Brexit Impact on Northern Ireland

breezy1985

cgcsb wrote: »

The GPs in the north were always brimming with gobsheens turning up with a cold :rolleyes: a charge prevents all that messing. No doubt free gp visits will be included as part of slaintecare and there'll have to be some backtracking after the fact.

Not true in my NHS surgery if you showed up with a cold or flu you were told to F off and stop infecting the rest of the waiting room. Waiting times were longer if it wasnt urgent though but at least it was free.A&E was the exact same in both countries except one charged 100 euro and the other was free and far play to the lad above and his 10 min clinic visit because that is very rare in Ireland. Medicine is also very cheap in the UK.


Paying for GPs and hospitals up front like in Ireland is very unusual in Europe and most manage without bigger wait times than Ireland

Fionn1952

rocketspocket wrote: »

Agree 100% except belfast salaries will not raise 100% if reunification goes ahead.

True, and salaries in Longford aren't as high as those in Dublin. The real question is whether the average person would be better off. Let's not even talk a 100% increase for the average person in the North.....would you give up free at the point of service healthcare for a 50% pay increase? I know I would, mostly because I did.

onrail

Fionn1952 wrote: »

Car insurance rates are probably lower in China too....really doesn't stand up to much scrutiny taking one thing in isolation.

My car costs more to insure and tax since I moved to the other side of the border, I don't have free at the point of service healthcare any more, most of my bills are higher......I'm still FAR better off living where I do now because my salary is almost double what I'd get paid for the same job in Belfast.

Trying to point out things that are cheaper really needs to be contextualised with the MUCH lower average income in the North.

All depends on circumstance really. In my case in Belfast, I earn roughly €15k gross, say 9k net less than I would in Dublin.

Rent is at very least 8k-10k less per year. I would save the guts of €300k if buying a similar house.

Bought a car this summer. Roughly 8k less than the same in ROI.
Save at least €500/year on medical and dental treatment with the NHS.

Utilities are probably similar, groceries and childcare probably 10-20% less.

Obvs there might be bigger salary advantages if I worked in a different industry, but not everyone can magically start working in big Tech.

I'll be moving down south in a couple of years because of personal ties, but if I had a choice, I'd stay up North.

rocketspocket

Fionn1952 wrote: »

True, and salaries in Longford aren't as high as those in Dublin. The real question is whether the average person would be better off. Let's not even talk a 100% increase for the average person in the North.....would you give up free at the point of service healthcare for a 50% pay increase? I know I would, mostly because I did.

Aside that argument that my employer will not put up my wages up voluntarily; if i was to have 50k in credit union savings then my worry would be that the inflation of a UI will destroy a portion of this.

Like i said earlier, i have no dog in this fight but those would be the questions that would be concerning me before voting 'yes' on any future poll - also brexit has shown me that believing in the advocation of a 'sunlit uplands' of a UI may backfire massively.

rocketspocket

onrail wrote: »

All depends on circumstance really. In my case in Belfast, I earn roughly €15k gross, say 9k net less than I would in Dublin.

Rent is at very least 8k-10k less per year. I would save the guts of €300k if buying a similar house.

Bought a car this summer. Roughly 8k less than the same in ROI.
Save at least €500/year on medical and dental treatment with the NHS.

Utilities are probably similar, groceries and childcare probably 10-20% less.

Obvs there might be bigger salary advantages if I worked in a different industry, but not everyone can magically start working in big Tech.

I'll be moving down south in a couple of years because of personal ties, but if I had a choice, I'd stay up North.

100% - Me & misses have talked about moving back up north for these reasons.. not feasible for 5 years for dependency on family down here but we feel that our quality of life would be better and our wages would go further..

Phoebas

Fionn1952 wrote: »

Car insurance rates are probably lower in China too....really doesn't stand up to much scrutiny taking one thing in isolation.

My car costs more to insure and tax since I moved to the other side of the border, I don't have free at the point of service healthcare any more, most of my bills are higher......I'm still FAR better off living where I do now because my salary is almost double what I'd get paid for the same job in Belfast.

