Covid 19 Part XXXII-215,743 ROI (4,137 deaths)111,166 NI (2,036 deaths)(22/02)Read OP

blackcard

TonyMaloney wrote: »

Sure. But if it's at the upper end of the estimate then it's bad news, right?

Like if I told you the estimated R number after weeks and weeks of strict restrictions was 0.8, you wouldn't exactly celebrate would you

It is somewhere between 0.6 and0.8, why would you assume that it was the higher figure? Even still, an R number of 0.8 is good and will continue to show a decline in cases.

Wolf359f

TonyMaloney wrote: »

Well, no, it's all relative.

An R rate of 0.8 is ok if you're dealing with a virus doing it's thing in an open society.

If the R number is 0.8 in a heavily restricted society, then you might have a big problem as you ease those restrictions

It's a valid point. But it also has to be taken into context of how many positive cases there are and the positivity rate. And the positivity rate is based on testing and where those tests are taking place. Hospital labs have a lower rate than the labs that service the community. We also have serial testing adding in which can distort the figure. We're not privy to the exact data, so we can compare it to previous waves to reduce the CI on the R estimate.

0.8 was the upper end of the estimate. We still have a few weeks of restrictions, so I would guess cases would drop over the next few weeks.

Don't be so negative, don't be like George Lee!

Vertigo100

Mr. Mobility Data. Says it all.

marno21

The apparent R0 increase is likely largely attributable to the restart of close contact testing.

The R0 is quite a rudimentary number when it’s based on case numbers/swab numbers which have many variables applicable to why and how they change.

Wolf359f

Vertigo100 wrote: »

Mr. Mobility Data. Says it all.

In fairness, he did spot the trends before the **** hit the fan at Christmas.

Plumbthedepths

Wolf359f wrote: »

In fairness, he did spot the trends before the **** hit the fan at Christmas.

In fairness a blind man could see people were going to move around more once restrictions were lifted after a six week lockdown particularly with only three weeks to Christmas.

Wolf359f

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

In fairness a blind man could see people were going to move around more once restrictions were lifted after a six week lockdown particularly with only three weeks to Christmas.

That sentiment certainly wasn't reflected in the thread at the time.

Plumbthedepths wrote:

Level 5 plus? 3,000 plus a day. Even McConkey would be embarrassed to use that figure.

Of course cases would increase, they have after every lockdown on this planet, the skyrocket of cases was not predicted though.

Plumbthedepths

Wolf359f wrote: »

That sentiment certainly wasn't reflected in the thread at the time.

Of course cases would increase, they have after every lockdown on this planet, the skyrocket of cases was not predicted though.

Point stands you restrict people for 6 weeks by denying retail, dining out , meeting family and friends then give a window with the implication that things will close again soon thereafter, what precisely do you think will happen?

Purple Mountain

Purple Mountain wrote: »

I find it akin to the brainwashing that was peddled during the recession: 'don the green jersey'.

We all had to don the green jersey.

The ones who demanded the green jersey the loudest lost the littlest.

When the people who had the least were told to give up their livelihoods, those who demanded the green jersey was worn voted themselves a pay rise.

Our Taoiseach has never sacrificed a penny in the "great national sacrifice". In fact, he wanted to create a special vaccination category consisting of him and his mates.

Wolf359f

b0nk1e wrote: »

We all had to don the green jersey.

The ones who demanded the green jersey the loudest lost the littlest.

When the people who had the least were told to give up their livelihoods, those who demanded the green jersey was worn voted themselves a pay rise.

Our Taoiseach has never sacrificed a penny in the "great national sacrifice". In fact, he wanted to create a special vaccination category consisting of him and his mates.

I'd love to see where you read that, I haven't heard anything about that, so I'd be curious to read it.

Wolf359f

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

Point stands you restrict people for 6 weeks by denying retail, dining out , meeting family and friends then give a window with the implication that things will close again soon thereafter, what precisely do you think will happen?

