665669#Comment_118665669

No cause of death has been announced yet, but he is said to have died "suddenly". His own farther died of a stroke at the age of 26, so there is a family history of cerebral events. I think we'll here soon enough that it was a stroke or an aneurysm. Terrible news, and dreadful thing for his family.

Kermit.de.frog

Whilst I thought his unionism and anti-Irish outlook was particularly virulent I can separate the politics and accept most of that is electoral theatre. RIP. Tragic for any family.

pixelburp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118665303#Comment_118665303

It just shows what tired, empty old men they are. No fresh ideas or blood, no forward rhetoric, no plan for the province; just that same hollow sloganeering, like the one hit wonder still trotting out that beat the world has moved on from. Their big brexit swing might kill the province they claim to love. Eternal fear and hostility towards demographics that barely exist now ... though at least the papist Tadgs south of the border have become even more godless and heathen - so the DUP presumably still have the fundamentalist vote locked in. What sensible lowercase U unionist would be enticed by their regressive, inept politics? It boggles the mind.

serfboard

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118666219#Comment_118666219

"What sensible lowercase U unionist would be enticed by their regressive, inept politics?"

None is the answer. The sensible lowercase U unionists have drifted off to the UUP and Alliance. And the insensible uppercase U Unionists are drifting off to the TUV, leaving the DUP facing very big challenges. And it's trying to chase the TUV voters that has them carrying on with their current nonsense.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118667966#Comment_118667966

Previously the belligerent wing of Unionism was able to bully most of the rest at times of perceived constitutional peril. I think this is why the DUP are lurching open armed to the TUV position.

Expect an onslaught of 'Lundy' 'traitor' campaigning as they once again try to bully through fear and scaremongering. I am not altogether convinced it won't work. They may succeed.

retalivity

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118672881#Comment_118672881

There's far more 'enlightened' (i.e. young) people up north now, both nationalist and unionist, for whom the fear-mongering of old will not work. People who have grown up and spent the last 25 years in mixed schools, social and work settings and for whom the big bad fenians/orangemen schtick just does not apply to them.

On the nationalist side, SF are far more palatable to young people as they at least try (or appear) to be more progressive - supporting gay marriage, abortion, etc. Whereas the DUP have gone the complete opposite direction and doubled down on hardline conservative rhetoric (although not hard enough for some, hence the move to the TUV). What do the DUP actually offer young people in the North? They've shafted the youth on Brexit, tied up stormont on arguing on trivial things like the language act, spouted nonsense about being spiritual god-fearing people then getting caught out in scandals like RHI. I don't understand how any young unionists could even hold their nose and vote for them, other than those who spend 3 months of the year building bonfires and 9 months on the couch. They should be annihilated in the May elections.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118674205#Comment_118674205

Trust me, the election will be about saving the Union and people will be Lundied and called traitors. See what they are doing to Beattie...that will intensify.

I still think it might just work for them, or enough to keep them top dog.

Mr.Nice Guy

Quite a significant day as Stormont passes the Integrated Education Bill by 49 votes to 38. Will mean the Department of Education has to increase the number of integrated school places and set targets for educating children in them. Just 7% of pupils are educated in integrated schools currently. The DUP had tried to block the bill with a petition of concern but couldn't get the required 30 MLA signatures to block it. They needed a few of the UUP but they wouldn't support blocking it. While I'm glad they didn't use the veto, it's still a shame that no unionist supported it:

https://twitter.com/AmandaFBelfast/status/1501590024957087748

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118759009#Comment_118759009

There iction coming, I think only for that you may have seen the UUP behave differently.

awec

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118674205#Comment_118674205

Young unionists don't hold their nose and vote for them and never have. Turnout in NI elections is pretty low, especially among younger voters (under ~40). Turnout is lower I believe in unionist areas. The DUPs base is older, more hard line unionists.

