Covid 19 Part XXXII-215,743 ROI (4,137 deaths)111,166 NI (2,036 deaths)(22/02)Read OP

Sanjuro

amandstu wrote: »

When I look at the global figures for the daily 7 day moving average for infections it is showing a fairly steep decline over the past 3 weeks.

Can we read anything into that?

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

Something to do with Jupiter and Pluto according to something I read here yesterday.

MerlinSouthDub

From the hub, there are 1367 in hospital this morning. The NPHET projection was that we would have between 800 and 1300 in hospital at end of February. We will be below 1300 anyway, and we might get below 800 also if trends continue. Mind you, 800 is still a lot.

niallo27

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

From the hub, there are 1367 in hospital this morning. The NPHET projection was that we would have between 800 and 1300 in hospital at end of February. We will be below 1300 anyway, and we might get below 800 also if trends continue. Mind you, 800 is still a lot.

Depends if Covid is the main reason they are in hospital, nobody has a clue.

OwenM

Goldengirl wrote: »

What reality !
This virus has mutated to be more transmissible,and the SA variant has made many young people very seriously sick wherever it becomes prevalent .
Older vulnerable population vaccinated leaves younger hosts for the virus .
This is why the Spanish Flu is thought to have gone through so many young people and killed them .
The older population had been exposed to an earlier variant called the Russian Flu so had some immunity when the Spanish variant hit .
This is not over until the vast majority of people , young and old , have some immunity , either by vaccination or surviving infection , and the former is preferable because the latter will take a lot longer and has too much risk for individuals involved .
Wishing for something does not make it a reality .

The stuff you state about Russian flu is mostly speculation, their is no data to support it.

The game does change though once about 1 million people are vaccinated according to the HSE schedule, deaths and hospitalisations will fall dramatically and we will open up.

Level 2 by July is my guess, there have been several media reports about the AstraZeneca vaccine suppressing transmission by 66% - if this is generally true then I'd put money on it.

The_Brood

One major fact that has been totally lost is that when all this began, the reason for the lockdowns was that hospitals were being overwhelmed and there was not enough capacity for new patients.

That is how these lockdowns were explained, and how it was answered why we were closing down the world for Covid but not banning cars to prevent traffic deaths etc. The whole and entire argument was a matter of capacity.

A year later, and absolutely nothing has been done, in Europe at least, to address the hospital capacity issue. There is no massive wide scale hospital building initiative. Nothing to suggest immediate desperate mesures to increase capacity so that the world can live again. This talking point has in fact entirely disapppeared.

So the question remains. If lockdowns are due to capacity issues, why are there no insane amounts of new hospitals being built across Ireland and across Europe?

Is it simply that a lot of people just arent that bothered by these lockdowns?

CIARAN_BOYLE

The_Brood wrote: »

One major fact that has been totally lost is that when all this began, the reason for the lockdowns was that hospitals were being overwhelmed and there was not enough capacity for new patients.

That is how these lockdowns were explained, and how it was answered why we were closing down the world for Covid but not banning cars to prevent traffic deaths etc. The whole and entire argument was a matter of capacity.

A year later, and absolutely nothing has been done, in Europe at least, to address the hospital capacity issue. There is no massive wide scale hospital building initiative. Nothing to suggest immediate desperate mesures to increase capacity so that the world can live again. This talking point has in fact entirely disapppeared.

So the question remains. If lockdowns are due to capacity issues, why are there no insane amounts of new hospitals being built across Ireland and across Europe?

Is it simply that a lot of people just arent that bothered by these lockdowns?

Capacity is more down to staff numbers than number of hospitals.

Now I can't tell if its the case that there isn't the staff or if there's been a choice not to expand staff numbers.

caveat emptor

niallo27 wrote: »

For some people it won't, just reading tonight, they are terrified of every different variant. I do worry for these people as I think they will find it hard to adapt when this is over.

who's terrified? Why are you worried for these imaginary people? Best to worry about the here and now. I would suggest worrying about how schools will go back safely when young people won't be vaccinated. Or maybe worry about normal hospital appointments resuming so there isn't massive pent up demand for cancer screening etc.

