Covid 19 Part XXXII-215,743 ROI (4,137 deaths)111,166 NI (2,036 deaths)(22/02)Read OP

D.Q

ednwireland wrote: »

because hes not going to be the taosaich that doesn't meet the american president basically

Is because trips like this are the sole reason men like him get into politics.

seamus

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

You clearly didn't read the article I linked, 3rd paragraph mentions an upward trend.

This is kind of off-topic, but you need to look at the numbers in context;

However other data sources point to a significant upward trend. In March and April of this year, 17 per cent of patients admitted to the National Spinal Injuries Unit in the Mater Hospital had sustained injuries in a suicide attempt compared to one per cent in the same period last year.

In March and April, the proportion of those admitted for spinal injuries due to suicide attempts, increased.

It stands to reason, however, that the number of people admitted for non-suicide injuries would have plummetted, given that everyone was locked down in April.

So that 17% doesn't actually tell us that suicide attempts increased. Suicide attempts may have dropped, and we could still see that stat.

The anecdotal indicators are that suicide numbers are significantly down. But I have discussed this before; the number of suicides that happen when things are really ****, is a lot less than you might think.
People with acute depression are more likely to attempt suicide when things start looking up.

It's April/May/June this year we need our eyes and ears to open. As "normality" appears on the horizon and as the weather starts improving, we could see a flood of tragedies. We all need to watch out for our families, friends and ourselves at that time especially.

ednwireland

D.Q wrote: »

Is because trips like this are the sole reason men like him get into politics.

absolutely,

personally i dont care whether he goes or not (maybe i should now i work for an american company:rolleyes:)

but lets be honest irish governments dont really care how anything looks as theres very little consequence to themselves.

TonyMaloney

Can someone help me figure this out please - according to the official data, in the last 14 days we've seen 953 admissions to hospital.
In the same period we saw 1045 discharges. A difference of -92.
And yet the same data source shows us going from 1552 in hospital to 984 in the same period of time.

Anyone got any insight into this?

latency89

latency89 wrote: »

Alarmingly thats the majority opinion in the vaccine thread

Boris and his team of experts made it all up and the whole world are following along, mutations are no problem, won't spread.

Don't post in there anymore after that, they are the opposite of anti vax, completely blind.

You mean the thread where people who actually read the full papers contribute post and debate, rather than just post selective twitter headlines?

Gruffalux

D.Q wrote: »

Not poster in question but I'm giving serious consideration to it.

I don't think the Irish public are the problem but the Irish government are completely insufferable. I can't stand watching Martin and vradkar. They aren't leaders.

I'm 31, no housing prospects, no social life currently, no dating, no nothing. Just lockdown, and working from home.

At least in a different country there would be more sun and I wouldn't understand what the cuunting government are saying until I learn the language.

If I had a visa and the money and a fairy godmother I would certainly go now to the Antipodes where one can live a normal life and run almost zero risk of bumping into a scuttering virus that leaves 10% at least of those that get it with prolonged post viral morbidity.

MerlinSouthDub

TonyMaloney wrote: »

Can someone help me figure this out please - according to the official data, in the last 14 days we've seen 953 admissions to hospital.
In the same period we saw 1045 discharges. A difference of -92.
And yet the same data source shows us going from 1552 in hospital to 984 in the same period of time.

Anyone got any insight into this?

I'm only guessing here but I guess there could be 2 factors:

1) Deaths in hospital (hopefully this is not the main reason)
2) I wonder if the discharges are people who have actually left hospital whereas the number of Covid patients in hospital could fall due to the patient now testing negative (but still being in hospital so not counted as a discharge). I think there was some reference to this at a HSE briefing last week.

Derek Zoolander

Gruffalux wrote: »

If I had a visa and the money and a fairy godmother I would certainly go now to the Antipodes where one can live a normal life and run almost zero risk of bumping into a scuttering virus that leaves 10% at least of those that get it with prolonged post viral morbidity.

is there new data around 10% number - that would mean 30,000 + in Ireland with post viral morbidity (given we missed approx 100k cases in first wave)

seamus

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

I'm only guessing here but I guess there could be 2 factors:

1) Deaths in hospital (hopefully this is not the main reason)
2) I wonder if the discharges are people who have actually left hospital whereas the number of Covid patients in hospital could fall due to the patient now testing negative (but still being in hospital so not counted as a discharge). I think there was some reference to this at a HSE briefing last week.

It's mostly number 2 AFAIK.

