Brexit Impact on Northern Ireland

Sam Russell

The UK Gov are heading to privatise the NHS, so the current format of being free at the point of use may end. Meanwhile, the Irish Gov are heading towards implementing Slainte Care which aims to have health care as being free at the point of use. Now if that question was put, which type of answer would one expect?

There is no reason to expect that the NIPS would disappear any time soon if there was a UI. I would expect a long term transition for a united police force over the whole island. Do not forget, we have an ex-PNSI high ranking officer as Garda Commissioner. So we have already started the integration.

BonnieSituation

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119411137#Comment_119411137

We'll never be ready if you listen to the Partitionists.

asdfg87

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119411165#Comment_119411165

Why would you think i would listen to Partitionists?

The ones that will be most effected will likely be the politicians and civil servants on both sides of the border.

asdfg87

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119411160#Comment_119411160

What is the timeline for Slainte Care? i expect possibly a UI come first.

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119411137#Comment_119411137

He didn't.

They'd best Theresa May at political chess only to, for reasons best known to themselves, begin eating the pieces.

asdfg87

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119411277#Comment_119411277

I do not know how hae swung it but it got done and for me it started a whole new chapter in NI. called "protocol" so as you say he got them to eat the pieces but he done it.

BonnieSituation

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119411261#Comment_119411261

I'm a civil servant. I won't be affected beyond our cohort increasing, but seeing as we were chronically understaffed for nearly 2 decades, hat will be welcome. I imagine we're not the only unit in that position. There's a lot more to the civil service than state administration.

asdfg87

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119411312#Comment_119411312

The web says the republic has 304,000, i expect its more a case of management.

All state employees are the same for me, its up to Departments to manage.

Mr.Nice Guy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119410646#Comment_119410646

'Before there can be a united Ireland, there must be a united NI' is just a partitionist cop-out. There will never be a united NI because the polity was set up to enshrine and perpetuate division. What you are advocating for is to give unionism a veto over the perfectly legitimate aspiration of reunification. It is a mindset that emboldens unionism to adopt a position of 'never, never, never' forever more because all they have to do is maintain a divided NI, and thus prevent unity. There can be no unionist veto.

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119411296#Comment_119411296

He did jack squat. It was Theresa May's deal with the original backstop. They essentially carved up their own country.

asdfg87

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119411381#Comment_119411381

This conversation is not about Brexit and NI, the protocol is belong to Boris.

You seem to forget Theresa was gone before Brexit done.

asdfg87

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119411378#Comment_119411378

There will i expect be progress towards a united NI if the assembly gets running. if they join the veto is gone. That's why getting the protocol changes so important to this conversation. It will be interesting to see if EU make compromises, some of the changes like no checks on goods sold in NI make perfect sense to me.

Sam Russell

By a united NI, I meant a dialling down of the vitriol and threat of political violence.

If every possible issue becomes a massive political issue that call for manning the barricades, even if it is nothing, is what I meant by 'uniting', not making a nothing issue into an existential one requiring massive expenditure of political capital.

It is the continual calling out the sectarian mob that is the basic problem.

BonnieSituation

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119412432#Comment_119412432

The only threat of violence has come from loyalism.

You're saying ignore it?

Sam Russell

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119412514#Comment_119412514

Not at all. The Tories are stirring it up and encouraging it.

The Tories need to dial down this whole NI Protocol nonsense, and implement the agreement they made. All their actions have been deplorable for a state that claims to follow the rule of law and lectures others when they break international law with no regret.

The Loyalists need to be pursued without any doubt. The NIP fully implemented would upset their criminal enterprises.

[Edit: It took Trimble to break ranks with Ian Paisley, a large section of UU and all of the DUP to bring a Unionism voice into the GF agreement, and peace.

It may take another unionist leader to break the stranglehold that sectarianism has got on the unionist mindset. Maybe they do not have such a leader yet, waiting in the wings, but someone might emerge. It will take some such change to bring some semblance of normal politics to NI. Maybe a Loyalist convert might manage it.]

asdfg87

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119412514#Comment_119412514

I am not aware of any real threat of violence in NI in recent years from anyone.. What are you referring to?

It may be i missed it.