If you are still looking for things to worry about then maybe worry about the next variant which is able to re-enter here in 6 months time plus which is able to evade the vaccine sufficiently to cause problems for hospitals, morbidity and mortality.

Best to live day to day and not worry too much though. Most people wouldn't have made it had they contemplated the possibility that we would still be in this mess in February 2021. Equally it could get quite hairy if we contemplate the fact that this time next year we'll be having the same debate.

The_Brood

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

Capacity is more down to staff numbers than number of hospitals.

Now I can't tell if its the case that there isn't the staff or if there's been a choice not to expand staff numbers.

Not enough bed space in Ireland. Either way, whether there is staff, building, bed etc shortages that cause the world to be shut down, you'd think there would be an absolutely insane initiative to increase all that. Pretty much drop everything else and focus on increasing capacity, war time desperation mentality. Again, literally the entire world was shut down for this reason, so you would expect the biggest measures you could possibly imagine to increase capacity. And 100% such desperation has not be seen. We just continue endless lockdowns.

zuutroy

Because no matter how much capacity you add, exponential growth will eat it within days.

Turtwig

The_Brood wrote: »

One major fact that has been totally lost is that when all this began, the reason for the lockdowns was that hospitals were being overwhelmed and there was not enough capacity for new patients.

That is how these lockdowns were explained, and how it was answered why we were closing down the world for Covid but not banning cars to prevent traffic deaths etc. The whole and entire argument was a matter of capacity.

A year later, and absolutely nothing has been done, in Europe at least, to address the hospital capacity issue. There is no massive wide scale hospital building initiative. Nothing to suggest immediate desperate mesures to increase capacity so that the world can live again. This talking point has in fact entirely disapppeared.

So the question remains. If lockdowns are due to capacity issues, why are there no insane amounts of new hospitals being built across Ireland and across Europe?

Is it simply that a lot of people just arent that bothered by these lockdowns?

I think you really need to go back 9 months and reundestand the argument. There's so many misconceptions in your post it's impossible to know where to begin.

Each time or resource a hospital spends treating a covid patient is time they can't treat or resource another non covid patient. If the idea is to let covid explode in hospitals and increase their capacity to absorb this explosion like a sponge then you're going to have a mess of serious illness, death and burnt out traumatised staff. Not just exclusively from covid either.

The_Brood

Turtwig wrote: »

I think you really need to go back 9 months and reundestand the argument. There's so many misconceptions in your post it's impossible to know where to begin.

Each time or resource a hospital spends treating a covid patient is time they can't treat or resource another non covid patient. If the idea is to let covid explode in hospitals and increase their capacity to absorb this explosion like a sponge then you're going to have a mess of serious illness, death and burnt out traumatised staff. Not just exclusively from covid either.

Why would covid be exploding in hospitals? Increasing capacity is not instead of lockdowns - I've never suggested otherwise. The lockdowns decrease the covid numbers, but then increased capacity would ensure hospitals can better treat all patients, which also further decreases covid spread, brings us closer to defeating the virus. However, capacity has not been increased. Not by any substantial numbers. Lockdowns are the only thing being relied upon. That is completely contradictory to logic and the reasoning presented.

fits

The_Brood wrote: »

One major fact that has been totally lost is that when all this began, the reason for the lockdowns was that hospitals were being overwhelmed and there was not enough capacity for new patients.

That is how these lockdowns were explained, and how it was answered why we were closing down the world for Covid but not banning cars to prevent traffic deaths etc. The whole and entire argument was a matter of capacity.

A year later, and absolutely nothing has been done, in Europe at least, to address the hospital capacity issue. There is no massive wide scale hospital building initiative. Nothing to suggest immediate desperate mesures to increase capacity so that the world can live again. This talking point has in fact entirely disapppeared.

