Covid 19 Part XXXII-215,743 ROI (4,137 deaths)111,166 NI (2,036 deaths)(22/02)Read OP

ninebeanrows

TheDoctor wrote: »

In the summer, hospitalisations will be lower than a average summer as they were last year.

Cases will be lower.

The high risk groups will be vaccinated.

NPHET “we aren’t where we need to be”

20 July 2021

' we cannot forfeit the ground we have made '

Cases still worryingly high as 47 new cases announced.

Stateofyou

Well what a news headline...

"UK and Californian coronavirus variants have MERGED into one: Rare combination event spotted in American patient could create strain that spreads rapidly and dodges immunity, scientists warn"

"A hybrid version of the coronavirus has surfaced in California, after the Kent variant and a strain found in the US merged together inside an infected person. The variant, not yet named, has only been spotted once but scientists fear there are likely to be more cases. Experts are worried because it carries mutations which appear to make it able to spread faster and also to slip past some of the immunity made from past infections or vaccines. It was formed from the Kent Covid variant – known scientifically as B.1.1.7 – and a Californian variant called B.1.429. Scientists in the US claim they merged in a 'recombination event', the New Scientist reports. This happens when two different versions of the virus infect the same cell and then swap genes while they are reproducing, giving rise to a new variant. Researchers have warned in the past that these events are possible but said they are 'unlikely' because they require very specific conditions and the coincidence of mostly uncontrollable events. They are more likely to happen during huge outbreaks. While experts have said there is no need to panic about new variants, one admitted recombination was 'dangerous' because it could change the virus so suddenly."

Turtwig

CalamariFritti wrote: »

nphet modelling data, haha. 2025 here we come.

The various modelling consortiums in the Irish Universities produce the data. NPHET merely present it.

It'll be available in March or April at the latest.

TheDoctor

Stateofyou wrote: »

Well what a news headline...

"UK and Californian coronavirus variants have MERGED into one: Rare combination event spotted in American patient could create strain that spreads rapidly and dodges immunity, scientists warn"

"A hybrid version of the coronavirus has surfaced in California, after the Kent variant and a strain found in the US merged together inside an infected person. The variant, not yet named, has only been spotted once but scientists fear there are likely to be more cases. Experts are worried because it carries mutations which appear to make it able to spread faster and also to slip past some of the immunity made from past infections or vaccines. It was formed from the Kent Covid variant – known scientifically as B.1.1.7 – and a Californian variant called B.1.429. Scientists in the US claim they merged in a 'recombination event', the New Scientist reports. This happens when two different versions of the virus infect the same cell and then swap genes while they are reproducing, giving rise to a new variant. Researchers have warned in the past that these events are possible but said they are 'unlikely' because they require very specific conditions and the coincidence of mostly uncontrollable events. They are more likely to happen during huge outbreaks. While experts have said there is no need to panic about new variants, one admitted recombination was 'dangerous' because it could change the virus so suddenly."

Unlikely

Coincidence

No need to panic

Could

Turtwig

Stateofyou wrote: »

Well what a news headline...

"UK and Californian coronavirus variants have MERGED into one: Rare combination event spotted in American patient could create strain that spreads rapidly and dodges immunity, scientists warn"

"A hybrid version of the coronavirus has surfaced in California, after the Kent variant and a strain found in the US merged together inside an infected person. The variant, not yet named, has only been spotted once but scientists fear there are likely to be more cases. Experts are worried because it carries mutations which appear to make it able to spread faster and also to slip past some of the immunity made from past infections or vaccines. It was formed from the Kent Covid variant – known scientifically as B.1.1.7 – and a Californian variant called B.1.429. Scientists in the US claim they merged in a 'recombination event', the New Scientist reports. This happens when two different versions of the virus infect the same cell and then swap genes while they are reproducing, giving rise to a new variant. Researchers have warned in the past that these events are possible but said they are 'unlikely' because they require very specific conditions and the coincidence of mostly uncontrollable events. They are more likely to happen during huge outbreaks. While experts have said there is no need to panic about new variants, one admitted recombination was 'dangerous' because it could change the virus so suddenly."

Ack I hate modern media sometimes.
Newscientist reported on this yesterday.
It may be significant. It may not be. It's only something of interest for now.

Relevant paragraph from the original article

Korber has only seen a single recombinant genome among thousands of sequences and it isn’t clear whether the virus is being transmitted from person to person or is just a one-off.
...

