Covid 19 Part XXXII-215,743 ROI (4,137 deaths)111,166 NI (2,036 deaths)(22/02)Read OP

Turtwig

harr wrote: »

Would that be no underlying conditions that they knew about. Plenty of people with heart conditions they knows nothing about.
Or would it be a fit healthy person with absolutely no health issues.
When I hear of these deaths I often wonder if something unknown to them caused issues.

It's funny though how much comfort we seek. If someone over 70 with multiple underlying conditions doesn't die (of which most won't die) there's almost a surprise by some when they make it through. Yet, when someone apparently healthy dies we have to resort to assuming they had something wrong with them. Maybe they did. Maybe they didn't. We shouldn't prejudice it with assumptions though. Disease and individual risk does not work akin to a natural order or hierarchy.

Eod100

https://twitter.com/ZaraKing/status/1357391013300600834

Jim_Hodge

harr wrote: »

Would that be no underlying conditions that they knew about. Plenty of people with heart conditions they knows nothing about.
Or would it be a fit healthy person with absolutely no health issues.
When I hear of these deaths I often wonder if something unknown to them caused issues.

I find that a bit disingenuous. My cousin, aged 59, died with Covid last week. An active, fit and healthy person. If there was an underlying condition it was having no impact on his active life. I'm sure his family would get some relief from the notion that he probably had some hidden underlying condition. :rolleyes:

irishguy1983

Eod100 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/ZaraKing/status/1357391013300600834

1300!! Something is not working..Don’t have the answers (unlike many around here) but something is not working....

Larbre34

Hmm. Stalling at a persistent level is not great.

Very high number of deaths too. On average, we're losing a double decker bus full of our fellow citizens every day. It's the responsibility or every man woman and child to conduct themselves in a way that will kill off community transmission of this disease.

MerlinSouthDub

Philip Nolan:

“It’s very good news that our estimates of the R number are well below one - in the region of 0.5-0.8”

MerlinSouthDub

Larbre34 wrote: »

Hmm. Stalling at a persistent level is not great.

Very high number of deaths too. On average, we're losing a double decker bus full of our fellow citizens every day. It's the responsibility or every man woman and child to conduct themselves in a way that will kill off community transmission of this disease.

Fully expected that we'd stall this week, with close contact testing resumed. Should see better progress over the next week.

The deaths are very sad, just remember they relate to the very high cases numbers we had, not to current infection rates.

is_that_so

Jim_Hodge wrote: »

I find that a bit disingenuous. My cousin, aged 59, died with Covid last week. An active, fit and healthy person. If there was an underlying condition it was having no impact on his active life. I'm sure his family would get some relief from the notion that he probably had some hidden underlying condition. :rolleyes:

Sorry for your loss. This part of the disease they have not figured out. It may be genetic factors or due to auto antibodies but research is still ongoing.

giveitholly

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

Philip Nolan:

“It’s very good news that our estimates of the R number are well below one - in the region of 0.5-0.8”

According to MM the English variant is adding 0.5 to the R number so if that didn't exist our R number would be between 0.0 and 0.3. Yeah right

Jim_Hodge

is_that_so wrote: »

Sorry for your loss. This part of the disease they have not figured out. It may be genetic factors or due to auto antibodies but research is still ongoing.

Thanks, and I had heard that discussed.

Somebody should tell harr.

zuutroy

No stalling really. The exponent of the decay has gone down a bit, but still well on course for around 300 cases a day by March 5th. Thursday is the worst day to judge anything because it's always 2 bad days in a row on Thursday.

blowitupref

7 day average is 1170 cases per day the 7 day averages the previous 4 Thursdays

28/1: 1537
21/1: 2699
14/1: 5074
7/1: 5129

And this week includes close contacts.

titan18

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

Fully expected that we'd stall this week, with close contact testing resumed. Should see better progress over the next week.

The deaths are very sad, just remember they relate to the very high cases numbers we had, not to current infection rates.

