Brexit Impact on Northern Ireland

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119910295#Comment_119910295

There is nothing from SF that recognises the identity issues. They can't even bring themselves to condemn the woman who sang "Up the RA" in Arlene Foster's face. A typical mealy-mouthed MON response was the best they could come up with.

Sam Russell

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119910350#Comment_119910350

Ever been to a GAA match at any level?

Whether it is Mayo up for the all Ireland (yet again), or a grudge match between neighbouring villages, there is no shortage of identity. However, that is not based on bigotry, or hatred.

NI is different because it was founded on bigotry and hatred, and power was handed to one side who used that power in a most partisan way - pure majoritarianism. They used gerrymandering to control political power, and used that power to benefit one side of the divide, while doing their utmost to harm the rest.

Hoped for diminution of this is there, but the reality is that the hatred and the bigotry is alive and well in NI.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119910442#Comment_119910442

Compare and contrast who is blocking identity rights currently - this is a very simple thing to do.

Compare and contrast O'Neill's condemnation of the girl singing and Arlene's condemnation of her own party members language and utterances on identity/conflict issues not to mention threats and actual violence from LLC umbrella groups.

Draw your own conclusions.

FrancieBrady

Seems Unionist objections to the Protocol are of the a lá carte variety. Edwin is a farmer which I'm sure had no influence on this.

https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1596231449643982849

FrancieBrady

No surprises here.

https://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/politics/breaking-news-uk-supreme-court-rejects-bid-to-have-judges-examine-the-legality-of-the-northern-ireland-protocol-3936649

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119939066#Comment_119939066

Apparently the Newsletter was a bit premature and have now withdrawn the story. Odd.

Sam Russell

The hearing begins today and is scheduled to continue to 1st Dec. So we await the decision.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119939228#Comment_119939228

I wonder did somebody in the Newsletter hit 'publish' on a pre-prepared article? It even had a quote from Jim Allister saying the 'fight would go on'.

Extremely odd.

Seth Brundle

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119939238#Comment_119939238

...but to be fair, the Jim Allister quote is quite predictable.

Sam Russell

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119939659#Comment_119939659

As is the decision of the Supreme Court.

Chips Lovell

I know Brexit and the situation in Stormont probably made it seem like a referendum on union was a live issue but there's a big poll in the Irish Times today which injects a dose of reality into proceedings.

This ain't happening any time soon.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119951851#Comment_119951851

No big surprises in this. There is nothing for those don't knows to decide on. No plan/proposal etc.

Nothing to convince those who wish to remain in the Union.

As the pollster in the podcast says, 'support for the Union is historically low at 50%'.

Chips Lovell

Kind of sums it up alright. Even as the UK becomes increasingly dysfunctional, few are convinced that entering a union with Ireland is a better alternative.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119951894#Comment_119951894

Because 'Ireland' has no plan/proposal to offer them. Again as the pollster says in the podcast, 'look at what happened in Scotland' support for Independence before a vote was called was '27%' and went to 50% until Gordon Brown intervened with promises (that didn't materialise).

I think you can read the desire for a referendum as a call on those responsible to get their act together and make a proposal, i.e. the Irish government.

Chips Lovell

I think we agree that we've nothing to offer them. Where we disagree is the notion that the onus should be on us or that this somehow is a failing on our part. That's not really how these things work. It has to come from within. As you rightly point to Scotland, that's where the momentum came from. It's not like the rest of the UK was trying to persuade them to vote for Independence. Ditto with the EU. It does not try to woe new members by trying to sweeten the deal or changing itself to suit them. It's the aspirant members who have to do the work.

jh79

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119951900#Comment_119951900

Assuming SF will be in government soon, how long do you think before we see a plan?

Are SF not missing an opportunity with Brexit by avoiding the hard questions re unification? By the time they get into power the protocol will probably be sorted making a UI even harder

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119951943#Comment_119951943

Are you accepting one part of the polling and ignoring another?

