Covid 19 Part XXXII-215,743 ROI (4,137 deaths)111,166 NI (2,036 deaths)(22/02)Read OP

lawred2

TonyMaloney wrote: »

Well I've good news for you. You have the narrative all wrong.
The narrative is that strains pose a threat to our vaccination efforts. Not that they will fail.

I'm sick of the mantra coming from your side, where the "vaccines will work just fine" despite all the evidence to the contrary. It's just mindless optimism.

If you're sick of it all, stop seeking it out

TonyMaloney

TonyMaloney wrote: »

Well I've good news for you. You have the narrative all wrong.
The narrative is that strains pose a threat to our vaccination efforts. Not that they will fail.

I'm sick of the mantra coming from your side, where the "vaccines will work just fine" despite all the evidence to the contrary. It's just mindless optimism.

If you're sick of it all, stop seeking it out

I don't have a side. That's a lazy argument. What's this evidence to the contrary? If you know something I don't please do share.

mloc123

Hardyn wrote: »

Seriously. I'm sick of this whole narrative lately that the vaccines are going to fail.

Some people need the doom and gloom...

Deeper Blue

TonyMaloney wrote: »

I'm sick of the mantra coming from your side, where the "vaccines will work just fine" despite all the evidence to the contrary. It's just mindless optimism.

Which evidence is that?

Plumbthedepths

mloc123 wrote: »

Some people need the doom and gloom...

They even search for it.

hmmm

CalamariFritti wrote: »

if we stay paralysed in fear over something that may or may not happen we will stay in corona paralysis forever. After all tomorrow some flu or other virus may mutate into something more dangerous. What are we saying? Give it another year or two, just in case? Why not stay restricted forever if the fear doesnt go away?

I agree that once everyone is vaccinated and protected from severe disease, we can't stay restricted just in case of what might happen in the future.

But we know also that we can't simply let the virus rip through the country when the highly-vulnerable are vaccinated. The hospitals will still get over-run from younger people, and Israel is providing evidence for this.

So in my opinion we'll be waiting a while until we get fairly wide-scale vaccination to reopen. But once everyone who wants a vaccine has got one, it's difficult to see a strong argument not to drop restrictions - and if we prove that vaccines protect against severe disease in new variants (which appears to be the case), that argument becomes overwhelming. I expect we might see some restrictions around borders remaining for a while (e.g. testing at airports, masks, vaccination passports).

zuutroy

TonyMaloney wrote: »

I have zero interest in doing that, thanks. Read the news.

Read the news lol. Probably the worst way to inform oneself about reality.

OwenM

TonyMaloney wrote: »

Well I've good news for you. You have the narrative all wrong.
The narrative is that strains pose a threat to our vaccination efforts. Not that they will fail.

I'm sick of the mantra coming from your side, where the "vaccines will work just fine" despite all the evidence to the contrary. It's just mindless optimism.

If you're sick of it all, stop seeking it out

All the evidence to the contrary? Evidence of what exactly, that the vaccines don't work and the news out of Israel is false?

accensi0n

hmmm wrote: »

But we know also that we can't simply let the virus rip through the country when the highly-vulnerable are vaccinated. The hospitals will still get over-run from younger people, and Israel is providing evidence for this.

What happened in Israel?

I had been thinking that you almost could just let it rip through the country after all the medical professionals, at risk and elderly had been vaccinated (something like 20% of the pop?). Would the hospitals really still get over run?

TonyMaloney

Deleted User wrote: »

There has been no evidence that variants will have any impact of the ability of vaccines to prevent severe illness.

Yes, there is an absence of evidence as the trial didn't include many people that were likely to get severely ill.
But the evidence they do have is very troubling.

Anyway, I'm not pointing at the SA variant and saying that's the only variant we have to look out for.
The SA variant is just an example of the type of difficulty that can arise as we try to vaccinate most of the planet.

OwenM

accensi0n wrote: »

What happened in Israel?

I had been thinking that you almost could just let it rip through the country after all the medical professionals, at risk and elderly had been vaccinated (something like 20% of the pop?). Would the hospitals really still get over run?

You would probably need to have vaccinated the people with vulnerabilities aged 18-64 as well, Group 7 on the HSE schedule then we go to level 2 I think.

hmmm

accensi0n wrote: »

What happened in Israel?

I had been thinking that you almost could just let it rip through the country after all the medical professionals, at risk and elderly had been vaccinated (something like 20% of the pop?). Would the hospitals really still get over run?

I don't have it to hand, but there were good posts here earlier with the figures. In Israel the number of hospitalisations in the vaccinated older group 65+ started to fall, but those in the younger group increased.

It wasn't clear whether this was new variants, or maybe less observation of the lockdown, but either way the pressure remained on the hospitals even as the "vulnerable" group were protected.