Trying to point out things that are cheaper really needs to be contextualised with the MUCH lower average income in the North.

The context is a UI, where the things that effect car costs (motor tax rates, excise duty rates, the legal framework that insurers operate in etc) are more likely to gravitate towards what we have in the south, but the same isn't necessary true (or at least would be a much slower process) for wage rates.

murphaph

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

If there is going to be a Referendum on Reunification, then after what happened with Brexit, all of the details will be known beforehand to the voters. Details that would likely include:

• A new Flag
• A new National Anthem
• The cost to Dublin, both financially and in security terms, of taking on the 6 counties

Would enough people in the Republic vote to Reunite? Personally, I would myself but I'm not sure if a majority of the electorate would.

Before Brexit I would have likely voted against unification at this stage. I would have wanted to see broad protestant acceptance of a UI before Brexit has changed the dynamic for me. It has added a sense of urgency.

Sharing the island with a fellow EU member state with similar enough outlook was one thing. We could have slowly allowed demographics and societal changes in NI and indeed the RoI to bring about unification in an ordered and calm way.

Now I don't see a fellow EU member state or even a state I really recognise anymore. The UK (or at least its government) seems alien to me. I couldn't imagine for example, ever moving there to work now. It's a cold, foreign looking place to me now. I last visited in 2017. We spent a week in Wales and to be honest I got sick of people telling me, a foreigner and EU national, how great it would be to be shot of the EU. I have nothing much in common with these people, despite a common language.

If I was asked to vote on unification tomorrow I would vote in favour. Let English nationalists wreak havoc on their own island. The Scots can decide for themselves if they want in or out.

I don't know how many people share my sentiments but in my own family I'm not the only one who has changed position on this.

Fionn1952

Phoebas wrote: »

The context is a UI, where the things that effect car costs (motor tax rates, excise duty rates, the legal framework that insurers operate in etc) are more likely to gravitate towards what we have in the south, but the same isn't necessary true (or at least would be a much slower process) for wage rates.

That's a reasonable concern. As I said, my issue was purely with pointing out things that are cheaper or more expensive on one side or the other with no context.

I'm not for a second suggesting there are no financial concerns surrounding unification (one I hadn't considered was highlighted re: savings), though I expect the discussion in the North will be less focused on that than it would be on this side of the border.

blanch152

Fionn1952 wrote: »

True, and salaries in Longford aren't as high as those in Dublin. The real question is whether the average person would be better off. Let's not even talk a 100% increase for the average person in the North.....would you give up free at the point of service healthcare for a 50% pay increase? I know I would, mostly because I did.

Well, yes they are, for public servants.

How will we maintain a two-tier system for public servants?

Sam Russell

Fionn1952 wrote: »

That's a reasonable concern. As I said, my issue was purely with pointing out things that are cheaper or more expensive on one side or the other with no context.

I'm not for a second suggesting there are no financial concerns surrounding unification (one I hadn't considered was highlighted re: savings), though I expect the discussion in the North will be less focused on that than it would be on this side of the border.

Well, if you think that in 2015, GB£ was at 70p = €1. That would mean someone in Belfast earning £21,000 equated to a Dublin salary of €30,000. Now it equates to a salary of €23,000. The same applies to savings (and debts).

The prediction on future exchange rates appears to suggest the GB£ will go below parity over this year or next.

But the question is not about the past but about the future.

Is it likely that a UK Gov facing a vast shortage of funds because of Covid and Brexit would continue to subsidise NI to the tune of GB£10 billion a year for any length of time. They have already cut back on many EU payments that were promised to continue, but one month in, and they have back down on those promises.

Who would trust a Tory Gov to pump money into a region that has no Tory MPs? Just look where they are pumping money into and where they are cutting back.

blanch152

murphaph wrote: »

Before Brexit I would have likely voted against unification at this stage. I would have wanted to see broad protestant acceptance of a UI before Brexit has changed the dynamic for me. It has added a sense of urgency.