I think the UUP is trying to position itself to hoover up some of these young, moderate voters, but time will tell if they are successful.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118759240#Comment_118759240

Not sure what happened with my post, meant to read:

'There is an election coming. I think only for that you may have seen the UUP behave differently.'

trmartin

A challenge to the NI Protocol by several unionist politicians has been rejected today (14 March) by the Court of Appeal. The Court's ruling says that the Protocol was lawfully enacted. Lady Chief Justice, Dame Siobhan Keegan, said the case was very far from one where a court would even begin to contemplate whether it could intervene as the appellants suggest.

https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2022/0314/1286299-ni-protocol/

serfboard

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118784071#Comment_118784071

Since the charming Kate Hoey was involved in the legal action, I can't imagine that she was surprised when an uppity Taig of a Chief Justice sided with the EU!

Fionn1952

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118784994#Comment_118784994

Delightful, 'there's always a tweet' moment from young Bryson earlier today when he was making insinuations about the impartiality of the judiciary.....a quoted tweet from him in September praising Keegan as a fantastic judge who will make an excellent Chief Justice who will ensure the entire community can have confidence in the judicial system.

Suddenly when things don't go his way, she's too taigy.

Mr.Nice Guy

I saw many unionists were going mad about this earlier today:

https://twitter.com/DavidScullion/status/1503385904551022594

The British government have rolled back on it following the backlash. It was a misunderstanding apparently...

https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1503470110304088070

You can be sure the penny still won't drop that they don't give a damn across the water.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118501131#Comment_118501131

Northern voters attitudes to a potential UI when economic/domestic issues are invoked would appear to favour the no side at the moment. The Institute of Irish Studies, University of Liverpool/The Irish News Opinion Poll of April 2022 asked the following questions:

"I would vote for a united Ireland even if it meant paying higher taxes." Only 24.9% agreed, while 52.4% disagreed.

When asked: "I would vote for a united Ireland even if it meant having to pay a fee for the healthcare services currently provided by the NHS." 23.3% agreed, while 56.9% disagreed.

https://www.liverpool.ac.uk/media/livacuk/humanitiesampsocialsciences/documents/Institute,of,Irish,Studies,Irish,News,Poll,March,2022.pdf

It appears to me that alot of work needs to be done to persuade people in NI of the benefits of a UI, especially if you link the issue to everyday topics such as the economy, healthcare etc.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119410221#Comment_119410221

There is a more up to date poll from that source that shows more in favour 42% (from memory)

YFG also produced a poll here

https://twitter.com/cjhumanrights/status/1553410770737709057/photo/2

We are where the Scottish referdum was before it was called - support around the 30-35 percentile.

The pressure to test this with the electorate is mounting as is the need for urgent planning and discussion with stakeholders. Can't see it going away either with Truss or Sunak about to take the reins in the UK.

Sam Russell

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119410458#Comment_119410458

Before there can be a united Ireland, there must be a united NI. If they cannot live in peace and harmony with each other, how can we expect they can live in peace and harmony in a UI?

Asking in a poll a hypothetical question like 'I would vote for a UI if it meant higher taxes?' is a nonsense. What taxes would be higher, and by how much? Would higher taxes pay for higher social security and pensions? Would I be better off in a UI? Would t'others be better off? Last one might be more significant than the others.

Why not ask 'Would you vote for remaining in the UK if it meant young people under 30 being conscripted into the British Army?'

Simple questions get simple answers.

Polls are designed to get the answer wanted by those paying for it.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119410646#Comment_119410646

The very reason there is an aspiration for a UI (a different way) is because there will never be 'harmony'.

My offering to people in NI would be that an inclusive UI, where everybody has the loudest voice possible in the running of the island's affairs, is a 'better' way to achieve peace and harmony.

There will always be a rump of belligerents and bitter partitionists.

It is minimising the influence of that rump that we should be seeking to do.

I agree with the 'more tax' question, very few will answer that unknown positively.

asdfg87

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119410458#Comment_119410458

Who participated in the survey?

This is exactly my own thinking, i expect there will be a lead-in period and that the future funding of NI will be on the table I am thinking there be a fund for the whole Island in this time as there will be big changes North and South if we are to have a UI.

