Covid 19 Part XXXII-215,743 ROI (4,137 deaths)111,166 NI (2,036 deaths)(22/02)Read OP

is_that_so

CruelSummer wrote: »

https://www.irishexaminer.com/business/economy/arid-40209443.html

Why are the media not reporting more on the absolutely insultingly low amount of bailout money the EU is going to provide Ireland? Who is going to pay for these never ending lockdowns and why are we so trigger happy to keep them going, if we're not even getting 1 billion from a €750 Billion recovery fund?

We can borrow vast sums at negligible and negative rates.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/state-5-5bn-bond-sale-one-third-of-borrowing-to-cover-covid-crisis-1.4450415

Gruffalux

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

What's the alternative? Keep everything closed until no one is "concerned" anymore? We opened up plenty of stuff last summer with very little rise in cases despite some people's concerns.

Just on the very little rise in cases bit - when we opened up last time, we had case numbers in the 20s. That is less than 1 person per county. I sometimes think of it in terms of spores, just as a visual thing, not scientific. If you go out in a yard and there are 20 spores floating, the likelihood of one landing on you is way way less than if there are 1000 spores. Substitute dandelion clocks and the same thing.
There is also the thing about exponential increase in its early phase - covid cannot go really exponential as people freak out naturally when the hospitals start filling up and countries close down - it is slow at the start, really almost unnoticeable, and then when it gets really going it is very fast. That depends on amount to start with.
Refer also to the metaphor of the lily pad in the pond doubling in size every day. It is really unnoticeable at first, for ages it just doubles away there in a hidden corner of the pond - but the day before it covers the whole pond, it covers half the pond - ie the increase is much faster when there is more of it to increase.

There you go, lots of lovely nature analogies for the day :pac:

landofthetree

https://twitter.com/BBCHughPym/status/1361981207706292225

Jim_Hodge

CruelSummer wrote: »

https://www.irishexaminer.com/business/economy/arid-40209443.html

Why are the media not reporting more on the absolutely insultingly low amount of bailout money the EU is going to provide Ireland? Who is going to pay for these never ending lockdowns and why are we so trigger happy to keep them going, if we're not even getting 1 billion from a €750 Billion recovery fund?

We said we didn't need it as we can souse funds cheaper elsewhere.

Diabhalta

so where did all the covid checkpoints go since the storm started last tuesday or when was it? Is there no checkpoints in bad weather? Why? Seems like they are doing checkpoints every other week.

---

meanwhile in the US, the government went absolutely nuts. Agree with Shapiro. the answer is: No.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_dwX4MSZ_9k&t=178s

manofwisdom

TonyMaloney wrote: »

We started the slow process of opening up on May 18th last year. Cases had just dipped under 100 per day.

Not counting historical cases. On May 18th the 5 day average on cases was 119 per day and the 7 day average was 129.

Another thing to note was testing.

May 12th to May 18th - 36,818 tests were carried out. Compared to now 110,462 in the last 7 days.

TonyMaloney

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

Yeah thats a fair enough point and don't get me wrong, I'm not suggesting we just open things up and forget about the consequences. I'm just saying IF we're in a similar position to last summer, I'd like to see us open up as least as much as we did back then, if not more.

I don't have a problem with that at all.
Well, I don't know what exactly you mean by "if not more". But assuming it's not complete lunacy, then we're agreed.

Unfortunately it's looking really unlikely to pan out that way. There's understandable pressure to reopen schools. The only estimate I've ever seen on the effect on the R number from opening schools was from SAGE at 0.4

Our current cases, swabs and positivity rate suggest an R of just below 1.
If we take SAGE's estimate at face value (even though it's for the old strain), then we're looking at an R number of about 1.3 - 1.4 which would mean considerable growth of the virus from an already high level.

I don't know what's going to happen, but I expect to see NPHET push back on the early March plan. We're just not where we need to be.

Ficheall

mloc123 wrote: »

I assume we will get 1% like we get 1% of all EU allocations... because we make up 1% of the population...

But less than 1 is less than 1% of 750...

TonyMaloney

manofwisdom wrote: »

Not counting historical cases. On May 18th the 5 day average on cases was 119 per day and the 7 day average was 129.

Another thing to note was testing.

May 12th to May 18th - 36,818 tests were carried out. Compared to now 110,462 in the last 7 days.

Ok. You're right about the 7 day average I'm sure, but it doesn't contradict what I said at all.

I can't remember the criteria for testing back in mid-May. Was it significantly different to now?

blowitupref

Positive Swab count the last 5 Wednesdays.

