Covid 19 Part XXXII-215,743 ROI (4,137 deaths)111,166 NI (2,036 deaths)(22/02)Read OP

Tpcl20

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

I'm not jumping to extremes Jim . If people don't want kids mixing there is limited options on how to stop it. Confined to one's home is the most obvious.
Thing is i see plenty of kids and young teens mixing everyday as I travel to work, yet I can forgo the need to whinge about it on the internet about it.

Clearly plenty else to whinge about.

My family are keeping their kids at home and going out for walks instead. Cousins play together in the garden some days but both households know that they have reduced their movements completely (all working from home, getting shopping delivered) so the risk is very low. A lot of families on my road are keeping their kids at home but I see kids going around the place together as well.

I suppose it's personal choice. The guards are hardly going to arrest them.

Plumbthedepths

Tpcl20 wrote: »

Clearly plenty else to whinge about.

My family are keeping their kids at home and going out for walks instead. Cousins play together in the garden some days but both households know that they have reduced their movements completely (all working from home, getting shopping delivered) so the risk is very low. A lot of families on my road are keeping their kids at home but I see kids going around the place together as well.

I suppose it's personal choice. The guards are hardly going to arrest them.

Have you a point to counter what I said , this time without a dig please or do you agree with what I said?

Strumms

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

I'm not jumping to extremes Jim . If people don't want kids mixing there is limited options on how to stop it. Confined to one's home is the most obvious.
Thing is i see plenty of kids and young teens mixing everyday as I travel to work, yet I can forgo the need to whinge about it on the internet about it.

People are however entitled to discuss it. Nobody is whinging. Boards being a discussion site / forum... its logical that people can discuss negative aspects and contexts of any topic available for discussion that they see fit.

Plumbthedepths

Strumms wrote: »

People are however entitled to discuss it. Nobody is whinging. Boards being a discussion site / forum... its logical that people can discuss negative aspects and contexts of any topic available for discussion that they see fit.

When someone describes kids as 'feral' or in the manner as you have on occasions I dismiss them as whinging.

Strumms

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

When someone describes kids as 'feral' or in the manner as you have on occasions I dismiss them as whinging.

Really ? You should look up both the definitions ‘feral’ and ‘whinging’ as provided by dictionaries or equivalent language resource which will verify my usage of feral as a word appropriate in the meaning and context.... you on the other hand...whinging.. look it up, good man.

Plumbthedepths

Strumms wrote: »

Really ? You should look up both the definitions ‘feral’ and ‘whinging’ as provided by dictionaries or equivalent language resource which will verify my usage of feral as a word appropriate in the meaning and context.... you on the other hand...whinging.. look it up, good man.

Yeah really, you have a disgusting attitude towards children.
In the interests of not derailing the thread I'll leave it there.

spookwoman

KrustyUCC wrote: »

Figures taken from here

https://covid19.shanehastings.eu/api/swabs/

How does that affect my figures?

You're figures are always great in fairness to ya

Some effort there

He is using the same updated figures from the 6th and each time they update he would be using their live numbers.

I download and manually put in the days numbers each day from the hub into an excel file, downloading the csv as well most of the time and it's how I know they "fiddle" the numbers if that's what you could call it.
I have a column in mine that auto calculates the difference for the 24 hours also and it's how I know there was a 1700 + difference in what they put up. It's also how I copped the backlog back at xmas when there was 5k difference one day

wakka12

https://twitter.com/Kit_Yates_Maths/status/1357960180672188417
https://twitter.com/Clairina/status/1357969019001835521
https://twitter.com/magicmiz/status/1358010290718330880

Michael Yeadon is gone. An absolute scourge of a man and rotten to the core. Twitter will always be gutter but a bit better without him around. Hopefully Ivor Cummins next and Claire Craig

bb1234567

https://twitter.com/Humble_Analysis/status/1358184917805322240

Micky 32

bb1234567 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/Humble_Analysis/status/1358184917805322240

I noticed the trend on Worldometer alright. I saw a tweet where the WHO were a bit baffled by it.

ceadaoin.

bb1234567 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/Humble_Analysis/status/1358184917805322240

Weirdly, the most vaccinated country in the world, Israel, is declining at a slower rate than many other places, despite also still being in lockdown. The US is doing ok at vaccinating people with more than 36 million doses administered, but its too soon for that to be responsible for the drastic drop in cases (I think its over a 50% decline over the past 2 weeks now) and hospitalisations. Not many places are still under full restrictions, even California have been relaxing them the past couple of weeks. Some places are completely open for months and still seeing declines.

Seasonality? The beginnings of herd immunity? Or maybe the new testing recommendations by the WHO? That wouldn't account for fewer hospitalisations though

amandstu

bb1234567 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/Humble_Analysis/status/1358184917805322240

The contributions on that feed are not very helpful.

