Covid 19 Part XXXII-215,743 ROI (4,137 deaths)111,166 NI (2,036 deaths)(22/02)Read OP

WhiteMemento9

KrustyUCC wrote: »

So keep society shut until June?

You can't rely on vaccine rollout with delays on vaccines ordered

The technical details of the level of restrictions need to keep suppression is something I'll leave to the experts and what they feel is needed.

What is your alternative? We allow another situation like Christmas and let this virus run out of control while we now have new variants in the mix that could ultimately threaten a near-complete return to normality through vaccines. I know this feels like moving goalposts where we never actually score but we all know the rollout will happen soon. You want to threaten the effectiveness and success of this for the sake of a couple of months.

We can't have anymore short-term thinking in this very important period.

Aph2016

WhiteMemento9 wrote: »

Feels like groundhog day in here. The same voices who shouted loudest before the easing of restrictions at Christmas that led to this incredibly restrictive, lengthy lockdown now out in force again trotting out the same tired stuff. Goldfish memories.

We are so close to a vaccine rollout which gives a proper safe route out of this situation. I know this isn't happening as quickly as people like but it is the end game and rushing into a plan without this isn't an option.

I keep seeing the "same voices" who are on full pay WFH trying to call out the other side for being selfish, it's very easy to say that when your mortgage and bills are covered and you're saving more money that ever before. Give over.

Polar101

MattS1 wrote: »

Why? It can definitely be done. Obviously more complex that I laid out but you get the idea.

It would encourage more buy in if people take the piss then things get closed etc.

The criteria for switching between levels could have been included in the "Living" with Covid "plan".

It's just they couldn't be too set in stone - if we used the 100/50 criteria for L3, and then got stuck at 110/55 for a month, that wouldn't work either.

In hindsight it was a stupid idea to have 5 levels (of which we'll only use "two, except Dublin and Donegal", "three and a bit" and "five with enhanced restrictions"), that's way too complex.

WhiteMemento9

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

I was against opening at Christmas. I'm also against level 5 until summer despite declining numbers.

We managed fine last summer with level 3 without any vaccines. Goldfish memories indeed.

If the experts feel that we can do level 3 while suppressing the virus then I have no problem. All I am saying is that the opening should be based on that advice and not a desire to open because we have been in lockdown "too long".

niallo27

Aph2016 wrote: »

I keep seeing the "same voices" who are on full pay WFH trying to call out the other side for being selfish, it's very easy to say that when your mortgage and bills are covered and you're saving more money that ever before. Give over.

Some people just want to watch the world burn.

giveitholly

Jim_Hodge wrote: »

If so it'll be a slow unwinding. Boris said as much today when warning their lifting of restrictions will be very gradual "based firmly on a cautious and prudent approach"

Doesn't look too slow to me

https://twitter.com/higginsdavidw/status/1362160436494368769?s=19

jackboy

WhiteMemento9 wrote: »

The technical details of the level of restrictions need to keep suppression is something I'll leave to the experts and what they feel is needed.

The technical details as you say are not being decided by experts. The guards chasing people around beaches and up mountains does not have a significant impact on the virus spread. An adult should not have to look for an expert to tell them that.

We know the spread at Christmas was largely caused by house parties and pubs not complying with restrictions. The same happened with the autumn spike. These are the type of things which should be focused on.

Arghus

WhiteMemento9 wrote: »

Feels like groundhog day in here. The same voices who shouted loudest before the easing of restrictions at Christmas that led to this incredibly restrictive, lengthy lockdown now out in force again trotting out the same tired stuff. Goldfish memories.

We are so close to a vaccine rollout which gives a proper safe route out of this situation. I know this isn't happening as quickly as people like but it is the end game and rushing into a plan without this isn't an option.

It's predictable the way it goes. The forum has quietened down as most people don't have much to say from day to day - everyone I know and interact with accepts that this will be a longer period than what we originally thought - and we are where we are until case numbers drop substantially and vaccination begins to make a dent. So the forum is a bit less busy than usual, aside from the proportion of anti restrictioners who are as motivated as ever to post and are even more encouraged because the relative lack of everyone else makes their views more prominent.

thebronze14

niallo27 wrote: »

Definitely a big shift in mentatility lately especially in this thread which would mainly be lockdown supporters thread. They have disappeared. How fair of a reflection is boards to general society.