TonyMaloney

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

I'm only guessing here but I guess there could be 2 factors:

1) Deaths in hospital (hopefully this is not the main reason)
2) I wonder if the discharges are people who have actually left hospital whereas the number of Covid patients in hospital could fall due to the patient now testing negative (but still being in hospital so not counted as a discharge). I think there was some reference to this at a HSE briefing last week.

Cheers

Yeah, deaths had occurred to me but that would seem like a large number, and I too of course hope it's not attributed to that.

Your second point seems very plausible, but difficult to prove. Perhaps we should all just ignore admission/discharge figures until someone can shed some light on this definitively?

TonyMaloney

TonyMaloney wrote: »

Cheers

Yeah, deaths had occurred to me but that would seem like a large number, and I too of course hope it's not attributed to that.

Your second point seems very plausible, but difficult to prove. Perhaps we should all just ignore admission/discharge figures until someone can shed some light on this definitively?

There has been 500 to 600 deaths reported in that time frame and as far as I know upwards of 60% of deaths in this wave have occurred in hospital, so would account for most of the difference unfortunately.

TonyMaloney

Deleted User wrote: »

There has been 500 to 600 deaths reported in that time frame and as far as I know upwards of 60% of deaths in this wave have occurred in hospital, so would account for most of the difference unfortunately.

That would be very grim. It would mean that the good news we're seeing with the hospital numbers falling in recent weeks is actually terrible news, and the vast majority of beds opening up is due to death rather than discharge.

I hope to god you're wrong.

Gruffalux

Derek Zoolander wrote: »

is there new data around 10% number - that would mean 30,000 + in Ireland with post viral morbidity (given we missed approx 100k cases in first wave)

Numbers over time I have seen vary from 5 to 20% re post viral experience. So I have settled for a 10% which is quoted often enough if you google.

A couple of months ago I saw a report that the seroprevalence rate already sustained in Ireland was 13% - I dont know what report. I would not be surprised if upwards of 15% of the population have had it. But let us say 10% to be cautious.

10% of 5 million is 500000 and 10% of those infected having long term effects is 50000 to date. The research focus is becoming more clear on post viral effects now that the dust of health systems being bombarded is settling. Long Covid Clinics are being set up around the world wherever govts take public health seriously. It should never have been allowed to spread.

TonyMaloney

TonyMaloney wrote: »

That would be very grim. It would mean that the good news we're seeing with the hospital numbers falling in recent weeks is actually terrible news, and the vast majority of beds opening up is due to death rather than discharge.

I hope to god you're wrong.

This is anecdotal, but in this wave more patients were admitted from nursing homes to hospital than last March and April, this was partly to prevent spread in nursing homes, partly as it was felt hospitals could cope better with these admissions this time round and improved treatment protocols would give these patients a better chance.

Due to age and general health many of these patients would not have been admitted to ICU, we have had a significant number of hospital deaths outside of ICU as a result.

Derek Zoolander

Gruffalux wrote: »

Numbers over time I have seen vary from 5 to 20% re post viral experience. So I have settled for a 10% which is quoted often enough if you google.

A couple of months ago I saw a report that the seroprevalence rate already sustained in Ireland was 13% - I dont know what report. I would not be surprised if upwards of 15% of the population have had it. But let us say 10% to be cautious.

10% of 5 million is 500000 and 10% of those infected having long term effects is 50000 to date. The research focus is becoming more clear on post viral effects now that the dust of health systems being bombarded is settling. Long Covid Clinics are being set up around the world wherever govts take public health seriously. It should never have been allowed to spread.

if those numbers held through surely it would put a massive dent in the health service and there would be more substantive data available.

Need some real data to assess impact of this - some clinics would not be enough based on that %..

the most comprehensive study I found indicates significant ongoing symptoms for those hospitalised - but if only 3-5% are hospitalised then its hard to get to 10% number

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32656-8/fulltext

TonyMaloney

TonyMaloney wrote: »

That would be very grim. It would mean that the good news we're seeing with the hospital numbers falling in recent weeks is actually terrible news, and the vast majority of beds opening up is due to death rather than discharge.

I hope to god you're wrong.

If the decline in hospital numbers was due in the main to people dying, I can assure you you'd know about it.

Do you honestly believe if that was the case, you wouldn't see Tony Holohan in hysterics about on every radio and television news bulletin every day demanding a Level 6 lockdown?

TonyMaloney

Deleted User wrote: »

This is anecdotal, but in this wave more patients were admitted from nursing homes to hospital than last March and April, this was partly to prevent spread in nursing homes, partly as it was felt hospitals could cope better with these admissions this time round and improved treatment protocols would give these patients a better chance.