Sharing the island with a fellow EU member state with similar enough outlook was one thing. We could have slowly allowed demographics and societal changes in NI and indeed the RoI to bring about unification in an ordered and calm way.

Now I don't see a fellow EU member state or even a state I really recognise anymore. The UK (or at least its government) seems alien to me. I couldn't imagine for example, ever moving there to work now. It's a cold, foreign looking place to me now. I last visited in 2017. We spent a week in Wales and to be honest I got sick of people telling me, a foreigner and EU national, how great it would be to be shot of the EU. I have nothing much in common with these people, despite a common language.

If I was asked to vote on unification tomorrow I would vote in favour. Let English nationalists wreak havoc on their own island. The Scots can decide for themselves if they want in or out.

I don't know how many people share my sentiments but in my own family I'm not the only one who has changed position on this.

If you are so against the UK, why would you be in favour of merging with a part of it?

The same arguments apply, it is a different country.

Fionn1952

blanch152 wrote: »

Well, yes they are, for public servants.

How will we maintain a two-tier system for public servants?

That would've been a REALLY incisive point if my post was exclusively referring to public servants, Blanch. The average household income in Longford is lower than the average household income in Dublin. A simple fact.

I don't see a tiered approach to public service pay as the great impossibility you think it is. London weighting in the UK for example. The private sector manages it just fine. I think something like London weighting at least should be considered regardless of unification, with the rising costs of living in Dublin (and my own employment is not in any way government funded, so it isn't a case of looking for something for myself). I'd be interested in exploring the administrative costs of setting salaries for public servants on a LAU basis in the long term too.

Sam Russell wrote: »

Who would trust a Tory Gov

With regards to Ireland, I think my sentiments could be summed up pretty aptly with that fraction of a sentence.

breatheme

blanch152 wrote: »

If you are so against the UK, why would you be in favour of merging with a part of it?

The same arguments apply, it is a different country.

I think it was heavily implied that the poster you're quoting was IN Northern Ireland, so they'd be voting to merge their part of the UK with Ireland.

BonnieSituation

blanch152 wrote: »

Well, yes they are, for public servants.

How will we maintain a two-tier system for public servants?

We won't.

runawaybishop

BonnieSituation wrote: »

We won't.

Well, we already do. There are multiple tiers currently, pre 95, post 2012 etc.

BonnieSituation

runawaybishop wrote: »

Well, we already do. There are multiple tiers currently, pre 95, post 2012 etc.

As a former post-95 son of a pre-95er, who's soon to become a post-2012er, I'm more than aware of those particular distinctions.

But given what they relate to and the inference that our Partitionist friend was alluding to, my point stands.

There will always be different rights and rewards of course, but the idea that we would unify the country and say to a whole cohort of the unified public sector, "sorry you're on much shítter contracts 'cos of geography", is, and I say this mildly, rather fanciful.

blanch152

BonnieSituation wrote: »

As a former post-95 son of a pre-95er, who's soon to become a post-2012er, I'm more than aware of those particular distinctions.

But given what they relate to and the inference that our Partitionist friend was alluding to, my point stands.

There will always be different rights and rewards of course, but the idea that we would unify the country and say to a whole cohort of the unified public sector, "sorry you're on much shítter contracts 'cos of geography", is, and I say this mildly, rather fanciful.

I agree with you that public sector contracts will have to be harmonised, but who is going to pay for that, as it certainly is not a factor that the republicans have factored in.

Perhaps a five-year pay freeze in the South will do it. Try that out with Forsa and INTO.

L1011

UK has London Loading, so they couldn't really object to an ROI Loading being applied for the exact same reasons...

rocketspocket

L1011 wrote: »

UK has London Loading, so they couldn't really object to an ROI Loading being applied for the exact same reasons...

I would expect that 30-50% of the civil servant in NI will be let go what with the integration of services with the south.. that & for the one that do retain their job, you'll be saying to them 'welcome to the new ireland but your colleagues the 26 are to be paid more'

Markcheese

BonnieSituation wrote: »

A condominium is a non-starter. It would require the GFA to be replaced. So unfortunately that's that for your uninformed idea I'm afraid.

