Covid 19 Part XXXII-215,743 ROI (4,137 deaths)111,166 NI (2,036 deaths)(22/02)Read OP

TheDoctor

Kunta Kinte wrote: »

Same as the other poster you are mistaken if you believe that is going to happen anytime soon. It won`t so you will have to keep your gloating in storage for a while longer.

How about we pick a date and compare our restrictions to theirs. I'll be sound and let you pick it. Then we'll see who was closer.

Kunta Kinte

TheDoctor wrote: »

How about we pick a date and compare our restrictions to theirs. I'll be sound and let you pick it. Then we'll see who was closer.

A date for what exactly? Ending of all restrictions including social distancing, mask wearing, allowing mass gatherings, wet pubs open, full sports stadiums etc etc? You need to be more specific.

Happydays2020

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

I'm the same regarding restrictions. The government messaging has never been as negative as it is now, which is bizarre considering we have several approved vaccines. I'm fine with the current restrictions staying in place with the numbers we have at the moment (with the exception of the 5k rule), but talk of keeping most things closed until May at the earliest seems ridiculously over the top.

I actually this the current Government messaging will do more harm than good. People need to have some hope - the negativity is extraordinary.

seamus

seamus wrote: »

We'll almost certainly be under 1,000 by the end of this week. Under 900 would be amazing, but a bit out there.

So close. Good numbers though. At 916 this morning. We were under 900 over the weekend, but a little bump last night, as expected.

Weekly drops;
25th - 30th: Down 454 (23%)
2nd - 6th: Down 330 (21.6%)
9th - 13th: Down 314 (26%)

Should be around 715 by Saturday this week. Under 700 would be a great number.

We're on track then for ~500 cases by the start of March.

ICU still very hard to predict. It could start to drop much faster like hospital numbers did, or it might continue to slowly trickle down. If we were at 140 this day next week, we'd be doing well.

TheDoctor

Kunta Kinte wrote: »

A date for what exactly? Ending of all restrictions including social distancing, mask wearing, allowing mass gatherings, wet pubs open, full sports stadiums etc etc? You need to be more specific.

Just a simple comparison of how each state is going about getting back to normal re. reopenings.

landofthetree

TheDoctor wrote: »

How about we pick a date and compare our restrictions to theirs. I'll be sound and let you pick it. Then we'll see who was closer.

Israel is thinking of opening stuff up from next week.

With 25% vaccinated all the vulnerable are covered at this stage.




https://www.timesofisrael.com/synagogues-stores-could-be-reopened-for-all-sunday-malls-gyms-for-vaccinated/

Malls, gyms, hotels, and other facilities could be opened to the vaccinated early next week, while street-front stores and houses of worship could be opened to the general public, according to television reports on Sunday.

TheDoctor

landofthetree wrote: »

Israel is thinking of opening stuff up from next week.

With 25% vaccinated all the vulnerable are covered at this stage.




https://www.timesofisrael.com/synagogues-stores-could-be-reopened-for-all-sunday-malls-gyms-for-vaccinated/

Israel is the most interesting case study and will be for the next few weeks. Eager to see how they go.

KrustyUCC

landofthetree wrote: »

Just heard some HSE stooge on Claire Byrne say we might allow inter country travel by late June/July. :rolleyes:

Very generous of them

Thats only 6 or 7 months of not seeing friends, family, partners in other counties

Intercounty travel was only allowed for 8 days at Christmas so if we take even up to June Bank Holiday its 8/229 days since Level 5 in October

Don't think people are going to wait that long and will just travel even with the threat of a fine

goingnowhere

Data from 600,000 shows 94% effectiveness from Israel. That matches with the trials data and a clear validation of real world efficacy. Not great if you are in the 6% but for a first generation vaccine that is unlikely to be beaten, especially as this is in older people.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/middle-east/study-finds-94-drop-in-symptomatic-covid-cases-with-pfizer-vaccine-1.4484846

The real question is there data on asymptomatic transmission rate coming.

Someone needs to do the math on the impact of this on the R0, if you can get the natural R0 to under 1 its all over

Deusexmachina

Happydays2020 wrote: »

I actually this the current Government messaging will do more harm than good. People need to have some hope - the negativity is extraordinary.

I totally agree. It is because they have zero faith in their own plans and systems. This is not leadership - it is utter negligence.

For such a generally innovative, creative and dynamic population, our public services are total rubbish and our political leadership is non existent.

