UK/Ireland Zero Covid Area

ginoginelli

ceadaoin. wrote: »

New Zealand and Australia can never reopen their borders normally because covid cases will flood in. Their tourism industries are destroyed. There are people being prevented from seeing their loved ones abroad for years, families separated because some dont have permanent status. I dont think that is a success. They have backed themselves in a corner now though and have to stay with it.

Truly delusional. Nothing surprises me on here anymore.

NZ and Australia are the envy of the world now.

peasant

I think it won't be much longer before zero covid becomes a pan-European discussion point.

Germany's virus explainer in chief, Christian Drosten is already doing the ground work in starting the discussion:

In an interview with Spiegel published on Friday, the chief virologist at Berlin's Charité hospital said it would be dangerous to get rid of Covid-19 measures too early when vaccinations are still ongoing.

Drosten said no-one knows for certain how long the pandemic will last, but "we absolutely have to manage not to fly off the track". Germany must now persevere and "put on the brakes, even if they are rusty".

In view of the more contagious virus variant B.1.1.7 from Great Britain, the case numbers must now be pushed down as far as possible, the virologist said.

"It would be absolutely desirable to at least aim for zero now," he said. At the moment, there is still a "unique opportunity" to prevent the spread of this variant in Germany or at least to slow it down considerably.

https://www.thelocal.de/20210122/german-virologist-drosten-warns-of-100000-daily-covid-19-cases-if-measures-taken-away-too-early

Read the whole article, if you have the time.
It explains pretty well why zero covid is the most sensible solution.

There are also lots of (eminent) voices from other countries saying the same.
I think the public is being softend up for a Europe wide attempt at zero covid.
I think politcians are starting to row in behind those.

Once industry and finance realise that quick, sharp pain is preferable to drawn out chaos, it'll be go ..


I for one can't wait.

wes

A pan European covid strategy would be ideal, and it can remain a blueprint for what to do, if we end up with new strains (or even a new virus in the future), on how to deal with pandemics. Short term pain is far more preferable to this long drawn out pain.

If we did this last year, we would all be full opened up.

ginoginelli

ginoginelli wrote: »

Hancock and Priti Patel have both been advocating it for months. The only thing preventing it has been the ultra conservative members who dont give an iota about the human cost and only care about their own personal economic impact.

Much like certain lobby groups (vintners) and politicans (ie jim o callaghan) here.

Reminds me of british approach to irish famine.

Classical thinkers/economist's.

Goes against their principles.

peasant

The problem with pursuing zero-Covid IMO is mainly political; ie. not financial or technical. We could do it if we really wanted to.

Depending on who you ask, a zero-Covid policy either reeks of totalitarianism or socialism.
Restrictions (of personal freedoms) will have to happen and financial aid will have to be given.

So actually it reeks of both

And that is where the political problem lies...you will need both ends of the political spectrum to agree to put their difference to one side for a while and work for the greater good instead of just their own.

But I do believe the the ground movement is swelling and quite a lot of people are not as stupid as politicians believe them to be and they can see the bigger picture.

The body politics might just be persuaded ...

beggars_bush

ginoginelli wrote: »

Truly delusional. Nothing surprises me on here anymore.

NZ and Australia are the envy of the world now.

They're a long way from the rest of the world though

wes

beggars_bush wrote: »

They're a long way from the rest of the world though

The distance from Australia from Indonesia (which is densely populated), is a little less than the US distance from Europe.

ceadaoin.

ginoginelli wrote: »

Truly delusional. Nothing surprises me on here anymore.

NZ and Australia are the envy of the world now.

Facts are delusions now? Ok.

So Ireland should expel all foreigners who aren't permanent residents, stop people leaving, stop the thousands of irish people living abroad visiting their families, or moving back. Then you'll be sorted. How long will that have to remain in place to continue working? covid is endemic in most of the world at this stage. Cases are falling all over the US, most of which isn't under strict restrictions at this stage. The same thing will happen in ireland and everywhere else. Hopefully with the vaccines being rolled out coupled with immunity due to prior infections, another wave can be prevented. Its too late for a zero covid approach in most of the world.

dmn22

ceadaoin. wrote: »

New Zealand and Australia can never reopen their borders normally because covid cases will flood in. Their tourism industries are destroyed. There are people being prevented from seeing their loved ones abroad for years, families separated because some dont have permanent status. I dont think that is a success. They have backed themselves in a corner now though and have to stay with it.

One of the worst opinions on anything I’ve seen on here, and that’s saying something.

St.Spodo

It will be interesting to see does some semblance of a strategy emerge from the cabinet meeting on Tuesday. Officially, Ireland is still pursuing the "living with covid" strategy, but I think a broad political consensus is emerging that this has proven unfeasible here and in other European countries that tried it. Tragically, we had to learn this the hard way after 3.5 weeks of relative normality ended up putting 1,000 people in the morgue. Our only way out of this before population immunity in late 2021 is to go very hard at suppressing it right now and keep it out at border.

xhomelezz

peasant wrote: »

The problem with pursuing zero-Covid IMO is mainly political; ie. not financial or technical. We could do it if we really wanted to.

