Covid 19 Part XXXII-215,743 ROI (4,137 deaths)111,166 NI (2,036 deaths)(22/02)Read OP

petes

b0nk1e wrote: »

Once the vaccinations are rolled out the goalposts will be moved, again, to prevent a reopening.

Why exactly do you think this?

rob316

My 93 year old nan died this morning. We spent the whole year isolating our selves to keep her safe. Barely saw her and when I did it was from another room, saw my son once and never got to see our newborn. My mam says its better than dying of covid alone in a hospital gasping for breath. I'm conflicted though, did she enjoy her last year? The older years are all about your family and the generations you have created.

CalamariFritti

b0nk1e wrote: »

Once the vaccinations are rolled out the goalposts will be moved, again, to prevent a reopening.

I've had cynical thoughts like that myself, but I've changed my mind about that a small bit.

Yes, there will be 'resistance' and warnings from the medical cohort they will want to be ultra cautious and we can hear noises already that masks should be worn 'after this' etc. And of course there is a fair share of bull going on too.

But on the whole we can literally see governments scrambling for any kind of reprieve at the moment. Nerves are raw even, see vaccine dispute. We are desperate for this to end. All of us.

Loafing Oaf

petes wrote: »

Why exactly do you think this?

Widdensushi

petes wrote: »

Why exactly do you think this?

We are supposed to be 'living with covid', managing the numbers so the hospitals are not being overran, we are not there yet obviously but with hospital numbers down from over 2k to 1300 approx then we should be getting the dates for construction /schools to open in the next week or fortnight, we haven't been given that so I expect it is a month away, the goalposts have been moved.

MerlinSouthDub

caveat emptor wrote: »

We really need at least 80% of people to be vaccinated for us to go back to normal here on this island. How long that will take we have no idea.

Yes, something like that I guess, if by normal you mean back to the way things were in January 2020. I would imagine many people will remain working from home for the rest of this year, and large gathering won't be allowed until Q4. Both of these will reduce the R rate, as will continuing to wear masks. The % of people previously infected will also reduce the R rate. We have 200,000 known cases, and probably 500,000 or so allowing for all the missed cases in March, and some in December/January when test and trace got completely overloaded.

I can see us being able to eat in restaurants, visit each other etc (so, mostly normal) from May/June onwards with no further lockdowns thereafter. By Q3, we will have 80% of adults vaccinated. Testing of vaccines on children is already underway, so they'll probably get vaccinated in Q4.

But, of course, we don't know any of that for sure yet. We'll have to see how things go in Israel/UK over the coming weeks and months. By April, we will have a pretty clear picture of the path ahead.

caveat emptor

JoChervil wrote: »

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/12/uk-variant-puts-spotlight-immunocompromised-patients-role-covid-19-pandemic

From that article:
"That strain, which appears to spread faster than others, contains one of the mutations that Gupta found, and researchers believe B. 1.1. 7, too, may have originated in an immunocompromised patient who had a long-running infection."

Virus the best mutates in a situation described above, not so much when just spreading in a natural way and conquered by healthy immune systems in healthy people

Yes but considering the most concerning mutation E484K has now been observed in 3 different strains independently means that convergent evolution is taking place. i.e these specific mutations occur because they are advantageous to the virus.

Also developing nations have much higher levels of immunocompromised people. They are likely to be unvaccinated for some time so I doubt it'll be the last such mutation we see.

amandstu

CalamariFritti wrote: »

I've had cynical thoughts like that myself, but I've changed my mind about that a small bit.

Yes, there will be 'resistance' and warnings from the medical cohort they will want to be ultra cautious and we can hear noises already that masks should be worn 'after this' etc. And of course there is a fair share of bull going on too.

But on the whole we can literally see governments scrambling for any kind of reprieve at the moment. Nerves are raw even, see vaccine dispute. We are desperate for this to end. All of us.

Once we get on top of this globally the question will arise as to whether it can flare up again like the embers from a wild fire.

I don't think there is an expectation that it will ever be completely eradicated ; simply that we will be able to keep a few steps ahead of any large outbreak that could cause turmoil in the future.

With the vaccines we have being able to suppress transmission to a significant degree the outlook seems positive in the medium term and hopefully steadily improving from here on in

petes

Widdensushi wrote: »

We are supposed to be 'living with covid', managing the numbers so the hospitals are not being overran, we are not there yet obviously but with hospital numbers down from over 2k to 1300 approx then we should be getting the dates for construction /schools to open in the next week or fortnight, we haven't been given that so I expect it is a month away, the goalposts have been moved.

No offence but I asked that particular poster.

Widdensushi

petes wrote: »

No offence but I asked that particular poster.

Maybe pm them so rather than put it on a discussion thread?

Ficheall

[Deleted User] wrote: »

The efectivity of the vaccines published does not take account of the fact the they are all nearly 100% effective at preventing hospitalisations

Did the vaccines (or at least some of them) not ignore cases which were asymptomatic/mild? So good for hospitalisations and deaths, but it's not clear how transmissability/R value are affected?

petes

Widdensushi wrote: »

Maybe pm them so rather than put it on a discussion thread?

Why would I do that when they put it on the discussion thread and I wanted to know the answer on the discussion thread? Move along now.

vienne86

hollypink wrote: »

I'd have thought this case would come under animal welfare which is allowed, as the dog will be homeless otherwise? Someone picking up a dog they bought is surely different as the animal will still be ok as it's with the breeder.

I would agree with this. Animal welfare is definitely allowed.

CIARAN_BOYLE

I'm hearing (from someone watching the hse briefing) that there are 280 people receiving advanced respiratory support outside of icu and that upto a third of these would be in icu in normal circumstances.

They are treated outside of icu due to capacity issues.

