Covid 19 Part XXXII-215,743 ROI (4,137 deaths)111,166 NI (2,036 deaths)(22/02)Read OP

Away With The Fairies

robbiezero wrote: »

I don't believe them.

Well, I don't believe you either.

JCX BXC

It's called personal responsibility, have we all forgotten what this is, do we need someone to tell us how to act?

robbiezero

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

Well, I don't believe you either.

What don't you believe?

Qwertyminger

Qwertyminger wrote: »

Two directly contradictory sentences, great start.


Presuming that everyone in the country gets it. Which they categorically won't, and especially not "by the end of wave 3" as was being discussed.


Irrelevant given you hace said that there is no good research available yet and the whole country won't be just getting the AZ vaccine, as would be required for that ludicrous claim to be the case.


The whole point of putting up the search was to show that everyone can get this information easily by searching those terms.

Vaccine unreliability and the fact that they're not a solution in and of themselves is known information which people here refuse to acknowledge.

Combined with other strategies they'll be a good help but the government has really done a number on people who think vaccines are going to solve all our problems. They're not even going to fully solve some of our problems. That's what I'm trying to convey.

People can read, and people can see that what you are saying does not match reality

GiftofGab

Does anybody know if doctor appointments are over the phone only during these times?? Looking to get a prescription for hair loss.

Stheno

GiftofGab wrote: »

Does anybody know if doctor appointments are over the phone only during these times?? Looking to get a prescription for hair loss.

Mine is anyway for the likes of prescriptions

Sanjuro

GiftofGab wrote: »

Does anybody know if doctor appointments are over the phone only during these times?? Looking to get a prescription for hair loss.

Initial consultation is over the phone. Only in person if it warrants. We've had several calls with different issues, sometimes requiring a prescription. No in person consultations at all.

Baggly

Qwertyminger wrote: »

Two directly contradictory sentences, great start.


Presuming that everyone in the country gets it. Which they categorically won't, and especially not "by the end of wave 3" as was being discussed.


Irrelevant given you hace said that there is no good research available yet and the whole country won't be just getting the AZ vaccine, as would be required for that ludicrous claim to be the case.


The whole point of putting up the search was to show that everyone can get this information easily by searching those terms.

Vaccine unreliability and the fact that they're not a solution in and of themselves is known information which people here refuse to acknowledge.

Combined with other strategies they'll be a good help but the government has really done a number on people who think vaccines are going to solve all our problems. They're not even going to fully solve some of our problems. That's what I'm trying to convey.

Mod

I wanted to give you a chance to MAYBE dig yourself out of the hole that was your previous post. But you have chosen to double down. So you can stay out of this thread in future, as a result.

RobAMerc

hi I asked this elsewhere, perhaps in the wrong forum

does anyone know if I can travel to pick up a rescue dog ? Friend needs rid of his mutt as he is moving to a house that doesnt allow it. I agreed to adopt the little fella. Put it off for Jan but the moving date now looms and restriction remains in place.

thanks

mohawk

GiftofGab wrote: »

Does anybody know if doctor appointments are over the phone only during these times?? Looking to get a prescription for hair loss.

Only on the phone. Your supposed to have your blood pressure checked routinely when taking the pill but GP is prescribing without checking it.

seamus

Massive drop in ICU numbers overnight. Down from 202 to 188. Unfortunately looks like 5 deaths and 9 discharges.

petes

GiftofGab wrote: »

Does anybody know if doctor appointments are over the phone only during these times?? Looking to get a prescription for hair loss.

Mostly over the phone, had to ring mine yest and the emailed the prescription to a pharmacy.

seamus

seamus wrote: »

Massive drop in ICU numbers overnight. Down from 202 to 188. Unfortunately looks like 5 deaths and 9 discharges.

not sure how you think that's a massive drop but a drop, all the same, RIP to those who lost their lives.

caveat emptor

Great news about lowering cases etc. Deaths are lagging and will hopefully fall quickly in the coming weeks.

If you like only positive good news stories then look away or block me. Not doing this for the likes. I just don't think what is actually needed to return to normal with this. Here's my main concern. Hopefully it is nothing to worry about and hopefully 'the plan' will be able get there this year but I'd have my doubts and that's not even including as yet unobserved variants.

We are allocated 1% of all the EU doses. Not all vaccines are as efficacious as the Pfizer or modern but we have a good chunk of those on order.
According to this https://www.rte.ie/news/2021/0112/1189121-astrazeneca-ema-request/ we can expect to be able to get the following. (I've counted them as being what's recommend. i.e if we can get 60 doses of Pfizer then it's counted as 30 as 30 administered).
Some don't need 2 doses but most do. These are calculated on the 1% of EU order.

