Covid 19 Part XXXII-215,743 ROI (4,137 deaths)111,166 NI (2,036 deaths)(22/02)Read OP

Benimar

I'm getting 1,360 swabs from the rolling total. 205,040 yesterday, 206,400 today?

muddypuppy

seamus wrote: »

1,283 positive swabs, 6.36%. 7-day is now 6.35%

Almost identical to yesterday.

Weird enough times. The daily rate higher than the 7-day is usually not a great sign, but another day like today and it'll drop again tomorrow.

We had expected some fuzziness in the data with close contacts included, so it's a wait and see game.

As I said before, we can't expect huge drops anymore, it'll be a long, slow drop in.

Isn't (1238/20163)*100 = ~6.14? Or I'm missing something?

stephenjmcd

KrustyUCC wrote: »

Be interesting to see what happens tomorrow and Saturday

Swabs were fairly consistent Wednesday - Saturday last week

Hopefully there can be a bigger drop this week in those days as Sunday is usually a low figure

I wouldn't be comparing this week on last week now to be honest in terms of daily cases. Two different sets of circumstances, last week no official contact tracing referrals this week there is. The fact that its not jumped is good but it'll probably be a slow decline now for the rest of the month while postive cases and their contacts filter through the system.

If they still weren't testing close contacts we'd probably see last weeks decrease keep up but its better they are tested even if it means a slower decline

mcburns07

muddypuppy wrote: »

Isn't (1238/20163)*100 = ~6.14? Or I'm missing something?

It's 1283

seamus

Benimar wrote: »

I'm getting 1,360 swabs from the rolling total. 205,040 yesterday, 206,400 today?

Yesterday's data was changed. 205117 yesterday.

muddypuppy wrote: »

Isn't (1238/20163)*100 = ~6.14? Or I'm missing something?

1283/20163

Benimar

seamus wrote: »

Yesterday's data was changed. 205117 yesterday.

What happens to those swabs? I assume they are still included in the 7 day positivity count, but not an individual days rate?

seamus

Benimar wrote: »

What happens to those swabs? I assume they are still included in the 7 day positivity count, but not an individual days rate?

Looking at the full dataset, there have been significant revisions of the data. None of my numbers match the official data as far back as 27th December, if not further.

For statistical purposes, these changes are minor, they don't affect NPHETs projections. And case numbers are not derived directly from the swab numbers, so that's not affected too.

It's irritating, but it's not a big deal.

titan18

Decent numbers today with a few hundred drop since last Thursday. Get a similar drop and we'll be sub 1000 nearly all of next week.

caveat emptor

Deleted User wrote: »

What makes you think we wont have a significant increase in available vaccines come April?

Oh I'm sure there'll be more approved vaccines etc but I haven't seen anything to date detailing how many we'll get by when. Apart from that chart from Sunday business post which is based on the governments estimate of deliveries for Q1.

Ficheall

caveat emptor wrote: »

Oh I'm sure there'll be more approved vaccines etc but I haven't seen anything to date detailing how many we'll get by when. Apart from that chart from Sunday business post which is based on the governments estimate of deliveries for Q1.

I thought we were due to have 1.1 million (originally 1.4 million) jabbed by end of March? If they keep lowering the predictions like that, they'll be asking people to give the vaccines back soon...

Wolf359f

caveat emptor wrote: »

Oh I'm sure there'll be more approved vaccines etc but I haven't seen anything to date detailing how many we'll get by when. Apart from that chart from Sunday business post which is based on the governments estimate of deliveries for Q1.

Is that chart not based on estimates from Jan 10th?

spookwoman

Benimar wrote: »

I'm getting 1,360 swabs from the rolling total. 205,040 yesterday, 206,400 today?

problem with the numbers alright.


I keep a record of them and yesterdays was a difference of -99 in the tests completed in the last 24 hours. Today it's -1728.

nearly every day the hospital numbers especially, get changed for the previous day and positives etc get tweaked as well.

JoChervil

caveat emptor wrote: »

Yes but considering the most concerning mutation E484K has now been observed in 3 different strains independently means that convergent evolution is taking place. i.e these specific mutations occur because they are advantageous to the virus.

Also developing nations have much higher levels of immunocompromised people. They are likely to be unvaccinated for some time so I doubt it'll be the last such mutation we see.

That's exactly why time is crucial and healthy people should be allowed to live their lives as soon as more vulnerable are vaccinated. Of course those who are willing to risk it to get sooner to herd immunity from both sources: vaccine and recovery

caveat emptor

Wolf359f wrote: »

Is that chart not based on estimates from Jan 10th?

Feel free to show the latest chart if you have it thanks. Scant information to go off. If there was anything more concrete I'm sure the government would be telling us.

Also reading between the lines the action by the EU in the last week kinda suggests they are not happy with deliveries.

They've torn up the Belfast agreement in a effort to block export of Pfizer to UK through Northern Ireland. They've since back tracked but it's an indication of the situation that they would resort to such drastic actions to secure / improve supply.

wadacrack

mcburns07 wrote: »

Positive Swabs: 1,283
Tests Processed: 20,163
Positivity: 6.36%

21% reduction vs last Thursday

Not great numbers, the impact of close contacts (no symptoms) would be about 10%.

