Brexit Impact on Northern Ireland

cgcsb

Del.Monte wrote: »

But, but ...think of all the employment it would bring?

What?

Del.Monte

cgcsb wrote: »

What?

The submarine base.

Shelga

Whenever there is a referendum in NI (it does seem increasingly to be a case of when, not if, although I'd say it's at least 5 years away), I just hope that the pro-reunification side is honest about what it will entail, and that there will be very real costs to weigh up. Just like Sturgeon should be honest about an independent Scotland will mean from all angles, and Brexiters should have been honest that their ridiculous project wasn't going to be all sunlit uplands, to say the least :rolleyes: Any change to the status quo is going to bring turmoil, at least in the short to medium term.

I read that 30% of the workforce in NI is employed by the public sector, although that's from 2008 so it's hopefully lower now. It's just below 15% in RoI. So are we going to pay for their bloated public sector to continue? Just to cover up their lack of productivity in other areas and continue to kick the can down the road? How much of a tax increase are we in the Republic willing to put up with to accommodate this? How much are the long-term costs of absorbing NI going to be? How much will the EU chip in? These are all the questions I would want answering, with sufficient, realistic detail.

Of course, it's not all about economics. All of this "referendum every 7 years" thing sounds daft. Nationalists are not going to call a referendum unless they are fairly certain they will win it. Surely that's obvious.

I think there are a lot of people like me, who are in no way enthusiastic about reunification, but won't vote against it if the people of NI vote for it, and the situation is reasonably peaceful at the time. It's up to them to decide. Let's all just be honest about what it actually means.

breezy1985

FrancieBrady wrote: »

You really need to accept that the 'Northern Irish' dentity thing is not a cohesive identity. It is people from both sides moving away from their 'side' but not closer to one another.

It's a nuance everybody gets if they know the north.

I'll admit I don't know the North that well and most of my experience comes from Northern Irish in London but from what I could see a sizable amount of the NI citizens under 30 only ever seemed to identify as being Northern Irish with no mention of which side except maybe a little give away about the sport they played growing up.

I really think a lot of them don't care about sectarianism and that leaving the EU will be a big deal for this group as well as traditional right/left and liberal politics

breatheme

blanch152 wrote: »

I fully expect Sinn Fein to secure the First Minister job after the next Stormont elections. It will be painted as a success for nationalism, but I also expect it to be in the context of a further decline in the nationalist vote taken together with a deeper decline in the DUP vote. The middle ground, occupied by the Northern Ireland identity will increase further. Ultimately, that group will only vote for a united Ireland if it gives the Six Counties more autonomy than they currently have in the UK. That is not the dream peddled by Sinn Fein.

I don't think that is necessarily true, and you can't just lump all of the "middle ground Alliance voters" (generalising here) into people wanting more autonomy.


There is a difference between autonomy and influence, and you could argue the NI residents will have more influence in a UI and that might be enough to persuade these voters. Or some may indeed want more autonomy. Ultimately, I also think these people want to enjoy peace and prosperity. Brexit Britain may undermine these last two things.

Markcheese

Would there be an opportunity to move to a half way house situation . A more or less autonomous northern ireland ( hopefully still in the eu ) ,that's not exactly joined to the republic ( but more alligned than before ) and not exactly in the uk either ( but probably still being partly funded from westminster) ,
No one gets fully what they want, but hopefully less likely to terribly offend anyone ,
And if handled well heading slowly to a more united Ireland ( or even just a situation where it largely doesn't matter ,isn't an issue for the vast majority )

FrancieBrady

breezy1985 wrote: »

I'll admit I don't know the North that well and most of my experience comes from Northern Irish in London but from what I could see a sizable amount of the NI citizens under 30 only ever seemed to identify as being Northern Irish with no mention of which side except maybe a little give away about the sport they played growing up.