Depending on who you ask, a zero-Covid policy either reeks of totalitarianism or socialism.
Restrictions (of personal freedoms) will have to happen and financial aid will have to be given.

So actually it reeks of both

And that is where the political problem lies...you will need both ends of the political spectrum to agree to put their difference to one side for a while and work for the greater good instead of just their own.

But I do believe the the ground movement is swelling and quite a lot of people are not as stupid as politicians believe them to be and they can see the bigger picture.

The body politics might just be persuaded ...

We kind of do that as it is. Comparing it to totalitarianism or socialism sucks a bit.

The_Brood

peasant wrote: »

The problem with pursuing zero-Covid IMO is mainly political; ie. not financial or technical. We could do it if we really wanted to.

Depending on who you ask, a zero-Covid policy either reeks of totalitarianism or socialism.
Restrictions (of personal freedoms) will have to happen and financial aid will have to be given.

So actually it reeks of both

And that is where the political problem lies...you will need both ends of the political spectrum to agree to put their difference to one side for a while and work for the greater good instead of just their own.

But I do believe the the ground movement is swelling and quite a lot of people are not as stupid as politicians believe them to be and they can see the bigger picture.

The body politics might just be persuaded ...

Well that's it, isn't it? Meehoe and others stand before us and tell us why these lockdowns and shutdowns are absolutely necessary and no matter how much economic and social devastation they cause, it is a health necessity and we cannot do without them...fair enough...

but then an actual plan is proposed to actually effectively tackle the virus, aka zero Covid, aka exactly what the politicians should be fighting tooth and nail for under their very own argument...and you get 'now now we can't just do that, some politics are involved. Someone somewhere signed a document, you know.'

...so which is it?!

All this makes me so sick...

mandrake04

ceadaoin. wrote: »

New Zealand and Australia can never reopen their borders normally because covid cases will flood in. Their tourism industries are destroyed. There are people being prevented from seeing their loved ones abroad for years, families separated because some dont have permanent status. I dont think that is a success. They have backed themselves in a corner now though and have to stay with it.

What about when all Australian citizens are vaccinated? Is the opening of borders in Australia not similar to removing of restrictions in Ireland and a return to normality?

You talk of tourism, since Australians are holidaying at home this year tourism although not at 100% is still doing a lot better than Ireland where everything is closed and has been for most of the last year.

Businesses and hospitality are open in Australia, the Australian government is collecting tax from them and unemployment has fallen.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-21/australian-unemployment-falls-to-6-6-amid-economic-recovery

So if Ireland is relying on vaccines to break the continuous lockdown cycle then the mopping up will begin, Australia is already at that stage.

darem93

I also think it’s the lack of strategy or plan that frustrates so many people. Sure we might go into lockdown and get the numbers down to a suitable level that we can open things back up again. But how long for? How long is it before things spiral out of control again and we’re back to square one?

Loafing Oaf

darem93 wrote: »

I also think it’s the lack of strategy or plan that frustrates so many people too. Sure we might go into lockdown and get the numbers down to a suitable level that we can open things back up again. But how long for? How long is it before things spiral out of control again and we’re back to square one?

The hope would be the vaccine would have changed the game by the time wave 4 would have really started to build

Joe_ Public

mandrake04 wrote: »

What about when all Australian citizens are vaccinated? Is the opening of borders in Australia not similar to removing of restrictions in Ireland and a return to normality?

You talk of tourism, since Australians are holidaying at home this year tourism although not at 100% is still doing a lot better than Ireland where everything is closed and has been for most of the last year.

Businesses and hospitality are open in Australia, the Australian government is collecting tax from them and unemployment has fallen.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-21/australian-unemployment-falls-to-6-6-amid-economic-recovery

So if Ireland is relying on vaccines to break the continuous lockdown cycle then the mopping up will begin, Australia is already at that stage.

They're not even in that big a rush for vaccine roll out. There was a new zealand health official on with claire byrne the other morning who explained they were content to sit and wait a while to see the results in other countries and learn from them. A few weeks or however more it is won't unduly unsettle them at this stage.

peasant

xhomelezz wrote: »

We kind of do that as it is. Comparing it to totalitarianism or socialism sucks a bit.

I wasn't comparing ..I said it reeks of ...for those opposed to it.

Simple example ..the automotive industry.

Is it essential? Like food medicine, power, water?
No it isn't ...yet all over Europe hundreds of thousands go to work in automotive sector factories daily. It should be included in a zero-Covid lockdown. But closing an entire industry would be a drastic measure and very much opposed (and could only be done via quasi-totalitarian orders from the top). At the same time, those hundreds of thousands would need financial aid ...and that could only be be done by quasi-socialistic measures ...that's what I meant.

But it could be done. and i bet you that in the long run it would be cheaper than endless rolling lockdowns for the next few years. Never mind that it would be very effective.

But it takes a concerted effort from the EU because of the complicated supply chains..no country on their own would be the one that ends up getting blamed for shutting others down.

