Covid 19 Part XXXII-215,743 ROI (4,137 deaths)111,166 NI (2,036 deaths)(22/02)Read OP

D.Q

Sanjuro wrote: »

If we weren’t in the middle of a pandemic, the path of Stephen Donnelly’s career and the continuous and relentless self-owns would be quite comical.

Can we just get together springfield style and fire him into the sun

TheDoctor

CruelSummer wrote: »

This isn’t the most sensible date by the Government. The virus will spread less in the summer months and start increasing again from the Autumn. We’re coming up on a year of this now so we can see what it does.

Exactly. You need to be open in June. People need the summer months open. All the high risk groups SHOULD be vaccinated by then. And with seasonality effecting the virus its not going to get any better in the Autumn. I really really dont get waiting for September.

Turtwig

TheDoctor wrote: »

Yeah. Covid is here long term now. Not going anywhere. Vaccines mean less deaths and hospitalisations but it will still be around. Still have cases etc

Covid isn't going anywhere. That's true. The impact of covid is changeable and well within our control. If we play our cards right we will have a normal life again. We will still have to manage covid for some time to come but that doesn't mean a life like 2019 isn't impossible. It's just going to take a while.

igCorcaigh

newmember? wrote: »

Can someone answer me re vaccines - the current vaccine rollouts will attempt at vaccinating people so that people will not fall sick from Covid and so not overwhelm the health services. The vaccination does not prevent the reproduction or transmission of the virus, so what's the eventual outcome?

I think that last bit is still unclear, but the outcome from your first statement is obvious. Less illness and less pressure on the health system, which is great.

ShooterSF

TheDoctor wrote: »

Exactly. You need to be open in June. People need the summer months open. All the high risk groups SHOULD be vaccinated by then. And with seasonality effecting the virus its not going to get any better in the Autumn. I really really dont get waiting for September.

I'm no statistician but I'm guessing those that work for the govt are possibly suggesting that estimates would still see our healthcare system overrun by people who aren't high risk (of dying I assume?) still getting very sick. Plus I think there's 2 sides to try and balance ethically, people's livelihoods and sanity over a summer and letting more people get sick and die from a dangerous disease we have a vaccine rolling out for which would hopefully be complete just a few months later. I don't think arguing either side is inherently wrong.

Turtwig

newmember? wrote: »

Can someone answer me re vaccines - the current vaccine rollouts will attempt at vaccinating people so that people will not fall sick from Covid and so not overwhelm the health services. The vaccination does not prevent the reproduction or transmission of the virus, so what's the eventual outcome?

I'm going to cheat here a little:
If everyone is vaccinated there is almost nobody for the virus to infect to the point of requiring health care. Prevention of transmission becomes a bit moot.

If a vaccine primes the immune system to deal with the virus faster then a person should be infectious for a shorter period of time. That should reduce the rate of transmission though it may not stop it entirely.

The vaccines were designed for preventing illness and infection as that is the priority. However they should also reduce transmission it just wasn't feasible to set the initial trials that way. The preliminary info we have suggests they do reduce transmission. The picture for that will become clearer as more and more are vaccinated.

Happydays2020

ShooterSF wrote: »

I'm no statistician but I'm guessing those that work for the govt are possibly suggesting that estimates would still see our healthcare system overrun by people who aren't high risk (of dying I assume?) still getting very sick. Plus I think there's 2 sides to try and balance ethically, people's livelihoods and sanity over a summer and letting more people get sick and die from a dangerous disease we have a vaccine rolling out for which would hopefully be complete just a few months later. I don't think arguing either side is inherently wrong.

Except that does not follow the science - the vast majority of people under 65 who get this virus do not get very sick and it will not over run the health service.

I can understand the fear that the virus will mutate if let go wild and that is why some restrictions will still be needed until most of the adult population is vaccinated. But not to the extent that people cannot enjoy a reasonably normal summer.

Wolf359f

Happydays2020 wrote: »

Except that does not follow the science - the vast majority of people under 65 who get this virus do not get very sick and it will not over run the health service.

I can understand the fear that the virus will mutate if let go wild and that is why some restrictions will still be needed until most of the adult population is vaccinated. But not to the extent that people cannot enjoy a reasonably normal summer.