I'm not 100% disagreeing with you. But where do you draw the line?. If people were not told about the limited window would they have acted more responsibility?

Had the government decided to keep things closed because they couldn't trust the public to behave they would have been criticized. Had they kept retail and dining out closed and restricted meeting family and friends, we could have been in a situation where we would have had close to 100 cases a day over the Christmas period, while we're all stuck at home. They would have lost the public.

The government are ****ed either way, dammed if they do, dammed if they don't. Initially we were all new to this pandemic, we didn't know what to do. A year later, we all know what needs to be done (mainly limit contacts as much as possible) we as a society fail to do that. Our level of restrictions reflect that to some extent.

Plumbthedepths

Wolf359f wrote: »

I'm not 100% disagreeing with you. But where do you draw the line?. If people were not told about the limited window would they have acted more responsibility?

Had the government decided to keep things closed because they couldn't trust the public to behave they would have been criticized. Had they kept retail and dining out closed and restricted meeting family and friends, we could have been in a situation where we would have had close to 100 cases a day over the Christmas period, while we're all stuck at home. They would have lost the public.

The government are ****ed either way, dammed if they do, dammed if they don't. Initially we were all new to this pandemic, we didn't know what to do. A year later, we all know what needs to be done (mainly limit contacts as much as possible) we as a society fail to do that. Our level of restrictions reflect that to some extent.

I have said on many occasions closing non essential retail for six weeks before Christmas was stupid I also said telling people they were going into lockdown before the lockdown they were presently in ended was also stupid.
Government gave people the opportunity to mix for 3 weeks, many took that time to fit in as much as possible. Of course it was stupid, the attitude form most people that love the craic at Christmas sure I'm doing nothing in January anyway.
Last thoughts on this do you think in the absence of Social Media would warrant the same response to the Pandemic that has happened?

Wolf359f

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

I have said on many occasions closing non essential retail for six weeks before Christmas was stupid I also said telling people they were going into lockdown before the lockdown they were presently in ended was also stupid.
Government gave people the opportunity to mix for 3 weeks, many took that time to fit in as much as possible. Of course it was stupid, the attitude form most people that love the craic at Christmas sure I'm doing nothing in January anyway.
Last thoughts on this do you think in the absence of Social Media would warrant the same response to the Pandemic that has happened?

Telling people we're locking down, just to open for Christmas and then lockdown in Jan sounds ridiculous, now I say it out loud. The Government could have followed the advice and either opened retail and restaurants, but kept home visits restricted or the reverse, I don't think the public would have accepted it, especially with what would have been low case numbers. But that's certainly the fault of the government and messaging. The flip flopping and mixed messaging has to stop. Random ministers or sources quoting X while someone else in government says Y, has to stop, it's causing unnecessary stress and confusion.

I'm not sure what you mean about Social Media, but I find it a cespit. It causes more harm and damage than good. It's a toxic environment where lies and misinformation are peddled like it's fact.

Sorry, I just hate it!

dodderangler

Reading on the comments previous I love how everyone is so smart and cheeky
The safety of a phone or computer screen is just brilliant
I had it. My parents had it and relatives outside had it. None of us died. And arent exactly pictures of health either
So fir someone to die from it its gotta be some really bad underlying issues that no one spotted fir someone to die of it.

schmoo2k

dodderangler wrote: »

Reading on the comments previous I love how everyone is so smart and cheeky
The safety of a phone or computer screen is just brilliant
I had it. My parents had it and relatives outside had it. None of us died. And arent exactly pictures of health either
So fir someone to die from it its gotta be some really bad underlying issues that no one spotted fir someone to die of it.

All your saying is that your family circle has no underlying conditions? Met with an asthma consultant last week, who was on the tail end of the xmas surge and he was visibly shook, while we managed the spike (xmas and Kent variant) we were too close to capacity.

fits

dodderangler wrote: »

Reading on the comments previous I love how everyone is so smart and cheeky
The safety of a phone or computer screen is just brilliant
I had it. My parents had it and relatives outside had it. None of us died. And arent exactly pictures of health either
So fir someone to die from it its gotta be some really bad underlying issues that no one spotted fir someone to die of it.