I really think a lot of them don't care about sectarianism and that leaving the EU will be a big deal for this group as well as traditional right/left and liberal politics

I agree, but the thing people miss, is that that doesn't bring one set identifying as Northern Irish closer to the UK and the other set closer to a UI. They are not going to coalesce together to look for an independent NI. If it is a choice between a UI or the Union they will go with what they identify with most. I.E. kind of irrelevant in a poll.

blanch152

breezy1985 wrote: »

I'll admit I don't know the North that well and most of my experience comes from Northern Irish in London but from what I could see a sizable amount of the NI citizens under 30 only ever seemed to identify as being Northern Irish with no mention of which side except maybe a little give away about the sport they played growing up.

I really think a lot of them don't care about sectarianism and that leaving the EU will be a big deal for this group as well as traditional right/left and liberal politics

That is a very difficult thing for the extremists on either side to accept.

For the republicans, it means an end to the dream of a unified socialist republic. At best, in the long-term, it means a federated state, which actually means very little in an EU context.

For the loyalists, the link to the Crown will never be the same, direct rule from London an impossible dream too.

In the middle, as the EU gets stronger, an independent Northern Ireland, member of both the Commonwealth and the EU, while developing strong integrated economic ties with the South while maintaining a distinct culture and identity becomes a real possibility. After all, countries like Malta, Cyprus, Estonia, Luxembourg are all members of the EU and smaller than Northern Ireland. Latvia is around the same size.

FrancieBrady

blanch152 wrote: »

That is a very difficult thing for the extremists on either side to accept.

For the republicans, it means an end to the dream of a unified socialist republic. At best, in the long-term, it means a federated state, which actually means very little in an EU context.

For the loyalists, the link to the Crown will never be the same, direct rule from London an impossible dream too.

In the middle, as the EU gets stronger, an independent Northern Ireland, member of both the Commonwealth and the EU, while developing strong integrated economic ties with the South while maintaining a distinct culture and identity becomes a real possibility. After all, countries like Malta, Cyprus, Estonia, Luxembourg are all members of the EU and smaller than Northern Ireland. Latvia is around the same size.

Not a single political entity has evolved nor looks like evolving looking for a independent NI, because of the reasons I gave for there being no single Northern Ireland identity and because it is meaningless as regards the constitutional question.

100 years of partition has proved without doubt that it cannot govern itself.

Isabelmaria

Just a question, who in the North, in the name of an outdated concept of nationalism, wants to give up the free NHS, much cheaper cost of life, cheap houses, cars , insurance, road tax , great transport infrastructure that is the envy of those in the midlands? i really don't know...

Wilhelm III

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blanch152

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Not a single political entity has evolved nor looks like evolving looking for a independent NI, because of the reasons I gave for there being no single Northern Ireland identity and because it is meaningless as regards the constitutional question.

100 years of partition has proved without doubt that it cannot govern itself.

100 years of partition has actually proved the opposite. It has lasted longer than East Germany, its borders are more consistent than nearly every other European State, it hasn't fallen apart like Czechoslovakia, Yugoslaiva or the Soviet Union. All in all, despite all the criticism, as a statelet, it is a relative success in that context.

irish_goat

Isabelmaria wrote: »

Just a question, who in the North, in the name of an outdated concept of nationalism, wants to give up the free NHS, much cheaper cost of life, cheap houses, cars , insurance, road tax , great transport infrastructure that is the envy of those in the midlands? i really don't know...

Lost me at "great transport infrastructure".

onrail

irish_goat wrote: »

Lost me at "great transport infrastructure".

Yep. A laughably outdated misconception.

FrancieBrady

blanch152 wrote: »

100 years of partition has actually proved the opposite. It has lasted longer than East Germany, its borders are more consistent than nearly every other European State, it hasn't fallen apart like Czechoslovakia, Yugoslaiva or the Soviet Union. All in all, despite all the criticism, as a statelet, it is a relative success in that context.

Wow. Over 3000 people would diagree if they were still alive.

Not taking the thread down this familiar rabbithole blanch. You believe what you want.

Wilhelm III

The roads are very good, to be fair. But that shouldn't raise the question 'who would want to give up this or that...?', it should raise the question 'why are the roads in the North so damned smooth, and what can we do make the Republic's roads better?'.

breezy1985

Isabelmaria wrote: »

Just a question, who in the North, in the name of an outdated concept of nationalism, wants to give up the free NHS, much cheaper cost of life, cheap houses, cars , insurance, road tax , great transport infrastructure that is the envy of those in the midlands? i really don't know...