That's a short-term thing though (hopefully), and as the younger groups get vaccinated they should get past that surge.

stephenjmcd

GP Data

https://tomorrowscare.ie/covid/2021-02-17_COVID_GP_Survey_Results.pdf

Usual Monday bump, again lower than previous Mondays, followed by a decent drop yesterday, under 1 for the first time in a long time.

accensi0n

hmmm wrote: »

I don't have it to hand, but there were good posts here earlier with the figures. In Israel the number of hospitalisations in the vaccinated older group 65+ started to fall, but those in the younger group increased.

It wasn't clear whether this was new variants, or maybe less observation of the lockdown, but either way the pressure remained on the hospitals even as the "vulnerable" group were protected.

That's a short-term thing though (hopefully), and as the younger groups get vaccinated they should get past that surge.

Yeah found this:
https://www.timesofisrael.com/more-younger-israelis-now-being-hospitalized-for-covid-than-those-60-plus/

It does mention higher numbers of younger people being hospitalised and a suspicion of it being more aggressive variants.
But main point of the article seems to be the flipping of the ratio of older to younger for hospitalisations as apposed to an increase in younger, which is kind of what makes me suspect the hospitals wouldn't get overrun run if you let the virus rip, since the historically typical patient would be way less likely to end up in hospital because of the vaccinations.
And no greater than normal reduction in medical staff.

TonyMaloney

accensi0n wrote: »

Yeah found this:
https://www.timesofisrael.com/more-younger-israelis-now-being-hospitalized-for-covid-than-those-60-plus/

It does mention higher numbers of younger people being hospitalised and a suspicion of it being more aggressive variants.
But main point of the article seems to be the flipping of the ratio of older to younger for hospitalisations as apposed to an increase in younger, which is kind of what makes me suspect the hospitals wouldn't get overrun run if you let the virus rip, since the historically typical patient would be way less likely to end up in hospital because of the vaccinations.
And no greater than normal reduction in medical staff.

In the last 14 days there have been 921 hospitalisations from 12,825 cases.
458 of those hospitalised were under 65.

If you go back to mid January where we had 60,000+ cases within 14 days, then you quickly get to the point where your hospitals fill with those under 65.
It's unsustainable.

podgeandrodge

TonyMaloney wrote: »

In the last 14 days there have been 921 hospitalisations from 12,825 cases.
458 of those hospitalised were under 65.

If you go back to mid January where we had 60,000+ cases within 14 days, then you quickly get to the point where your hospitals fill with those under 65.
It's unsustainable.

I keep seeing the stats about over 65/under 65. It's a bit of a wide brush isn't it? I'd like to know what proportion of under 65's are over 60 for example. (Necessary boards outrage disclaimer - Just to get perspective, not because it doesn't matter). If you're going to be told that 50% of anything is over 65 and 50% is under 65, it's reasonable to want to know are 90% of the latter at the upper end of the scale. (Not talking about hospitalisations, where age doesn't matter in relation to capacity).

TonyMaloney

podgeandrodge wrote: »

I keep seeing the stats about over 65/under 65. It's a bit of a wide brush isn't it? I'd like to know what proportion of under 65's are over 60 for example. (Necessary boards outrage disclaimer - Just to get perspective, not because it doesn't matter). If you're going to be told that 50% of anything is over 65 and 50% is under 65, it's reasonable to want to know are 90% of the latter at the upper end of the scale. (Not talking about hospitalisations, where age doesn't matter in relation to capacity).

336 of the 458 were under 55 years old

https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/coronavirus/novelcoronavirus/surveillance/covid-1914-dayepidemiologyreports/COVID-19_14_day_epidemiology_report_20210216_WEB.pdf

accensi0n

TonyMaloney wrote: »

In the last 14 days there have been 921 hospitalisations from 12,825 cases.
458 of those hospitalised were under 65.

If you go back to mid January where we had 60,000+ cases within 14 days, then you quickly get to the point where your hospitals fill with those under 65.
It's unsustainable.

So at our peak the hospitals had just about become overrun.
And from what you've noted, possibly more than half of the hospitalisations wouldn't occurr again because of initial vaccination groups, elderly + at risk + medical professionals + slower spread.
Seems pretty positive, let's let it rip.

TonyMaloney

accensi0n wrote: »

So at our peak the hospitals had just about become overrun.
And from what you've noted, possibly more than half of the hospitalisations wouldn't occurr again because of initial vaccination groups, elderly + at risk + medical professionals + slower spread.
Seems pretty positive, let's let it rip.

Well I tried.