Jan 20 - 2786
Jan 27 - 1668
Feb 3 - 1204
Feb 10 - 1096
Feb 17 - 938

hotmail.com

manofwisdom wrote: »

Not counting historical cases. On May 18th the 5 day average on cases was 119 per day and the 7 day average was 129.

Another thing to note was testing.

May 12th to May 18th - 36,818 tests were carried out. Compared to now 110,462 in the last 7 days.

Doesn't this just show that mass testing detects more cases, but it doesn't affect hospitalistions.

More cases doesn't necessarily mean disaster.

caveat emptor

Ficheall wrote: »

But less than 1 is less than 1% of 750...

Yeah and Is it free money? (doesn't have to be paid back)
That's better than bonds.

TonyMaloney

hotmail.com wrote: »

Doesn't this just show that mass testing detects more cases, but it doesn't affect hospitalistions.

More cases doesn't necessarily mean disaster.

No. It primarily shows more demand for testing due to us having a significantly larger infection at the moment.

Diabhalta

I don't remember Irish media reporting on discovery of potential covid cure in Israel

https://www.cityam.com/israeli-hospital-says-it-may-have-found-covid-19-cure-as-all-treated-patients-make-full-recovery/

Or this medicine from Eli Lilly treating covid, that's been recently ordered by some countries here in Europe. And is on the way right now at this moment. It's also pretty expensive.

https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/news/ema-reviewing-data-monoclonal-antibody-use-covid-19


Instead it's all just vaccines vaccines vaccines and new cases. Seems like nothing else. Running in circles.

Or this kind of stuff... articles about somebody's moaning wife and somebody ordering a kebab. Ridiculous. Gotta love the small island mentality.

https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/health-family/i-have-realised-during-lockdown-that-i-don-t-like-my-wife-1.4479208

https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/people/sean-moncrieff-friday-night-takeaway-has-become-the-highlight-of-my-week-1.4473165

blowitupref

TonyMaloney wrote: »

No. It primarily shows more demand for testing due to us having a significantly larger infection at the moment.

We hadn't a capacity to test as many back then and we had clearly a much bigger case load in the 1st wave than what was reported.

is_that_so

Diabhalta wrote: »

I don't remember Irish media reporting on discovery of potential covid cure in Israel

https://www.cityam.com/israeli-hospital-says-it-may-have-found-covid-19-cure-as-all-treated-patients-make-full-recovery/

Or this medicine from Eli Lilly treating covid, that's been recently ordered by some countries here in Europe. And is on the way right now at this moment. It's also pretty expensive.

https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/news/ema-reviewing-data-monoclonal-antibody-use-covid-19


Instead it's all just vaccines vaccines vaccines and new cases. Seems like nothing else. Running in circles.

Or this kind of stuff... articles about somebody's moaning wife and somebody ordering a kebab. Ridiculous. Gotta love the small island mentality.

https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/health-family/i-have-realised-during-lockdown-that-i-don-t-like-my-wife-1.4479208

https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/people/sean-moncrieff-friday-night-takeaway-has-become-the-highlight-of-my-week-1.4473165

All the current monoclonal treatments fail against one or more of the variants. The Israeli drug is not even at Phase III yet.

Diabhalta

is_that_so wrote: »

All the current monoclonal treatments fail against one or more of the variants. The Israeli drug is not even at Phase III yet.

well the point is that the Irish media won't even mention this. All they feed us is garbage.

is_that_so

Diabhalta wrote: »

well the point is that the Irish media won't even mention this. All they feed us is garbage.

Yeah, most of the time you have to go to specialist sites or journals to get information. Some news sources have been good; NY Times and Guardian in particular for me.

muddypuppy

blowitupref wrote: »

We hadn't a capacity to test as many back then and we had clearly a much bigger case load in the 1st wave than what was reported.

Yes, I don't know why people keep trying to compare swabs/cases from back then. Maybe someone people don't remember, but we got it a lot better now - back in May we were doing 1/4 of the tests we do now, test turnaround was ~3 days etc...
What we can compare (mostly) is deaths, cases in hospitals and cases in ICUs. On May 16 we had 56 people in ICU and 688 possible cases in hospitals (almost 300 of those "suspected"! There was barely any capacity to actually test all the people in hospital).

Positivity rate was lower on May 18, at around 2.5%, but we were doing around 30/40k tests even with a positivity rate much higher, and it actually dropped from the 5.8% on May 2

Also it's a shame that there isn't any decent (that I know off) archive of all the numbers, and one have to hunt down old articles.