So the question remains. If lockdowns are due to capacity issues, why are there no insane amounts of new hospitals being built across Ireland and across Europe?

Is it simply that a lot of people just arent that bothered by these lockdowns?

Should we be building hospitals with single rooms built for isolation and infection control? Should we be investing in that now? I can’t really see an end to covid. Sure we will get to a stage where same restrictions won’t be necessary but this disease isn’t going anywhere.

one armed dwarf

What kind of program would be needed to build hospitals that can keep capacity with hospitalisation numbers that scale exponentially? Can we also scale hospital capacity exponentially?

To me that's the point that gets greatly misunderstood or forgotten. The growth rate without restrictions would quickly outpace any effort we would make to improve our ability to respond to it, by orders of magnitude.

fits

one armed dwarf wrote: »

What kind of program would be needed to build hospitals that can keep capacity with hospitalisation numbers that scale exponentially? Can we also scale hospital capacity exponentially?

To me that's the point that gets greatly misunderstood or forgotten. The growth rate without restrictions would quickly outpace any effort we would make to improve our ability to respond to it, by orders of magnitude.

It’s not necessarily about capacity but proper infection control. Our current hospitals don’t seem to be fit for purpose. Eg patients sharing wards, one gets infected and everyone catches it. Wards don’t seem to be fit for purpose anymore.

one armed dwarf

fits wrote: »

It’s not necessarily about capacity but proper infection control. Our current hospitals don’t seem to be fit for purpose. Eg patients sharing wards, one gets infected and everyone catches it. Wards don’t seem to be fit for purpose anymore.

Yeah that's fair.

podgeandrodge

Sorry if already posted, but what's wrong with posting good news again!


"The vaccine developed by the University of Oxford and AstraZeneca not only protects people from serious illness and death but also substantially slows the transmission of the virus, according to a new study — a finding that underscores the importance of mass vaccination as a path out of the pandemic.

The study by researchers at the University of Oxford is the first to document evidence that any coronavirus vaccine can reduce transmission of the virus.

Researchers measured the impact on transmission by swabbing participants every week seeking to detect signs of the virus. If there is no virus present, even if someone is infected, it cannot be spread. And they found a 67 percent reduction in positive swabs among those vaccinated.

The results, detailed by Oxford and AstraZeneca researchers in a manuscript that has not been peer-reviewed, found that the vaccine could cut transmission by nearly two-thirds."



https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/03/us/astrazeneca-coronavirus-vaccine.html

Cluedo Monopoly

Cluedo Monopoly wrote: »

The key metric is deaths by date-of-death. There is a lag on that data but the graph is shown near the bottom of this link (thanks to seamus for sharing)

https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/coronavirus/novelcoronavirus/surveillance/epidemiologyofcovid-19inirelandweeklyreports/

It is currently showing a peak on 18-Jan but we wont really know until Week 4 data comes out tomorrow or Thursday.

Week 4 data just out for 'deaths by date-of-death' graph.

The current peak is 18-Jan and 21-Jan (55 deaths) but I believe 27-Jan may exceed it when the Week 5 data is released.

OwenM

podgeandrodge wrote: »

Sorry if already posted, but what's wrong with posting good news again!


"The vaccine developed by the University of Oxford and AstraZeneca not only protects people from serious illness and death but also substantially slows the transmission of the virus, according to a new study — a finding that underscores the importance of mass vaccination as a path out of the pandemic.

The study by researchers at the University of Oxford is the first to document evidence that any coronavirus vaccine can reduce transmission of the virus.

Researchers measured the impact on transmission by swabbing participants every week seeking to detect signs of the virus. If there is no virus present, even if someone is infected, it cannot be spread. And they found a 67 percent reduction in positive swabs among those vaccinated.

The results, detailed by Oxford and AstraZeneca researchers in a manuscript that has not been peer-reviewed, found that the vaccine could cut transmission by nearly two-thirds."



https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/03/us/astrazeneca-coronavirus-vaccine.html

If this is verified and holds true for other vaccines then masks gone and pubs fully open by July. Of course the worry warts and shroud wavers will grumble and cry but I don't care.