The implications of the finding aren’t yet clear because very little is known about the recombinant’s biology. However, it does carry a mutation from B.1.1.7, called Δ69/70, which makes the UK virus more transmissible, and another from B.1.429, called L452R, which can confer resistance to antibodies.

Read more: https://www.newscientist.com/article/2268014-exclusive-two-variants-have-merged-into-heavily-mutated-coronavirus/#ixzz6mjkB4sJ2

seamus

seamus wrote: »

This narrative has been around since at least June last year, once it became widespread knowledge that vaccines were in development. "We've never had a vaccine for coronaviruses, so we won't get one now" was the favourite one.

Now that they're here, the pessimism has just become more intense. The media doesn't help, since they deliberately seek out pessimistic points of view to put across, because these are known to be more engaging than optimistic ones.

At every step of vaccine development, the pessimists have been proven wrong.

I preferred the minks. The maddening thing though is it's not just the media. There are experts that push it too. A certain nutritionist in particular comes to mind.

Stateofyou

seamus wrote: »

This narrative has been around since at least June last year, once it became widespread knowledge that vaccines were in development. "We've never had a vaccine for coronaviruses, so we won't get one now" was the favourite one.

Now that they're here, the pessimism has just become more intense. The media doesn't help, since they deliberately seek out pessimistic points of view to put across, because these are known to be more engaging than optimistic ones.

At every step of vaccine development, the pessimists have been proven wrong.

Whoa there cowboy. I happen to think it's possible the vaccines are going to be in at least partial jeopardy- because they already are. But I am NOT in the same group that in my opinion are not well informed. Trying to conflate the two just to try and feel superior with a baseless dig means you never had a leg to stand on at all.

seamus

938 positives on 17,104 tests, 5.48%

One of those rare bad boys where Wednesday's percentage is lower than Tuesdays. And lower than 1,000.

That's a really positive outcome today.

KrustyUCC

seamus wrote: »

938 positives on 17,104 tests, 5.48%

Good stuff

158 less swabs than this day last week

Hopefully under 1000 cases today

TonyMaloney

seamus wrote: »

This narrative has been around since at least June last year, once it became widespread knowledge that vaccines were in development. "We've never had a vaccine for coronaviruses, so we won't get one now" was the favourite one.

Now that they're here, the pessimism has just become more intense. The media doesn't help, since they deliberately seek out pessimistic points of view to put across, because these are known to be more engaging than optimistic ones.

At every step of vaccine development, the pessimists have been proven wrong.

He's quoting me there when he references this so called narrative.
I assume you're referring to me as one of these pessimists who's always wrong about vaccines?
Blind optimism is an an equally useless trait, Seamus. See some of your wild theories from December as evidence.

The experts are concerned. I'm concerned too.
Ignore it all if you think that's the way to go, but you could be in for a bit of a shock.

Doctor Jimbob

TonyMaloney wrote: »

He's quoting me there when he references this so called narrative.
I assume you're referring to me as one of these pessimists who's always wrong about vaccines?
Blind optimism is an an equally useless trait, Seamus. See some of your wild theories from December as evidence.

The experts are concerned. I'm concerned too.
Ignore it all if you think that's the way to go, but you could be in for a bit of a shock.

What's the alternative? Keep everything closed until no one is "concerned" anymore? We opened up plenty of stuff last summer with very little rise in cases despite some people's concerns.

seamus

TonyMaloney wrote: »

He's quoting me there when he references this so called narrative.
I assume you're referring to me as one of these pessimists who's always wrong about vaccines?

No, not referring to you, I'm talking in general terms.

Blind optimism is an an equally useless trait, Seamus. See some of your wild theories from December as evidence.

I don't theorise, I speculate

Nevertheless, I try to maintain an open mind; to consider all possibilities rather than become bound to one as being inevitable.

The experts are concerned. I'm concerned too.

Honestly, I don't see the experts being concerned at all. They are keeping an eye on variants, ensuring that we don't get caught by surprise.
But I have yet to hear a competent expert say that they are concerned that the effectiveness of the vaccines is in any serious jeopardy or that we'll have to start effectively from scratch anytime soon.

The media are grabbing lots of opinions from all sorts of randomers; finance ministers, GPs, health ministers, South Africa, and firing them out there as "expert" opinions.