Had my mate around last weekend and having another with his partner this weekend...Like myself they are WFH at the moment and bar going to Tesco and exercising I'm not really leaving the house so far my own personal sanity I think it's the right call. More damage is being done to me not seeing people. Wouldn't have done this in previous lockdowns but there appears no end to this one. Most friends of mine have done likewise. I'd say a big amount of people are doing similar but not letting on

MerlinSouthDub

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

Bizarre story here. Child tests negative for Covid but we are going to blame Covid for it anyway:

https://m.independent.ie/irish-news/our-5-year-old-is-in-icu-with-covid-linked-illness-40103698.html

Seems far more likely that an infection from the cut he got is the cause of his illness.

Yet another example of dreadful journalism.

A bacterial infection is easy to diagnose. PIMS is a real thing. Incredibly rare thankfully

MerlinSouthDub

Deleted User wrote: »

A bacterial infection is easy to diagnose. PIMS is a real thing. Incredibly rare thankfully

Oh I agree. I’m just a bit dubious of the 4th hand information and what the actual diagnosis is in this case, particularly given the negative Covid test.

Jim_Hodge

giveitholly wrote: »

Doesn't look too slow to me

https://twitter.com/higginsdavidw/status/1362160436494368769?s=19

Completely at odds with Boris speaking on the BBC a few hours ago. Take your pick.

KrustyUCC

WhiteMemento9 wrote: »

The technical details of the level of restrictions need to keep suppression is something I'll leave to the experts and what they feel is needed.

What is your alternative? We allow another situation like Christmas and let this virus run out of control while we now have new variants in the mix that could ultimately threaten a near-complete return to normality through vaccines. I know this feels like moving goalposts where we never actually score but we all know the rollout will happen soon. You want to threaten the effectiveness and success of this for the sake of a couple of months.

We can't have anymore short-term thinking in this very important period.

You need to give people hope and something to work towards

Not everybody partied at Christmas

I only got out for 1 meal with my fiance as we were both having family for Christmas and were being careful

Dad and his siblings went on a rota system so they could visit nana safely over a couple of days

In 2019 we had a major sing song and for many years previously with nana and grandad when he was alive

None of that this year

As a result we've all as a society had to endure three months of level 5+ up to March 5th

Stay at home be good boys and girls

Now it seems for another month the only thing open will be schools

4 months until after Easter on level 5+ with construction shut

I can understand reluctance to open up too quickly

However we need a plan

Having a living with covid plan with no dates is not a plan

Not telling society what metrics will be used to inform decisions is not on

I hated the old plan last year which was painfully slow in three week increments but you had dates to work towards

When retail would open
When I could see my grandparents within the county
When I could see friends in other counties

We don't even have that this year

No it's just slow painful reopening with a target for next Christmas for all we know

Stay away from forfeign holidays but we won't even say if you can staycation in June, July or August

People will not keep restrictions with no light at the end of the tunnel

My friend hasn't seen his partner since 20th of December

No way are they waiting until intercounty travel comes back to see each other again as that could be 5-6 months the way Leo & Co are spinning

Do the government actually think it's reasonable to ask couples like that to keep apart for that length of time?

There might not be anything open but people won't blindly accept ongoing restrictions either

The rollout won't be completed until September according to the government

That's if all vaccines on the list are approved, are delivered on time and we can actually roll it on time

Lot's of it's, buts and maybe but it will be the game changer

In the meantime people won't stop living and we can't keep society shut down for over half a year

The longer you shut down the more expensive it and the money borrowed is not free and will need to be paid back

I regurgitate the news

I regurgitate the news wrote: »

I do know of three people who were marked as Covid 19 deaths (and I am not disputing that they were tested positive) however one was suffering from Cancer for many months, one had pneumonia and in the other case the son of the person was not happy with having cause of death of Covid 19.

I know in the last instance you can say that this is hearsay however I do think it is disingenuous to put a cancer victim down as a Covid 19 death.

Very interesting. I wonder is there any disease thats been circulating the world for the past year that causes pneumonia?

marno21

giveitholly wrote: »

Doesn't look too slow to me

https://twitter.com/higginsdavidw/status/1362160436494368769?s=19

Country of origin of the dangerous variant that MM is ****less of plans opening of hospitality whereas we are planning a possible partial return of construction in April.

If construction was affected by this variant, the UK would have been fúcked. They got on just fine.

Jim_Hodge

niallo27 wrote: »

How fair of a reflection is boards to general society.

Based on election polls etc over the years, it seems not to be representative at all.

MerlinSouthDub

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

Oh I agree. I’m just a bit dubious of the 4th hand information and what the actual diagnosis is in this case, particularly given the negative Covid test.