You were lucky. Many healthy people get it and are very very sick

Anyway. Update from Leo if anyone interested.

https://twitter.com/leovaradkar/status/1360343216323706880?s=21

is_that_so

Mostly not been a fan of Paul Cullen during this , whether in questioning or in writing, but as always there are exceptions. A well-written and balanced piece in the IT today, which to me is a pretty decent summary of the no-man's land we're currently in.

Our current plight is unavoidable, arguably, given the Christmas surge. But politicians need to remember they are elected to find solutions, rather than “publicising pessimism”, as one doctor termed it this week.

Being cautious and conservative is fine, given what we have been through as a society, but failing to deliver hope will not be forgiven.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/approach-of-spring-and-summer-can-help-suppress-covid-cases-1.4483326

is_that_so

dodderangler wrote: »

Reading on the comments previous I love how everyone is so smart and cheeky
The safety of a phone or computer screen is just brilliant
I had it. My parents had it and relatives outside had it. None of us died. And arent exactly pictures of health either
So fir someone to die from it its gotta be some really bad underlying issues that no one spotted fir someone to die of it.

People's experiences of this are just different. They may come across as glib and uncaring but that's a coping mechanism too.

Jim_Hodge

mcburns07 wrote: »

What's your point caller?

Not that you care and just give a snide reply...they are not back to relative normality at all.

But carry on, you're a great laugh.

Jim_Hodge

dodderangler wrote: »

Reading on the comments previous I love how everyone is so smart and cheeky
The safety of a phone or computer screen is just brilliant
I had it. My parents had it and relatives outside had it. None of us died. And arent exactly pictures of health either
So fir someone to die from it its gotta be some really bad underlying issues that no one spotted fir someone to die of it.

So you were lucky. It affects people differently. I've lost two neighbours, an uncle and a cousin to this. All were fit and healthy before this and enjoying meaningful lives. None were particularly old and some were young. I have a neighbour, previously a very active man, now confined to a wheelchair. Count yourselves lucky.

niallo27

Jim_Hodge wrote: »

So you were lucky. It affects people differently. I've lost two neighbours, an uncle and a cousin to this. All were fit and healthy before this and enjoying meaningful lives. None were particularly old and some were young. I have a neighbour, previously a very active man, now confined to a wheelchair. Count yourselves lucky.

So 5 people you know that got it, 4 are dead and 1 is in a wheelchair, none were old and some were young. How many people do you actually know got it. Statistically you probably should have known thousands of people that have covid for these figures to make sense.

FintanMcluskey

Jim_Hodge wrote: »

So you were lucky. It affects people differently. I've lost two neighbours, an uncle and a cousin to this. All were fit and healthy before this and enjoying meaningful lives. None were particularly old and some were young. I have a neighbour, previously a very active man, now confined to a wheelchair. Count yourselves lucky.

That’s almost unbelievable Jim.

Some people are very unlucky

niallo27

caveat emptor wrote: »

Wow, on a general point. it's so interesting that people who posted " x will never happen" when confronted with said post immediately move on to.

"of course it was going to happen"

The hypocrisy is amazing.


Of course people don't like when you show them these posts as it's not fair to go back to what people originally said while they were shouting down others.

I've gotten warnings for being uncivil doing this. I wonder did anyone get a warning for talking sh!te. I doubt it. Rant over. Out.

Why don't we go back on the posts where you said hospitals would collapse in 2 weeks, which you posted a few times, you predicted 1000s of cases when we reduced to 3 figures. We all made wrong predictions on here, stop pretending your perfect.

Happydays2020

fits wrote: »

You were lucky. Many healthy people get it and are very very sick

Anyway. Update from Leo if anyone interested.

https://twitter.com/leovaradkar/status/1360343216323706880?s=21

So I have to join Facebook to get critical health information?

