Covid 19 Part XXXII-215,743 ROI (4,137 deaths)111,166 NI (2,036 deaths)(22/02)Read OP

Arghus

marno21 wrote: »

The IT are reporting that we will exit Level 5 after 4 weeks of cases being less than 100.

That's even more strict than the ridiculously conservative approach taken in 2020, where we had to wait for cases to drop below 100 for construction to open and hardware stores to open (at that people were calling such events superspreader events on this forum).

Quite the U turn from opening pubs at 250 cases in December and then giving 3 weeks of nationwide virus transmission before Christmas dinner.

Somebody smells the fear.

Well, the forum is going to light up when people hear that tomorrow.

It’s hard to know what to think really. I look at dates like May and think, fcking hell, another three months like this. I don't blame people being depressed about that.

But, then on the other hand, I think restrictions pretty close to level 5 were on the cards until about April anyway and I think, personally, I could suck it up for a few more weeks if we really genuinely were trying to keep those numbers down to stay down - but that's just me, I know there's plenty here who will disagree.

May is a grim prospect, but is there any point in rushing into a reopening in late March, early April, if you can't guarantee that things won't once again go haywire once you start to open up. I understand people want to get back to life ASAP, we all do, but that was the case in December and it backfired spectacularly.

We're going to hear so much noise in the media over the next few days. I think we have to be a bit wary. A lot of kites are being flown.

bb1234567

I remember seeing a few people on instagram posting stories from here in the middle of the pandemic thinking how did UAE manage to keep COVID at bay with all these loose/careless tourists trawling in, in bars, no masks etc.. well seems luck ran out
https://twitter.com/AlArabiya_Eng/status/1360045714596913152

Galwayhurl

bloopy wrote: »

It is like a strange game is being played now.
Possibly it is an 'under-promise and over-deliver' type strategy they are going for.
Problem is that they have used this tactic a few times over the last year and now it just feels like psychological abuse on a national scale.
Sometimes it seems like they are just trying to break us.

I agree with this. In previous times, not just during Covid, the political way was to under promise and over deliver. The truth now is that, people are so exhausted and a multitude of problems are building up (waiting lists for operations/missed cancer diagnoses/mental health pandemic).

When before under-promising and over-delivering was a clever way of managing the public, the people are now so at their wits end that even when the light at the end of the tunnel is seen in a couple of months, we will remember the havoc that the incompetence of the government has played on the nation's mental health and overall well-being.

CrabRevolution

Whatever about mental health/the economy, I find it a bit disingenuous for people to include cancer/missed operations in arguments against lockdown. Cancelling screening etc. isn't a result of lockdown. There's nothing in Levels 1 to 5 that says anything about cancer or surgery being postponed at a given level. We were in Level 5 in November and cancer screening continued uninterrupted.

These services are cancelled because the Health Service needs all its resources in order to treat the enormous swell of Covid patients. The only way to resume normal service is to either:

A. Reduce the number of Covid patients to a manageable level to free up these resources again or
B. Only provide health care a small few Covid patients so that other services don't suffer.

We could end lockdown tomorrow and it wouldn't free up any capacity in hospitals.

JRant

Wolf359f wrote: »

So because the IT says it, it's true?
Lord knows they wouldn't sell papers if they didn't bull**** the headlines.
Let me guess, some unnamed government source?

People need to stop focusing on certain figures. You could have less than 100 cases for 4 weeks, but still over 100 in ICU, which would be too much to open with.

Same for the R0. You don't just nail a figure on that.
4 weeks at R0.4 is better than 3 weeks of R0.2 and then the 4th week at R0.3.
The first means it's stable, the latter means it's growing.

I'm sick to death of people and mainly journalists asking for a specific figure when it's safe to open up. For the journalists, Covid is the biggest show in town, so after a year, read up on it and figure out ****, so you're not asking the same lame questions time after time.

Yeah, the absolute neck of those people and journalists asking what are the metrics that will allow people return to some semblance of normality, maybe even return to a paying job. I just can't understand how they could all be so selfish asking such questions of those responsible for planning this.

