Covid 19 Part XXXII-215,743 ROI (4,137 deaths)111,166 NI (2,036 deaths)(22/02)Read OP

OwenM

caveat emptor wrote: »

Haha yeah. I don't know though, I'd still think there'll be a need for it. Data coming out of SA is fairly concerning. Showing that previous infection doesn't protect against the mutant either.

That's the second time in 24hrs you've stated that, any links supporting it?

caveat emptor

pc7 wrote: »

I just don't have any faith in them dealing with it, they barely deal with parties, weddings, funerals breaking rules, just don't see them getting their sh1te together to do this (right) if needed.

Seems we are still working out the details.......Good to know

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1359158833483022338?s=20

Loafing Oaf

Cluedo Monopoly wrote: »

Is it true that 50% of all the Covid deaths in Ireland are from nursing homes?

Was for the first wave, AFAIK it has come down since

Galwayhurl

Whatever about businesses opening, the hardest part I find is the 5k limit. I find it very suffocating. I've ran a path into the ground in the local park.

seamus

Cluedo Monopoly wrote: »

Is it true that 50% of all the Covid deaths in Ireland are from nursing homes?

I'm not sure that specific figure is published anywhere.

However, 52% of all deaths occurred outside of a hospital. So make of that what you will.

More surprisingly, of the 48% who have died in hospital, only 2 in every 13 are brought to ICU. 85% of those who have died in hospitals were not admitted to ICU.

This is unfortunately the nature of the virus and its impact on older people.

Sweet.Science

is_that_so wrote: »

School are not deemed unsafe, they remained closed because of the level of rampant community spread and the unwise prospect of 1m moving about. It's also government policy to have schools open as soon as they can.

It's not up to the government though . How can they be deemed safe while the rest of the country is in a lockdown

Either it's level 3 and schools reopen or it's a lockdown and they remain closed . That's the line the teachers union will take and rightly so

Doctor Jimbob

caveat emptor wrote: »

Seems we are still working out the details.......Good to know

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1359158833483022338?s=20

The lack of action on travel while continuing to keep so much of the country closed down is really starting to piss me off.

is_that_so

Sweet.Science wrote: »

It's not up to the government though . How can they be deemed safe while the rest of the country is in a lockdown

Either it's level 3 and schools reopen or it's a lockdown and they remain closed . That's the line the teachers union will take and rightly so

It is, unions don't run the education system. They are deemed safer based on the HSE transmission data. Schools were open under Level 5 before Christmas so that's not much of an argument.

Sweet.Science

is_that_so wrote: »

It is, unions don't run the education system. They are deemed safer based on the HSE transmission data. Schools were open under Level 5 before Christmas so that's not much of an argument.

How are they safer ? It's clearly making up a scenario just so schools can open . If there is enough community transmission to deem a whole country has to lockdown then it's not safe for 25 people to be in a room together

caveat emptor

OwenM wrote: »

That's the second time in 24hrs you've stated that, any links supporting it?

Yeah.

That's professor shabir madhi (Professor of Vaccinology) going through the results.

About 12 mins into the video below.

"Where we experienced a resurgence due to a variant which we've now come to appreciate is not only more transmissible but it might also be resistant to antibody that has been induced due to past infection from earlier virus that was circulating as well as antibody that might be induced by many of the vaccines."

https://twitter.com/Radio702/status/1358722981229428736?s=20

Always_Running

Cluedo Monopoly wrote: »

Is it true that 50% of all the Covid deaths in Ireland are from nursing homes?

65% of all deaths have been aged 80 or older.

is_that_so

Sweet.Science wrote: »

How are they safer ? It's clearly making up a scenario just so schools can open . If there is enough community transmission to deem a whole country has to lockdown then it's not safe for 25 people to be in a room together

HSE data says they are not high risk, based on far lower transmission rates.

landofthetree

KrustyUCC wrote: »

Thye pretty much have set it up for 'another month' of the same bar Schools/construction

Reasonable set up of priorities in fairness to you

Could go like Match 5th Schools/Construction
April 6th after Easter Retail/Hairdressers/Gyms
May 4th after Bank Holiday Sports, Outdoor gatherings, travel limits gone, etc
June 8th after Bank Holiday Hospitality & Restaurants
2022 Pubs seeing as the majority never opened last year for any length of time

I do think they'll come under pressure to have hotels open for the June Bank Holiday though

We havent the vaccine supply to open up anything till mid-May.

Sweet.Science

is_that_so wrote: »

HSE data says they are not high risk, based on far lower transmission rates.

Again . This is nonsense . My sister is a teacher . What makes her safer in a school to be in an enclosed space with 100 other people a day than doing it outside of school

Genuinely curious

When she enters through the school gates does she get some sort of immunity

bb1234567

Cluedo Monopoly wrote: »

Is it true that 50% of all the Covid deaths in Ireland are from nursing homes?