• 2 million Astra @ 70 % efficacy
• 3 million Pfizer @ 95 % efficacy
• 4 million J&J @ 66% efficacy
• 800 K Moderna @ 92@ efficacy

Suppose that we prioritise the more efficacious vaccines then we have access to vaccine to inoculate 3.8 million People with these. We would then need to make up the shortfall with the less efficacious ones such as J&J or AZ.

Using a weighted average to calculated the average efficacy of the vaccinate population.(3.8 million @95% and 1 million @ 66%) vaccine efficacy for the pop ~90%. This is amazing by the way.

If the unrestricted R number of the virus is 4 as they now think it is with the new variant you can calculate the critical vaccination level. Vc i.e
Proportion of the population that must be vaccinated to achieve herd immunity threshold, with the following formula.

Vc = (1 - 1/R0)/ E.

where E is effectiveness against infection transmission, in the field which we assume to be 90% as per above you get

Vc = .75 / .9 ~ 80%

MM mentioned this figure the other day and people weren't happy.

Anyway Both the E in the formula above and the Ro can change due to variants which we have seen. Here's a chart with a vaccine that is 100% effective.

[IMG][/img]

https://academic.oup.com/cid/article/52/7/911/299077


We really need at least 80% of people to be vaccinated for us to go back to normal here on this island. How long that will take we have no idea.

With the rest of the world and particularly the developing world. They really only have access to the AZ vaccine so according to the formula above that is not enough to reach herd immunity so will likely circulate until the get access to more efficacious vaccines. You can see why the travel might be a challenge this year.

JCX BXC

[Deleted User] wrote: »

not sure how you think that's a massive drop but a drop, all the same, RIP to those who lost their lives.

Considering how slowly it's been dropping, I'd consider that a sizable drop. Takes the pressure off the ICU's

big syke

Deleted User wrote: »

not sure how you think that's a massive drop but a drop, all the same, RIP to those who lost their lives.

A 7% drop OVERNIGHT in ICU is is huge given the nature of ICU

CIARAN_BOYLE

Deleted User wrote: »

not sure how you think that's a massive drop but a drop, all the same, RIP to those who lost their lives.

Its 40% higher than our biggest single day drop in icu numbers during the pandemic so far (Drop of 10 on 29 April).

Therefore it counts as massive drop. Hopefully the decline continues.

The slow decline in icu numbers (221 at the peak on 24 January to 202 yesterday) has been frustrating a lot of people.

caveat emptor

Just to add I hope as more data comes out on the AZ one that it will be more efficacious thus making herd immunity easier to reach and prevent the virus circulating in developing countries which could see further variants.

CIARAN_BOYLE

caveat emptor wrote: »

Just to add I hope as more data comes out on the AZ one that it will be more efficacious thus making herd immunity easier to reach and prevent the virus circulating in developing countries which could see further variants.

Its worth noting that there's also a J&J 2 dose trial that hasn't reported yet. I am expecting that they will approve a second dose with higher efficacy.

gipi

RobAMerc wrote: »

hi I asked this elsewhere, perhaps in the wrong forum

does anyone know if I can travel to pick up a rescue dog ? Friend needs rid of his mutt as he is moving to a house that doesnt allow it. I agreed to adopt the little fella. Put it off for Jan but the moving date now looms and restriction remains in place.

thanks

Wasn't someone fined last week for travelling to Cork to pick up a dog they'd bought? Not quite the same, but it suggests that your trip might be seen as non-essential. Is there an animal rescue nearby that might be able to help?

JoChervil

caveat emptor wrote: »

I think the logic "we should let it run it's course so that it doesn't mutate is false logic." It'll mutate anywhere it is spreading in large enough numbers to allow it to.

The virus is only 1 year old. We don't know what'll happen year 2 or 3. Vaccinations will really help but it must be on a global scale otherwise forget about being able to prevent reimportation of a vaccine beating strain from some unvaccinated part of the world.

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/12/uk-variant-puts-spotlight-immunocompromised-patients-role-covid-19-pandemic

From that article:
"That strain, which appears to spread faster than others, contains one of the mutations that Gupta found, and researchers believe B. 1.1. 7, too, may have originated in an immunocompromised patient who had a long-running infection."

Virus the best mutates in a situation described above, not so much when just spreading in a natural way and conquered by healthy immune systems in healthy people

caveat emptor

caveat emptor wrote: »

Great news about lowering cases etc. Deaths are lagging and will hopefully fall quickly in the coming weeks.

If you like only positive good news stories then look away or block me. Not doing this for the likes. I just don't think what is actually needed to return to normal with this. Here's my main concern. Hopefully it is nothing to worry about and hopefully 'the plan' will be able get there this year but I'd have my doubts and that's not even including as yet unobserved variants.