The cheaper cost of life and all that does also come with much lower wages and dole and some parts of the UK really do feel poor and run down compared to ROI and having lived both I never felt an richer in one or the other.
The NHS is the big one and people living in the UK can't even fathom the idea that people have to pay for A&E or pay for a few nights in a hospital bed and I forgot myself just how crap it was here when I came back.
On a plus for the ROI there is the wages, the EU and I would say our education system blows there's out of the water

FrancieBrady

Wilhelm III wrote: »

The roads are very good, to be fair. But that shouldn't raise the question 'who would want to give up this or that...?', it should raise the question 'why are the roads in the North so damned smooth, and what can we do make the Republic's roads better?'.

I was sitting beside a senior NI civil servant whose department dealt with Transport, at a wedding, very interesting fella. He was saying the roads in the south used to be a daily joke with them 20 years ago but now they positively drool at the budgets for road building down south. A complete turnaround in fortunes.

breezy1985

Wilhelm III wrote: »

The roads are very good, to be fair. But that shouldn't raise the question 'who would want to give up this or that...?', it should raise the question 'why are the roads in the North so damned smooth, and what can we do make the Republic's roads better?'.

The UK pulls in more income tax out one city than we do the whole country and add to that a way higher council tax than we have. We are never going to match the UK on infrastructure spend and shouldn't really try to compare the two.
Not that it completely exonerates us and it's certainly not the fault of tax that we still don't have a motorway or bypassed towns between our 2nd and 3rd biggest city

Shelga

Wilhelm III wrote: »

The roads are very good, to be fair. But that shouldn't raise the question 'who would want to give up this or that...?', it should raise the question 'why are the roads in the North so damned smooth, and what can we do make the Republic's roads better?'.

Are you for real? The roads in the north are dire. It is estimated that £1.2bn is needed to be spent to bring roads up to standard, with rural minor roads in the worst condition: https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/12bn-hole-in-budget-needs-filled-to-bring-roads-up-to-standard-audit-report-reveals-37949820.html

Compare the M1 to the A1. The difference in standards is horrifying.

BonnieSituation

Markcheese wrote: »

Would there be an opportunity to move to a half way house situation . A more or less autonomous northern ireland ( hopefully still in the eu ) ,that's not exactly joined to the republic ( but more alligned than before ) and not exactly in the uk either ( but probably still being partly funded from westminster) ,
No one gets fully what they want, but hopefully less likely to terribly offend anyone ,
And if handled well heading slowly to a more united Ireland ( or even just a situation where it largely doesn't matter ,isn't an issue for the vast majority )

A condominium is a non-starter. It would require the GFA to be replaced. So unfortunately that's that for your uninformed idea I'm afraid.

Why would Nationalists give up the opportunity for finally achieving reunification in order to placate belligerent Unionists and Partitionists just because a UI is likely in the near future.

Such nonsense.

FrancieBrady

Shelga wrote: »

Are you for real? The roads in the north are dire. It is estimated that £1.2bn is needed to be spent to bring roads up to standard, with rural minor roads in the worst condition: https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/12bn-hole-in-budget-needs-filled-to-bring-roads-up-to-standard-audit-report-reveals-37949820.html

Compare the M1 to the A1. The difference in standards is horrifying.

Correct. We are far from perfect here but it is a myth that northern roads are better.

BonnieSituation

blanch152 wrote: »

100 years of partition has actually proved the opposite. It has lasted longer than East Germany, its borders are more consistent than nearly every other European State, it hasn't fallen apart like Czechoslovakia, Yugoslaiva or the Soviet Union. All in all, despite all the criticism, as a statelet, it is a relative success in that context.

Gas.

Is this the new talking point for Partitionists?

BonnieSituation

Wilhelm III wrote: »

The roads are very good, to be fair. But that shouldn't raise the question 'who would want to give up this or that...?', it should raise the question 'why are the roads in the North so damned smooth, and what can we do make the Republic's roads better?'.

You clearly haven't been on the A46 in a while.