10% of 1,300 or so is 130.

Progress beginning to slow/stall at a higher number. Hopefully just a blip but going to be hard to get numbers down much more. People behaviour will change

CIARAN_BOYLE

caveat emptor wrote: »

Feel free to show the latest chart if you have it thanks. Scant information to go off. If there was anything more concrete I'm sure the government would be telling us.

Also reading between the lines the action by the EU in the last week kinda suggests they are not happy with deliveries.

They've torn up the Belfast agreement in a effort to block export of Pfizer to UK through Northern Ireland. They've since back tracked but it's an indication of the situation that they would resort to such drastic actions to secure / improve supply.

No chart but 1. 1 million doses by end of q1.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.joe.ie/amp/news/ireland-to-have-1-1-million-doses-of-vaccine-by-end-of-march-714600

Your chart was based on projected deliveries with AZ not being approved.

Knine

JoChervil wrote: »

That's exactly why time is crucial and healthy people should be allowed to live their lives as soon as more vulnerable are vaccinated. Of course those who are willing to risk it to get sooner to herd immunity from both sources: vaccine and recovery

A healthy 33 year old died yesterday. No underlying conditions.

caveat emptor

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

No chart but 1. 1 million doses by end of q1.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.joe.ie/amp/news/ireland-to-have-1-1-million-doses-of-vaccine-by-end-of-march-714600

Your chart was based on projected deliveries with AZ being approved.

That's great that's double the first estimate. I can't claim credit for chart , someone from Sunday business post.

JoChervil

Sconsey wrote: »

Using your assumptions, 800,000 people will not know if they had it so how could we identify them to be moved to the back of the queue? Maybe some case to be made for confirmed cases that have recovered but I think the science is sketchy on how long natural immunity lasts.

https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/medical-advances/537173-coronavirus-antibodies-last-for-at-least-6

JoChervil

Knine wrote: »

A healthy 33 year old died yesterday. No underlying conditions.

That's why I am saying about those, who are willing to risk

runawaybishop

caveat emptor wrote: »

That's great that's double the first estimate. I can't claim credit for chart , someone from Sunday business post.

1.1million doses, some of which require 2 jabs. That's based on current estimates which include the production issues. As they resolve it will go a lot higher and we won't need to keep as many back, allowing a faster rollout of initial jabs which do provide protection.

Derek Zoolander

Knine wrote: »

A healthy 33 year old died yesterday. No underlying conditions.

that's terrible is there further information on this?

igCorcaigh

Bad numbers, for days now. Too high to be stable.

CIARAN_BOYLE

caveat emptor wrote: »

That's great that's double the first estimate. I can't claim credit for chart , someone from Sunday business post.

I just realised my response had a typo. Your chart from sbp was assuming AZ would not be approved.

Pfizer and Moderna only.

caveat emptor

Latest poll shows 86% of people back mandatory hotel quarantine. Good thing we live in a representative democracy.

There is overwhelming support for mandatory 14-day hotel quarantine for all air passengers arriving into the country, according to today‘s Red C/Business Post poll.

A total of 86 per cent of those polled agreed with the proposition that people travelling to Ireland should have to quarantine in a hotel, at their own expense, to reduce...

https://twitter.com/RachelLavin/status/1357327003117060097?s=20

Ficheall

caveat emptor wrote: »

Latest poll shows 86% of people back mandatory hotel quarantine. Good thing we live in a representative democracy.

How many of those 86% are the type to go on holidays and not restrict their movements when they return, though?

caveat emptor

Ficheall wrote: »

How many of those 86% are the type to go on holidays and not restrict their movements when they return, though?

No idea. Not sure how many of them are called Una either. #grancanaria

Strumms

Del Griffith wrote: »

And if everyone thought like you we'd be locked down forever.

People have been dying since the dawn of time and people will continue dying long after this vaccine roll out is complete (even of covid, since we're counting deaths of people past the age of average mortality as covid deaths).

High time people took some sort of (reasonable) stand.

For me once the vulnerable groups are vaccinated I'm done with all restrictions, not hanging around another year to vaccinate healthy people (that if they get it will only have mild or no symptoms at all anyway).

Right, with a vaccine being administered, we’ll be locked down forever, that’s really some conclusion, some thinking...


People have been dying, but simply more are dying or getting seriously ill, many more... tune in, watch the news, covid, it’s a pandemic.

MerlinSouthDub

caveat emptor wrote: »

Latest poll shows 86% of people back mandatory hotel quarantine. Good thing we live in a representative democracy.

And the polls in November said people wanted the eateries open in December. I don't think we should run the country by opinion polls.

harr

Knine wrote: »

A healthy 33 year old died yesterday. No underlying conditions.

Would that be no underlying conditions that they knew about. Plenty of people with heart conditions they knows nothing about.
Or would it be a fit healthy person with absolutely no health issues.
When I hear of these deaths I often wonder if something unknown to them caused issues.