Nothing matters except vaccination - it is the single most important issue in this country since WW2 (which we hid from).

We should mobilise all our resources, bulldoze away any vested interests and have a mission to get this done and dusted (by whatever means possible) by June.

That would be leadership.

Plumbthedepths

Deusexmachina wrote: »

] - it is the single most important issue in this country since WW2 (which we hid from).

Completely off topic but that is a false and ridiculous claim.

Kunta Kinte

KrustyUCC wrote: »

Very generous of them

Thats only 6 or 7 months of not seeing friends, family, partners in other counties

Intercounty travel was only allowed for 8 days at Christmas so if we take even up to June Bank Holiday its 8/229 days since Level 5 in October

Don't think people are going to wait that long and will just travel even with the threat of a fine

Anyone who might run the risk of being fined better have deep pockets.

landofthetree

landofthetree wrote: »

Just heard some HSE stooge on Claire Byrne say we might allow inter country travel by late June/July. :rolleyes:

that stooge was Dr Gabriel (Hysteria) Scally. He also suggested Covid is now being spread in supermarkets, that we need to wear far more impenetrable medical masks (not the cotton ones) and that "long Covid" is causing huge issues even in children who could end up with disabilities from it...........!! :eek:.....at this point Claire Byrne said "thank you very much as always".

It sounding more like desperation at this stage, trying to keep people on board. Its not working. Dr Scally is creating his own echo chamber and RTE are desperately hanging in there. The more positivity there is from the UK, the worse the negativity gets here. Its bizarre and the irony is its actually counter productive. People are simply not buying it anymore.

quokula

Deusexmachina wrote: »

I totally agree. It is because they have zero faith in their own plans and systems. This is not leadership - it is utter negligence.

For such a generally innovative, creative and dynamic population, our public services are total rubbish and our political leadership is non existent.

Nothing matters except vaccination - it is the single most important issue in this country since WW2 (which we hid from).

We should mobilise all our resources, bulldoze away any vested interests and have a mission to get this done and dusted (by whatever means possible) by June.

That would be leadership.

Our rate of vaccination is in line with or ahead of most of the EU. It's ahead of Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Finland, Sweden, Greece and many others. It's ahead of nearly every country in the world with just a dozen or so exceptions.

We can't vaccinate more people than vaccines exist.

Lucas Hood

Kunta Kinte wrote: »

Anyone who might run the risk of being fined better have deep pockets.

What are the consequences for not paying the fines?

marno21

Lucas Hood wrote: »

What are the consequences for not paying the fines?

Summons to court. Same as traffic fines.

titan18

Kunta Kinte wrote: »

Anyone who might run the risk of being fined better have deep pockets.

They can't fine/imprison everyone if there's mass disregard for it

Plumbthedepths

Lucas Hood wrote: »

What are the consequences for not paying the fines?

I doubt a €100 fine will mean destitution for anyone. If they receive one.

TonyMaloney

Deleted User wrote: »

that stooge was Dr Gabriel (Hysteria) Scally. He also suggested Covid is now being spread in supermarkets, that we need to wear far more impenetrable medical masks (not the cotton ones) and that "long Covid" is causing huge issues even in children who could end up with disabilities from it...........!! :eek:.....at this point Claire Byrne said "thank you very much as always".

It sounding more like desperation at this stage, trying to keep people on board. Its not working. Dr Scally is creating his own echo chamber and RTE are desperately hanging in there. The more positivity there is from the UK, the worse the negativity gets here. Its bizarre and the irony is its actually counter productive. People are simply not buying it anymore.

More than 200 children suffered from long-term covid in Stockholm

More and more children are being investigated for long-term covid at the newly started specialist clinic at Astrid Lindgren's Hospital in Stockholm. The idea was that 20 children would be received, but more than twice have been referred. New figures from the Stockholm Region produced by SVT show that over 200 children in the region have been diagnosed with long-term covid.

- Some go to school, some are completely bedridden, says Malin Ryd Linder, chief physician at the specialist clinic for long-term sick children in Stockholm.

It's in Swedish, but Chrome will translate it for you

https://www.svt.se/nyheter/lokalt/stockholm/allt-fler-barn-utreds-for-langtidscovid

Lucas Hood

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

I doubt a €100 fine will mean destitution for anyone. If they receive one.

Those who consistently break the restrictions aren't likely to pay fines imo.