These are of little more value than idle gossip.

CIARAN_BOYLE

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

What's the alternative? Keep everything closed until no one is "concerned" anymore? We opened up plenty of stuff last summer with very little rise in cases despite some people's concerns.

Would you be happy to get cases as low as they were last summer before opening up?

We got things very low last summer. Cases rose relatively quickly as a % when they rose but because we got so low it wasn't really noticeable.

Doctor Jimbob

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

Would you be happy to get cases as low as they were last summer before opening up?

We got things very low last summer. Cases rose relatively quickly as a % when they rose but because we got so low it wasn't really noticeable.

I'd be happy enough with that. The % increase might be fairly high but as you say, that's less of an issue when coming from a lower base. Factor in an increasing number of people getting vaccinated and I can't see any reason not to be at least as open as last summer this year.

jhegarty

KrustyUCC wrote: »

Good stuff

158 less swabs than this day last week

Hopefully under 1000 cases today

Given the weekly trends , hopefully we never see 1000 again.

Ficheall

TheDoctor wrote: »

In the summer, hospitalisations will be as low as an average summer as they were last year.

Cases will be lower.

The high risk groups will be vaccinated.

NPHET “we aren’t where we need to be”

Ah, the old "let's make up things to complain about" chestnut.

KrustyUCC

jhegarty wrote: »

Given the weekly trends , hopefully we never see 1000 again.

Hopefully

There's prob a bit of a backlog in swabs though so we may see 1000 again this week but hopefully not moving forward

wadacrack

jhegarty wrote: »

Given the weekly trends , hopefully we never see 1000 again.

Ib be shocked if we don't. Given that we are opening up Schools soon with a new variant that clearly spreads more rapidly.

saw numbers of the university outbreak in Galway. 90 positive out of 200 tested. All online . Obviously house parties etc played a big role but still undelines the risks.

Don't want to be negative but I do think we are forgetting that we are dealing with a more dangerous virus than a few months.

News about the J & J was promising however. Hopefully we can be a in good position with vaccination in April/May and weather may help . The drop in India probably a number of factors, I think seasonality helps lower the Ro by about 0.4-0.6

caveat emptor

Great to see human challenge trials being conducted. Some of the "it's just a flu" can put there body on the line in the name of science. Brave souls. Given that the Irish government has been essentially copying everything the UK government have been doing of late, I expect our own home grown human challenge study.

It could have it's own thread and become an "Ice bucket challenge" type thing in the coming months in the name of science.

Sure to be popular on the relaxation of restrictions thread........

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/feb/17/uk-to-begin-worlds-first-covid-human-challenge-study-within-weeks

UK COVID challenge

https://ukcovidchallenge.com/covid-19-volunteer-trials/

El Weirdo

caveat emptor wrote: »

Great to see human challenge trials being conducted. Some of the "it's just a flu" can put there body on the line in the name of science. Brave souls. Given that the Irish government has been essentially copying everything the UK government have been doing of late, I expect our own home grown human challenge study.

It could have it's own thread and become an "Ice bucket challenge" type thing in the coming months in the name of science.

Sure to be popular on the relaxation of restrictions thread........

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/feb/17/uk-to-begin-worlds-first-covid-human-challenge-study-within-weeks

UK COVID challenge

https://ukcovidchallenge.com/covid-19-volunteer-trials/


[IMG][/img]SNIP

[IMG][/img]SNIP

What's the relevance of the photos?

gctest50

caveat emptor wrote: »

...........

I expect our own home grown human challenge study.......

Ireland is miles ahead - vaccinate all the people in nursing homes and then in a few weeks expose them to covid ( via herds of visitors)

caveat emptor

El Weirdo wrote: »

What's the relevance of the photos?

They are from https://ukcovidchallenge.com/covid-19-volunteer-trials/ where you can register interest in taking part.

About our research
hVIVO conduct research using the Human Challenge Model. The Human Challenge Model is a study during which healthy volunteers are deliberately exposed to a virus, known as the “challenge virus”. This is different to standard vaccine clinical trials where volunteers are exposed to viruses naturally. The Human Challenge Model can provide a more efficient and faster way to develop vaccines as fewer volunteers are required.

I guess they are there to give a sense of what it might be like for potential volunteers.