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119413234#Comment_119413234

I think Bonnie is referring to the increase in hostile invective coming from key DUP politicians. Republicans don't have to do this. All they have to do is wait...

BonnieSituation

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119413234#Comment_119413234

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119413384#Comment_119413384

Indeed.

Fionn1952

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119410911#Comment_119410911

To be clear, this is entirely untrue. A poll can't occur less than 7 years after the previous one, but there's no reason that it couldn't be ten, twenty or fifty years later. There is nothing in the GFA that sets a maximum duration between border polls, just a minimum.

Sam Russell

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119413883#Comment_119413883

You are quite correct.

The only criteria laid down in the GFA is that the Secretary of state is minded to hold a border poll if the SoS believes that such a poll would be successful. If a poll is held, another cannot be held for at least seven years.

The So alone has the power to hold, or not to hold, a border poll.

asdfg87

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119414192#Comment_119414192

I expect we a few years away from a poll as there have to be a package put in place if the result goes towards a UI. No point in having a poll unless the Governments have a plan in place if people vote for it.

BonnieSituation

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119414254#Comment_119414254

Too early to plan for it though.

That's what we keep being told anyway.

Sam Russell

If there is no plan in place, it will be too easy for the project fear to swing into action. The old 'if you don't know, vote no!' is a typical slogan that will work against a vote for a UI.

It will take a respected Unionist to swing behind a UI before there will be any momentum that will swing public opinion.

It will take a Little Englander PM (and one may emerge from the current contest) to push for the cut in the cost to the UK exchequer of supporting NI, and demanding cuts in that support.

Or perhaps the continued decline in the NHS that will begin to shape public opinion.

All of those factors may align.

It never made any sense to create NI as it was formed - 1) based on historic county boundaries, and 2) getting a Unionist majority certainty, and 3) allowing it to be big enough to survive. It would have made more sense to make NI just that bit that is east of the Bann, but it is what it is.

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119414469#Comment_119414469

No PM is going to want the Union to break up. Cameron only permitted IndyRef because he knew the polling favoured No and that the media would swing in behind him. Of course, Northern Ireland is not Scotland but unless the English become more apathetic towards the union than they currently are, it's probably not going to happen.

I think a lot of Unionists are more amenable to a UI than one might think. Much hinges on how London handles the cost of living and NHS crises. If I were devising a campaign for a UI, I'd be focusing heavily on a positive vision with as much detail as possible on things like the economy and real, tangible benefits that a UI would offer everyone in NI. Most Unionists are moderate and, at the very least, would accept a unification vote in a border poll with no more than grumbling. Reaching the over-zealous portion of the demographic is pointless and shouldn't even be attempted. The likes of Dodds, Wilson & Paisley Jr are yesterday's men.

It won't happen soon but that's no reason not to start laying the foundation for a campaign with polling, slogans, messaging, etc. Proper preparation will be key.

Sam Russell

To me, the most obvious preparation would be to set up a Citizen's Assembly in NI and a separate one in Ireland to try and tease out the issues that matter to Unionists and Nationalists. Not all Nationalist would favour a UI if it disadvantaged them - not that I think it would.

If the issues are all understood by all sides, then a solution or proposals for solutions could be drafted, and the prospect of a UI might not seem anything but better than the current situation.

They did it with the GFA, so they can do it again. This time by consulting each other.

asdfg87

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119414434#Comment_119414434

It depends on who we listen to, the whole Island of Ireland will change if it comes about.

Sam Russell

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119415501#Comment_119415501

It will indeed.

The question is would we level up to their form of health service, assuming it has not collapsed in the mean time. Will they level up to our level of social security? Will our Civil Service absorb theirs, with some of the admin going north? Will the NIPS continue as a separate force, or be merged gradually? Will the Unionist voices survive in a UI or will they merge with different political factions here?

The political parties in the north are formed on a sectarian basis, including Alliance which is a non-sectarian sectarian party. If all of that is no longer valid, where do they go? How long will the realignment take?

asdfg87

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119415772#Comment_119415772

I expect the process take at least 10 years from when its started. NI politics is not the same as in rest of UK. Neither is our system the same as rest of EU. So there will be compromise, there be only one force Gardai. We will have to make it possible for it to be equal whether up or down it will be about standard of living. Houses are half the cost in NI at the moment and not a huge house crisis like here. Goodbye Vulture funds.