New constitution for the whole of the Island, political reform, health service, judicary. Interesting times ahead.

Are the EU currently taking any action against UK because of the protocol changes? I think the EU just want a resolution and its really up to UK to find a compromise, we will only really come into the frame at a later time,

pixelburp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119410458#Comment_119410458

I think once the question of the Norths bloated public service swings into view, the percentages will drop. Brexit is hastening the question, but the answers as it were, haven't changed.

Fionn1952

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119410646#Comment_119410646

I understand the sentiment Sam, but if (and I emphasise the if) the cause of the problem is partition itself, and the history of NI, which at its core was created to maintain the supremacy of one community over the other....well you'd have to question whether the continued existence of that statelet is actually prolonging any movement towards living in harmony?

To many, the suggestion that we can't contemplate Unification until the reason that Unification is important doesn't exist any more is akin to having a policy of telling people with an infection that they can have antibiotics just as soon as they finish fighting off that infection. It's a bit late, misses the point and could well lead to more deaths (but at least you'll save on the price of antibiotics I suppose).

An exaggerated metaphor of course, and you may disagree with the foundational premise that NI itself IS the problem, but it is just to highlight how your black and white approach ignores any degree of complexity.

I agree with your point on polling entirely. Polls can have value, but once there's any step away from questions which are neutrally phrased, they're about as much use as a chocolate teapot. 'Here, d'ya fancy spending a non-specified amount of money with no indication what it'll be spent on' is always going to elicit a negative response.

asdfg87

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119410787#Comment_119410787

I expect when all sectors are considered we have more public service personnell per-capita in the South.

Interesting to know?

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119410787#Comment_119410787

Prehaps one of the main reasons we need to properly look at this with the stakeholders and problem solvers.

Personally cannot see why a properly ordered transition period would not largely deal with it. No recruitment, voluntary redundancy packages, voluntary redeployment over a period of years etc.

Jim2007

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119410677#Comment_119410677

You think tax will be the only issue that will come up for serious debate....

• Adding over 1m conservative voters to the electoral rolls will change the direction of Irish society
• The dominance of SF in a UI
• Militarisation of the police force
• Body bags coming back from NI containing young guards and soldiers

A poll taken before the running even starts does not count for much. Once the campaigning starts attitudes will change very quickly. Asking people if they want a UI if it means say divorce, abortion and gay marriage will be repealed is a very different question, just as asking people in NI if they are willing to accept a proposition which is so much against their religion.

My expectation is that poll will be held too soon, it will be lost and you can wait another 50 years before it comes around again.

asdfg87

According to the web.

304,000 public servants South.

23,000 in Northern Ireland.

Is this correct?

L1011

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119410884#Comment_119410884

The structures would require another poll after 7 years.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119410884#Comment_119410884

Campaigning will be on the basis of a plan/proposal in which all those 'serious issues' (A few project fear ones if I may say so) will be dealt with.

asdfg87

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119410884#Comment_119410884

If Britain decide to leave what happens, for me this decision is already made. The UK has to tick some boxes with EU and USA, throw a big pile of money at it for 10 years and its done.

People do not seem to realize is Britain can walk away from NI when they want, it now seems to be at the point that no-one wants the responcibility of NI and Britain are the only ones that want a UI, what happens then.

I expect if the assembly gets going again there be a new game.

I expect the Gardai will be armed.

Why in earth would you say divorec etc be repealed? thats nonsence.

BonnieSituation

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119410884#Comment_119410884

Sounds awfully like a Unionist veto with that threat of violence.

I thought they were all democrats?

asdfg87

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119411104#Comment_119411104

The Unionists game is over, Boris outmanouvered them, it be interesting if new leader carry on, Likely as looks like Liz

The funny thing is all of our politicians tell us they want a UI, now is the time but we do not seem to be ready.

None of them dare to mention it but that likely just the politics game, it will be a game-changer if it happens.