Covid 19 Part XXXII-215,743 ROI (4,137 deaths)111,166 NI (2,036 deaths)(22/02)Read OP

prunudo

prunudo wrote: »

But I thought zero covid meant no lockdowns.
I still believe there is a happy medium between what we have and what they have in Australia/ New Zealand. At present I think a level 4 style is the best way to live with the virus. Non essential retail, hairdressing open, county travel restrictions and cafes open but unfortunately no pubs indoor or outdoor as its too hard to get a happy balance.

Indeed. Australia and NZ have COVID leaks, requiring lockdowns, even though they have literally no land border crossings, every single person into hotel quarantine and all imports effectively contactless (with good being taken straight out of the holds of planes into the local logistics network)

So, even if we got to zero Covid, imagine how many leaks we would have with 1500 truckers a day entering, subject only to unreliable rapid flow tests, plus inevitable border crossings. We could have hard lockdowns, with no notice (like today in Auckland) over and over again. Frequently. And for longer periods of time given that there would have been more spread before identification given the higher number of potential carriers. The uncertainty would be worse than what we have now

I can’t believe that people are still going on about it. It’s easy for SF to push it as they know it’s a populist move, which will never be implemented and which will make them look good. It’s a cheap shot that costs them nothing

Away With The Fairies

daydorunrun wrote: »

How do we deal with freight traffic? 100's of drivers entering the country everyday from the UK and the continent.

If we can't look at New Zealand, we need to look at Australia. Australia has closed borders between their own states. If they can do it, we can to.

The virus is here to stay, we cannot continue with what we're doing, it's not working. We should never have 1000 cases per day. What's the end point here? Low cases, open up again, and let it grow all over again? Australia/New Zealand lockdown for days to find cases and has some normality between their lockdowns. That's what we should have as well.

fits

In fairness, I don’t believe sinn fein are pushing for zero covid.

prunudo

Ficheall wrote: »

As a general rule, no harm to assume everyone is positive unless you know otherwise, but that's hardly the same thing as counting them in the stats.

There has been approximately 1,000 cases a day the last 2 weeks so we'll say 14,000 people at present who could be infectious.
There are approx 4.8m million people in the country so your chances of encountering an infectious person out and about is still extremely low. If you meet them in a supermarket its even less likey you will catch it as we're all masked up.
Spread is and has always been mainly caused in households, hospitals and care settings. Given hospitality is closed there are so few places for maskless interactions with random strangers.

Sweet.Science

fits wrote: »

In fairness, I don’t believe sinn fein are pushing for zero covid.

They can't . Because it would be put on them to get an agreement with the DUP .

Away With The Fairies

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

If we can't look at New Zealand, we need to look at Australia. Australia has closed borders between their own states. If they can do it, we can to.

The virus is here to stay, we cannot continue with what we're doing, it's not working. We should never have 1000 cases per day. What's the end point here? Low cases, open up again, and let it grow all over again? Australia/New Zealand lockdown for days to find cases and has some normality between their lockdowns. That's what we should have as well.

Our lockdowns, in your scenario, would be far more regular and prolonged (for the reasons I laid out a couple of posts ago), and would come with no notice. We would have very little normality, and the uncertainty would make any business planning completely unworkable

Sweet.Science

So there has been leaks that restrictions on gatherings will be in place until Autumn . Which is then peak season for hospitals being overrun so won't be relaxed then

So we are really looking at late spring start of summer 2022

Turtwig

Just like our weather nobody can forecast restrictions into the future. Just don't expect foreign travel.

Sweet.Science

Sweet.Science wrote: »

So there has been leaks that restrictions on gatherings will be in place until Autumn . Which is then peak season for hospitals being overrun so won't be relaxed then

So we are really looking at late spring start of summer 2022

Where did you read or hear those leaks?

Sweet.Science

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Where did you read or hear those leaks?

It was on the radio all morning

TheDoctor

Sweet.Science wrote: »

So there has been leaks that restrictions on gatherings will be in place until Autumn . Which is then peak season for hospitals being overrun so won't be relaxed then

So we are really looking at late spring start of summer 2022

If things are not open in the summer there needs to be protests and bodies on the streets.

What brain dead clowns do we have running the show... opening in the Autumn?? No words.