Wolf359f

Wolf359f wrote: »

So because the IT says it, it's true?
Lord knows they wouldn't sell papers if they didn't bull**** the headlines.
Let me guess, some unnamed government source?

People need to stop focusing on certain figures. You could have less than 100 cases for 4 weeks, but still over 100 in ICU, which would be too much to open with.

Same for the R0. You don't just nail a figure on that.
4 weeks at R0.4 is better than 3 weeks of R0.2 and then the 4th week at R0.3.
The first means it's stable, the latter means it's growing.

I'm sick to death of people and mainly journalists asking for a specific figure when it's safe to open up. For the journalists, Covid is the biggest show in town, so after a year, read up on it and figure out ****, so you're not asking the same lame questions time after time.

You misunderstand R0 completely. going from 0.2 to 0.3 does not mean its growing. It means the rate of decline has slowed.

If you start at 10,000 cases, 4 weeks of 0.4 gets you to 256 cases
3 weeks of 0.2 and one of 0.3 gets you to 24 cases.

The R0 will always trend towards 1. It does not mean its growing however until it goes over 1

suicide_circus

greenheep wrote: »

Irish Times is now reporting likely full level 5 until May, this is now worse than last year. Losing hope here

Feels like that's the intention.

The government see no way out (or rather they lack the vision and testicular fortitude to make the big call) and are hoping to stoke the public's despondency and anger to a point at which their hand is "forced" by the vox populi to make the call and then blame us if it goes tits up.

Sierra Oscar

Philip Nolan on Radio 1 now saying it’ll take 6 weeks before numbers are consistently below 100 cases per day. No let up on restrictions before then it seems.

CruelSummer

CrabRevolution wrote: »

Whatever about mental health/the economy, I find it a bit disingenuous for people to include cancer/missed operations in arguments against lockdown. Cancelling screening etc. isn't a result of lockdown. There's nothing in Levels 1 to 5 that says anything about cancer or surgery being postponed at a given level. We were in Level 5 in November and cancer screening continued uninterrupted.

These services are cancelled because the Health Service needs all its resources in order to treat the enormous swell of Covid patients. The only way to resume normal service is to either:

A. Reduce the number of Covid patients to a manageable level to free up these resources again or
B. Only provide health care a small few Covid patients so that other services don't suffer.

We could end lockdown tomorrow and it wouldn't free up any capacity in hospitals.

I agree this was the case in January. However hospital numbers are dropping and the wave is over. Viruses don’t just keep going up indefinitely, they come and go in waves - particularly coronaviruses.

Prolonged lockdowns are inhumane and pointless. It’s like a vicious circle with no new ideas from our authorities. NPHET want an indefinite lockdown / restrictions of some sort to cover themselves as their sole remit is Covid. Vaccine rollout is a mess so they even seem to be talking up writing off summer in Ireland never mind abroad.
The Government want to suppress numbers so we can reopen to close down again.
The 5km rule should be challenged by every citizen in this state - it’s like keeping people in an open prison allowing them to only stay in this zone for months on end to ‘exercise’.
There should be some new strategies employed - like antigen testing of teaching staff for a start and let schools reopen fully.
Construction should never have closed for this long, why are we when nowhere else in Europe did?
Will people be happy to watch Europe reopen again in Spring / Summer while we sit here under 5km rule in crap weather trying to hang anyone by social media who tries to to walk on a Prom or heck even leave Ireland? The whole lot of what’s gone on in the last few weeks with the media and opposition parties in particular is a shambles. Let’s usher in totalitarian state laws, take away our rights even further while the numbers are falling and offer people no hope or plan.
I cannot help but observe that everyone involved in making these ‘laws’ and restrictions are actually going about they daily business as normal. They are not staying at home, they are not cut off from the world, they’re out and about at their jobs as per usual.

is_that_so

JRant wrote: »

Yeah, the absolute neck of those people and journalists asking what are the metrics that will allow people return to some semblance of normality, maybe even return to a paying job. I just can't understand how they could all be so selfish asking such questions of those responsible for planning this.