The same could be said for many other industries that are currently still active

mandrake04

Joe_ Public wrote: »

They're not even in that big a rush for vaccine roll out. There was a new zealand health official on with claire byrne the other morning who explained they were content to sit and wait a while to see the results in other countries and learn from them. A few weeks or however more it is won't unduly unsettle them at this stage.

Just sitting back buying time.

Australia are on track to have the population vaccinated by September/October, not sure about NZ.

By Christmas they will be looking how UK, US and Europe are holding up restrictions wise. If it all goes to sh!t in Europe again with people becoming sick and back to same old lockdowns not able to leave their house etc then they won’t open the borders. If covid just becomes endemic and controlled by vaccines much like the flu then they will open the border to the vaccinated as there’s nothing to fear.

Leo official govt spokeperson wheeled out today to open the door to hotel quarantines.

What we learned:

Starting out on small basis of quarantining in hotels with agreement from covid committee today, to learn experience of how to do it on possibly larger scale in future.

Two island approach given a warm reception by Leo.

Lets see how tomorrow goes in UK...

PhoneMain

Does anyone know what the story would be with haulage? Would they have to quarantine?

meeeeh

No unless you want it to go bankrupt.

PhoneMain

meeeeh wrote: »

No unless you want it to go bankrupt.

So how would we manage those lorries driving across the country? Would they not just be reseeding Covid again?

Loafing Oaf

PhoneMain wrote: »

So how would we manage those lorries driving across the country? Would they not just be reseeding Covid again?

Presumably those guys can do their job with a minimum of social contact. I'd imagine a lot of them prefer it that way...

corcaigh07

Is everyone forgetting we are part of the EU, the UK won't agree to it (and are further along with vaccinations), and it's late January 2021?

Zero Covid approach is moronic at this stage.

PhoneMain

corcaigh07 wrote: »

Is everyone forgetting we are part of the EU, the UK won't agree to it (and are further along with vaccinations), and it's late January 2020?

Zero Covid approach is moronic at this stage.

I agree with you. I think that when there's a sign of things getting back together, the UK is going to open up as soon as they can! Given the unionists will be bricking it about a united ireland (esp after the poll that came out the weekend, they're not going to do anything to increase the chances of a UI). we cant man the border since theres 300 roads crossing it and I'd imagine that any checkpoint there is going to be a target for hassle makers. Imagine the british army manning the border, that'd be attacked inside a day! I'd imagine there'd be serious legal ramifications as well if we were allowing people in from a non EU UK and not from an EU France or Germany.
France, Spain, Portugal etc will want to be getting tourism going again so they will be putting pressure on to open up in the summer.
Also, providing the vaccinations are going ok in April/May, the political and public pressure to start opening up is going to be massive, esp if hospital numbes are normalising and there's a hint that Covid could be seasonal.

corcaigh07

Kaiden Kind Circle wrote: »

Moronic in comparison to yo-yoing for the next 10 months?

Moronic as in it's impossible to achieve and 2 months or so before the most vulnerable are vaccinated.

corcaigh07

corcaigh07 wrote: »

Moronic as in it's impossible to achieve and 2 months or so before the most vulnerable are vaccinated.

Its not about perfection. Its about reducing spread effectively to allow society and the economy function. Austrailia south korea and japan have done a much better job than us and "living with virus". With SA variant evading vaccines better your approach is soo 2020. Move with the times, the plates in europe have moved in last few weeks...

corcaigh07

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Its not about perfection. Its about reducing spread effectively to allow society and the economy function. Austrailia south korea and japan have done a much better job than us.

It actually does need to be near perfect if you want the benefits of zero Covid like Australia and NZ. Even at level 5, there is too much activity in and out of Ireland to achieve it. That's ignoring the obvious problems having a land border with the UK and being Europeans.

quokula

Are there any actual stats about what effect closing the airports would have? I would imagine a tiny fraction of one percent of current infections are coming from there given that the virus is widespread in the community and there is practically no travel occurring anyway other than essential travel that can't be curtailed without leading to shortages of vital supplies.

If it was a year ago, and we were an isolated country in the middle of the Pacific, and we didn't have a land border with Northern Ireland, then sure, it would probably make a big difference. But now? None at all. There's probably a hundred other things you could close first that would have a bigger impact on infection levels.

quokula

quokula wrote: »

Are there any actual stats about what effect closing the airports would have? I would imagine a tiny fraction of one percent of current infections are coming from there given that the virus is widespread in the community and there is practically no travel occurring anyway other than essential travel that can't be curtailed without leading to shortages of vital supplies.

If it was a year ago, and we were an isolated country in the middle of the Pacific, and we didn't have a land border with Northern Ireland, then sure, it would probably make a big difference. But now? None at all. There's probably a hundred other things you could close first that would have a bigger impact on infection levels.

Your looking in the short term. Weve done 3 lockdowns and heavy restrictions. A medium term solution is zero covid until vaccinations treatments etc come to aid us better. Airlines are f***** under zero covid but they f***** now anyway. Zero covid is tough but so is being told to stay in your house indefinitely. Zero covid is least worst outcome for all under every metric.