Turtwig

niallo27 wrote: »

So 5 people you know that got it, 4 are dead and 1 is in a wheelchair, none were old and some were young. How many people do you actually know got it. Statistically you probably should have known thousands of people that have covid for these figures to make sense.

Why do you insist on playing down others tragedies? It's a bit crass tbh.

Golfman64

https://m.independent.ie/irish-news/doctors-blame-virus-outbreaks-on-shoppers-complacency-40086220.html

Are the mob moving on to essential retail?! We’d be queuing for hours or resigned to home delivery only if the medical profession had their way!

I suppose it’s understandable that they will become more dramatic as they attempt to cling on to their publicity.

I’d much rather we focus on how we can reduce transmission rates in hospitals and other care settings.

giveitholly

Golfman64 wrote: »

https://m.independent.ie/irish-news/doctors-blame-virus-outbreaks-on-shoppers-complacency-40086220.html

Are the mob moving on to essential retail?! We’d be queuing for hours or resigned to home delivery only if the medical profession had their way!

I suppose it’s understandable that they will become more dramatic as they attempt to cling on to their publicity.

I’d much rather we focus on how we can reduce transmission rates in hospitals and other care settings.

That doctor is very naive if she thinks the only place people are going is to shops. If someone tests positive they are not going to say they were at a house party or visiting households outside their bubble

runawaybishop

Golfman64 wrote: »

https://m.independent.ie/irish-news/doctors-blame-virus-outbreaks-on-shoppers-complacency-40086220.html

Are the mob moving on to essential retail?! We’d be queuing for hours or resigned to home delivery only if the medical profession had their way!

I suppose it’s understandable that they will become more dramatic as they attempt to cling on to their publicity.

I’d much rather we focus on how we can reduce transmission rates in hospitals and other care settings.

The article just states people in shops should wear masks and not fondle items with dirty hands. This is something the general public can do themselves. The public can't really help with transmission rates in hospitals, and there are internal structures to address this anyway.

Jim_Hodge

Jim_Hodge wrote: »

So you were lucky. It affects people differently. I've lost two neighbours, an uncle and a cousin to this. All were fit and healthy before this and enjoying meaningful lives. None were particularly old and some were young. I have a neighbour, previously a very active man, now confined to a wheelchair. Count yourselves lucky.

That is incredibly unlucky, sorry to hear.

I come from a big family. 3 brothers and 3 sisters, all married with kids. At this stage 3 of those families all got Covid. They have all made a complete recovery with no "long Covid" and no side effects at all.

My pregnant daughter, her husband, her 18month old, both her parents in law in their sixties and their kids all got it. All continued to work from home, all were fine. I also have 4 friends who got it and are now fine. So far that's 21 people I know and they have ALL said it was like a heavy cold along with aches and pains, some had no symptoms at all.

Unfortunately my Mum aged 86 got the first dose of Pfizer vaccine 16 days ago in her nursing home and has since tested positive for Covid (4 days ago) and things aren't looking good..... she is failing fast and the doctor has warned us it will be days. I'm hoping to be allowed visit later today.
However she was not in good health anyway. So we expected bad news if she got Covid.

To my mind and in my own personal experience this is only affecting the older cohort of people, not younger healthy people (even overweight people in their sixties have fully recovered among the people I know).

Jim_Hodge

niallo27 wrote: »

So 5 people you know that got it, 4 are dead and 1 is in a wheelchair, none were old and some were young. How many people do you actually know got it. Statistically you probably should have known thousands of people that have covid for these figures to make sense.

That's some heartless posting. Of course I know perhaps 6 or 7 other who have had it and recovered with varying degrees of illness from it.

You are determined to play this down at every opportunity. Thus is as bad as the doom merchants. There is a reality out there that you're bent on ignoring because it doesn't suit your narrative,