TBF nobody has any answer at present and our journalists have not been good on the questions at all. In this case they need to be fobbed off. I don't believe they have made a decision yet but they are talking about high levels. Balanced off against that is the state of people's mental health. Some will soldier on but a lot of others are becoming increasingly frazzled as this drags on. What may have an influence is the numbers of hospital cases, now at 943 and falling quite quickly. It will be a lot harder to convince people if all the indicators are very low in March and they may well pick a few areas to ease off on.

latency89

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

Philip Nolan on Radio 1 now saying it’ll take 6 weeks before numbers are consistently below 100 cases per day. No let up on restrictions before then it seems.

Healthy people need to stop going for tests, only way out now, I did that with my 2 kids when wife tested positive, we stayed home and didn't contribute to that rubbish

Israel have 60% of country vaccinated with first dose and have 4500 cases a day, they had 6000 a day previously at peak in early Jan

We have 800 cases a day now with a peak of 8000 cases a day in early Jan

We dropped ten fold, while they barely dropping cases.

is_that_so

BlowHard wrote: »

There was a way out and still is, zero covid.

Slow people still haven't realised it yet.

Does that include NPHET and the government? Because they don't think it is.

prunudo

Where are we going with this? Given the vaccinations are on going, the most vulnerable are getting theirs at present. Why is 100 daily cases now the figure we leave level 5.
We are not at a point where Oct/Nov level of restrictions is sufficient to reduce numbers.

I probably should add, the criteria of what is open in level 5 has changed so much I'm sure what you could call the Oct/Nov restrictions, but it's certainly more open than at present.

is_that_so

prunudo wrote: »

Where are we going with this? Given the vaccinations are on going, the most vulnerable are getting theirs at present. Why is 100 daily cases now the figure we leave level 5.
We are not at a point where Oct/Nov level of restrictions is sufficient to reduce numbers.

I think it's a case of not doing nor saying anything until they are 1000% sure. The ghost of Christmas past is still haunting their dreams!

runawaybishop

BlowHard wrote: »

There was a way out and still is, zero covid.

Slow people still haven't realised it yet.

Zero covid is not a solution. It does not provide a long term fix to the root issue. Calling people slow huh. The ironing.

latency89

BlowHard wrote: »

There was a way out and still is, zero covid.

Slow people still haven't realised it yet.

Was always the correct approach

China showed the world how to do it a year ago, only a few have followed

NZ, Aus etc with great success

You notice China are very relaxed about vaccines, it's like they think its not the only approach.

Israel is a basket case, war torn, extremists, a mess of a place and who are we following

Bloody Israel

Luke O'Neill and wanna be virologists here linking daily studies of how great they are doing

AdamD

marno21 wrote: »

The IT are reporting that we will exit Level 5 after 4 weeks of cases being less than 100.

That's even more strict than the ridiculously conservative approach taken in 2020, where we had to wait for cases to drop below 100 for construction to open and hardware stores to open (at that people were calling such events superspreader events on this forum).

Quite the U turn from opening pubs at 250 cases in December and then giving 3 weeks of nationwide virus transmission before Christmas dinner.

Somebody smells the fear.

And if this happens they'll inevitably slowly move down the levels. Level 3 isn't exactly a bunch of fun either.

4 weeks with cases below 100 when we'll have the over 70s likely already vaccinated is utter madness. There is supposed to be a balance, this is not it. Do they really expect level 5 compliance after even a week of case at 100?

is_that_so

AdamD wrote: »

And if this happens they'll inevitably slowly move down the levels. Level 3 isn't exactly a bunch of fun either.

4 weeks with cases below 100 when we'll have the over 70s likely already vaccinated is utter madness. There is supposed to be a balance, this is not it. Do they really expect level 5 compliance after even a week of case at 100?

Well, they are rewriting the plan and presumably the levels to go with it.

mcburns07

latency89 wrote: »

Was always the correct approach

China showed the world how to do it a year ago, only a few have followed

NZ, Aus etc with great success

You notice China are very relaxed about vaccines, it's like they think its not the only approach.

Israel is a basket case, war torn, extremists, a mess of a place and who are we following

Bloody Israel

Luke O'Neill and wanna be virologists here linking daily studies of how great they are doing

Melbourne had a lockdown for 112 days (Just under 4 months) up to the end of Oct. They're now back in lockdown again, hopefully they can get it under control fast, but if it ends up like last time they could be stuck in this lockdown for weeks or months again. There's no good solutions to this **** storm but the government should be controlling 100% of what they can control and delivering 100% of what they can alone can deliver. They're currently not doing either, not even close.