Is there a considered explanation for why the global figures are going down?

Is it just a case of the virus' properties being not properly understood?

I haven't come across any explanations on RTE or similar channels although the decline seems fairly apparent (in Ireland the explanation does not seem mysterious but globally?)

Or is seesawing a common attribute of pandemics?

ceadaoin.

amandstu wrote: »

The contributions on that feed are not very helpful.

Is there a considered explanation for why the global figures are going down?

Is it just a case of the virus' properties being not properly understood?

I haven't come across any explanations on RTE or similar channels although the decline seems fairly apparent (in Ireland the explanation does not seem mysterious but globally?)

Or is seesawing a common attribute of pandemics?

Well sars 1 and mers both just kind of disappeared and they arent fully sure why. Not sure about sars 1 but mers still pops up occasionally but not at epidemic levels. Hopefully sars 2 is on the way to a similar outcome.

I know we've seen peaks and troughs with this virus before but this time feels different somehow.

AlmightyCushion

amandstu wrote: »

The contributions on that feed are not very helpful.

Is there a considered explanation for why the global figures are going down?

Is it just a case of the virus' properties being not properly understood?

I haven't come across any explanations on RTE or similar channels although the decline seems fairly apparent (in Ireland the explanation does not seem mysterious but globally?)

Or is seesawing a common attribute of pandemics?

It could be people were more lax with restrictions over Christmas and are now taking them more seriously. I know plenty of people who were taking this seriously since the start who were lax over the Christmas and since early January have reduced their contacts and in most cases their only contacts are people they live with. I'd say even countries with strict restrictions over the Christmas period had people ignoring them who normally wouldn't.

amandstu

AlmightyCushion wrote: »

It could be people were more lax with restrictions over Christmas and are now taking them more seriously. I know plenty of people who were taking this seriously since the start who were lax over the Christmas and since early January have reduced their contacts and in most cases their only contacts are people they live with. I'd say even countries with strict restrictions over the Christmas period had people ignoring them who normally wouldn't.

Seems plausible .There are really very few countries that do not celebrate Chrstmas that might allow one to use them as a reference.

China has very few cases anyway. Malaysia (10 % Christian population)doesn't show the same pattern and Indonesia , also has 10% Christians but does show a similar ,if less pronounced pattern to the "mainstream"

Charles Babbage

ceadaoin. wrote: »

Weirdly, the most vaccinated country in the world, Israel, is declining at a slower rate than many other places, despite also still being in lockdown. The US is doing ok at vaccinating people with more than 36 million doses administered, but its too soon for that to be responsible for the drastic drop in cases (I think its over a 50% decline over the past 2 weeks now) and hospitalisations. Not many places are still under full restrictions, even California have been relaxing them the past couple of weeks. Some places are completely open for months and still seeing declines.

Seasonality? The beginnings of herd immunity? Or maybe the new testing recommendations by the WHO? That wouldn't account for fewer hospitalisations though

Just as in Ireland the effects of Xmas/New Year socialising are dropping out of the system.

AlmightyCushion

amandstu wrote: »

Seems plausible .There are really very few countries that do not celebrate Chrstmas that might allow one to use them as a reference.

China has very few cases anyway. Malaysia (10 % Christian population)doesn't show the same pattern and Indonesia , also has 10% Christians but does show a similar ,if less pronounced pattern to the "mainstream"

To me, it just seems the most likely reason for it. December is probably the most sociable time of year by far. It's the time of year loads of people travel home even from abroad and everyone sees everyone. After the year we've had even with restrictions I can see even the most responsible of people choosing to meet up with more people than they would have if it was any other time of year.

It seems way more likely that the virus becoming milder or less transmissible or something like that.

Micky 32

Charles Babbage wrote: »

Just as in Ireland the effects of Xmas/New Year socialising are dropping out of the system.

Without a doubt that’s part of it , but going by what the WHO said it doesn’t explain it fully.

AlmightyCushion

Micky 32 wrote: »

Without a doubt that’s part of it , but going by what the WHO said it doesn’t explain it fully.

Where did you see that?

Micky 32

AlmightyCushion wrote: »

Where did you see that?

A tweet link was posted on one of the threads , can’t remember which one sorry.

ceadaoin.

Charles Babbage wrote: »

Just as in Ireland the effects of Xmas/New Year socialising are dropping out of the system.

Yeah but many parts of the US didn't have a surge after the holidays as predicted. Lots of states started their decline before Christmas and continued to drop steadily. Overall, the post holiday surge was nowhere near as bad as some expected. So I dont think that explains it.