A majority in the south are in favour of Unity. That in itself will drive momentum with even FG beginning to look for ways to capitalise on this demographic.

Not sure where I 'agreed' we have nothing to offer.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119952074#Comment_119952074

Those are questions for SF.

My view would be a plan/proposal would be a part of any coalition deal.

With a majority here in favour that isn't going to do anyone any harm electorally.

jh79

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119952147#Comment_119952147

Depends on the priority placed on it. Well known that it's not a priority in Ireland for the majority.

Take setting aside money for a UI, i think it's a sensible idea but how popular would that be with a housing and health crisis?

Charles Babbage

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119951894#Comment_119951894

How could somebody already be convinced of something that hasn't been quantified?

jh79

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119952195#Comment_119952195

There has been research into the cost. It tends to be ignored because it doesn't make good reading. SF had research commissioned into the benefits but it didn't make good reading either and they don't mention it anymore.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119952158#Comment_119952158

??

Not how it works. You could ask that at any time. There are things that need to be done at any time.

You could ask how sensible (I wouldn't BTW) is it to be spending nearly 200 million housing refugees when there is etc etc. or a children's hospital.

Same inane questions are asked of spending money on a spire when etc etc.

jh79

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119952216#Comment_119952216

We are not talking about millions but billions here Francie. Even if we took the cheap option of maintaining economic partition in a UI we are talking upwards of 2.5bn a year. Now, nobody in NI will vote for a UI were absolutely nothing changes so the cheap option isn't realistic especially when polling at less than 30%.

Chips Lovell

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119952075#Comment_119952075

It won't. A majority in the South are in favour of a lot things, such as fixing the housing crisis, improving the health service, better infrastructure. The government is going to focus it's efforts on things that they can influence. Since the trigger for a vote on union is the likelihood of a majority in Northern Ireland, they're not going to waste much effort on developing plans until that happens.

The only government that would probably do anything remotely serious about it is a Sinn Fein-led one and even they would need to be careful since the current surge in support for them is less about their position on Northern Ireland and more about their promises to fix housing and health. If they waste their political capital on chasing a pipe dream of unification, voters won't be long in punishing them.

Anyway, to get back to the topic at hand, the poll numbers mean that unification isn't realistic option for solving the Brexit situation.

Chips Lovell

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119952195#Comment_119952195

It's probably more accurate to ask "how can somebody be already convinced of something that hasn't been quantified in more detail?" The fundamentals of it are known. I mean it's not long Northern Ireland will be spinning a wheel unaware of which country is going to end up unified with. And most voters there would have more than a passing acquaintance with this state.

Why are you only asking this about those opposed? The question could also apply to those who are convinced it is a good idea.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119952225#Comment_119952225

Are you telling me or yourself?

I, when talking about a UI, am proposing an investment. And I daresay any plan/proposal will.

Who will be onboard to ensure that investment pays off, remains to be seen, but signs are that the EU, US, the UK itself will be.

Some people for a variety of reasons won't opt for something nebulous JH79...any polling is distorted by that fact. Listen to the podcast for what is being said, not what you want to hear.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119952272#Comment_119952272

Anyway, to get back to the topic at hand, the poll numbers mean that unification isn't realistic option for solving the Brexit situation.

...because nobody has made a plan/proposal to 'solve' it via unification.

We can keep this up all day, but I have Santy to see to and football to watch.

jh79

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119952293#Comment_119952293

That's a lot of wishful thinking. The "plan" is being avoided because the negative impact it would have on the polling. That is the reason for SF cowardice on this. They know there is no positive spin that can be put on the cost of it.

If a decent plan could be put together we would of seen an outline of it by now.

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119952306#Comment_119952306

But doesn't that tell you everything?

