Covid 19 Part XXXII-215,743 ROI (4,137 deaths)111,166 NI (2,036 deaths)(22/02)Read OP

KrustyUCC

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Yup was thinking the same myself. He would be in essence suggesting natural R of 0.2, thats just pure nonsense or wishful thinking.

Yup six days ago R number between 0.4 and 0.7

Martins 0.5 from the variant is him trying to cover his backside for a slow reopening imo

Turtwig

I'd imagine Martin was told the r number would be higher than the previous r number this time 6 months ago for the exact same set of social distancing and restrictions. He may even have conveyed this correctly to his parliamentary party. Gavan's reporting of it may have obfuscated the issue. Or Martin may have garbled it.

Nevertheless, if the UK analysis is reliable the B.1.1.7 variant increases transmissiblity and that naturally pushes up the r number in less restrictrive settings. Suggesting schools, construction may not work out the same as they did last year. In other words, reopening these could push up R more than than them being open six months ago would have. That's what I imagine NPHET briefed him on.

stephenjmcd

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Yup was thinking the same myself. He would be in essence suggesting natural R of 0.2, thats just pure nonsense or wishful thinking.

In fairness he might be suggesting it adds 0.5 to the unmitigated R number. Severe restrictions would reduce the R for different variants but the 0.5 gap wouldn't be maintained under harsh restrictions. The gap would edge closer as restrictions increase and the R number lowers.

KrustyUCC

Both Varadkar and Martin on about cases plateauing

Also seems most we can look forward to in March is schools and construction open

Maybe level 4

Level 4 is stay in own county but I doubt they would allow that

https://m.independent.ie/news/tanais...Cjf_l_levNcr68

frozen3

KrustyUCC wrote: »

Both Varadkar and Martin on about cases plateauing

https://m.independent.ie/news/tanais...Cjf_l_levNcr68

They'd infuriate you wouldn't they

We are testing close contacts again and no symptoms

Eejits shouldnt be comparing

KrustyUCC

frozen3 wrote: »

They'd infuriate you wouldn't they

We are testing close contacts again and no symptoms

Eejits shouldnt be comparing

They're definitely killing any expectations people have for the year and downplaying any positives

DraftDodger

KrustyUCC wrote: »

They're definitely killing any expectations people have for the year and downplaying any positives

They are rightly being realistic

KrustyUCC

DraftDodger wrote: »

They are rightly being realistic

Fine you call it realistic

There's downplaying expectations and not giving people anything good to look forward to

Depressing every time they speak

They'll get away with slow slow up to Easter

After 4 months of restrictions the pressure will start to come on them

People will start getting sick of not seeing friends, family, partners and having zero social outlets

Del Griffith

DraftDodger wrote: »

They are rightly being realistic

They're showing that they have no exit plan whatsoever and that they're too politically cowardly to consider getting the country up and running again.

Its pathetic. Almost guarantee most of Europe and the UK will be either normal or well on the way to normal this summer. Only Feb and Ireland already talking about 2022. Pathetic.

Just Saying

Deleted User wrote: »

45-minute boring Nolan lecture with self-assessment questions on the Maynooth student portal.

I'm sure another of those much appreciated e mails will rectify that.

niallo27

Jesus lads I'm missing a big of socialising, I seem to have no existence lately, work all day, see nobody in the evening or the weekend. It's getting a bit overwhelming tbh, feels like no way out. Bit of sport keeping me going, what's the point anymore.

eigrod

Hospitalisations down to 1,300. ICU down to 198.

https://www.hse.ie/eng/services/news/newsfeatures/covid19-updates/covid-19-daily-operations-update-03-february-2021.pdf

KrustyUCC

eigrod wrote: »

Hospitalisations down to 1,300. ICU down to 198.

https://www.hse.ie/eng/services/news/newsfeatures/covid19-updates/covid-19-daily-operations-update-03-february-2021.pdf

Great stuff

DraftDodger

niallo27 wrote: »

Jesus lads I'm missing a big of socialising, I seem to have no existence lately, work all day, see nobody in the evening or the weekend. It's getting a bit overwhelming tbh, feels like no way out. Bit of sport keeping me going, what's the point anymore.

Yeah it ain't easy but take solace in the fact you are playing your part.

optogirl

niallo27 wrote: »

Jesus lads I'm missing a big of socialising, I seem to have no existence lately, work all day, see nobody in the evening or the weekend. It's getting a bit overwhelming tbh, feels like no way out. Bit of sport keeping me going, what's the point anymore.

It's very hard this time around. At least Spring is incoming. Try to reduce the amount of Covid related stuff you read/watch (yes I do realise I'm in a Covid thread). Keep the head. Allowing it to dampen your spirits does nobody any good especially yourself. I feel very trapped at the moment too but life will get better and soon.

niallo27

optogirl wrote: »

It's very hard this time around. At least Spring is incoming. Try to reduce the amount of Covid related stuff you read/watch (yes I do realise I'm in a Covid thread). Keep the head. Allowing it to dampen your spirits does nobody any good especially yourself. I feel very trapped at the moment too but life will get better and soon.

I don't know, last March seems an eternity away and if we are being realistic it's going be near the end of year before any bit of normality. I'm just a bit low tonight.

vienne86

niallo27 wrote: »

Jesus lads I'm missing a big of socialising, I seem to have no existence lately, work all day, see nobody in the evening or the weekend. It's getting a bit overwhelming tbh, feels like no way out. Bit of sport keeping me going, what's the point anymore.