Deusexmachina

quokula wrote: »

Our rate of vaccination is in line with or ahead of most of the EU. It's ahead of Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Finland, Sweden, Greece and many others. It's ahead of nearly every country in the world with just a dozen or so exceptions.

We can't vaccinate more people than vaccines exist.

And we can't flap our wings and fly either but that's not the point.

We are shortly going to have millions of vaccine doses. Are you confident that we will vaccinate everybody as quickly as possible?

Kunta Kinte

titan18 wrote: »

They can't fine/imprison everyone if there's mass disregard for it

Why do you think people can`t be fined? They can and have been regardless of the numbers involved. BTW who other than yourself mentioned imprisoning anyone?

seamus

quokula wrote: »

Our rate of vaccination is in line with or ahead of most of the EU. It's ahead of Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Finland, Sweden, Greece and many others. It's ahead of nearly every country in the world with just a dozen or so exceptions.

We can't vaccinate more people than vaccines exist.

People also don't seem to get economies of scale. We cannot demand more than our share of the available vaccines, and we can't make special deals to get more; we can't afford it.

There is also a functional limit on just how many vaccinations can be carried out. The UK has now done enough first doses to fully vaccinate our population 3 times over.
Even if we could, for the sake of argument, get 10 million doses next week, next we need to consider that the UK has 80,000 vaccinators, which is about 5% of the NHS staff.

Our entire healthcare system - everyone, healthcare staff, admin staff, porters - is 100,000 people.

So even if we had all the doses we needed, we would have to second every single qualified healthcare worker in the state, have them abandon what they're doing, and do nothing but vaccinations.

And that's before you get to the logisitics of setting up the facilities to administer 250,000 doses a day, and all of the staff and resources you would need to achieve that.

gmisk

seamus wrote: »

People also don't seem to get economies of scale. We cannot demand more than our share of the available vaccines, and we can't make special deals to get more; we can't afford it.

There is also a functional limit on just how many vaccinations can be carried out. The UK has now done enough first doses to fully vaccinate our population 3 times over.
Even if we could, for the sake of argument, get 10 million doses next week, next we need to consider that the UK has 80,000 vaccinators, which is about 5% of the NHS staff.

Our entire healthcare system - everyone, healthcare staff, admin staff, porters - is 100,000 people.

So even if we had all the doses we needed, we would have to second every single qualified healthcare worker in the state, have them abandon what they're doing, and do nothing but vaccinations.

And that's before you get to the logisitics of setting up the facilities to administer 250,000 doses a day, and all of the staff and resources you would need to achieve that.

Other countries have made deals to get more vaccines though? Like Germany

Kunta Kinte

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

I doubt a €100 fine will mean destitution for anyone. If they receive one.

What is to stop a heavier fine being imposed? If it can be implemented for non essential foreign travel it can be brought in for this as well albeit a lesser amount.

Lucas Hood

Kunta Kinte wrote: »

Why do you think people can`t be fined? They can and have been regardless of the numbers involved. BTW who other than yourself mentioned imprisoning anyone?

What measures are in place for people who don't pay the fines?

robbiezero

landofthetree wrote: »

Just heard some HSE stooge on Claire Byrne say we might allow inter country travel by late June/July. :rolleyes:

Good luck with that. Most people I know will be doing it in March.

Plumbthedepths

Kunta Kinte wrote: »

What is to stop a heavier fine being imposed? If it can be implemented for non essential foreign travel it can be brought in for this as well albeit a lesser amount.

Then every trip becomes essential, just like essential dental care in Tenerife. ;-)

robbiezero

Kunta Kinte wrote: »

What is to stop a heavier fine being imposed? If it can be implemented for non essential foreign travel it can be brought in for this as well albeit a lesser amount.

Support bubble is all you need to say.

seamus

gmisk wrote: »

Other countries have made deals to get more vaccines though? Like Germany

Germany aren't getting doses any faster though. Germany's extra doses will come after the EU's full allocation has been delivered and distributed.

If the goal is faster distribution, then there's basically nothing anyone can do to speed it up except make sure their supplies are arriving safely.

When we get to May/June we might begin to see some discrepancies. We've bet on having access to a range of vaccines. Germany have bought a load of extra doses. So if, when the EU's allocation is fully delivered, there is a shortfall in other supplies, Germany will have a buffer of the extra doses they have on backorder.