The politicians will decide the politics of it all in Dublin/London/Washington and Brussels

Fionn1952

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119415772#Comment_119415772

I'm guessing you don't have much experience with the health service in NI if you think it is levelling up?

Free at the point of service is a wonderful concept, but it has already collapsed.

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119416504#Comment_119416504

I don't get where the admiration of the NHS comes from at all. It's a mess. Heck, I have foot pain and my GP had not interest in seeing me. I just got a text telling me to buy Sketchers.

asdfg87

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119416518#Comment_119416518

So that's one problem solved, nothing needs doing as service same through Island.

Sam Russell

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119416504#Comment_119416504

I live in Dublin and have no interaction with NI NHS.

It is not the reality of the NHS which has been starved of funds under the Tories, and of staff since Brexit that matters.

It is the notion of it, enshrined in popular culture, that it is free at point of use, that it is the best in the world, and it is a British invention.

Of course that truth is historically possible, but underinvestment in the fabric, in the staff, in the procedures available, all speak loudly that currently that reputation is no longer valid. The creeping privatisation undermines the very nature of the NHS that people hold so highly.

Many myths will be put to the test. Rome rule - here in Ireland - you must be joking! NHS in NI is better the HSE - maybe but not certainly. Lots of myths will be proved wrong.

asdfg87

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119416767#Comment_119416767

Like you i have no first hand experience of Health in NI, i have a family member who moved north a few years ago and they are always praising the health system in the North.

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119416767#Comment_119416767

I only registered with them during my MSc. Found the staff quite condescending. I think I'd to have a vaccination as well. Certainly nothing to set it apart from the HSE in my experience.

Hermy

When talking of the impact of Brexit on Northern Ireland one of the biggest issues has been the threat it poses to the peace process.

Could an argument be made re a United Ireland posing a similar threat?

In an ideal world I'd like nothing more than to see Ireland reunited but surely down that road lies an even greater threat of a return to violence than Brexit has done thus far.

And if that is so is it worth the price?

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119418003#Comment_119418003

There is always a threat, on both sides of a return to violence.

In the case of a positive vote for a UI you first of all would have to ask, what would be the point and who would the violence be trying to persuade.

Then look at how it would be sustained with a hostile British security system and Irish one, not to mention world security systems. Sure you can say the IRA managed it, but arming themselves to a degree capable of undermining a new state would be next to impossible.

Then you have to look at the appetite. It isn't there in the wider Unionist community. The militant belligerent faction is meeting in the upstairs rooms of pubs and even street protest support over the Protocol is patchy at best.

Sam Russell

If the British Gov, through the SoS for NI calls a border poll, then it is a certainty that a positive vote for a UI, by at least 52%, would require the UK Gov to accept the result and implement it with the full force of the law, with military backup if required.

With the UK Gov, Irish Gov, the EU, and the USA all backing a UI, who is there to fight against for those in opposition to a UI?

Not going to happen outside a few nutters who would be identified prior to the vote and they would be closely monitored.

Hermy

Not disagreeing with either of you, but if the potential threat of a return to violence posed by a united Ireland can be so easily dismissed, why can the threat of violence posed by Brexit not be similarly dismissed?

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119418494#Comment_119418494

Scale.

Violence around the imposition of a land border would be a very real prospect.

Scenario: One or two attacks on a border post would force the British to put boots on the ground again to protect those manning the border. Nobody is going to work a border without protection.

Those intent on violently opposing that have a hinterland to operate in, that Unionists simply wouldn't have in a UI scenario. The British mainland would not be a safe hinterland for them to operate in (arms/munitions route)as the Irish republic would be for republicans, relatively speaking. Of course the Irish security apparatus would kick in but would not be as effective because they will find plenty of sympathetic support. Then you have the prospect of a military border dragging more and more people in and Loyalist reprisal. And back we go.

In that scenario the scale of the violence possible would be much larger and potentially more destabilising.

Nobody, including, I believe the British, wants to go there.