It's really hard going, and it just seems endless. I'm retired, but live on my own, so hardly get to talk to anyone now.....I'm bubbled with someone, but we decided to cut down on our meetings .....'to do our bit'. Definitely time to cut down on media stuff on this, and focus on the approach of spring and the vaccine getting us out of this hole eventually. And I too would be lost without the sport on TV. You're doing well, and you're doing the right thing.

Happydays2020

niallo27 wrote: »

I don't know, last March seems an eternity away and if we are being realistic it's going be near the end of year before any bit of normality. I'm just a bit low tonight.

You have played a stormer here with bringing a realism and a general optimism. January is gone. The virus is under control. Brighter evenings. Vaccinations on the way. While Tony and co want to keep us down, the narrative in the next few weeks will start to shift. And if need be, meet a friend outside somewhere and have a beer and a takeaway.

XsApollo

Yup sick of it myself, this time is worse and I like my peace and quiet and I would consider myself fairly hardy to emotional stuff or issues the best of times.
I can only imagine how many people are fairing a lot worse.
There is a massive cohort ( I got that word off some ****e government communication ) of people in this country that are getting ignored.
Health issues , mental health issues , jobs , lively hoods, homes, mortgages.

And there is a lot of stuff that doesn’t bare thinking about.

Such as Kids locked in homes in not great environments where issues can sometimes be picked up in schools who now have no outlet of escape, the list goes on and on.
If 20-40 year old adults feel trapped or sick of it , imagine how elderly or kids in certain environments are feeling.

The language from government is depressing, it’s ridiculous to be honest.
They are protecting one thing and not giving a sh*te about the rest.
Can’t lockdown forever , at the end of day I think everybody in the world knows the risk, vulnerable people can protect themselves by doing what the whole country is doing now, except the whole country doesn’t need to be doing it.

mcburns07

Interesting segment on the Tonight Show about the lack of emphasis on mental health, boredom and a pointlessness of life leading to destructive behaviours and dark places.

marno21

Predictions 2 weeks ago for hospital numbers at the end of Feb were 800-1300. Looks like we should be at the lower end of that bracket with declining case numbers, declining community transmission etc.

Jinglejangle69

mcburns07 wrote: »

Interesting segment on the Tonight Show about the lack of emphasis on mental health, boredom and a pointlessness of life leading to destructive behaviours and dark places.

Great other points are being put forward about this while lockdown.

niallo27

marno21 wrote: »

Predictions 2 weeks ago for hospital numbers at the end of Feb were 800-1300. Looks like we should be at the lower end of that bracket with declining case numbers, declining community transmission etc.

Yes but how do we handle it. Genuine question how do we handle if things are a lot better than we expected.

Widdensushi

niallo27 wrote: »

Yes but how do we handle it. Genuine question how do we handle if things are a lot better than we expected.

Exactly why opening dates etc cannot be definite, once the politicians announced them earlier is not possible, only later.

Ficheall

marno21 wrote: »

Where on earth did he get this from?

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1357059151281745921?s=21

The R0 at the minute in Ireland is around 0.5, in total.

Is it possible that the new variant has an R 0.5 higher than the original, and that he unsurprisingly garbled the message?
As in, if CovidA has R of X and CovidB has R of x+0.5, but CovidB is present in much smaller numbers, then overall Covid's R will only be slightly above CovidA's.

Jinglejangle69

If we open schools etc again we need to realise it won't be a repeat of the case numbers we saw after Xmas.

Xmas was a whole different kettle of fish for obvious reasons with the country near fully open and a huge amount of mixing that happens once a year.

Schools, outdoor sports, retail etc need to be opened now.

This is gone full ridiculous at this stage.

podgeandrodge

Happydays2020 wrote: »

You have played a stormer here with bringing a realism and a general optimism. January is gone. The virus is under control. Brighter evenings. Vaccinations on the way. While Tony and co want to keep us down, the narrative in the next few weeks will start to shift. And if need be, meet a friend outside somewhere and have a beer and a takeaway.

You wouldn't think it to listen to Govt. though.

Remember, nearly a year ago, it was about flattening the curve? To 'live with covid' iirc? Now they aren't telling anyone what the goal is. Is it stamping out hospitalisations? Stamping out all deaths? News today says Astra vaccine even stops transmission effectively. All the other vaccines coming on stream. Yet we can't even get a sense that it will be alright by the 2nd half of the year. Why not!

Ficheall

podgeandrodge wrote: »

You wouldn't think it to listen to Govt. though.

Remember, nearly a year ago, it was about flattening the curve? To 'live with covid' iirc? Now they aren't telling anyone what the goal is. Is it stamping out hospitalisations? Stamping out all deaths? News today says Astra vaccine even stops transmission effectively. All the other vaccines coming on stream. Yet we can't even get a sense that it will be alright by the 2nd half of the year. Why not!

I'm pretty sure flattening the curve at the current ~thousand cases a day isn't what anyone wants.

podgeandrodge

Ficheall wrote: »

I'm pretty sure flattening the curve at the current ~thousand cases a day isn't what anyone wants.

Who said it was?

Widdensushi

Ficheall wrote: »

I'm pretty sure flattening the curve at the current ~thousand cases a day isn't what anyone wants.

No, but a thousand cases a day being found, when it looks like we were at 6k a day found and 10k not found a month ago is serious progress. People need something positive to look forward to, it was the vaccine but that is stumbling at the moment.