The well worn "NHS and roads are amazing" tropes need to be banned at this point.

rocketspocket

Don't personally really care on the result to be honest so long as it doesn't negatively impact me or my family on either sides of the border *BUT* what i am looking most forward to is how Sinn Fein will attempt sell their unity vision to the unionist community - their loathing runs deep..

Wilhelm III

breezy1985 wrote: »

The UK pulls in more income tax out one city than we do the whole country and add to that a way higher council tax than we have. We are never going to match the UK on infrastructure spend and shouldn't really try to compare the two.
Not that it completely exonerates us and it's certainly not the fault of tax that we still don't have a motorway or bypassed towns between our 2nd and 3rd biggest city

You see... I'm going to go off topic a little here, not replying to you as such, I just happened to hit 'quote' and here we are! Just a general comment really... on tax, infrastructure - smooth roads, uniting Ireland... gombeen politicians, corruption, inefficiency, waste... you see - I think we could be SO much better, we can DO so much better, Ireland is 'grand' - but it could be 'great' - and it is my strongly held belief that ONLY a united Ireland would make us, in time - exactly that. YES it will cost us - but in a hundred years from now, when we're all long gone - this country WILL be prosperous, it will be healthy - it will function very highly, and it will be a better place for each and every citizen. It's not about us, here - today, to me... - it's about the future us. The possibilities and opportunities could be ENDLESS!

My comments are neither here nor there I suppose, I just wanted to freestyle my thoughts there, state my position on... Ireland, smooth roads, hopes and dreams - all that craic.

Everybody as you were !

Wilhelm III

BonnieSituation wrote: »

You clearly haven't been on the A46 in a while.

The well worn "NHS and roads are amazing" tropes need to be banned at this point.

Fair enough gang, I'm only going by what my car feels as soon as I cross the border - I don't know the ins and outs of the entire network. I just know my car feels the difference - I'm certainly not denying the roads are imperfect.

20silkcut

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Correct. We are far from perfect here but it is a myth that northern roads are better.

They were better when we were growing up back in the 80’s and 90’s and into the early 2000’s.
But there has been a serious turnaround in the last 15 years or so.

breezy1985

rocketspocket wrote: »

Don't personally really care on the result to be honest so long as it doesn't negatively impact me or my family on either sides of the border *BUT* what i am looking most forward to is how Sinn Fein will attempt sell their unity vision to the unionist community - their loathing runs deep..

It will probably be down to the Irish government to sell the vision to unionists as they will probably trust FF/FG a lot more than SF.
Looking at current NI constituencies all 18 could be turned into 3 seaters under Dail rules Giving them 54 TDs so a UI could someday see unionists in a coalition if anyone down south was brave enough

Pete_Cavan

A vote will only happen if the result is already a foregone conclusion and that will only be if continuing with NI is no longer an option. If Scotland vote for independence then the Union's days are numbered. If it fully splits, then there is nothing for Unionists to fight for. English nationalists will turn their backs on NI as they will see no reason to keep the show on the road and will keep the subvention for themselves. They will contribute to a "transition fund", as will the EU as the Germans will get all nostalgic about their own reunification.

The ironic thing is that all aspects of NI culture will be more recognised and respected as part of Ireland than it is as part of the UK. Most English people couldn't even tell you which side marches with the ribbons they give to beauty queens, they don't recognise it as supporting the Union. In a UI marching becomes irrelevant anyway, no point celebrating a battle when you ultimately lost the war. I suspect that once the triumphalism is removed, it won't be half as much fun anyway. The attitude amongst the general Irish public at that stage will be "have at it lads".

When the time comes, most of the obstacles of today will have faded away and the vast, vast majority of people will welcome it.

breezy1985

breezy1985 wrote: »

The cheaper cost of life and all that does also come with much lower wages and dole and some parts of the UK really do feel poor and run down compared to ROI and having lived both I never felt an richer in one or the other.
The NHS is the big one and people living in the UK can't even fathom the idea that people have to pay for A&E or pay for a few nights in a hospital bed and I forgot myself just how crap it was here when I came back.
On a plus for the ROI there is the wages, the EU and I would say our education system blows there's out of the water

Admittedly I’ve only been to the GP a handful of times in fifteen years here, but I still can’t get used to having to pay. Getting charged €12 for a course of penicillin was a shocker as well.

ancapailldorcha

20silkcut wrote: »

They were better when we were growing up back in the 80’s and 90’s and into the early 2000’s.
But there has been a serious turnaround in the last 15 years or so.