We are allocated 1% of all the EU doses. Not all vaccines are as efficacious as the Pfizer or modern but we have a good chunk of those on order.
According to this https://www.rte.ie/news/2021/0112/1189121-astrazeneca-ema-request/ we can expect to be able to get the following. (I've counted them as being what's recommend. i.e if we can get 60 doses of Pfizer then it's counted as 30 as 30 administered).
Some don't need 2 doses but most do. These are calculated on the 1% of EU order.

• 2 million Astra @ 70 % efficacy
• 3 million Pfizer @ 95 % efficacy
• 4 million J&J @ 66% efficacy
• 800 K Moderna @ 92@ efficacy

Suppose that we prioritise the more efficacious vaccines then we have access to vaccine to inoculate 3.8 million People with these. We would then need to make up the shortfall with the less efficacious ones such as J&J or AZ.

Using a weighted average to calculated the average efficacy of the vaccinate population.(3.8 million @95% and 1 million @ 66%) vaccine efficacy for the pop ~90%. This is amazing by the way.

If the unrestricted R number of the virus is 4 as they now think it is with the new variant you can calculate the critical vaccination level. Vc i.e
Proportion of the population that must be vaccinated to achieve herd immunity threshold, with the following formula.

Vc = (1 - 1/R0)/ E.

where E is effectiveness against infection transmission, in the field which we assume to be 90% as per above you get

Vc = .75 / .9 ~ 80%

MM mentioned this figure the other day and people weren't happy.

Anyway Both the E in the formula above and the Ro can change due to variants which we have seen. Here's a chart with a vaccine that is 100% effective.

[IMG][/img]

https://academic.oup.com/cid/article/52/7/911/299077


We really need at least 80% of people to be vaccinated for us to go back to normal here on this island. How long that will take we have no idea.

With the rest of the world and particularly the developing world. They really only have access to the AZ vaccine so according to the formula above that is not enough to reach herd immunity so will likely circulate until the get access to more efficacious vaccines. You can see why the travel might be a challenge this year.

The efectivity of the vaccines published does not take account of the fact the they are all nearly 100% effective at preventing hospitalisations

TonyMaloney

JoChervil wrote: »

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/12/uk-variant-puts-spotlight-immunocompromised-patients-role-covid-19-pandemic

From that article:
"That strain, which appears to spread faster than others, contains one of the mutations that Gupta found, and researchers believe B. 1.1. 7, too, may have originated in an immunocompromised patient who had a long-running infection."

Virus the best mutates in a situation described above, not so much when just spreading in a natural way and conquered by healthy immune systems in healthy people

Jesus. There are two prominent Gupta's in the world of Covid it seems.

Thankfully this was the other Gupta, and not the "What would James Joyce say about lockdowns" Gupta

c68zapdsm5i1ru

robbiezero wrote: »

The chances of me having it are negligible

If your wife visits her family and then comes back to you and then you visit your parents how can you say there's no chance that you could spread it?

robbiezero

Dawson Future Wisecrack wrote: »

If your wife visits her family and then comes back to you and then you visit your parents how can you say there's no chance that you could spread it?

Will wait a few weeks from when my wife returns before I visit my lot just to be one the safe side, but again she and her family are in the same boat, have seen no-one since christmas.

hollypink

gipi wrote: »

Wasn't someone fined last week for travelling to Cork to pick up a dog they'd bought? Not quite the same, but it suggests that your trip might be seen as non-essential. Is there an animal rescue nearby that might be able to help?

I'd have thought this case would come under animal welfare which is allowed, as the dog will be homeless otherwise? Someone picking up a dog they bought is surely different as the animal will still be ok as it's with the breeder.

Widdensushi

Deleted User wrote: »

The efectivity of the vaccines published does not take account of the fact the they are all nearly 100% effective at preventing hospitalisations

Or that maybe 15%? Of our population have had it and have some immunity and the younger people suffer little with it so we can open up once 50% of the population have been vaccinated

hogandrew

Widdensushi wrote: »

Or that maybe 15%? Of our population have had it and have some immunity and the younger people suffer little with it so we can open up once 50% of the population have been vaccinated

It also depends on how you define 'open up'. Right now I'd consider what we had in the summer as opened up. With 30/40% (random number thrown out) of the population vaccinated, it may well be that with small restrictions in place, it is enough to keep the R number below 1, especially if the north has low numbers. However if open up means 80000 attending the all Ireland final, that's obviously a different story.

Widdensushi

Widdensushi wrote: »

Or that maybe 15%? Of our population have had it and have some immunity and the younger people suffer little with it so we can open up once 50% of the population have been vaccinated

Once the vaccinations are rolled out the goalposts will be moved, again, to prevent a reopening.

runawaybishop

b0nk1e wrote: »

Once the vaccinations are rolled out the goalposts will be moved, again, to prevent a reopening.

Why, you think the government aren't keen to get money coming in again or something?