Capt'n Midnight

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119418494#Comment_119418494

Distance

Most of those threatening violence over Brexit would be in the North East in areas that were historically ethnically cleansed. The Bann could make an interesting border.

The borderlands are more diverse and cover a much larger area. The biggest supplier of vehicle fuel at one point were the paramilitaries despite the British Army having 1/3rd of current size there.

Economics

Since Brexit only two regions have improved. One is London. The other isn't in Great Britain. If the UK pulls the subvention it's game over and Liz Truss is looking to save about £10Bn to get the PM's job.

reslfj

A quick question about roaming on the island of Ireland.

What are the rules for Irish based, NI based and GB based mobile subscriptions when moving around the island of Ireland?

I have found a §11 about telecommunication in the WA/NIP https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=celex%3A12020W%2FTXT , but I'm far from sure personal roaming is covered?

I know my DK phone provider (3 subsidiary) has included the UK in its the EU pricing. I had no problems when I recently visited both Ireland and NI including crossing the land border several times in a bus.

Lars 😀

Sam Russell

I am surprised there are no complaints from NI about the unfair shipping costs for things bought from GB.

A lot of on-line sites quote shipping as free (except for NI, Scottish Islands, plus a few more places).

Surely, it should be the same price (free) for shipping anywhere in the United Kingdom Single Market - or perhaps it is not so 'single' after all.

Of course it is not easy to make a three word slogan about this particular aspect of NI/GB trade.

schmoo2k

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119468834#Comment_119468834

This was the case before Brexit as well

Sam Russell

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119470721#Comment_119470721

Yes, I know, but it is still an issue.

Why are they not protesting about it? Surely, it should be including on the normal UK distribution system.

Capt'n Midnight

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119470746#Comment_119470746

"Highlands and Islands" were always different. And NI was a step down from there before it remained in the EU Customs Union.

Anecdotal evidence that NI is more of a pain for small/medium GB companies to export to than Europe

tinytobe

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119412432#Comment_119412432

I find society in NI very fragmented, and often riddled with problems everywhere one looks.

If there is talk about a possible referendum regarding re-uniting Ireland one should keep in mind, that these would all be problems the Republic would have to deal with.

What would Dublin then do, in dealing with the UFF or the UDF? Would Dublin accept murals of Oliver Cromwell heroically on a horse as we see them today in parts of Ulster? Or when marching season is on? Any reaction from Dublin will certainly not be a neutral one, not in the eyes of protestants.

I think it would have been better Brexit would never have happened, Belfast and Dublin having their governments, and the border being as transparent and invisible as possible.

Sam Russell

The problems after UI would be similar to the situation following the treaty in 1922.

Some of those who preferred the British regime left, some joined in with the new regime, and some just hunkered down and kept a low profile. The professionals - the law, and medicine - just carried on doing what they did and sending out their bills. Those in the civil service did whatever suited them - many leaving, but many just joining the new regime.

Some put up covert resistance like the banks who did not help the new regime raise needed funds, but that faded as the new regime managed to get the needed credit. Government funding was in a parlous state for the new Irish Free State - the term Free was a bit of an ironic label.

I cannot see the UFF or UDF managing to get any real numerical support. If the real leaders have any sense they will join and participate with the new politic.

If the UI is able to achieve sufficient financial support from the EU, USA, and the UK so that there is a positive improvement in the current living standards in NI, then any problem arising from UI in NI will soon be forgotten.

Capt'n Midnight

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119483220#Comment_119483220

Look at the street names mostly unchanged apart from Patrick , O'Connell and the 1916 leaders. Lots of existing statues, old postboxes still have royal logos and there's the Royal Dublin Society and the Royal National Lifeboat Institution.

Marching season happens in parts of the south too. Rossnowlagh had one guard on duty and the constitution guarantees right to assembly unless there's probable cause so no parades commission.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119483220#Comment_119483220

What parts of Dublin do you think will be painting murals of Oliver Cromwell?

Sam Russell

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119487499#Comment_119487499

Well, following independence, they was great enthusiasm for renaming streets in Irish, but when no-one could find their way around, they dropped the idea and put the old signs back. I think the stations were only renamed in in 1966, but I may be wrong in that.