40% roughly yeh
A few days ago there was a news announcement saying Ireland had hit 1500 nursing home deaths, around same time total deaths were about 3600

It sounds high(and is) but it's about average in most western countries

is_that_so

Sweet.Science wrote: »

Again . This is nonsense . My sister is a teacher . What makes her safer in a school to be in an enclosed space with 100 other people a day than doing it outside of school

Genuinely curious

When she enters through the school gates does she get some sort of immunity

I've explained why and it's the government/HSE/CMO explanation and I'm inclined to leave it there.

seamus

Sweet.Science wrote: »

How are they safer ? It's clearly making up a scenario just so schools can open . If there is enough community transmission to deem a whole country has to lockdown then it's not safe for 25 people to be in a room together

This is tired nonsense. We know that schools are safe. We had "25 people in a room together" during the previous level 5 and saw cases plummet.

NPHET's opinion is that schools are safe environments. The local data and the local experts believe they are safe environments.

The only people "making up scenarios" are those who continue to claim that schools are unsafe based on gut feeling and nothing else.

Some schools are already opening on Thursday. And some more 11 days after that. The rest of them will follow suit in 2-3 weeks.

Sweet.Science

seamus wrote: »

This is tired nonsense. We know that schools are safe. We had "25 people in a room together" during the previous level 5 and saw cases plummet.

NPHET's opinion is that schools are safe environments. The local data and the local experts believe they are safe environments.

The only people "making up scenarios" are those who continue to claim that schools are unsafe based on gut feeling and nothing else.

Some schools are already opening on Thursday. And some more 11 days after that. The rest of them will follow suit in 2-3 weeks.

So is it safe to do the same outside of the school gates ?

caveat emptor

The key slide on whether previous infection with an earlier strain prevents reinfection with the South African variant.

• They looked at the placebo group in a Novovax study that was carried out. i.e not given a vaccine.
  
• Carried out blood tests to see if they were infected prior with earlier strain.
• They followed up and compared how many for this new variant strain.
• You'd expect that those who had a previous infection would not be reinfected.
• They were equally likely to be infected with the new variant as those who were never infected previously.
  
• No difference in the attack rate of mild or moderate covid 19

caveat emptor

caveat emptor wrote: »

The key slide on whether previous infection with an earlier strain prevents reinfection with the South African variant.

• They looked at the placebo group in a Novovax study that was carried out. i.e not given a vaccine.
  
• Carried out blood tests to see if they were infected prior with earlier strain.
• They followed up and compared how many for this new variant strain.
• You'd expect that those who had a previous infection would not be reinfected.
• They were equally likely to be infected with the new variant as those who were never infected previously.
  
• No difference in the attack rate of mild or moderate covid 19

Mild and Moderate, what about severe? This is how it becomes an endemic cold virus in the long term

Eod100

https://twitter.com/JimMFelton/status/1359169733862580233

caveat emptor

caveat emptor wrote: »

The key slide on whether previous infection with an earlier strain prevents reinfection with the South African variant.

• They looked at the placebo group in a Novovax study that was carried out. i.e not given a vaccine.
  
• Carried out blood tests to see if they were infected prior with earlier strain.
• They followed up and compared how many for this new variant strain.
• You'd expect that those who had a previous infection would not be reinfected.
• They were equally likely to be infected with the new variant as those who were never infected previously.
  
• No difference in the attack rate of mild or moderate cover 19

You have to be careful with the results of that study. It was designed to test the efficacy of the vaccine in HIV positive people. It was never intended to test the efficacy of the vaccine against the South African variant or the risk of reinfection. Its unlikely the seropostive and seronegative were suitably matched by demographic and risk. There are also concerns regaeding the test used for antibodies. The numbers in the study were also quite low so overall it's far from conclusive.

caveat emptor

Deleted User wrote: »

Mild and Moderate, what about severe? This is how it becomes an endemic cold virus in the long term

The vaccine might still have some role in reducing the moderate to severe illness.

It's mentioned in the video if you care to watch it.

Do you now believe in reinfection?

Deleted User

Deleted User wrote: »

Their were entire classes off with confirmed cases before xmas in schools in town,and some schools hadnt enough staff available to open last week before xmas


This uk varient swept through schools in essex and kent last october to november??

In October and November the uk had the Irish equivalent of 2,000 cases per day every day on average. Thats how it became rampant. The impact of the new variant was overblown because it coincided with a community surge due to increased mixing. It was easy to blame a variant when the more complex picture was that the majority of the observed increase was down to mixing, with an added component of a new strain

techdiver

is_that_so wrote: »

That's AZ, not the rest and AZ made a bit of a shambles of the whole trial and were culpable in the delays themselves. Bear in mind they still haven't gone to the FDA. The delay with the EMA was for quality data, which they eventually delivered. Pfizer were upfront about the need to ramp up and that Q1 into Q2 was when that would happen fully. It was known that tiny Moderna were going to take until Q2 to deliver good sized quantities.