Good luck out there

Turtwig

hmmm wrote: »

I don't have it to hand, but there were good posts here earlier with the figures. In Israel the number of hospitalisations in the vaccinated older group 65+ started to fall, but those in the younger group increased.

It wasn't clear whether this was new variants, or maybe less observation of the lockdown, but either way the pressure remained on the hospitals even as the "vulnerable" group were protected.

That's a short-term thing though (hopefully), and as the younger groups get vaccinated they should get past that surge.

NPHET aims to have modelling data in March on the anticipated impact to the health service of vaccinations among various vaccine prioritisation groups. That'll give us a better idea how much an increase in daily case numbers we could tolerate and consequently how much we could relax restrictions as the vaccination progresses.

Rebelbrowser

accensi0n wrote: »

So at our peak the hospitals had just about become overrun.
And from what you've noted, possibly more than half of the hospitalisations wouldn't occurr again because of initial vaccination groups, elderly + at risk + medical professionals + slower spread.
Seems pretty positive, let's let it rip.

Loads of people not hospitalised have and are really suffering nonetheless. From talking to the people I know who have had it (typically people in their 40s and 50s) I am very satisfied I do not want to get this damn thing (I am a fit and healthy 44 year old btw) - so no to letting it rip thank you very much.

CalamariFritti

Turtwig wrote: »

NPHET aims to have modelling data in March on the anticipated impact to the health service of vaccinations among various vaccine prioritisation groups. That'll give us a better idea how much an increase in daily case numbers we could tolerate and consequently how much we could relax restrictions as the vaccination progresses.

nphet modelling data, haha. 2025 here we come.

Wolf359f

accensi0n wrote: »

So at our peak the hospitals had just about become overrun.
And from what you've noted, possibly more than half of the hospitalisations wouldn't occurr again because of initial vaccination groups, elderly + at risk + medical professionals + slower spread.
Seems pretty positive, let's let it rip.

We don't actually know what % of the 18-64 age range hospitalized would be considered at risk due to preexisting conditions. So I think at most with all those above 65 vaccinated, you would expect if we went though that wave again, the hospital and ICU figures would have been half what they were (so a kinda worst case scenario).

Once the at risk 18-64 also get vaccinated you would hope the potential hospitalizations would be minimal and baring people going crazy, it certainly opens the possibility of actually living with Covid (within reason)

Turtwig

accensi0n wrote: »

So at our peak the hospitals had just about become overrun.
And from what you've noted, possibly more than half of the hospitalisations wouldn't occurr again because of initial vaccination groups, elderly + at risk + medical professionals + slower spread.
Seems pretty positive, let's let it rip.

I hope you're being facetious.

accensi0n

TonyMaloney wrote: »

Well I tried.

Good luck out there

But do you see my point at all? You said that 50% were over 65, and I had been discussing vaccinations of elderly + other groups and letting the virus spread through the pop then.
We pretty much had the virus ripping through us in December.
So from the stats you gave it shouldn't be nearly as bad as before.

Kunta Kinte

accensi0n wrote: »

So at our peak the hospitals had just about become overrun.
And from what you've noted, possibly more than half of the hospitalisations wouldn't occurr again because of initial vaccination groups, elderly + at risk + medical professionals + slower spread.
Seems pretty positive, let's let it rip.

Logic fail. 0.5/10.

accensi0n

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

Loads of people not hospitalised have and are really suffering nonetheless. From talking to the people I know who have had it (typically people in their 40s and 50s) I am very satisfied I do not want to get this damn thing (I am a fit and healthy 44 year old btw) - so no to letting it rip thank you very much.

Yeah I know I get it, I know people in their 30s who are still feeling the effects.
I'm not advocating for it, I think it's an interesting discussion though, would the hospitals cope if just those first few groups were vaccinated and then you just opened everything up.

Kunta Kinte

accensi0n wrote: »

Yeah I know I get it, I know people in their 30s who are still feeling the effects.
I'm not advocating for it, I think it's an interesting discussion though, would the hospitals cope if just those first few groups were vaccinated and then you just opened everything up.

That won`t be happening though so it is only a hypothetical discussion.

TheDoctor

In the summer, hospitalisations will be as low as an average summer as they were last year.

Cases will be lower.

The high risk groups will be vaccinated.

NPHET “we aren’t where we need to be”

seamus

Hardyn wrote: »

Seriously. I'm sick of this whole narrative lately that the vaccines are going to fail.

This narrative has been around since at least June last year, once it became widespread knowledge that vaccines were in development. "We've never had a vaccine for coronaviruses, so we won't get one now" was the favourite one.

Now that they're here, the pessimism has just become more intense. The media doesn't help, since they deliberately seek out pessimistic points of view to put across, because these are known to be more engaging than optimistic ones.

At every step of vaccine development, the pessimists have been proven wrong.