If the Irish south of the border haven't something feasible, even at the draft stage then how close is unification in real terms? The way I see it, if such a plan did exist and we had a UK government willing to grant a border poll, we'd be looking at unification no earlier than 2030.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119952321#Comment_119952321

That is also 'wishful' thinking jh.

Cowardice? SF are active on a UI...as are others. Look around you.

The only people who can credibly produce a plan/proposal are an Irish government with a majority supporting that.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119952328#Comment_119952328

Fine by me.

I think the longer the lead in time the better, within reason.

I see the Irish and UK working closely to make it work. The last thing the UK will want is a mess.

jh79

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119952331#Comment_119952331

Are they though? The more popular SF become the lower support for a UI becomes. While it is only a correlation, it seems whatever they are doing isn't working. Only 54 % of Catholics want a UI, they are struggling to convince their own nevermind the other side.

The signs for the "plan" aren't great when an EU/US magic money tree are being floated.

Chips Lovell

I think there's wishful thinking on two fronts, 1.) that the government will concoct a plan any time soon, and 2.) that a plan would shift public opinion in Northern Ireland in any meaningful way.

There are a lot of parallels with Brexit when you think about it. A realistic assessment of the impact by the government proposing the vote would only dilute support. In order to garner support, you'd need to start spinning promises like "£350 million a week to the NHS".

jh79

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119952358#Comment_119952358

I think that was SF intention with the Hubner report but it backfired on them. A plan can be suggested and discussed anytime. No party has confidence in a plan changing anything hence why none exist.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119952355#Comment_119952355

Magic money?

Who mentioned that?

Support can take many forms. I am sure there will be investment in all sorts of ways.

Again listen to the podcast and the caveat of sitting on laurels. It's more complex than the anti-UI people would make out.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119952358#Comment_119952358

I would say there are closer parrelells to Scotland and the people who conducted this poll point to that rather than the mess the Brexit poll was.

jh79

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119952372#Comment_119952372

There are no obstacles to setting out a plan. We are sitting on our laurels by choice. Some because they don't want it and other because it's too much of a hard sell.

Capt'n Midnight

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119905343#Comment_119905343

The Swiss are in Schengen and contribute financially to the EU, there's also free movement and other stuff that the UK have Red Lines on.

Swiss style arrangement is just another way to say cherry pick , have our cake and eat it. They only got it as a temporary introductory offer as it was expected they would soon be becoming full members. The UK isn't joining the gym. So no introductory offer.

The EU don't want multiple independent parallel negotiations. bilateral agreements between the EU and Switzerland are currently managed through approximately 20 joint committees vs "This is the deal , take it or leave it."

The UK is playing silly buggers over the NIP so get no share of the €95Bn science stuff. That's alone should clarify why the EU won't be bending over backwards to accommodate them.

NB antagonising the EU now will cost the UK goodwill and there's only a few years before the existing deal gets renegotiated. There's three years and one month left on the fishing part.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119952394#Comment_119952394

Well there is...a very big one. FG and FF's fear of SF and enabling them. Fear of the balance of power shifting and them losing out.

I think Michael's Shared Island project was an attempt to lead from the front on Unity and you see Leo shifting position on it too.

jh79

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119952399#Comment_119952399

As I said they all have their own reasons for avoiding a plan. SF fear of the economics behind a UI is obvious.

The difference is that FF/FG wont face a backlash from the public for doing nothing as it isn't a priority for the majority in Ireland.

SF will face a backlash if they push a plan when it's not wanted.

Sam Russell

As I have said before, a united Ireland cannot happen until there is a united NI.

Peace walls have spread since the GFA, not reduced. Schools are still segregated. Politics is even more divided as the parties at the extreme ends gain at the expense of those in the middle. Every advance to one side is opposed by the other - just because.

I have tried to find statistics that can be relied upon to ascertain the actual cost of the subvention to NI, but the figures do not exist. [Neither do the profit figures for Tesco(Ireland) because they are hidden in the UK figures]. Obviously there is a reason.