I guess this would explain why icu numbers are remaining stubbornly high. When there is capacity people are transferred in.

Widdensushi

petes wrote: »

Why would I do that when they put it on the discussion thread and I wanted to know the answer on the discussion thread? Move along now.

I am good, thanks, you put your post in the discussion thread and I gave my opinion on it,if you don't want that pm the poster.

petes

Widdensushi wrote: »

I am good, thanks, you put your post in the discussion thread and I gave my opinion on it,if you don't want that pm the poster.

Last post on this, I quoted a poster directly and asked them the question, won't be taking anything to pm.

Widdensushi

petes wrote: »

Last post on this, I quoted a poster directly and asked them the question, won't be taking anything to pm.

Fair enough, I am entitled to give my opinion

Ficheall

Ficheall wrote: »

Did the vaccines (or at least some of them) not ignore cases which were asymptomatic/mild? So good for hospitalisations and deaths, but it's not clear how transmissability/R value are affected?

If hospitals are in good shape, the rest, including the R, really does not matter as much and should not be barrier to substantive relaxing of restrictions

I can almost hear the “but....but.....long Covid” crowd baying for tighter restrictions, but LC itself does not tip the balance toward restrictions in a way that mass hospitalisations does

is_that_so

Dr Colm Henry said the 14-day incidence has now dropped 40% in one week, going from 674 per 100,000 to 424.

He said the five-day moving average is down 20% in the last week from 1,383 to 1121 and the CMO does like his 5 day numbers.

caveat emptor

It's good that we are giving the vaccines as soon as they are delivered but the delivery schedule isn't great. 225,000 people by the start of April.

That leaves 4.775 million and at that rate we would have only 1 million by the end of the year. Which is significantly below the threshold.

Of course the points raised on hospitalisations and severe disease are valid and should allow us to reopen in a meaningful way.

*I cringe every time I hear the word meaningful after last Christmas.

Good graphic from Sunday business post

Drumpot

How many people have actually been infected and recovered? Is it about 200k people tested positive? What’s the multiplier factor that we believe is a truer representation of how many were actually infected? Is it 5-10 times that?

So would it be reasonable to assume that over a million people in Ireland have already had the virus and will prob retain some element of antibodies? Would it make sense to vaccinate these the last (those certainly in lower risk profile) ? I suppose they may get virus again but there is a positive that doesn’t appear to be included in discussions.

How does that affect our strategy with regards to vaccines? I know part of the strategy is so people are immune from virus, how much will those already immune play in this? Seems to be a complete focus on vaccines but is there not some benefit at least to those who recovered from it ?

Loafing Oaf

caveat emptor wrote: »

It's good that we are giving the vaccines as soon as they are delivered but the delivery schedule isn't great. 550,000 people by the start of April.

That leaves 4.5 million and at that rate we would have 2 million by the end of the year.

But the rate is due to step up as we move into the summer, no?

Sconsey

Drumpot wrote: »

How many people have actually been infected and recovered? Is it about 200k people tested positive? What’s the multiplier factor that we believe is a truer representation of how many were actually infected? Is it 5-10 times that?

So would it be reasonable to assume that over a million people in Ireland have already had the virus and will prob retain some element of antibodies? Would it make sense to vaccinate these the last (those certainly in lower risk profile) ? I suppose they may get virus again but there is a positive that doesn’t appear to be included in discussions.

How does that affect our strategy with regards to vaccines? I know part of the strategy is so people are immune from virus, how much will those already immune play in this? Seems to be a complete focus on vaccines but is there not some benefit at least to those who recovered from it ?

Using your assumptions, 800,000 people will not know if they had it so how could we identify them to be moved to the back of the queue? Maybe some case to be made for confirmed cases that have recovered but I think the science is sketchy on how long natural immunity lasts.

Drumpot

Sconsey wrote: »

Using your assumptions, 800,000 people will not know if they had it so how could we identify them to be moved to the back of the queue? Maybe some case to be made for confirmed cases that have recovered but I think the science is sketchy on how long natural immunity lasts.

Ah yeh, forgot about that, but its still a positive that a significant portion of the population (possibly more then 20%) has had and recovered from virus and will retain some level of antibodies and possibly immunity.

caveat emptor

caveat emptor wrote: »

It's good that we are giving the vaccines as soon as they are delivered but the delivery schedule isn't great. 550,000 people by the start of April.

That leaves 4.5 million and at that rate we would have 2 million by the end of the year. Which is significantly below the threshold.

Of course the points raised on hospitalisations and severe disease are valid and should allow us to reopen in a meaningful way.

*I cringe every time I hear the word meaningful after last Christmas.

Good graphic from Sunday business post

What makes you think we wont have a significant increase in available vaccines come April?

landofthetree

https://twitter.com/COVID19DataIE/status/1357352471090315268

mcburns07

Positive Swabs: 1,283
Tests Processed: 20,163
Positivity: 6.36%

21% reduction vs last Thursday

stephenjmcd

landofthetree wrote: »

https://twitter.com/COVID19DataIE/status/1357352471090315268

Not bad,
Fairly inline with the predictions Prof Nolan mentioned last week with the resumption of close contact testing, its going to play with the data a little bit for the next week or so I'd think

seamus

1,283 positive swabs, 6.36%. 7-day is now 6.35%

Almost identical to yesterday.

Weird enough times. The daily rate higher than the 7-day is usually not a great sign, but another day like today and it'll drop again tomorrow.

We had expected some fuzziness in the data with close contacts included, so it's a wait and see game.

As I said before, we can't expect huge drops anymore, it'll be a long, slow drop in.

KrustyUCC

Be interesting to see what happens tomorrow and Saturday

Swabs were fairly consistent Wednesday - Saturday last week

Hopefully there can be a bigger drop this week in those days as Sunday is usually a low figure