Covid 19 Part XXXII-215,743 ROI (4,137 deaths)111,166 NI (2,036 deaths)(22/02)Read OP

stargazer 68

Seymour20 wrote: »

Big outbreaks amongst students in Galway may be causing it.

UL have offered all their students a free test this week. Could be adding to it too depending on when they started testing.

fits

Wolf359f wrote: »

It was flagged on Monday by professor Nolan that we will likely have 10 days of numbers plateauing as the close contact testing gets added in. after which they expect cases to drop again.

I hope this is the case. It’s disheartening to see this plateau.

jammiedodgers

Seymour20 wrote: »

Big outbreaks amongst students in Galway may be causing it.

Any more info about this?

Edit: Never mind, just see it now on RTE

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2021/0213/1196894-nuig-covid-helpline/

timsey tiger

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Interesting numbers, GP referral all well down. Lowest in a long time.

Close contacts probably playing a part along with outbreaks in certain settings

Must be a lot of asymptomatic close contacts

jammiedodgers

jammiedodgers wrote: »

Any more info about this?

https://connachttribune.ie/nui-galway-operating-student-health-service-following-covid-19-outbreak-on-campus/

Didn't think there were many students about, doubt it's contributing hugely to the overall national numbers. The positivity rate is a bigger concern.

Always_Running

Plateaued - reached a state of little or no change after a period of activity or progress.

We have 1009 less positive swabs this week compared to last. Which equals activity of progress.

I think lockdown fatigue is starting to play it's part.

TonyMaloney

Wolf359f wrote: »

It was flagged on Monday by professor Nolan that we will likely have 10 days of numbers plateauing as the close contact testing gets added in. after which they expect cases to drop again.

That wouldn't explain the high positivity rate. You'd expect to see higher number of cases with a lower positivity rate.

Morries Wigs

those numbers are crazy high -all this sh1t for weeks and thats the number pathetic

Happydays2020

[Deleted User] wrote: »

This misinformation comes up once every couple of weeks. It’s easy to verify you know when you read bizarre lies on social media

https://www.hpsc.ie/notifiablediseases/listofnotifiablediseases/List%20of%20Notifiable%20Diseases%20February%202020.pdf

Thanks for the correction. Claim was actually made on RTÉ radio today by a member of the Oireachtas.

MerlinSouthDub

TonyMaloney wrote: »

That wouldn't explain the high positivity rate. You'd expect to see higher number of cases with a lower positivity rate.

I don't know about that. The positivity rate in close contacts is usually in the 10% to 15% range. Philip Nolan quoted a number of up to 30% in household close contacts. Now, what we really need is data on the positivity rate for asymptomatic close contacts. We don't have that, but it could easily be more than 5% which would drive up the average positivity rate.

TonyMaloney

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

I don't know about that. The positivity rate in close contacts is usually in the 10% to 15% range. Philip Nolan quoted a number of up to 30% in household close contacts. Now, what we really need is data on the positivity rate for asymptomatic close contacts. We don't have that, but it could easily be more than 5% which would drive up the average positivity rate.

5% would see a drop, but I take your point.

I guess my thinking could be wrong, but I was certain the rate amongst the non-symptomatic would be lower than amongst those with symptoms.
It sounds like a no-brainer to me, but hopefully it's wrong.

Either way, contact tracing is an effective suppression tool so hopefully it'll start driving down case numbers soon.

Happydays2020

Happydays2020 wrote: »

Thanks for the correction. Claim was actually made on RTÉ radio today by a member of the Oireachtas.

McNamara I presume

MerlinSouthDub

[Deleted User] wrote: »

McNamara I presume

It was Louise O'Reilly.

ninebeanrows

Is there any talk of setting up compulsory quarantine hotels for COVID positive cases or confirmed contacts? this would have a significant impact on suppressing the virus.

MerlinSouthDub

TonyMaloney wrote: »

5% would see a drop, but I take your point.

I guess my thinking could be wrong, but I was certain the rate amongst the non-symptomatic would be lower than amongst those with symptoms.
It sounds like a no-brainer to me, but hopefully it's wrong.

Either way, contact tracing is an effective suppression tool so hopefully it'll start driving down case numbers soon.

There could also have been close contacts with mild symptoms who didn't bother getting a test but who now are being automatically referred. Anyway, the impact of all this should feed through quickly. It would be very disappointing if we don't see numbers falling significantly next week. I'm hoping for a 20 to 30% fall similar to progress we were making a couple of weeks ago.

Whiplash85

ninebeanrows wrote: »

Is there any talk of setting up compulsory quarantine hotels for COVID positive cases or confirmed contacts? this would have a significant impact on suppressing the virus.