The under 65's account for 50% of all hospitalisations and ICU admissions, so they can over run the health service.

newmember2

Turtwig wrote: »

I'm going to cheat here a little:
If everyone is vaccinated there is almost nobody for the virus to infect to the point of requiring health care. Prevention of transmission becomes a bit moot...

I don't think you can really say this. If everyone is vaccinated, the vaccination is not 100% effective. The virus continues to transmit and reproduce, possibly mutating also, infecting and affecting that percentage not defended by the vaccine. At the same time society has opened up and vaccinated people are transmitting virus like asymptomatics. The virus is reproducing freely and uncontrollably.

newmember?

newmember? wrote: »

I don't think you can really say this. If everyone is vaccinated, the vaccination is not 100% effective. The virus continues to transmit and reproduce, possibly mutating also, infecting and affecting that percentage not defended by the vaccine. At the same time society has opened up and vaccinated people are transmitting virus like asymptomatics. The virus is reproducing freely and uncontrollably.

Not really. The attack rate of asymptomatic infection is considerably less than symptomatic. It can't mutate if it can't spread.

igCorcaigh

newmember? wrote: »

I don't think you can really say this. If everyone is vaccinated, the vaccination is not 100% effective. The virus continues to transmit and reproduce, possibly mutating also, infecting and affecting that percentage not defended by the vaccine. At the same time society has opened up and vaccinated people are transmitting virus like asymptomatics. The virus is reproducing freely and uncontrollably.

The virus will only propagate with an R0 of under 1 though.

I think I see what you mean. But I'm hoping vaccination will still reduce R0 to under 1?

Spanish Eyes

Did I dream it or did I read somewhere earlier that Denmark is top dog re Delivery of vaccines.
There are in Eu
They have a similar population to ourselves. Maybe I dreamt it.

Would Union and H and S issues be affecting our rollout?

Anyway, I think it is a command and control thing now. Slowly, slowly or the whole country will go bananas in a weekend. Which could happen too lol

igCorcaigh

Hardyn wrote: »

Not really. The attack rate of asymptomatic infection is considerably less than symptomatic.

Do you mean Reproduction rate (R) rather than attack rate? I'm not aware that asymptomatic people spread the virus less than those with symptoms?

igCorcaigh

igCorcaigh wrote: »

Do you mean Reproduction rate (R) rather than attack rate? I'm not aware that asymptomatic people spread the virus less than those with symptoms?

Nope. I meant attack rate. Asymptomatic infections (n.b. NOT presymptomatic) are much less likely to spread the virus.

igCorcaigh

Hardyn wrote: »

Nope. I meant attack rate. Asymptomatic infections (n.b. NOT presymptomatic) are much less likely to spread the virus.

Good to hear that asymp do not transmit as much virus to others. One of the infuriating things I find in reports was the lack of discrimination between true asymp and those just pre symptoms.

My understanding of attack rate is the percentage of a population that is infected by a pathogen over time, I could very well be wrong!

0gac3yjefb5sv7

IF everyone is vaccinated by September ( being optimistic ), is it not the end of this thing then? How would it spread or affect our population?

Polar101

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Would Union and H and S issues be affecting our rollout?

No, supply and demand is affecting the rollout.

It's difficult to fathom how anyone could point to unions as the root cause of any vaccination issues at the moment.

TheDoctor

TheDoctor wrote: »

Exactly. You need to be open in June. People need the summer months open. All the high risk groups SHOULD be vaccinated by then. And with seasonality effecting the virus its not going to get any better in the Autumn. I really really dont get waiting for September.

If we have enough of the population vaccinated by September then why do the Autumn and Winter months matter?

Goldengirl

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Did I dream it or did I read somewhere earlier that Denmark is top dog re Delivery of vaccines.
There are in Eu
They have a similar population to ourselves. Maybe I dreamt it.

Would Union and H and S issues be affecting our rollout?

Anyway, I think it is a command and control thing now. Slowly, slowly or the whole country will go bananas in a weekend. Which could happen too lol

Nothing to do with unions
It is completely down to logistics of reorganising the nRNA vaccines for older age groups following the decision that over 65s were not optimally served by AZ vaccine.
This would have been much simpler to organise for those less mobile of course.
Also they are going as fast as supply.
H and S would of course be very important in administering any drug to the population.

Widdensushi

So the health service has been less overrun than recent years thankfully, the health service has been vaccinated which was a big source of infection, I presume elective surgery is back on? Open the country up, mm would want to wake up from his shamrock daze, if restaurants etc are closed open up.