Due to age and general health many of these patients would not have been admitted to ICU, we have had a significant number of hospital deaths outside of ICU as a result.

Damn you, Johnny, but that does sound plausible too.

TonyMaloney

b0nk1e wrote: »

If the decline in hospital numbers was due in the main to people dying, I can assure you you'd know about it.

Do you honestly believe if that was the case, you wouldn't see Tony Holohan in hysterics about on every radio and television news bulletin every day demanding a Level 6 lockdown?

Ok, but who are you to assure me of that.

And no, whatever you might think of him, I don't think Holohan is a hysterical kind of guy who would push for extra restrictions that would have zero bearing on this problem.

I think there's two plausible theories on the table and hopefully we can get this answered.
A third plausible theory would be that the HSE data is just rubbish. Wouldn't be the first time.

Sweet.Science

b0nk1e wrote: »

If the decline in hospital numbers was due in the main to people dying, I can assure you you'd know about it.

Do you honestly believe if that was the case, you wouldn't see Tony Holohan in hysterics about on every radio and television news bulletin every day demanding a Level 6 lockdown?

Correct for the most part. If people were dying at that rate in our hospitals we would know about it

TonyMaloney

Sweet.Science wrote: »

Correct for the most part. If people were dying at that rate in our hospitals we would know about it

Well we've had about 1500 deaths since January and they all died somewhere.

Simply saying "we would know about it" isn't really good enough. Like how many of the 1500 actually died in hospital?
A lot of them, surely. By your logic isn't that something you'd think we'd know?
And yet we don't.

caveat emptor

I'm not getting personal but what you are suggesting is the Republic of South Africa (the country) is wrong and you are right (Stephen from boards). I do remember saying the UK are only talking about variants and transmissibility. I think that ship has sailed.

I agree more data is needed. I actually agree with most of the points you make. The real question now is whether it stops severe cases in older patients. Now we are into speculation.

Do you think given that it has shown zero reduction in mild and moderate in a relatively young healthy cohort (where no severe cases observed) that the relative effect on the older cohort will be different? Who knows but I wouldn't like to bet on it.

Here's why, if the variant has a mechanism to evade immunity in the young population it probably has the same mechanism to avoid it in the old. We know age is the primary predictor of severity so expecting a different outcome is hopeful naysay wishful thinking.

By all means claim no data but ask what or why would happen if we had that data.

The novovax trial also should previous infection does not prevent reinfection with this new strain.

I'd say the state of South Africa is probably betting on a different outcome.

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/02/south-africa-suspends-use-astrazenecas-covid-19-vaccine-after-it-fails-clearly-stop

Yet the South African trial of the vaccine, conducted in about 2000 people, found such a low efficacy against mild and moderate disease, under 25%, that it would not meet minimal international standards for emergency use. But scientists are hopeful it might still prevent severe disease and death—arguably the most important job for any COVID-19 vaccine. That was impossible to tell from this placebo-controlled trial because it was small and recruited relatively healthy, young people—their average age was only 31. None of the subjects in either arm of the study developed severe disease or required hospitalization.

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Couldn't be bothered with the rest of your post, if you want to get personal fire away, it's an opinion forum. Only person suggesting that others say variants don't exist is you but sure look your entitled to your opinion. People aren't saying they don't exist by the way, the questions are around data.

As for the above, summed up well by another poster and the below I would agree with,

1. Sample size is insufficient, a few cases either way could skew the figures wildly.
2. Confidence intervals are so wide as to make them meaningless
3. The age group in the trial doesn't allow for any assessment of impact on severity and hospitalizations
4. The definition for moderate cases is far too wide to make any conclusions (it's a few minor symptoms to being near oxygen support)
5. It's a 4 week interval between doses in the SA trial, it's already known that that's not a great interval for ChAdOx1 efficacy.

All I can say is thank the boards gods for the ignore button, good luck.

The sample size was half that of the original efficacy trial. The progress of the trial was why it was halted. Statistical significance would never be reached.
i.e it doesn't work

In participants who received two standard doses, vaccine efficacy was 62·1% (95% CI 41·0–75·7; 27 [0·6%] of 4440 in the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 group vs71 [1·6%] of 4455

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32661-1/fulltext

Sweet.Science

Sweet.Science wrote: »

Correct for the most part. If people were dying at that rate in our hospitals we would know about it

Not sure if you know many people working in hospitals, but they know all about it. Where do you think most people are dying?

Gruffalux

Derek Zoolander wrote: »

if those numbers held through surely it would put a massive dent in the health service and there would be more substantive data available.