Some basic assumptions cannot be certain. For example, will pensioners in NI still be paid by the UK Gov? Their contributions went to the UK Gov so they should still be paid by the UK Gov but will they? Currently, the UK pays pensions to Irish people living in retirement in Ireland where the pension relates to UK employment.

What about the pensions of current public servants? Will the UK make a contribution as they come to pension age? Again, the EU pays pensions of UK personnel employed by the EU while the UK was a member.

How will the current charge to NI of British defence costs? What about the British national debt built up to finance overspending (some of which went to corrupt Tories)?

Some VAT and Corporation Tax is paid into central coffers in the UK so some companies like M&S and Tesco payments do not get assigned to NI.

The whole economy in NI is not detailed separately so it is impossible to identify the actual cost of funding NI as is, and it is also difficult to see how much unity would benefit NI economically - it is unlikely not to benefit NI.

But unity has to be an advantage both socially and economically to NI - and be seen to be advantageous by a significant majority. Neither case is apparent at the moment.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119952404#Comment_119952404

A 'plan' from a single political party is not going to cut it.

A plan/proposal from the government of a country that constitutionally aspires to a UI and in which a UI has majority support is the only game in town.

FG, FF have up to now shied away from that for the reasons stated, but as I pointed out that is changing.

This is just another poll in a voliatile situation.

Unionists seem honour bound to ensure the Protocol does not work and consequently powersharing so a lot can change over a very small timeframe.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119952408#Comment_119952408

As I have said before, a united Ireland cannot happen until there is a united NI.

Partition was designed to ensure that. Talk of reconciliation is bullshit as there was never concilation in the first place.

Look around you, Unionism feels threatened...what does it do? Deepens division and dis-unity and retreats into a suprematist shell. That will never change because of how the state has utterly failed due to it's design/origins.

jh79

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119952429#Comment_119952429

I think SF fear of putting a plan out there has really cost them. At one point unity was doing well in the polls when a hard Brexit was a possibility. If SF had the bones of a plan then they actually might of achieved it. The people of NI don't see a UI as a viable options and SF are as culpable in that as any of the other parties.

Sam Russell

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119952438#Comment_119952438

OK, so you accept deep divisions exist in NI on sectoral grounds - Unionists and Nationalists. So what can be done to reduce them, and even remove them?

SF are not the agents to achieve this - they only deepen the existing divides for their own benefit.

The lead must come from the UK Gov in Westminster which will not happen with current Tory Gov.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119952453#Comment_119952453

Now you are reading stuff into a poll that simply isn't there. Don't fret, you are not alone, Jeffrey Donalson's take is that there is 'strong support' for the Union, despite the fact it is at 50% and at an historic low.

Take the poll whatever way you want, but don't be making unsustainable claims. nobody was asked about 'viability', they were asked would they vote for a UI.

In the abscence of anything 'viable' to vote for, I would not expect the figures to be much higher.

jh79

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119952438#Comment_119952438

Doesn't absolve SF of their role in deepening divisions. Celebration of sectarian murders etc doesn't help.

It is funny that SF push people away from a UI and the DUP towards a UI though.

Charles Babbage

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119952291#Comment_119952291

People need various level of convincing and some are better informed than others.

But it is not only a question of the nature of the present ROI, there is a question on the manner of leaving of the British and what financial arrangements they will make for pensions and so on. That settlement will determine many of the financial issues afterwards.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119952459#Comment_119952459

I think you need to look at what the GFA achieved.

It convinced many many moderate Unionists that there was nothing to fear in the journey towards equality and parity of esteem.

I think a similar progressive agreemnent that respects their rights and identity in a UI will lessen the divisions over time.

jh79

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119952466#Comment_119952466

So what reason would you give for the lack of support in a UI in NI? It is very low at 27%.

While people will have their own reasons for voting a certain way, the idea that the public can't assess the relative economies and make a judgement on its viability doesn't wash.