Why would Nationalists give up the opportunity for finally achieving reunification in order to placate belligerent Unionists and Partitionists just because a UI is likely in the near future.

Such nonsense.

Because if we end up with a violent beligerant large minority of unionists being forced to join the Irish state , then I ( as a nationalist) will be voting no when we vote on the same issue ,
And yes it's an uninformed position ,which was why I asked a question ...
Such arrogance. ,I'm sure it'll take you a long way, but probably not to a united Ireland ..

BonnieSituation

Markcheese wrote: »

Because if we end up with a violent beligerant large minority of unionists being forced to join the Irish state , then I ( as a nationalist) will be voting no when we vote on the same issue ,

So you agree with continuing to give Unionism a veto over the wishes of the majority?

Can you explain how someone is forcing loyalists into a UI when the principle of consent is enshrined in law and is the basis of the GFA to begin with?

A UI can only occur when a majority vote for it in BOTH jurisdictions. No one is being forced into anything.

If anti-democratic loyalists want to kick off, then nothing is gonna stop them except the full force of the law.

And yes it's an uninformed position ,which was why I asked a question ...
Such arrogance. ,I'm sure it'll take you a long way, but probably not to a united Ireland ..

Well, now you've been informed.

This pandering to belligerent Unionists needs to stop. If they had their way we'd be still in the midst of the Troubles. They always have to be dragged kicking and screaming towards the rest of us.

So perhaps you should concern yourself with the wishes of moderates and majority, rather than worry about some hypothetical spide from Carrickfergus.

liamog

BonnieSituation wrote: »

There will always be different rights and rewards of course, but the idea that we would unify the country and say to a whole cohort of the unified public sector, "sorry you're on much shítter contracts 'cos of geography", is, and I say this mildly, rather fanciful.

TUPE regulations do cover State and Semi State bodies. A civil servant moving from the employee of the NI Government/British Government to a Unitary Irish State would almost certainly be classed as a Transfer of Undertaking and as such the original pay scale would have to be maintained.

blanch152

rocketspocket wrote: »

I would expect that 30-50% of the civil servant in NI will be let go what with the integration of services with the south.. that & for the one that do retain their job, you'll be saying to them 'welcome to the new ireland but your colleagues the 26 are to be paid more'

Certainly, that is a way to increase support for a united Ireland, isn't it?

Vote for a united Ireland to either lose your job or end up on lower pay than the person doing the exact same job in Tralee.

rocketspocket

blanch152 wrote: »

Certainly, that is a way to increase support for a united Ireland, isn't it?

Vote for a united Ireland to either lose your job or end up on lower pay than the person doing the exact same job in Tralee.

As John Hume said; 'You cant eat a flag'

Sam Russell

If the UK Gov agreed to pay the current level of subvention for say five or ten years following a vote for a UI, and the EU offered a level of regional payments under its various programmes, then the short term economic issues are dealt with, so that just leaves the issue of political integration. That is all possible, and the various bodies could and likely would agree a programme.

Now, outside of economics, what issues are needing dealing with? Policing - that is straightforward. Local authorities - again straight forward in the short term, but a complete reform of LAs is needed now, so a UI would be an impetus for that.

The IDA could be tasked in drumming up FDI and enterprise initiatives to generate jobs driven growth. That could relieve some of the current lack of economic activity. Some of the current public sector employees could be enticed into better paying jobs.

I think nit picking various tax, income issues is silly, because the effect on any agreement would render many of these issues moot.

To get a UI vote to pass, the resulting position should not be overtly negative for anyone. That needs to be guaranteed - like equality of esteem.

FrancieBrady

Sam Russell wrote: »

If the UK Gov agreed to pay the current level of subvention for say five or ten years following a vote for a UI, and the EU offered a level of regional payments under its various programmes, then the short term economic issues are dealt with, so that just leaves the issue of political integration. That is all possible, and the various bodies could and likely would agree a programme.

