Covid 19 Part XXXII-215,743 ROI (4,137 deaths)111,166 NI (2,036 deaths)(22/02)Read OP

JP Liz V1

stephenjmcd wrote: »

650 new cases

57 deaths, 1 from November, 1 from December, 21 January, 34 February

RIP, deaths still high

KrustyUCC

RIP

That's a super case figure but a lot lower than swabs today

Might lead to a bit of a backlog but great progress

JP Liz V1

igCorcaigh wrote: »

“Almost 90% of cases in Ireland are the B117 variant. The increased transmissibility of this variant is apparent in the current profile of the disease in households”
-
@ronan_glynn
says 1 in 3 household contacts are now testing positive for COVID-19

What variant strain is that?

stephenjmcd

igCorcaigh wrote: »

“Almost 90% of cases in Ireland are the B117 variant. The increased transmissibility of this variant is apparent in the current profile of the disease in households”

-
@ronan_glynn
says 1 in 3 household contacts are now testing positive for COVID-19

See this bugs me, they tell people to stay at home and then flag up household contacts testing positive... well that's what happens when your telling people to stay at home but 1 person brings it into the house.

More transmissible or not, the weather's been crap and people are indoors

is_that_so

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

What variant strain is that?

The UK one from Kent. Vaccines are effective against it.

is_that_so

KrustyUCC wrote: »

RIP

That's a super case figure but a lot lower than swabs today

Might lead to a bit of a backlog but great progress

Will you stop it with the backlogs?!

CalamariFritti

stephenjmcd wrote: »

See this bugs me, they tell people to stay at home and then flag up household contacts testing positive... well that's what happens when your telling people to stay at home but 1 person brings it into the house.

And I still dont believe a word about the increased transmission rate of the variant.
I tried to hunt it down on google and when it comes down to how they actually make that up methodology wise I swear I wondered did they guy who wrote the article even understand what they were saying. Call me ignorant - maybe I am - but I call BS on that all the way.

Turtwig

stephenjmcd wrote: »

See this bugs me, they tell people to stay at home and then flag up household contacts testing positive... well that's what happens when your telling people to stay at home but 1 person brings it into the house.

More transmissible or not, the weather's been crap and people are indoors

The point here isn't to chatise people for their household contact. Glynn is merely trying to illustrate how the new variant is more transmissible.

stephenjmcd

Turtwig wrote: »

The point here isn't to chatise people for their household contact. Glynn is merely trying to illustrate how the new variant is more transmissible.

Never said it was, wouldn't chatise anyone like that.

The point is its the time of year anyway when people spend more time at home. More time at home is more time indoors hence better chance of picking it up if someone is unfortunate enough to bring it home.

More transmissible or not more people are spending more time indoors which can increase close contacts in the home.

It's just something else to think about really, nothing more nothing less.

KrustyUCC

is_that_so wrote: »

Will you stop it with the backlogs?!

Ha fair enough

Just a large gap in the two figures

Great progress this week though

176 reduced cases for the three days so far this week compared to last week

Wolf359f

CalamariFritti wrote: »

And I still dont believe a word about the increased transmission rate of the variant.
I tried to hunt it down on google and when it comes down to how they actually make that up methodology wise I swear I wondered did they guy who wrote the article even understand what they were saying. Call me ignorant - maybe I am - but I call BS on that all the way.

There was a detailed study in the UK comparing the number of close contacts testing positive with the Kent strain compared to the previous strains and showed a notable increase, leading to the assumption it's more transmissible.

Jim_Hodge

stephenjmcd wrote: »

See this bugs me, they tell people to stay at home and then flag up household contacts testing positive... well that's what happens when your telling people to stay at home but 1 person brings it into the house.

More transmissible or not, the weather's been crap and people are indoors

That's not what he was getting at.

CalamariFritti

Wolf359f wrote: »

There was a detailed study in the UK comparing the number of close contacts testing positive with the Kent strain compared to the previous strains and showed a notable increase, leading to the assumption it's more transmissible.

Have you a link to that please? Would like to see for myself. Thanks

Doctor Jimbob

Turtwig wrote: »

The point here isn't to chatise people for their household contact. Glynn is merely trying to illustrate how the new variant is more transmissible.

Is it more transmissible, or is the fact that viruses tend to transmit more readily at this time of year coming in to play?

caveat emptor

Wolf359f wrote: »

There was a detailed study in the UK comparing the number of close contacts testing positive with the Kent strain compared to the previous strains and showed a notable increase, leading to the assumption it's more transmissible.

Also if it is accounting for 90% of cases now how did it become so dominant?

Here's an example where over infection cycles it becomes more dominant by infecting more people each and every time.