Sweet.Science

Sweet.Science wrote: »

It was on the radio all morning

Who was saying this?

Plumbthedepths

Sweet.Science wrote: »

So there has been leaks that restrictions on gatherings will be in place until Autumn . Which is then peak season for hospitals being overrun so won't be relaxed then

So we are really looking at late spring start of summer 2022

I tend to avoid RTE like the plague, I assume the gatherings they were referring to were large-scale events.

stephenjmcd

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Where did you read or hear those leaks?

Business post have an article saying the events industry expects the limit of 50 at an indoor gathering to be in place until September. Its all based on the 70% vaccinated by then.

But like everything nobody knows what happens next month never mind in 4 or 5 months.

Ficheall

prunudo wrote: »

There has been approximately 1,000 cases a day the last 2 weeks so we'll say 14,000 people at present who could be infectious.
There are approx 4.8m million people in the country so your chances of encountering an infectious person out and about is still extremely low. If you meet them in a supermarket its even less likey you will catch it as we're all masked up.
Spread is and has always been mainly caused in households, hospitals and care settings. Given hospitality is closed there are so few places for maskless interactions with random strangers.

I'm not saying it's likely someone you encounter has covid, just that in general (bubbles aside) it's safer to assume that they do. Stand that bit further apart, don't cough on each other, wash your hands, wear masks, etc. In some settings (medical, etc.) this won't all be feasible, sure. But as a general rule, it seems a reasonable precaution.

prunudo

Ficheall wrote: »

I'm not saying it's likely someone you encounter has covid, just that in general (bubbles aside) it's safer to assume that they do. Stand that bit further apart, don't cough on each other, wash your hands, wear masks, etc. In some settings (medical, etc.) this won't all be feasible, sure. But as a general rule, it seems a reasonable precaution.

Ah right, i know what you mean. I wonder post covid will people be less inclined to be in eachothers space. Used to hate people standing right behind me in queues as it was.

stephenjmcd

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Business post have an article saying the events industry expects the limit of 50 at an indoor gathering to be in place until September. Its all based on the 70% vaccinated by then.

But like everything nobody knows what happens next month never mind in 4 or 5 months.

For a second I forgot that future restrictions doesn't mean what we have now. I expect there will be some on indoor gatherings alright. And sure even with 70 or 80% vaccinated I'm sure they will find a way to keep some in place.

Ficheall

Deleted User wrote: »

For a second I forgot that future restrictions doesn't mean what we have now. I expect there will be some on indoor gatherings alright. And sure even with 70 or 80% vaccinated I'm sure they will find a way to keep some in place.

You think we'll have 70-80% vaccinated by the summer? What are we on now, is it 3%?

Happydays2020

Happydays2020 wrote: »

An inconvenient reality which is ignored. Not to mention deep and essential business between Dublin and neighbouring jurisdictions. Plus of course the border.

If the EU/EEA/UK were to row in together behind a "zero" strategy do you think it would be a good idea?

TheDoctor

Can we drop this zero covid fantasy. Its never going to happen.

Ficheall

Ficheall wrote: »

You think we'll have 70-80% vaccinated by the summer? What are we on now, is it 3%?

I haven't a clue Ficheall.

TheDoctor

TheDoctor wrote: »

Can we drop this zero covid fantasy. Its never going to happen.

Look, I would have been of the opinion that with vaccines coming it was no longer a runner. But now, with how long the rollout will take, with the likelihood boosters will be required by year end to manage variants. (Boosters from development into peoples arms will take 6 months.)

The sad reality is Europe and most of the world messed up massively last year, we gave up on attempted elimination within weeks and condemned ourselves to this sorry mess for the foreseeable, nobody wants to admit it but it's the truth. The countries that are "living" with covid are the ones that went for eradication or massive suppression. China, Australia, Vietnam, South Korea and so on. Rest of the world is caught of this endless cycle of lockdowns, restrictions, kids out of school, businesses shut, healthcare systems only dealing with essential stuff.

The fantasy is the idea that we can find some kind of magic balance with a perfect level of restrictions. It's nonsense. We partially opened for a 3 week period at Christmas and that has led us to a 3 month (and possibly longer) lockdown. We are making the same mistakes over and over and it is infuriating.