Now, outside of economics, what issues are needing dealing with? Policing - that is straightforward. Local authorities - again straight forward in the short term, but a complete reform of LAs is needed now, so a UI would be an impetus for that.

The IDA could be tasked in drumming up FDI and enterprise initiatives to generate jobs driven growth. That could relieve some of the current lack of economic activity. Some of the current public sector employees could be enticed into better paying jobs.

I think nit picking various tax, income issues is silly, because the effect on any agreement would render many of these issues moot.

To get a UI vote to pass, the resulting position should not be overtly negative for anyone. That needs to be guaranteed - like equality of esteem.

A five year programme of rationalisation of the PS on both sides would have huge impacts too without causing a whole lot of strife. Embargo on recruitment, early retirement, redeployment, voluntary redundancy are all terms we are familiar with.
Coupled with the British (which I think is and will happen anyway) saying that this will have to take place anyway as they need to cutback.

murphaph

I wouldn't even rule out an active attempt at forcing NI out of the UK by the Tories through budget reductions and public sector redundancies or long term hiring freezes. They have totally morphed into UKIP now. They don't care about NI remaining part of the union. Scotland leaving would upset their egos but NI they couldn't care less about and it might even go down well with English nationalists, fed up of the Barnett formula.

If NI is turned on in this way by UKIP 2.0 then a UI is virtually guaranteed in short order.

Everything has changed now. Anything, no matter how crazy, is possible in Westminster.

blanch152

FrancieBrady wrote: »

A five year programme of rationalisation of the PS on both sides would have huge impacts too without causing a whole lot of strife. Embargo on recruitment, early retirement, redeployment, voluntary redundancy are all terms we are familiar with.
Coupled with the British (which I think is and will happen anyway) saying that this will have to take place anyway as they need to cutback.

Are you serious?

How many public servants vote? And their families and friends? How many of them would vote for a united Ireland to lose their jobs?

I am sure there are a handful of ideologically committed exclusionary nationalists who will die in the ditch for a united Ireland, but they would be a tiny minority.

These are real problems that are not easy to solve.

100 years of divergence can't be waved away in a week or paid for by the current British subvention.

FrancieBrady

blanch152 wrote: »

Are you serious?

How many public servants vote? And their families and friends? How many of them would vote for a united Ireland to lose their jobs?

I am sure there are a handful of ideologically committed exclusionary nationalists who will die in the ditch for a united Ireland, but they would be a tiny minority.

These are real problems that are not easy to solve.

100 years of divergence can't be waved away in a week or paid for by the current British subvention.

All it requires is honesty from the British. That the subvention cannot be maintained. They are cutting it alrwady.
The numbers polling in favour would suggest that people realise this.

Sam Russell

FrancieBrady wrote: »

All it requires is honesty from the British. That the subvention cannot be maintained. They are cutting it alrwady.
The numbers polling in favour would suggest that people realise this.

If the driving message on the side of the bus was to be sufficient to leave the EU was a subvention of GB£350 million a week, how big would the drive be to rid themselves of NI that cost GB£12 billion a year, and that is not enough.

I think a bit of austerity might change a few minds, and a lot of austerity would change a lot of minds.

FrancieBrady

Sam Russell wrote: »

If the driving message on the side of the bus was to be sufficient to leave the EU was a subvention of GB£350 million a week, how big would the drive be to rid themselves of NI that cost GB£12 billion a year, and that is not enough.

I think a bit of austerity might change a few minds, and a lot of austerity would change a lot of minds.

We had an embargo and wage freezes here, you would think I suggested something novel or unique.

For every solution blanch has a problem yet maintains he wants a UI.

FrancieBrady

Think 32 has just published a list of all the areas where we could build a new and progressive island.
1) Health Service
2) Education
3) Growing the economy/tackling poverty
4) Housing
5) Climate change
6) Pensions for public sector workers in North
7) Transport / Infrastructure improvements particularly in the West
8) Policing & Justice
9) Tackling sectarianism
10) Human Rights

If a feasible and workable plan could be constructed under these headings it would sweep up the votes of the young and progressive. Not s much the negative, unanswerable 'who's gonna pay' but 'do you want to invest in something better?'.

