Covid 19 Part XXXII-215,743 ROI (4,137 deaths)111,166 NI (2,036 deaths)(22/02)Read OP

MerlinSouthDub

caveat emptor wrote: »

Every country has had the virus. Not every country was the worst in the world in terms of cases / hundred thousand.

Our 14 day incidence rate was (very briefly) the highest in the world but, as I'm sure you are aware, this was mostly due to delayed reporting of case numbers. There is no metric (deaths, infections rates, hospitalisation, case fatality rate etc) which says we are the worst in the world, or anywhere close to it. We have done better than average in Europe, and far better than the US or UK.

Of course, many of the criticisms of our approach are valid, but to position us as some sort of outlier in terms of how badly we've done is completely false.

caveat emptor

is_that_so wrote: »

2021 is far too late to be coming up with a new plan, this is the one we have and numbers are easing. It is also a strategy endorsed by NPHET and government. I don't expect another one like this and see a gradual up to the summer. What we learn in the next 3-4 months will tell us what happens after that.

Ok but I'd disagree. If the situation has changed then you should update your plan otherwise it's doomed to fail. Given that this is the third wave what do you think we need to learn in the next 3 - 4 months?

Given we've had 3 waves, I'd say it's fairly clear what will happen. If we open up and we don't have > 70% of the population vaccinated numbers will begin to rise exponentially. Thus a lockdown of some form will be required to reduce them to manageable levels. With the vaccine rollout going the way it is, this scenario is most likely.

There are unknowns which could completely scupper this plan. Like a variant which significantly increases the R number.

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1357059151281745921?s=20

Away With The Fairies

caveat emptor wrote: »

Yeah someone needs to tell the government not to do it asap. It clearly doesn't work. Like who want's Kids to be able to go school and hospitals to function?

Weirdos I say. Give me two weeks in Lanzarote anytime over those selfish demands.

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1357040275164659714?s=20

I don't understand. Alot of things has been advisory with all this including the wearing of face masks last May. But then they made those mandatory.

If they can make face masks mandatory, they can introduce other measures including mandatory hotel quarantine.

What's wrong with them?

Plumbthedepths

Qwertyminger wrote: »

Vaccine rollout isn't impacting this wave. Multiple sources have said vaccines won't be effective until late 2021 early 2022, if at all.

I say "if at all" because there's evidence they're only 60% effective in preventing severe disease, several of them don't prevent transmission of covid and the rollout has been painful so far.

So I'm not sure why you think the vaccine rollout will impact this wave except to presume hearing constantly that that's our strategy has confused you.


If it were up to the government we'd work until we were dead and bad management of covid would have killed us all already.

Ok if you going to post hyperbolic rubbish I feel it's best to stop responding to you. Have a good day.

seamus

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

Can we assume 68 hospital deaths

Hospital numbers yesterday 1366
Admissions 92
Discharges 82
Hospital numbers today 1308

Great to see hospital numbers trending downwards but sad to draw conclusions on the number of deaths.

No, we can't assume they're deaths.

Someone who tests negative for Covid but their primary illness is still being treated in hospital, will drop off the hospital numbers but won't be registered as a discharge.

If 40% of hospital numbers are hospital acquired, then you can in theory in multiply the discharges number by ~1.66 to get the "true" discharge numbers.

is_that_so

caveat emptor wrote: »

Ok but I'd disagree. If the situation has changed then you should update your plan otherwise it's doomed to fail. Given that this is the third wave what do you think we need to learn in the next 3 - 4 months?

Given we've had 3 waves, I'd say it's fairly clear what will happen. If we open up and we don't have > 70% of the population vaccinated numbers will begin to rise exponentially. Thus a lockdown of some form will be required to reduce them to manageable levels. With the vaccine rollout going the way it is, this scenario is most likely.

There are unknowns which could completely scupper this plan. Like a variant which significantly increases the R number.

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1357059151281745921?s=20

That would be the effect of mass vaccinations. For me the mood music is to relax as soon as we can. You seem to have fixated on 2020, when we had no vaccines. This is a different year.

is_that_so

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

I don't understand. Alot of things has been advisory with all this including the wearing of face masks last May. But then they made those mandatory.

If they can make face masks mandatory, they can introduce other measures including mandatory hotel quarantine.

What's wrong with them?

The law at present doesn't allow that.

Plumbthedepths

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

I don't understand. Alot of things has been advisory with all this including the wearing of face masks last May. But then they made those mandatory.

If they can make face masks mandatory, they can introduce other measures including mandatory hotel quarantine.

What's wrong with them?

Forced quarantine is basically imprisonment, a sound legal basis has to be enacted or a trip to the high court will ensue.
Masks are a public health measure which don't fall fowl of the constitution.

robbiezero

Danno wrote: »

Come March 1st I'm not adhering to restrictions with any great effort anymore. I'll respectfully wear a mask in a shop, etc... but I'll visit friends and family who want to meet up again. The 5km will be gone too. Enough of this ****.