I'd be of that opinion and it'd be on this basis.

rocketspocket

Aegir wrote: »

Admittedly I’ve only been to the GP a handful of times in fifteen years here, but I still can’t get used to having to pay. Getting charged €12 for a course of penicillin was a shocker as well.

Free doctors, free prescription up north & lower tax rate and overall lower cost of living - if the argument becomes purely economical then it could be a hard sell unless a 'new ireland' adopts some of these benefits.

cgcsb

Isabelmaria wrote: »

Just a question, who in the North, in the name of an outdated concept of nationalism, wants to give up the free NHS, much cheaper cost of life, cheap houses, cars , insurance, road tax , great transport infrastructure that is the envy of those in the midlands? i really don't know...

Is this a serious post? Have you ever been to the North?

rocketspocket

cgcsb wrote: »

Is this a serious post? Have you ever been to the North?

Regarding car insurance - was paying tesco 300GBP up north, brought the car down & best quote was 800EUR (same cover & no claims)...

cgcsb

Aegir wrote: »

Admittedly I’ve only been to the GP a handful of times in fifteen years here, but I still can’t get used to having to pay. Getting charged €12 for a course of penicillin was a shocker as well.

Jeepers that's some tight pockets you have pal. Your hands must be purple.

onrail

cgcsb wrote: »

Jeepers that's some tight pockets you have pal. Your hands must be purple.

Tbf - when you're used to paying zero for something, €12 is bloody expensive.

FrancieBrady

cgcsb wrote: »

Jeepers that's some tight pockets you have pal. Your hands must be purple.

Can't understand the whole 'free' NHS stuff myself. Where does the money come from to run it?
We are all paying for our health services one way or another.

cgcsb

rocketspocket wrote: »

Regarding car insurance - was paying tesco 300GBP up north, brought the car down & best quote was 800EUR (same cover & no claims)...

Wages are about 62% higher in the Republic and cost of living is is barely 20% higher. The 'free' NHS is unusable. You'd be dead of old age waiting to see a specialist, never mind the condition you're suffering from. You can see this reflected in NI's low life expectancy and poor healthcare outcomes. Would rather put my hand in my pocket then get a 'free' service that'll kill me.

cgcsb

onrail wrote: »

Tbf - when you're used to paying zero for something, €12 is bloody expensive.

I actually wouldn't remember spending €12 yesterday. How long has he been dwelling on this? It's a life saving medication, you would probably have spent more on parking to get to the appointment.

onrail

cgcsb wrote: »

How long has he been dwelling on this?

I'm not the original poster, so roughly 4 minutes.

Looks like you need some NHS funded spectacles.

cgcsb

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Can't understand the whole 'free' NHS stuff myself. Where does the money come from to run it?
We are all paying for our health services one way or another.

Much rather the system in the South. I've been to a rapid injury clinic in Dublin once. Cost €100, was seen to in 10 mins, x-ray, bandaged and dressing done and medication sorted then home in less than an hour round trip, brilliant service. If I was in the north I would have probably died from a preventable infection waiting to see someone but at least it'd be 'free'.

onrail

cgcsb wrote: »

Much rather the system in the South. I've been to a rapid injury clinic in Dublin once. Cost €100, was seen to in 10 mins, x-ray, bandaged and dressing done and medication sorted then home in less than an hour round trip, brilliant service. If I was in the north I would have probably died from a preventable infection waiting to see someone but at least it'd be 'free'.

A couple of years back I did a number on my foot, severing an artery and nerve. Seen that day for emergency surgery. Didn't have time to think about it. My health insurers (paid through work) paid me £250 for using the NHS and not going private.

To be fair though seeing a GP for free isn't the best system. A token charge of €5 or €10 would alleviate a lot of problems.