Jesus Christ. Really?!!

MerlinSouthDub

ninebeanrows wrote: »

Is there any talk of setting up compulsory quarantine hotels for COVID positive cases or confirmed contacts? this would have a significant impact on suppressing the virus.

Sort of putting people in prison for catching a virus through no fault of their own? Happily, this won't be happening. We live in a free and democratic country. It has some downsides, but I wouldn't swap it for anything else

Polar101

ninebeanrows wrote: »

Is there any talk of setting up compulsory quarantine hotels for COVID positive cases or confirmed contacts?

No there isn't.

SnuggyBear

mcburns07 wrote: »

No it’s not being changed apparently, I can appreciate that restrictions will continue to be required for a while yet but some of them such as the 5km limit and closing 1000s of non essential retail businesses seem over bearing. Neither of these makes any significant difference to the trajectory of the virus.

I know people keep saying this but I genuinely wouldn’t be surprised if compliance really started to slip when an extension to April is officially announced, it’s like going on a strict diet, maintaining it for a while is possible but eventually most people revert to old habits.

The 100 fine is a nice little money earner when you think about it

ninebeanrows

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

Sort of putting people in prison for catching a virus through no fault of their own? Happily, this won't be happening. We live in a free and democratic country. It has some downsides, but I wouldn't swap it for anything else

I don't support it but there seems a huge amount of support for enforced quarantining of inbound arrivals in Ireland who have tested negative for COVID, so i would expect there to be even greater support for enforcing quarantine on confirmed cases!!

Turtwig

TonyMaloney wrote: »

That wouldn't explain the high positivity rate. You'd expect to see higher number of cases with a lower positivity rate.

The positivity rate remaining above 5% is a concern. However, close contact testing has just resumed and the variant this time around is more transmissible so you would expect that to skew the positivity rate upward.

Turtwig

[Deleted User] wrote: »

McNamara I presume

His ill informed diatribes are a hazard to public health. Someone who was given his position should have more cop on.

is_that_so

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

It was Louise O'Reilly.

She could have been our MoH, had SF got a few more seats! Loud, empty vessel.

Azatadine

is_that_so wrote: »

She could have been our MoH, had SF got a few more seats! Loud, empty vessel.

Oh my God.....could you imagine....

Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales now have the highest and best vaccination numbers in Europe! Scotland with it terrible weather, huge number of rural dwellers and multitude of islands...............is light years ahead of Ireland................and so is Northern Ireland. https://www.thenational.scot/news/19...-leads-europe/


This is beyond depressing for us stuck here in the Republic !!

Wolf359f

Turtwig wrote: »

The positivity rate remaining above 5% is a concern. However, close contact testing has just resumed and the variant this time around is more transmissible so you would expect that to skew the positivity rate upward.

You also have to remember the close contact testing on day 5, if they are feeding into today's swabs, they would have been identified as a close contact 5 days ago. I'm not sure if they are back to day zero and 7 testing yet.
But basically when working out number of contacts and their positivity rate, you need to look at figures a week ago, when case numbers were higher.

stephenjmcd

Wolf359f wrote: »

You also have to remember the close contact testing on day 5, if they are feeding into today's swabs, they would have been identified as a close contact 5 days ago. I'm not sure if they are back to day zero and 7 testing yet.
But basically when working out number of contacts and their positivity rate, you need to look at figures a week ago, when case numbers were higher.

Just to note we're back testing now at day 0 & day 10 according to the HSE

caveat emptor

Deleted User wrote: »

McNamara I presume

He's moved on from ladder fallers. He would do well do look a few people in the eye.

https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/status/1352722710984585216?s=20

The HorsesMouth

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales now have the highest and best vaccination numbers in Europe! Scotland with it terrible weather, huge number of rural dwellers and multitude of islands...............is light years ahead of Ireland................and so is Northern Ireland. https://www.thenational.scot/news/19...-leads-europe/

This is beyond depressing for us stuck here in the Republic !!

I really don't think people should be too worried about the speed of the roll out there compared to here just yet. I think you'll find we are all still living under the same restrictions. I'd expect our roll out to speed up significantly once the J&J gets going. We will also have the added pfizer vaccines (being made by sanofi) coming online at the end of April.
So the UK is going along 100kph at the moment and its going to stay that pace.
We are going at 30kph pace but by time J&J and the rest come on we will be at 120kph and catch up. Maybe not fully but by time restrictions are lifted I can't see there being much difference between us give or take 2 or 3 weeks..a month at worst.