Gruffalux

blowitupref wrote: »

We hadn't a capacity to test as many back then and we had clearly a much bigger case load in the 1st wave than what was reported.

I did a few sums.

First covid death we had was 11th March
On 31 May (end of first wave in or around) we had 1652 deaths.
11 and a half weeks.

(This is 1.6 times longer than 7 weeks).

On 30th December 2020 we had 2226 deaths and today we have 3980.
7 weeks and 1750 deaths.

The second wave was worse.

TonyMaloney

muddypuppy wrote: »

Yes, I don't know why people keep trying to compare swabs/cases from back then. Maybe someone people don't remember, but we got it a lot better now - back in May we were doing 1/4 of the tests we do now, test turnaround was ~3 days etc...
What we can compare (mostly) is deaths, cases in hospitals and cases in ICUs. On May 16 we had 56 people in ICU and 688 possible cases in hospitals (almost 300 of those "suspected"! There was barely any capacity to actually test all the people in hospital).

Also it's a shame that there isn't any decent (that I know off) archive of all the numbers, and one have to hunt down old articles.

I'm looking at the data right now. Everything you just said is wrong.

hmmm

landofthetree wrote: »

https://twitter.com/BBCHughPym/status/1361981207706292225

This is the thing that has p*****d me off the most during this whole thing.

We know that outdoors is safer, but it's easy to shame people who are outdoors because we can all see them. There is little evidence that any outdoor gatherings have caused much, if any, spread of the virus. The curtain twitchers are shouting at people going for a hike on a mountain, people in parks, and the guards were stopping families in cars heading to the beach - all this effort to be seen to do something while there were house parties and big funerals going on across the country causing enormous outbreaks. We're heading into a few more months of restrictions and we still haven't bothered figuring out a way to allow restaurants open outdoor dining - with everyone wondering when indoors will open.

From the very start we should have been promoting outdoors with a virus which is airborne. Golf, tennis, outdoors dining, outdoor pubs, hiking, cycling, standing in a garden chatting to your neighbours, swimming, visiting a park.

CalamariFritti

I believe that beaches, 5km, no golf, no tennis, that kind of stuff has really no basis in terms of covid containment.

The Belgian health minister has admitted that non-essential retail and above was only done for the shock effect. To drive home the seriousness of the situation.

No doubt in my mind there is similar stuff going on here. For the shock effect, for the in-this-together.

jackboy

CalamariFritti wrote: »

I believe that beaches, 5km, no golf, no tennis, that kind of stuff has really no basis in terms of covid containment.

The Belgian health minister has admitted that non-essential retail and above was only done for the shock effect. To drive home the seriousness of the situation.

No doubt in my mind there is similar stuff going on here. For the shock effect, for the in-this-together.

True enough. Anyone with half a brain knows these things have no significant impact on spread of the virus.

stephenjmcd

650 new cases

57 deaths, 1 from November, 1 from December, 21 January, 34 February

UsBus

650 cases
57 deaths

DOCARCH

Passed 4K deaths now.

blowitupref

Gruffalux wrote: »

I did a few sums.

First covid death we had was 11th March
On 31 May (end of first wave in or around) we had 1652 deaths.
11 and a half weeks.

(This is 1.6 times longer than 7 weeks).

On 30th December 2020 we had 2226 deaths and today we have 3980.
7 weeks and 1750 deaths.

The second wave was worse.

Worth taking into account that most of not all of those that died of or with Covid are reported now.

While I'm sure we had plenty that died in early part of the first wave that didn't know they had covid as they weren't tested for it.

gally74

CalamariFritti wrote: »

I believe that beaches, 5km, no golf, no tennis, that kind of stuff has really no basis in terms of covid containment.

The Belgian health minister has admitted that non-essential retail and above was only done for the shock effect. To drive home the seriousness of the situation.

No doubt in my mind there is similar stuff going on here. For the shock effect, for the in-this-together.

Brother lives in Belgium, their 2nd wave was v bad, but schools opened since Christmas, kids at soccer training and swimming, retail is open,,,,,, and COVID cases same as us..,

Something doesn’t add up, I never thought retail was an issue here or the schools, the construction piece is just madness.

igCorcaigh

“Almost 90% of cases in Ireland are the B117 variant. The increased transmissibility of this variant is apparent in the current profile of the disease in households”

-
@ronan_glynn
says 1 in 3 household contacts are now testing positive for COVID-19