Need some real data to assess impact of this - some clinics would not be enough based on that %..

the most comprehensive study I found indicates significant ongoing symptoms for those hospitalised - but if only 3-5% are hospitalised then its hard to get to 10% number

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32656-8/fulltext

https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0240784

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(21)00031-X/fulltext

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/long-covid-can-affect-people-even-with-mild-initial-symptoms-study-1.4452710

https://www.ons.gov.uk/news/statementsandletters/theprevalenceoflongcovidsymptomsandcovid19complications

Methods: An ongoing prospective, longitudinal, two-centre, observational study was performed in individuals symptomatic after recovery from acute SARS-CoV-2 infection. Symptoms and organ function (heart, lungs, kidneys, liver, pancreas, spleen) were assessed by standardised questionnaires (EQ-5D-5L, Dyspnoea-12), blood investigations and quantitative magnetic resonance imaging, defining single and multi-organ impairment by consensus definitions.
Findings: Between April and September 2020, 201 individuals (mean age 44 years, 70% female, 87% white, 31% healthcare workers) completed assessments following SARS-CoV-2 infection (median 140, IQR 105-160 days after initial symptoms). The prevalence of pre-existing conditions (obesity: 20%, hypertension: 6%; diabetes: 2%; heart 58 disease: 4%) was low, and only 18% of individuals had been hospitalised with COVID-19.
Fatigue (98%), muscle aches (88%), breathlessness (87%), and headaches (83%) were the 60 most frequently reported symptoms. Ongoing cardiorespiratory (92%) and gastrointestinal (73%) symptoms were common, and 42% of individuals had ten or more symptoms.
There was evidence of mild organ impairment in heart (32%), lungs (33%), kidneys (12%), liver (10%), pancreas (17%), and spleen (6%). Single (66%) and multi-organ (25%) impairment was observed, and was significantly associated with risk of prior COVID-19 65 hospitalisation (p<0.05).

Interpretation: In a young, low-risk population with ongoing symptoms, almost 70% of individuals have impairment in one or more organs four months after initial symptoms of SARS-CoV-2 infection. There are implications not only for burden of long COVID but also public health approaches which have assumed low risk in young people with no comorbidities.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.10.14.20212555v1.full.pdf

Sweet.Science

Deleted User wrote: »

Not sure if you know many people working in hospitals, but they know all about it. Where do you think most people are dying?

I'd just assume it would be ICU numbers that would drop significantly if all these people died in our hospitals . They are not dropping at any rate to match this .

So either.

People are being brought from care homes to die in a hospital setting to stop outbreaks

or

People are in hospital for non covid related issues . Catching covid then recovering.

Wolf359f

TonyMaloney wrote: »

Well we've had about 1500 deaths since January and they all died somewhere.

Simply saying "we would know about it" isn't really good enough. Like how many of the 1500 actually died in hospital?
A lot of them, surely. By your logic isn't that something you'd think we'd know?
And yet we don't.

The 14 day Epi reports list the number of deaths and how many occurred in Hospital. After just picking some random days, it looks like almost half occurred in Hospital.

OwenM

Wolf359f wrote: »

The 14 day Epi reports list the number of deaths and how many occurred in Hospital. After just picking some random days, it looks like almost half occurred in Hospital.

And the age profile of deaths hasn't changed massively which supports the statement that people are being moved from nursing homes to hospital to assist with infection control in nursing homes.

Happydays2020

OwenM wrote: »

And the age profile of deaths hasn't changed massively which supports the statement that people are being moved from nursing homes to hospital to assist with infection control in nursing homes.

And importantly that by mid May with better weather and hopefully super low number and with the most vulnerable vaccinated we should be in a reasonably good place.

Tyrone212

The 500 euro fine for going on holiday is touted to be increased 2 grand.

My question is, does that only apply to irish residents? Foreigners don't have to pay it?

My friends sister in galway collected a group of Spanish students from Dublin airport last week. Thought that was mad. So assume fine doest apply to them?

thelad95

Tyrone212 wrote: »

The 500 euro fine for going on holiday is touted to be increased 2 grand.

My question is, does that only apply to irish residents? Foreigners don't have to pay it?

My friends sister in galway collected a group of Spanish students from Dublin airport last week. Thought that was mad. So assume fine doest apply to them?

If the Spanish students are here to learn English that probably broadly falls into education which is one of the legitimate reasons people can enter the country.

Tyrone212

thelad95 wrote: »

If the Spanish students are here to learn English that probably broadly falls into education which is one of the legitimate reasons people can enter the country.

Alright. That aside, say a couple from Spain or France decided to come to Ireland on holiday. Would the fine apply to them? Or is it just irish citizens?