Widdensushi

I gave a couple of days on a trolley last year, I was well treated, if I had to pick a problem it was that women were alongside me, I felt it was more difficult for them and there were plenty of options for the staff to separate us rather than making them feel uncomfortable.

theballz

Widdensushi wrote: »

So the health service has been less overrun than recent years thankfully, the health service has been vaccinated which was a big source of infection, I presume elective surgery is back on? Open the country up, mm would want to wake up from his shamrock daze, if restaurants etc are closed open up.

The health service is less over run? Where are you reading this?

It is not normal for the state to have over 100 people in ICU. Right now we have 158 confirmed cases.

You are miles off.

Happydays2020

Wolf359f wrote: »

The under 65's account for 50% of all hospitalisations and ICU admissions, so they can over run the health service.

That is not true. The under 65’s do not account for 50% of hospitalisations.

CIARAN_BOYLE

Widdensushi wrote: »

So the health service has been less overrun than recent years thankfully, the health service has been vaccinated which was a big source of infection, I presume elective surgery is back on? Open the country up, mm would want to wake up from his shamrock daze, if restaurants etc are closed open up.

Not sure how you came to that conclusion. The health service was under insane strain.

Given that reserve icu is kept for elective procedures and peace time icu is almost entirely full with cover cases I really doubt it.

Veradkar recently said we won't open up significantly until icu numbers are below 50. I think he is right there.

SnuggyBear

Kunta Kinte wrote: »

Anyone who might run the risk of being fined better have deep pockets.

Tell them sorry guard im out for a drive to clear the head and they will send you on your way.

Jim_Hodge

Widdensushi wrote: »

So the health service has been less overrun than recent years thankfully, the health service has been vaccinated which was a big source of infection, I presume elective surgery is back on? Open the country up, mm would want to wake up from his shamrock daze, if restaurants etc are closed open up.

Easy knowing you don't work in the health service. They are under serious and sustained pressure. Step in to the real world for a while.

pjohnson

Widdensushi wrote: »

So the health service has been less overrun than recent years thankfully, the health service has been vaccinated which was a big source of infection, I presume elective surgery is back on? Open the country up, mm would want to wake up from his shamrock daze, if restaurants etc are closed open up.

Why do people still believe Jim Corr?

Igotadose

hynesie08 wrote: »

Still over 90% of vaccines in arms



That doesn't mean lagging, unless you want fully staffed offices so you can complain about taxes being wasted

The UK took the decision to ensure no one has to travel more than 10 miles for a vaccine. What's the basis of the planning for the paltry few Irish centers? My GP is over 10 miles away, and the closest proposed vaccine center over 100.

I'd gladly pay tax to ensure more centers. Without a doubt. And, I'd start them now, as it takes forever for the HSE to get around to building them. Further, the UK built their centers before they had vaccine. Why can't Ireland do that?

Not a shred of evidence to back that up.

Local GP wrote an article recently about receiving a call late at night to come to another town over 100 miles away for a vaccine as they were to expire. This was before the AZ vaccine. So, some evidence for you that the vaccine rollout is a mess. Plus, trusting data from the HSE is iffy, CervicalCheck anyone? Ensuring accurate reporting has never been their strong suit.

Another problem should a huge number of vaccines show up, what's the state of the HSE IT systems? Everyone getting through to make their appointments post-haste? Took them weeks to set up the IT system for contact tracing - are they asking for that anymore anyway? Oh, and capacity wise, whenever they're flooded, their answer is STOP! Like the Xmas outbreak that led them to tell people not to come in for tests. Couldn't keep up; under-capacity as always. HSE prefers it this way. Why haven't they doubled the ICU capacity in the 1 year plus that's passed since Covid first broke out?

The centres that are needed are in use.



Good thing we're getting the vaccines in arms with maximum efficiency and absolute minimum waste then.

Let's see how they do this week when supposedly 250,000 people will be vaccinated.

is_that_so

Hospitals are 849 and 155 in ICU this morning.

big syke

theballz wrote: »

?

It is not normal for the state to have over 100 people in ICU. Right now we have 158 confirmed cases.

You are miles off.

In fairness we constantly are close to capacity almost 90% so well above 100 is normal.

http://s3-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/noca-uploads/general/Irish_National_ICU_Audit_Annual_Report_2018_FINAL.pdf