SheepsClothing

is_that_so wrote: »

Does that include NPHET and the government? Because they don't think it is.

It most definitely includes them.

suicide_circus

BlowHard wrote: »

There was a way out and still is, zero covid.

Slow people still haven't realised it yet.

How long does it usually take to eradicate an endemic virus?

prunudo

is_that_so wrote: »

I think it's a case of not doing nor saying anything until they are 1000% sure. The ghost of Christmas past is still haunting their dreams!

Christmas time and the lead up to it is a very social time of year. Hindsight is great but they lifted way to many restrictions at the one time. We are not going to see 8,000 cases a day from Oct/Nov level restrictions.

is_that_so

prunudo wrote: »

Christmas time and the lead up to it is a very social time of year. Hindsight is great but they lifted way to many restrictions at the one time. We are not going to see 8,000 cases a day from Oct/Nov level restrictions.

I'm inclined towards believing they will tweak things sooner rather than later but only in small ways because they do need to give people something. I think it will be a very slow reverse this time and probably May now before we see appreciable changes as things stand.

MrMusician18

MrMusician18 wrote: »

There is no one under house arrest you clown.

It is a criminal offence to travel more than 5000m from your front door.

But I think the abuse you hurl speaks for itself. No more interaction with you.

The HorsesMouth

latency89 wrote: »

Was always the correct approach

China showed the world how to do it a year ago, only a few have followed

NZ, Aus etc with great success

You notice China are very relaxed about vaccines, it's like they think its not the only approach.

Israel is a basket case, war torn, extremists, a mess of a place and who are we following

Bloody Israel

Luke O'Neill and wanna be virologists here linking daily studies of how great they are doing

War torn extremists or not we humans are all made of the same stuff. Science doesn't care about political ideology or wars. Same reason scientists think this island can do zero covid19. Why wouldn't luke o Neill think they are doing great in terms of vaccines? They are.

Ficheall

b0nk1e wrote: »

It is a criminal offence to travel more than 5000m from your front door.

How big is your house? :eek:

SheepsClothing

runawaybishop wrote: »

Zero covid is not a solution. It does not provide a long term fix to the root issue. Calling people slow huh. The ironing.

It doesn't provide a long term fix, but is much, much better in the medium term.

The options are clear, it's either a slow easing of restrictions over the summer, but with some form of restrictions remaining in place for most of the year with a "living with Covid" plan.

or

You get to single figure cases, while instituting mandatory quarantine for incoming travelers and then open the whole country within the borders.

Klonker

SheepsClothing wrote: »

It doesn't provide a long term fix, but is much, much better in the medium term.

The options are clear, it's either a slow easing of restrictions over the summer, but with some form of restrictions remaining in place for most of the year with a "living with Covid" plan.

or

You get to single figure cases, while instituting mandatory quarantine for incoming travelers and then open the whole country within the borders.

What happens when we get a few cases near the border? Lockdown the country again for a few weeks? We're too small a country for regional lockdowns, loads of people travel county to county everyday to work.

Turtwig

Construction and schools will definitely reopen. I'd hope they increase the 5km limit but given the challenge around enforcement that arises I'm not so sure they will for another while.

Who knows though? Hospitalisations are dropping and in a few weeks the picture will hopefully be very different. We are still in very fragile place so I can understand their reticence to give an overly positive message.

Klonker

Turtwig wrote: »

Construction and schools will definitely reopen. I'd hope they increase the 5km limit but given the challenge around enforcement that arises I'm not so sure they will for another while.

Who knows though? Hospitalisations are dropping and in a few weeks the picture will hopefully be very different. We are still in very fragile place so I can understand their reticence to give an overly positive message.

We are going in the right direction but I doubt many are asking or expecting easing of restrictions in the next few weeks. What we're hearing is no easing until end of May possibly, that's about 15 weeks away. There's not being overly positive and then there's just depressing and hopeless.