Same.
Wife visiting her family next weekend down the country. Will visit mine 2 weeks after that.
Will do some back garden meet ups with friends then after that.

AdamD

Qwertyminger wrote: »

Vaccine rollout isn't impacting this wave. Multiple sources have said vaccines won't be effective until late 2021 early 2022, if at all.

I say "if at all" because there's evidence they're only 60% effective in preventing severe disease, several of them don't prevent transmission of covid and the rollout has been painful so far.

So I'm not sure why you think the vaccine rollout will impact this wave except to presume hearing constantly that that's our strategy has confused you.


If it were up to the government we'd work until we were dead and bad management of covid would have killed us all already.

This wave will continue for at least another month, vaccines are being rolled out, the poster was questioning our strategy for the end of this wave - Vaccines are absolutely going to have an impact on that strategy.

The rest of your post is just crap. The vaccines work, seems some of you are willing them not to.

caveat emptor

is_that_so wrote: »

That would be the effect of mass vaccinations. For me the mood music is to relax as soon as we can. You seem to have fixated on 2020, when we had no vaccines. This is a different year.

I like mood music too and it's important to relax. I'm not fixated on 2020 thank god. It was a horrible year for most. I would really like it if weren't caught on the hop by this for a 4th time.

Do you know what Critical vaccination level* is with this virus? Vaccines only work when this threshold is reached. Follow on question would be when are we likely to achieve this.

*"Proportion of the population that must be vaccinated to achieve herd immunity threshold"

Qwertyminger

AdamD wrote: »

This wave will continue for at least another month, vaccines are being rolled out, the poster was questioning our strategy for the end of this wave - Vaccines are absolutely going to have an impact on that strategy.

The rest of your post is just crap. The vaccines work, seems some of you are willing them not to.

Dunno why people are content to lie to themselves about vaccine effectiveness
https://www.google.com/search?q=vaccine+effectiveness+rate&safe=off&client=ms-android-sonymobile&prmd=insv&source=lnms&tbm=nws&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjEg-TQ_M_uAhWhTBUIHfB3A40Q_AUoAnoECAYQAg&cshid=1612432920008&biw=360&bih=512

Vaccines range from protecting just about half of those who take them from severe disease to around 9/10 at their peak effectiveness (though there is questionable data used to assess this).

https://www.google.com/search?q=vaccine+transmission+of+covid&source=lmns&tbm=nws&bih=512&biw=360&client=ms-android-sonymobile&prmd=insv&safe=off&hl=en-GB&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwiGtPul_c_uAhVcQBUIHcBaBZ0Q_AUoAnoECAAQBQ

The majority of research in to vaccines currently indicating that they don't stop transmission of covid.

These are facts. I would love if vaccines were more of an effective strategy.

zuutroy

Please stop posting absolute scutter.

CIARAN_BOYLE

Qwertyminger wrote: »

The majority of research in to vaccines currently indicating that they don't stop transmission of covid.

These are facts. I would love if vaccines were more of an effective strategy.

The majority of research (including your link) is showing that a single dose of the vaccine will significantly reduce transmission.

There's no good research yet on transmission.

Your link brings us to a claim that the first dose of th AZ vaccines reduces transmission by two thirds. That would bring the r number from 3 to 1. Basically the same effect on transmission as going from level3 to having no restrictions.

Presumably a second dose would have a bigger effect on transmission but there's no data yet.

It will take time but vaccines will get us there.

Edit: I'm not going to debunk the rest of your post. Please do research before posting. If you want to provide evidence link to articles not searches. You and I might get different results from the same search.

Away With The Fairies

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

Forced quarantine is basically imprisonment, a sound legal basis has to be enacted or a trip to the high court will ensue.
Masks are a public health measure which don't fall fowl of the constitution.

You can say everything they introduce is a public health measure because it is. How come other countries can quarantine and it's not seen as imprisonment?

How are we so fücked up on this? It needs fixing, like 11 months ago.

accensi0n

caveat emptor wrote: »

Doing the same thing and expecting a different outcome is crazy.

It's not when there's another variable in play, i.e. the vaccine.

Away With The Fairies

robbiezero wrote: »

Same.
Wife visiting her family next weekend down the country. Will visit mine 2 weeks after that.
Will do some back garden meet ups with friends then after that.

So you don't care if you have the virus and happy to spread it?

ShyMets

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

You can say everything they introduce is a public health measure because it is. How come other countries can quarantine and it's not seen as imprisonment?

How are we so fücked up on this? It needs fixing, like 11 months ago.

There is a Constitutional element which needs to be carefully considered. Mandatory Quarantine cannot be introduced without some form of legalization.