Looks handy enough.

pottokblue

What hitech head gear but still leaves his ears open to viral exposure...

landofthetree

seamus wrote: »

This narrative has been around since at least June last year, once it became widespread knowledge that vaccines were in development. "We've never had a vaccine for coronaviruses, so we won't get one now" was the favourite one.

Now that they're here, the pessimism has just become more intense. The media doesn't help, since they deliberately seek out pessimistic points of view to put across, because these are known to be more engaging than optimistic ones.

At every step of vaccine development, the pessimists have been proven wrong.

It was started in America as soon as Trump says vaccines were coming.

Klonker

Just on the over/under 65 argument, what's being forgotten is our health care workers will have also gotten the vaccine by summer who make up over 10% of cases here so far.

And further on this, the people who get vaccinated are not just going to lower the amount of people in hospital by avoiding the worst of the virus themselves, but also by breaking chains of infection. For example, if I get the virus and am in close contact with 5 people, I may pass it on to 3 for example and they pass on to 3 and so on. If 50% of my contacts are vaccinated I might only pass on to 2 people and them pass on to 2 if some of their contacts are vaccinated and so on. So the gains of the vaccines can actually be exponential. (Before anyway says it, I know there is no hard proof that vaccines make you less transmissible but it significantly decreases viral load and its only a matter of time before the data proves beyond doubt vaccines make people less transmissible)

TonyMaloney

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

I'd be happy enough with that. The % increase might be fairly high but as you say, that's less of an issue when coming from a lower base. Factor in an increasing number of people getting vaccinated and I can't see any reason not to be at least as open as last summer this year.

We started the slow process of opening up on May 18th last year. Cases had just dipped under 100 per day.
Funnily enough at the current rate of decline we'd be looking around late May to again get under 100 cases.

Instead the current plan seems to be to begin a phased reopening in 12 days time. We'll likely have a 5%+ positivity rate, and we're dealing with a more transmissible disease.
The WHO issued guidelines last May that countries should not consider reopening until they were under 5% for two weeks. From what we've seen since, 5% is probably too risky. But besides, that was for an older less transmissible strain.

It's a very precarious situation. Our only big positive is that an ever growing percentage of the population will be immune.
Before you all attack me, I'm not saying I want indefinite harsh restrictions. I'm just pointing out the perils of our current plan.

mloc123

wadacrack wrote: »

Ib be shocked if we don't. Given that we are opening up Schools soon with a new variant that clearly spreads more rapidly.

saw numbers of the university outbreak in Galway. 90 positive out of 200 tested. All online . Obviously house parties etc played a big role but still undelines the risks.

Yup.. all those primary school kids will be back having house parties when the schools open up...

CruelSummer

https://www.irishexaminer.com/business/economy/arid-40209443.html

Why are the media not reporting more on the absolutely insultingly low amount of bailout money the EU is going to provide Ireland? Who is going to pay for these never ending lockdowns and why are we so trigger happy to keep them going, if we're not even getting 1 billion from a €750 Billion recovery fund?

Doctor Jimbob

TonyMaloney wrote: »

We started the slow process of opening up on May 18th last year. Cases had just dipped under 100 per day.
Funnily enough at the current rate of decline we'd be looking around late May to again get under 100 cases.

Instead the current plan seems to be to begin a phased reopening in 12 days time. We'll likely have a 5%+ positivity rate, and we're dealing with a more transmissible disease.
The WHO issued guidelines last May that countries should not consider reopening until they were under 5% for two weeks. From what we've seen since, 5% is probably too risky. But besides, that was for an older less transmissible strain.

It's a very precarious situation. Our only big positive is that an ever growing percentage of the population will be immune.
Before you all attack me, I'm not saying I want indefinite harsh restrictions. I'm just pointing out the perils of our current plan.

Yeah thats a fair enough point and don't get me wrong, I'm not suggesting we just open things up and forget about the consequences. I'm just saying IF we're in a similar position to last summer, I'd like to see us open up as least as much as we did back then, if not more.

mloc123

CruelSummer wrote: »

https://www.irishexaminer.com/business/economy/arid-40209443.html

Why are the media not reporting more on the absolutely insultingly low amount of bailout money the EU is going to provide Ireland? Who is going to pay for these never ending lockdowns and why are we so trigger happy to keep them going, if we're not even getting 1 billion from a €750 Billion recovery fund?

I assume we will get 1% like we get 1% of all EU allocations... because we make up 1% of the population...