Richard Hillman

Ficheall wrote: »

You think we'll have 70-80% vaccinated by the summer? What are we on now, is it 3%?

Well be lucky to ever get to 70-80%, even with excess supply.

Once the over 70s are vaccinated, case numbers and deaths will be very low. Some that say they will take the vaccine but are a bit wary will probably hold off, the ones that say they don't know will not take it, and of course the No's will remain No.

There is an expectation that the vaccine will have an uptake of 90+%. It ain't happening.

CIARAN_BOYLE

Ficheall wrote: »

You think we'll have 70-80% vaccinated by the summer? What are we on now, is it 3%?

I think we are on 2% second dose 4% first dose done.

70% vaccinated would be a late summer aim (July August) rather than an early summer aim in my opinion.

[Deleted User]

[Deleted User] wrote: »

If the EU/EEA/UK were to row in together behind a "zero" strategy do you think it would be a good idea?

ZC would work if the EEA/UK/EU was treated as one block, with nothing in or out without mandatory quarantine or (with respect to trade) contactless hand off. The block would be self sufficient. There would still be some difficult borders (Serbia / Croatia springs to mind) but would be manageable. Any country going it alone is an utter non starter and not even worth debating any more

Deleted User

Deleted User wrote: »

ZC would work if the EEA/UK/EU was treated as one block, with nothing in or out without mandatory quarantine or (with respect to trade) contactless hand off. The block would be self sufficient. There would still be some difficult borders (Serbia / Croatia springs to mind) but would be manageable. Any country going it alone is an utter non starter and not even worth debating any more

Fair enough.

What Username Guidelines

Pitch n Putt wrote: »

Why the media the government and Tony Holohan have the people of this country worked into a state of frenzy especially the elderly.

People are afraid to open their front doors. People jumping off footpaths when someone approaches. It sad to see what’s been done to people.

Covid is portrayed as a near death sentence with the way it’s constantly shoved in people’s face.

Your a bad person somehow if u visit your grandkids etc.etc.

Travel limits are a waste of time stupid and ridiculous. You could travel to Dublin for work 5 days a week and maybe mix with people from many different counties in work environment but if you travel at the weekend it’s a problem. Give me a break....

Some people may react with stricter self-regulation, not everyone is gonna have the exact same reaction as you. I'm one of the people that jumped off footpaths back in 2016 when my kid didn't have an immune system, so anything, even a common cold, would have been a death sentence for her. You're incredibly naive and selfish to just assume everyone should just think and act exactly like you do, based on your perception of risk.

There is nothing more ignorant than sneering at the anxiety or fear of others.

And that feeds into your opinion that travel limits are "a waste of time stupid and ridiculous". Because some people can travel for essential work, everyone should? You think a fraction of people travelling outside 5km while the rest obey will have zero impact on cases?

[Deleted User]

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Fair enough.

Illegal immigration would be difficult too. Even with a militarised presence in the Mediterranean, hundreds of migrants would still get through. There would be constant lockdowns in more porous border regions to try to stop spread further into the interior of the block, and would need the Italians, Hungarians etc to buy into that approach (and financial support to do so)

Deleted User

Deleted User wrote: »

Illegal immigration would be difficult too. Even with a militarised presence in the Mediterranean, hundreds of migrants would still get through. There would be constant lockdowns in more porous border regions to try to stop spread further into the interior of the block, and would need the Italians, Hungarians etc to buy into that approach (and financial support to do so)

I never said it would be easy. It isn't, but it appears to me Europe is afraid of hard work.

[Deleted User]

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I never said it would be easy. It isn't, but it appears to me Europe is afraid of hard work.

You’re right. It’d be hard work, and border regions would need a lot of support, but if a vaccine had never come along, this would have been the only workable option. Would need an unprecedented level of political cooperation, but had a vaccine not turned up, fear might have driven that level of cooperation.

Maybe if all leaders had had a crystal ball, they’d have done some something along these lines. But the learning from this whole thing might be that we get a European pandemic response procedure set up and agreed, such that if and when something really nasty comes along, whether in 10 years or 50, then we have a pre-agreed coordinated response

Like everyone abroad has 48 hours to get home before the Europe border is shut, quarantine is put in place at the point of entry into Europe, and immediate Europe-wide elimination strategy is enacted