Hospitals had braced for enormous spikes in patients that could have forced rationing care, exhausted already limited beds and sparked a nationwide shortage of health-care workers. But officials across the country said those dire predictions — a wave of severe Christmas cases weeks after a rapid increase from Thanksgiving — did not materialize in most places.

“The surge on top of a surge that could have happened didn’t really happen,” said Erin Bromage, a biology professor at the University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth.

Likewise the prediction in this article that we could still see another surge doesn't seem to be coming to pass either

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2021/01/23/coronavirus-christmas-surge/

AlmightyCushion

ceadaoin. wrote: »

Yeah but many parts of the US didn't have a surge after the holidays as predicted. Lots of states started their decline before Christmas and continued to drop steadily. Overall, the post holiday surge was nowhere near as bad as some expected. So I dont think that explains it.



Likewise the prediction in this article that we could still see another surge doesn't seem to be coming to pass either

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2021/01/23/coronavirus-christmas-surge/

Going by the article, it says they did have increased cases after the Christmas but they expected a bigger surge.

Cases skyrocketed at the start of 2021, approaching a seven-day daily average of 250,000 around Jan. 10 before declining. But the toll on the health-care system was softer than expected.

They say some experts are putting it down to people changing their behaviour after seeing the Thanksgiving surge and limiting their contacts and having smaller gatherings. So, pretty much what is being suggested here but they did it after Thanksgiving.

ceadaoin.

AlmightyCushion wrote: »

Going by the article, it says they did have increased cases after the Christmas but they expected a bigger surge.



They say some experts are putting it down to people changing their behaviour after seeing the Thanksgiving surge and limiting their contacts and having smaller gatherings. So, pretty much what is being suggested here but they did it after Thanksgiving.

Yeah thats what I said, the Christmas surge was nowhere near predicted. The Thanksgiving "surge" was a bit of a mixed bag also with many states not having any noticeable increase. So overall, I dont think a huge holiday surge is the reason cases are dropping now

https://www.bbc.com/news/55363256

vienne86

spookwoman wrote: »

He is using the same updated figures from the 6th and each time they update he would be using their live numbers.

I download and manually put in the days numbers each day from the hub into an excel file, downloading the csv as well most of the time and it's how I know they "fiddle" the numbers if that's what you could call it.
I have a column in mine that auto calculates the difference for the 24 hours also and it's how I know there was a 1700 + difference in what they put up. It's also how I copped the backlog back at xmas when there was 5k difference one day

You do great work producing your very clear tables every evening, saving people like me having to wade into the figures on the hub. Thank you.

Happydays2020

spookwoman wrote: »

He is using the same updated figures from the 6th and each time they update he would be using their live numbers.

I download and manually put in the days numbers each day from the hub into an excel file, downloading the csv as well most of the time and it's how I know they "fiddle" the numbers if that's what you could call it.
I have a column in mine that auto calculates the difference for the 24 hours also and it's how I know there was a 1700 + difference in what they put up. It's also how I copped the backlog back at xmas when there was 5k difference one day

Am I understanding this correctly? So there is potentially a 1700 backlog to add to the figures which would wipe out what we thought was a reduction in cases over the last 7 days?

is_that_so

Happydays2020 wrote: »

Am I understanding this correctly? So there is potentially a 1700 backlog to add to the figures which would wipe out what we thought was a reduction in cases over the last 7 days?

Well if they relate to specific days they'll be rolled into those totals and one would see them adjusted accordingly. I find it a whole lot easier not to sweat the "backlog" especially as they are now testing close contacts again. The trend is downward anyway.

is_that_so

ceadaoin. wrote: »

Well sars 1 and mers both just kind of disappeared and they arent fully sure why. Not sure about sars 1 but mers still pops up occasionally but not at epidemic levels. Hopefully sars 2 is on the way to a similar outcome.

I know we've seen peaks and troughs with this virus before but this time feels different somehow.

Both are far more virulent. SARS is at about 10% but it burnt itself out. MERS still resurfaces from time to time in the Middle East and can be up to 35% fatality.

Gruffalux

https://twitter.com/holmescnn/status/1355747853776392201?s=20

Roger_007

What’s happening in India. It was predicted that India would be one of the worst hit countries but the latest figures suggest that the rate of new infections is vanishingly small and declining steadily. If our infection rate was the same as India we would have less than 5 cases per day.
Have they achieved herd immunity?

is_that_so

Roger_007 wrote: »

What’s happening in India. It was predicted that India would be one of the worst hit countries but the latest figures suggest that the rate of new infections is vanishingly small and declining steadily. If our infection rate was the same as India we would have less than 5 cases per day.
Have they achieved herd immunity?

The age profile is a lot better than many countries. Apart from a Delhi test no other part of India is claiming herd immunity. There is also a suggestion that the prevalence of typhoid and TB might make immune systems better at dealing with COVID.