I do agree that it should have been done earlier

muddypuppy

caveat emptor wrote: »

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1357040275164659714?s=20

That's one of the things that really annoys me about the message that the government is trying to put across to the population. It's very conflicting.
The fact is that most politician are saying that you should quarantine if you come from outside of Ireland, but Leo is right, and that's not the official suggestion/ask. The official one is that you should "restrict your movement", which means that one can go out to exercise for example - https://www2.hse.ie/conditions/coronavirus/managing-coronavirus-at-home/self-isolating-and-restricting-movements-differences.html

It's the same when restaurants where opened again, but the message on national television was to guilt people for going into them.

mohawk

Qwertyminger wrote: »

Dunno why people are content to lie to themselves about vaccine effectiveness
https://www.google.com/search?q=vaccine+effectiveness+rate&safe=off&client=ms-android-sonymobile&prmd=insv&source=lnms&tbm=nws&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjEg-TQ_M_uAhWhTBUIHfB3A40Q_AUoAnoECAYQAg&cshid=1612432920008&biw=360&bih=512

Vaccines range from protecting just about half of those who take them from severe disease to around 9/10 at their peak effectiveness (though there is questionable data used to assess this).

https://www.google.com/search?q=vaccine+transmission+of+covid&source=lmns&tbm=nws&bih=512&biw=360&client=ms-android-sonymobile&prmd=insv&safe=off&hl=en-GB&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwiGtPul_c_uAhVcQBUIHcBaBZ0Q_AUoAnoECAAQBQ

The majority of research in to vaccines currently indicating that they don't stop transmission of covid.

These are facts. I would love if vaccines were more of an effective strategy.

The vaccines have been shown to reduce the severity of Covid. This means less hospitalisations and less deaths. We had no vaccines for this last wave and look at the numbers of patients admitted to hospital now think about a vaccine that reduces covid severity what impact does that have on hospital numbers and deaths.
Ideally the vaccine will also prevent transmission but the vaccines we have now will help us get back to some normality.

robbiezero

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

So you don't care if you have the virus and happy to spread it?

The chances of me having it are negligible

crossman47

robbiezero wrote: »

The chances of me having it are negligible

Too many people who are out and about think that. A GP was reported recently as being shocked at the number of people he rang to confirm a positive test who were out shopping.

vienne86

robbiezero wrote: »

The chances of me having it are negligible

And if everyone thinks the same way as you?

Qwertyminger

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

The majority of research (including your link) is showing that a single dose of the vaccine will significantly reduce transmission.

There's no good research yet on transmission.

Two directly contradictory sentences, great start.

Your link brings us to a claim that the first dose of th AZ vaccines reduces transmission by two thirds. That would bring the r number from 3 to 1.

Presuming that everyone in the country gets it. Which they categorically won't, and especially not "by the end of wave 3" as was being discussed.

Basically the same effect on transmission as going from level3 to having no restrictions.

Irrelevant given you hace said that there is no good research available yet and the whole country won't be just getting the AZ vaccine, as would be required for that ludicrous claim to be the case.

Presumably a second dose would have a bigger effect on transmission but there's no data yet.

It will take time but vaccines will get us there.

Edit: I'm not going to debunk the rest of your post. Please do research before posting. If you want to provide evidence link to articles not searches. You and I might get different results from the same search.

The whole point of putting up the search was to show that everyone can get this information easily by searching those terms.

Vaccine unreliability and the fact that they're not a solution in and of themselves is known information which people here refuse to acknowledge.

Combined with other strategies they'll be a good help but the government has really done a number on people who think vaccines are going to solve all our problems. They're not even going to fully solve some of our problems. That's what I'm trying to convey.

Away With The Fairies

robbiezero wrote: »

The chances of me having it are negligible

Sure all those people at Christmas going out and meeting up with family and friends thinking the same. Look what happened there.

robbiezero

crossman47 wrote: »

Too many people who are out and about think that. A GP was reported recently as being shocked at the number of people he rang to confirm a positive test who were out shopping.

"out shopping" - course they were.

robbiezero

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

Sure all those people at Christmas going out and meeting up with family and friends thinking the same. Look what happened there.

Not the same. I haven't been anywhere since Christmas.

robbiezero

vienne86 wrote: »

And if everyone thinks the same way as you?

If everyone has been WFH and at home seeing nobody for last 6 weeks, goes to visit their parents who also have been nowhere, then I don't really see an issue.

Away With The Fairies

robbiezero wrote: »

Not the same. I haven't been anywhere since Christmas.

That's not an excuse either. There's been stories from people saying they caught it and hadn't been anywhere either.

robbiezero

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

That's not an excuse either. There's been stories from people saying they caught it and hadn't been anywhere either.

I don't believe them.