Fionn1952

rocketspocket wrote: »

Regarding car insurance - was paying tesco 300GBP up north, brought the car down & best quote was 800EUR (same cover & no claims)...

Car insurance rates are probably lower in China too....really doesn't stand up to much scrutiny taking one thing in isolation.

My car costs more to insure and tax since I moved to the other side of the border, I don't have free at the point of service healthcare any more, most of my bills are higher......I'm still FAR better off living where I do now because my salary is almost double what I'd get paid for the same job in Belfast.

Trying to point out things that are cheaper really needs to be contextualised with the MUCH lower average income in the North.

rocketspocket

cgcsb wrote: »

Much rather the system in the South. I've been to a rapid injury clinic in Dublin once. Cost €100, was seen to in 10 mins, x-ray, bandaged and dressing done and medication sorted then home in less than an hour round trip, brilliant service. If I was in the north I would have probably died from a preventable infection waiting to see someone but at least it'd be 'free'.

I don't know your experience with the NHS but i've used it about a dozen times in while growing up & most recently, around 5 years ago, broke my wrist and was living up north- pretty much the very same story except the 100EUR (in/out x-ray & patched within 60minutes). Also, a lot of people don't have 100EUR sitting there for such an emergency

rocketspocket

Fionn1952 wrote: »

Car insurance rates are probably lower in China too....really doesn't stand up to much scrutiny taking one thing in isolation.

My car costs more to insure and tax since I moved to the other side of the border, I don't have free at the point of service healthcare any more, most of my bills are higher......I'm still FAR better off living where I do now because my salary is almost double what I'd get paid for the same job in Belfast.

Trying to point out things that are cheaper really needs to be contextualised with the MUCH lower average income in the North.

Agree 100% except belfast salaries will not raise 100% if reunification goes ahead.

cgcsb

cgcsb wrote: »

I actually wouldn't remember spending €12 yesterday. How long has he been dwelling on this? It's a life saving medication, you would probably have spent more on parking to get to the appointment.

I didn’t get prescriptions for free in England, there is a set charge, but as penicillin is piss cheap the pharmacist usually throws the prescription away and asks for three quid to cover it.

That’s what I found a shock to be honest, how can a pharmacist in England afford to do that, but one here has to charge €12. But them I guess pretty much everything is way more expensive in Ireland, you even have to pay for the ****ing school books for some reason.

Charles Babbage

rocketspocket wrote: »

Free doctors, free prescription up north & lower tax rate and overall lower cost of living - if the argument becomes purely economical then it could be a hard sell unless a 'new ireland' adopts some of these benefits.

For the salaries most people get in NI the taxes are not lower.

Median salary in NI is £28000, i.e. half the people earn less.
Deductions from this salary in NI are £5,318

Call this €31,360 then deductions (tax, PRSI and Social charge) in ROI are € 4,940, so £1000 less!

Now more taxation for everyone may be needed in a UI but it is not true that most people would pay more tax if changed over to the ROI system.
Now of course well paid single people might pay quite a bit more in the south and there are a lot more of them on these salaries in the south.

For this average person the national insurance is the difference, the government could offer to allow people continue paying the higher rate and give them free GPs.

cgcsb

onrail wrote: »

A couple of years back I did a number on my foot, severing an artery and nerve. Seen that day for emergency surgery. Didn't have time to think about it. My health insurers (paid through work) paid me £250 for using the NHS and not going private.

To be fair though seeing a GP for free isn't the best system. A token charge of €5 or €10 would alleviate a lot of problems.

The GPs in the north were always brimming with gobsheens turning up with a cold :rolleyes: a charge prevents all that messing. No doubt free gp visits will be included as part of slaintecare and there'll have to be some backtracking after the fact.

cgcsb

rocketspocket wrote: »

I don't know your experience with the NHS but i've used it about a dozen times in while growing up & most recently, around 5 years ago, broke my wrist and was living up north- pretty much the very same story except the 100EUR (in/out x-ray & patched within 60minutes). Also, a lot of people don't have 100EUR sitting there for such an emergency

My experience of it is very much 'West of the Bann', I'm told there's a significant difference.