UsBus

Large number of counties with consistent single digit cases. No reason to not allow travel within each of these counties. Targeted lockdown for areas with higher cases or outbreaks, similar to what was done in Laois Offaly kildare

KrustyUCC

UsBus wrote: »

Large number of counties with consistent single digit cases. No reason to not allow travel within each of these counties. Targeted lockdown for areas with higher cases or outbreaks, similar to what was done in Laois Offaly kildare

Can't see the government doing that

Just an extension to the current restrictions until after Easter at the earliest bar construction and schools

CalamariFritti

caveat emptor wrote: »

Also if it is accounting for 90% of cases now how did it become so dominant?

Here's an example where over infection cycles it becomes more dominant by infecting more people each and every time.

The dominant strain has changed several times over the last year. It in itself is not proof of more transmissible.

Its basically a chaos system. In which we only see a all window to begin with. I am highly sceptical. Not necessarily that it isn't - it may well be - but how they came up with that and so quickly.

I am really trying to follow their line I really am. I am interested professionally not just as a cantankerous anti restriction guy.

jhegarty

KrustyUCC wrote: »

RIP

That's a super case figure but a lot lower than swabs today

Might lead to a bit of a backlog but great progress

Monday was the other way around 821 cases vs 645 swabs. So might be from that.

Benimar

jhegarty wrote: »

Monday was the other way around 821 cases vs 645 swabs. So might be from that.

Not likely. Hard to have cases before the swab!

There had been a backlog building up so Monday was a bit of that. 288 shortfall today sounds a lot for ‘duplicate cases’ but the next few days will tell.

muddypuppy

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Never said it was, wouldn't chatise anyone like that.

The point is its the time of year anyway when people spend more time at home. More time at home is more time indoors hence better chance of picking it up if someone is unfortunate enough to bring it home.

More transmissible or not more people are spending more time indoors which can increase close contacts in the home.

It's just something else to think about really, nothing more nothing less.

I don't think the weather/time of the year make a big difference on how much people spend indoor to be honest. During normal times summer or winter most activities are still indoor (work, sleep, pub, restaurant, museum, cinemas, gyms). Maybe a bit more walking and the occasional hike, but I doubt it accounts for more than 10% difference.

is_that_so

A post from this day last year!


https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=112569204&postcount=6716

manofwisdom

First time to have a Wednesday case number under 1000 since December. I didn't jinx it afterall @TheDoctor

marno21

One of the reasons the Kent strain has become dominant is that most of the large outbreaks around Christmas were seeded by people coming from the UK, where that strain was spreading and then not abiding by the rules when they came home.

I know of one person who returned from London, isolated, tested negative on day 5, then later tested positive but had already infected 10+ people. The area in question had 0 cases before this, so the Kent strain became the variant in 100% of the cases. Nothing whatsoever to do with transmissibility in this case.

The R0 in recent weeks has been the lowest in Europe going by fall in incidence rate, as outlined by Colm Henry. That would not suggest increased transmissibility as our European peers don’t have quite the dominance that we have in relation to B117.

Wolf359f

CalamariFritti wrote: »

Have you a link to that please? Would like to see for myself. Thanks

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/950823/Variant_of_Concern_VOC_202012_01_Technical_Briefing_3_-_England.pdf
I think it's page 15/16 which does the comparison.

Gruffalux

is_that_so wrote: »

A post from this day last year!


https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=112569204&postcount=6716

If you want to laugh at someone why not mock your own efforts from a year ago. I clicked there fully presuming that is what it would be.

timsey tiger

blowitupref wrote: »

Worth taking into account that most of not all of those that died of or with Covid are reported now.

While I'm sure we had plenty that died in early part of the first wave that didn't know they had covid as they weren't tested for it.

Excess mortality figures do not support that belief.

MerlinSouthDub

stephenjmcd wrote: »

See this bugs me, they tell people to stay at home and then flag up household contacts testing positive... well that's what happens when your telling people to stay at home but 1 person brings it into the house.

More transmissible or not, the weather's been crap and people are indoors

Yeah, it’s ridiculous. At a minimum, they should be encouraging people to get outdoors as much as they can.

brick tamland

marno21 wrote: »

One of the reasons the Kent strain has become dominant is that most of the large outbreaks around Christmas were seeded by people coming from the UK, where that strain was spreading and then not abiding by the rules when they came home.

I know of one person who returned from London, isolated, tested negative on day 5, then later tested positive but had already infected 10+ people. The area in question had 0 cases before this, so the Kent strain became the variant in 100% of the cases. Nothing whatsoever to do with transmissibility in this case.

The R0 in recent weeks has been the lowest in Europe going by fall in incidence rate, as outlined by Colm Henry. That would not suggest increased transmissibility as our European peers don’t have quite the dominance that we have in relation to B117.

There's a lot that I find hard to believe about this more transmissible variant. Still think there is an element of scaring the general public to it. About 2 weeks ago, Martin said the UK variant was increasing the R number by half a percent. Nolan said later that day the R number was currently anout 0.6 Someone's talking out of their arse there and my money isn't on nolan.

spookwoman