PowerToWait

OwenM wrote: »

If this is verified and holds true for other vaccines then masks gone and pubs fully open by July. Of course the worry warts and shroud wavers will grumble and cry but I don't care.

Opening the pubs is overwhelmingly the most important thing to make happen, absolutely.

pc7

As bad as this sh1te is, thank god we live in a time with the knowledge and skills to develop vaccines (especially so quick). I dread to think how bad our head space would be if we didn't have vaccines lined up.

DOCARCH

pc7 wrote: »

As bad as this sh1te is, thank god we live in a time with the knowledge and skills to develop vaccines (especially so quick). I dread to think how bad our head space would be if we didn't have vaccines lined up.

Indeed.

Watched a documentary about the 1918 flu pandemic and at that time they did not know about viruses (...so no chance of a vaccine!).

They knew how the flu was spread (coughing, etc.) and how to limit spread (masks, etc.) but it was assumed it was bacteria.

copeyhagen

DOCARCH wrote: »

Indeed.

Watched a documentary about the 1918 flu pandemic and at that time they did not know about viruses (...so no chance of a vaccine!).

They knew how the flu was spread (coughing, etc.) and how to limit spread (masks, etc.) but it was assumed it was bacteria.

were the pubs open?

niallo27

podgeandrodge wrote: »

Sorry if already posted, but what's wrong with posting good news again!


"The vaccine developed by the University of Oxford and AstraZeneca not only protects people from serious illness and death but also substantially slows the transmission of the virus, according to a new study — a finding that underscores the importance of mass vaccination as a path out of the pandemic.

The study by researchers at the University of Oxford is the first to document evidence that any coronavirus vaccine can reduce transmission of the virus.

Researchers measured the impact on transmission by swabbing participants every week seeking to detect signs of the virus. If there is no virus present, even if someone is infected, it cannot be spread. And they found a 67 percent reduction in positive swabs among those vaccinated.

The results, detailed by Oxford and AstraZeneca researchers in a manuscript that has not been peer-reviewed, found that the vaccine could cut transmission by nearly two-thirds."



https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/03/us/astrazeneca-coronavirus-vaccine.html

This is the wrong thread for good news.

frozen3

DOCARCH wrote: »

Indeed.

Watched a documentary about the 1918 flu pandemic and at that time they did not know about viruses (...so no chance of a vaccine!).

They knew how the flu was spread (coughing, etc.) and how to limit spread (masks, etc.) but it was assumed it was bacteria.

Sorry to be blunt but Covid would have been a non issue then

The people it affects, the 65 years + would have all been dead anyway

1918 was the opposite, affected the young

Psychedelic Hedgehog

niallo27 wrote: »

This is the wrong thread for good news.

I would respectfully state that we need all the good news we can get.

DOCARCH

frozen3 wrote: »

1918 was the opposite, affected the young

Mainly people mid/late teens to mid/late 40s.

I was not trying to compare the pandemics. All I was doing was pointing out that at least we now have a very good/far better understanding about what we are dealing with.

copeyhagen

copeyhagen wrote: »

were the pubs open?

They were open during 1968 when the Hong Kong flu is estimated to have killed 80000 people in the UK. Difference is that there was no constant media intrusion, social or otherwise, into our lives, and so people just got on with things

frozen3

DOCARCH wrote: »

Mainly people mid/late teens to mid/late 40s.

I was not trying to compare the pandemics. All I was doing was pointing out that at least we now have a very good/far better understanding about what we are dealing with.

We do but we have that issue because we live too long

Which brings all those problems

ednwireland

copeyhagen wrote: »

were the pubs open?

looks like it
https://www.morningadvertiser.co.uk/Article/2020/05/05/How-did-we-cope-in-the-past

Loafing Oaf

Deleted User wrote: »

so people just got on with things

Apart from the tens of thousands who had died...