Thing is that a lot of people are also starting to get tired of it and places that closed for January (that were allowed open) are now reopening. More places doing takeaway food and drink etc starting to open back up which will drive increased interactions.

ednwireland

Ficheall wrote: »

How many of those 86% are the type to go on holidays and not restrict their movements when they return, though?

what do you expect people stuck with a garda enforced 5km limit. no let people in ? I'm only surprised its only 86 %

is_that_so

ednwireland wrote: »

what do you expect people stuck with a garda enforced 5km limit. no let people in ? I'm only surprised its only 86 %

Travel is being pitched, in some quarters, as the one and only cause of cases and that is the magic that will fix it.

polesheep

Jim_Hodge wrote: »

Thanks, and I had beard that discussed.

Somebody should tell harr.

And somebody should tell those who rush to post about what they know are statistical outliers such as healthy 33 year old dying from Covid just to give a false impression. That is equally disingenuous, is it not?

Knine

Knine wrote: »

A healthy 33 year old died yesterday. No underlying conditions.

Worth mentioning that there have been 200,000 cases + undocumented cases / community transmission.

Therefore, the likelihood is that you will unfortunately see a random young person die - much the same way a tiny number of young people die with the influenza virus each year.

Doesn't diminish the case, but it's worth putting the statistics in some perspective.

stephenjmcd

Nolan gave a good explanation there of the progress and keen to point out any apparent stalling isn't reality.

polesheep

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

Philip Nolan:

“It’s very good news that our estimates of the R number are well below one - in the region of 0.5-0.8”

They're finally starting to learn something about communications.

is_that_so

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Nolan gave a good explanation there of the progress and keen to point out any apparent stalling isn't reality.

Well, he did start the rumour himself earlier in the week!

polesheep

is_that_so wrote: »

Travel is being pitched, in some quarters, as the one and only cause of cases and that is the magic that will fix it.

We really haven't progressed from the days of sacrifices to angry gods.

Red Silurian

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

Philip Nolan:

“It’s very good news that our estimates of the R number are well below one - in the region of 0.5-0.8”

Our 5 day average at the moment is 839.4 so next week's average should be around the 670 mark if the R is 0.8, right?

Stheno

colmtheperson wrote: »

Our 5 day average at the moment is 839.4 so next week's average should be around the 670 mark if the R is 0.8, right?

Think it might take two weeks to take affect?

Ironhead93

He's thinking about the book he's going to get ghostwritten for him and released next year. Everyone 60+ will eat it up. Still can't believe he went on the late late, Soaking it up while it lasts.

RebelButtMunch

I'm starting to think the case numbers are bottomed out at this level of restrictions. Only the vaccination program will bring them down further... and that'll be stressed as we open up

Jim_Hodge

polesheep wrote: »

And somebody should tell those who rush to post about what they know are statistical outliers such as healthy 33 year old dying from Covid just to give a false impression. That is equally disingenuous, is it not?

It's nothing to do with outliers, it's to do with people automatically throwing in the old underlying conditions line to minimise the relevance of any death.

Ficheall

Ironhead93 wrote: »

He's thinking about the book he's going to get ghostwritten for him and released next year. Everyone 60+ will eat it up. Still can't believe he went on the late late, Soaking it up while it lasts.

Have you anything resembling evidence for this, or are you just being nasty and dishonest for the sake of it?

Widdensushi

RebelButtMunch wrote: »

I'm starting to think the case numbers are bottomed out at this level of restrictions. Only the vaccination program will bring them down further... and that'll be stressed as we open up

Why? Percentage positive is down, hospital, ICU numbers dropping, Nolan is saying r number is 0.5 to 0.8, close contacts being tested now, cases are dropping but we are finding more of them that were being missed a couple of weeks ago.

1huge1

colmtheperson wrote: »

Our 5 day average at the moment is 839.4 so next week's average should be around the 670 mark if the R is 0.8, right?

5 day avg is 1089 by my calc

Ironhead93

Ficheall wrote: »

Have you anything resembling evidence for this, or are you just being nasty and dishonest for the sake of it?

With respect if you do a little googling you'll find a fair share more evidence of him being nasty and dishonest than myself.