Bishop of hope

Sam Russell wrote: »

If the driving message on the side of the bus was to be sufficient to leave the EU was a subvention of GB£350 million a week, how big would the drive be to rid themselves of NI that cost GB£12 billion a year, and that is not enough.

I think a bit of austerity might change a few minds, and a lot of austerity would change a lot of minds.

I thought the big driver was immigration myself.
They didn't want foreigners coming in, being forced in even under EU rules, they had to take them.
They know fine well that economically they were better off in the EU or there'd be a no deal brexit.

liamog

Sam Russell wrote: »

If the driving message on the side of the bus was to be sufficient to leave the EU was a subvention of GB£350 million a week, how big would the drive be to rid themselves of NI that cost GB£12 billion a year, and that is not enough.

I think a bit of austerity might change a few minds, and a lot of austerity would change a lot of minds.

So really, those campaigning for a United Ireland should drive a bus around Great Britain pointing out that a "NI Kick Out" will give them £230 million a week for the NHS. We can call it the NIKO campaign.

FrancieBrady

liamog wrote: »

So really, those campaigning for a United Ireland should drive a bus around Great Britain pointing out that a "NI Kick Out" will give them £230 million a week for the NHS. We can call it the NIKO campaign.

I don't think it will take driving a bus.

breezy1985

liamog wrote: »

So really, those campaigning for a United Ireland should drive a bus around Great Britain pointing out that a "NI Kick Out" will give them £230 million a week for the NHS. We can call it the NIKO campaign.

People don't look at this option enough.

Forget asking unionists to vote to leave we can just get the English to vote to throw them out

liamog

breezy1985 wrote: »

People don't look at this option enough.

Forget asking unionists to vote to leave we can just get the English to vote to throw them out

Fortunately it would be against the GFA. The constitutional status of the North will only be decided by the people of this island.

breezy1985

liamog wrote: »

Fortunately it would be against the GFA. The constitutional status of the North will only be decided by the people of this island.

I know I was just joking

liamog

breezy1985 wrote: »

I know I was just joking

I just didn't want to scare any our less understanding brethren

FrancieBrady

liamog wrote: »

Fortunately it would be against the GFA. The constitutional status of the North will only be decided by the people of this island.

The English couldn't vote on Scottish Independence but their opinion certainly influenced the outcome. I think the rest of the UK will make it plain how they feel about NI, which will influence future funding and treatment.
Everything will be grist to the mill, so to speak.

Sam Russell

FrancieBrady wrote: »

The English couldn't vote on Scottish Independence but their opinion certainly influenced the outcome. I think the rest of the UK will make it plain how they feel about NI, which will influence future funding and treatment.
Everything will be grist to the mill, so to speak.

The main arguments in the Scottish Indyref were:

1. Membership of the EU. With UI, that is predetermined - NI will be in the EU as part of Ireland.

2, The currency. With a UI, the Euro will be the currency.

3. Oil revenues. There are none in NI, except for a few border prospectors. They will be put out of business.

4. Constitution and justice. In a UI, an amended constitution might be needed, but not so much. Justice is much the same system. Some laws might need to be aligned.

Obviously there are other issues. Funding would be the major one for a UI.

blanch152

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Think 32 has just published a list of all the areas where we could build a new and progressive island.
1) Health Service
2) Education
3) Growing the economy/tackling poverty
4) Housing
5) Climate change
6) Pensions for public sector workers in North
7) Transport / Infrastructure improvements particularly in the West
8) Policing & Justice
9) Tackling sectarianism
10) Human Rights

If a feasible and workable plan could be constructed under these headings it would sweep up the votes of the young and progressive. Not s much the negative, unanswerable 'who's gonna pay' but 'do you want to invest in something better?'.