What you stated above is what happened, not what should have happened. My original point was goverenmtns should have supplied appropriate funding so that manufacturing was ramped up earlier before approvals.

For example, as you say above Moderna weren't big enough to ramp up on their own, so that is where public funding should have come in. Build entire facilities if needs be, This is not normal times and a bit of thinking outside the box wouldn't have gone amiss.

piwyudo0fhn57b

Interesting read

caveat emptor

caveat emptor wrote: »

The vaccine might still have some role in reducing the moderate to severe illness.

It's mentioned in the video if you care to watch it.

Do you now believe in reinfection?

I think if you look at my posting history, if you are really bored, you will find a lot of posts about the long term path out of this being the same as other cold viruses. Either through previous infection or vaccination.

What was been postulated by some last summer was that reinfection would result in repeated cycles of severe disease ripping through the population. That people who have previously been infected with Covid 19, The original version, who now get Covid 19 South Africa dont get serious illness is a good thing. Long term, once the bulk of the population have been infected / vaccinated, only the old may require booster, while the rest of us will have 1 more cold virus to add to the annual common cold cycle. Until the next novel strain emerges from an amimal somewhere

Drumpot

seamus wrote: »

This is tired nonsense. We know that schools are safe. We had "25 people in a room together" during the previous level 5 and saw cases plummet.

NPHET's opinion is that schools are safe environments. The local data and the local experts believe they are safe environments.

The only people "making up scenarios" are those who continue to claim that schools are unsafe based on gut feeling and nothing else.

Some schools are already opening on Thursday. And some more 11 days after that. The rest of them will follow suit in 2-3 weeks.

Have they defined what a “safe environment is” in this context? Was it explained Why is it safe for 30 people to be in a room for a prolonged time in a school environment but not others ? If a person sneezes or coughs in a room with 29 other people what does it matter if it’s a school or office or anything else?

I accept schools will be prioritised, no problem with that and I’m not against them being one of the first to open. But I’ve not seen anything comprehensively explain what is unique about schools. I see NEPHET repeating how safe they are but no information clarifying why, this is why I find it hard to accept this narrative.

Our contact tracing was awful so they can’t rely on the limited data they got from that. So what is it about a classroom that’s so “safe” then say a cinema or an outdoor amateur event? I’d be dubious on this not because they are wrong, but because I have not seen them give a cohesive explanation that explains how “schools are safe”. Do you have a link to this, maybe I’ve missed it cause I haven’t been paying attention as much the last few weeks.

techdiver

seamus wrote: »

IMHO, we could open up fully in June (assuming everything is otherwise on track), and while we'd see a short spike in cases, our hospitalisation rates woul remain low. It would be a gamble though, and an unnecessary one at that.

This all looks perfectly reasonable under a no-vaccine scenario tbh. The vaccine will accelerate a lot of plans. Some will probably be brought forward considerably - sports and small outdoor gatherings for example will be well feasible in April, if not mid-March.

Hospitality - certainly hotels and "residents only" restaurants will be open by mid-May. Restaurants will likely be almost fully open come June. Hotels are taking bookings from at least the June bank holiday onwards and many are nearly sold out for July & August. That doesn't mean they have to open up, but it does show where public sentiment is. And that will guide political decisions.

Pubs will open very tentatively, but even so I think July is not unreasonable.

All depends on there being no major shift in things of course, such as half a million vaccines being sunk in the Irish sea or something.

The vaccine rollout is a lot slower than originally envisioned. Reports yesterday that over 70's won't be fully vaccinated until May (source - https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-40222058.html). For the vaccine to be useful in stopping hospitalisations and serious illness we will probably need all over 60's to be vaccinated.

As much as I want it I can't see then loosening restrictions until that is achieved which looks like June at this rate.

eagle eye

Hardyn wrote:

It's nothing to do with Pfizer or Moderna tripping it up. The studies promoting it's benefit are of very poor quality. Even Merck the actual developers of Ivermectin are skeptical of it's value as a treatment and they stand to make a fortune from it.

Trying to get a proper clinical trial has been the problem. This is where they've been tripped up. There should have been a proper one done in November but nobody would take it on.
There are gaps in the data from a good few, but not all, of those clinical trials which have taken place but there was enough data to take it on and proceed with a proper clinical trial.
It's only now that a not for profit group have gotten to study all the data that we are finally getting the trial that will decide if it gets the go ahead.