Who or what are Think32?

squeekyduck

Does anyone have any idea on how much UK debt Northern Ireland would have to take on if it joined a UI? This could be used as a scare tactic against a UI, but equally, it would be useful to know how it would impact the ROI debt.

Sam Russell

squeekyduck wrote: »

Does anyone have any idea on how much UK debt Northern Ireland would have to take on if it joined a UI? This could be used as a scare tactic against a UI, but equally, it would be useful to know how it would impact the ROI debt.

The GFA does not mention any notion of a UI assuming any part of the UK debt. Now that does not mean the UK Gov will not try to bring in some threat of including such conditions, but I would expect it would be resisted.

Who pays UK pensions due to retired people in NI? Who will pay the pensions earned by tax payees while UK employees but become citizens of a UI? Will public sector employees miss out on pension rights following a vote for a UI?

Lots of similar questions need to be settled before a referendum.

Fionn1952

squeekyduck wrote: »

Does anyone have any idea on how much UK debt Northern Ireland would have to take on if it joined a UI? This could be used as a scare tactic against a UI, but equally, it would be useful to know how it would impact the ROI debt.

No one could possibly answer that. It would form part of the negotiations between the UK and Ireland on the matter, so it couldn't be answered until that negotiation happens.

Many of those arguing in favour of unification will insinuate that the UK would just decide to forgive the NI portion of their debt, many of those arguing in favour of continued partition will give inflated numbers including certain debt obligations that while currently attributed on a per capita basis across the UK couldn't by any reasonable standard be considered and carried over to NI (such as military related expenditure debts and state pensions, to which contributions have already been paid into the UK coffers).

The truth will likely be somewhere in the middle.

That being said, and I could be mistaken on this (I haven't looked at figures recently to refresh myself), but I believe the UK debt per capita is lower than that of Ireland, so even if the North carried over it's per capita national debt from the UK, the average per capita debt in Ireland would decrease.

The potentially scarier figure would be the debt to GDP or GNP ratios.

FrancieBrady

Sam Russell wrote: »

The GFA does not mention any notion of a UI assuming any part of the UK debt. Now that does not mean the UK Gov will not try to bring in some threat of including such conditions, but I would expect it would be resisted.

Who pays UK pensions due to retired people in NI? Who will pay the pensions earned by tax payees while UK employees but become citizens of a UI? Will public sector employees miss out on pension rights following a vote for a UI?

Lots of similar questions need to be settled before a referendum.

The UK will not be able to behave like that - issue threats or financial inducements. The GFA binds them to be impartial and also there is the statment, 'it is for the people of the island of Ireland to decide without outside impediment'

L1011

blanch152 wrote: »

Who or what are Think32?

Allegedly non party unification grouping. Realistically its SF trying to have something not explicitly SF.

cgcsb

squeekyduck wrote: »

Does anyone have any idea on how much UK debt Northern Ireland would have to take on if it joined a UI? This could be used as a scare tactic against a UI, but equally, it would be useful to know how it would impact the ROI debt.

2.5% of the population so maybe 2.5% of the UK debt. It's less debt per head than the ROI already has so overall the new Irish state would overall have a reduced rate of debt per head. As for debt to GDP ratio, well, that's another story.

For what it's worth, the UK will probably just right it off, the quickest and easiest option for them.

Separating Scotland and England, well that's a much more complex issue. Scotland is a lot bigger and a lot wealthier than NI. Scotland's GDP is more than half that of the RoI. NI's GDP(equivalent) is barely an eighth as large as that of the RoI.

BonnieSituation

Sam Russell wrote: »

Who pays UK pensions due to retired people in NI?

The UK

Who will pay the pensions earned by tax payees while UK employees but become citizens of a UI?

The UK

Will public sector employees miss out on pension rights following a vote for a UI?

No

blanch152

L1011 wrote: »

Allegedly non party unification grouping. Realistically its SF trying to have something not explicitly SF.

Never heard of them, never seen anything from them. Are they anything more than a back of the envelope type organisation?