PIMS is a post viral condition. Not surprising at all that they tested negative. Now given that Covid is the most prevalent virus this year it is probably the most likely virus that triggered the boys condition. We can be pretty much certain it wasn’t flu anyway

Edit: actually PIMS is a specific diagnosis associated with previous COVID-19 infection. The doctors in Crumlin must be pretty sure.

https://www.gosh.nhs.uk/conditions-and-treatments/conditions-we-treat/paediatric-inflammatory-multisystem-syndrome-pims/

Doctor Jimbob

WhiteMemento9 wrote: »

If the experts feel that we can do level 3 while suppressing the virus then I have no problem. All I am saying is that the opening should be based on that advice and not a desire to open because we have been in lockdown "too long".

I can't see any reason why the experts wouldn't think that level 3 would work given all they need to do is look at last summer.

I don't even disagree that the opening should be based on expert advice. But we have absolutely no idea what the expert advice will be in March let alone April or May yet we're still talking about not opening up until then.

MerlinSouthDub

[Deleted User] wrote: »

PIMS is a post viral condition. Not surprising at all that they tested negative. Now given that Covid is the most prevalent virus this year it is probably the most likely virus that triggered the boys condition. We can be pretty much certain it wasn’t flu anyway

I don't doubt that PIMS can happen in rare circumstances. What I do doubt is that the grandparents have accurately reported what the parents were told by a doctor or nurse. We have no evidence that the child has actually been diagnosed with PIMS

PTH2009

Dr Tony and NPHET have full control their advice is always considered and taken, sure if they dont get there way they will take to social media and complain

No way are they going to advise anything under level 4 because of the potential variants that may/will exist

Stheno

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

I don't doubt that PIMS can happen in rare circumstances. What I do doubt is that the grandparents have accurately reported what the parents were told by a doctor or nurse. We have no evidence that the child has actually been diagnosed with PIMS

I'd actually use the grandparents lack of knowledge about PIMS as evidence the child has been diagnosed with it tbh, they seem somewhat ill educated

I don't have children and was aware of PIMS and covid last year

These grandparents seemed to have no clue at all

Spanish Eyes

Be the rebel. We know how that turned out over Christmas and before.

Off you go. I will have to wait for the JJ vaccine because of age. But there is hope, and it looks like it will be the Flu vaccine of the future. One dose, no cryogenic freezers either. Can be administered anywhere.

Be fkn positive FGS.

MerlinSouthDub

Stheno wrote: »

I'd actually use the grandparents lack of knowledge about PIMS as evidence the child has been diagnosed with it tbh, they seem somewhat ill educated

I don't have children and was aware of PIMS and covid last year

These grandparents seemed to have no clue at all

I don't agree. Journalist looking for a story could easily have put words in their mouths. Happens all the time
Journalist tells them about PIMS, asks them if they think it could be that etc. It's the way a lot of journalists work these days, unfortunately.

brick tamland

brick tamland wrote: »

There's a lot that I find hard to believe about this more transmissible variant. Still think there is an element of scaring the general public to it. About 2 weeks ago, Martin said the UK variant was increasing the R number by half a percent. Nolan said later that day the R number was currently anout 0.6 Someone's talking out of their arse there and my money isn't on nolan.

Not that I don't agree with you, but I just wanted to clarify what a per cent is, and what it isn't.

I usually only get to trot this out around election time, so I'm pleased to get a new chance to do it!

My usual analogy is that Fianna Fáil got 30% at the last election. Lots of people would say, FF suffered a 5% drop in their vote at this election, and they're now at 25%.

But that's a drop in percentage points, not in percentage.

If FF suffered a 5% drop in their vote, they'd actually be at 28.5%.

In this case it's similar.

Nolan said the R number was at 0.6, and Martin said the UK variant increased the number by a half of one percent.

People expected that to mean that the R number would therefore be 1.1 - but it's not. An increase of half a percent from an R=0.6 actually means the new R would be 0.603.

Whilst Martin has almost certainly taken the worst scenario he can find and is deliberately trying to terrorise people, they could well both be right.

I regurgitate the news wrote: »

I have to disagree. I think they did a terrible job on their predictions. Neil Ferguson in the UK has a history of terrible predictions.

I well remember Sam McConkey charging around the place screeching that a quarter million people were going to die in Ireland.

niallo27 wrote: »

I'm giving it till end of February, then to **** with it. I'm going back meeting family and friends. Have enough of nphet running this country.

Same for me. I will be abiding by restrictions until March 5th, and no longer.

I'm no longer prepared to live my life under restrictions ordered by an unelected doctor who has no plan other than mass house arrest, implemented by a Government of dubious provenance.

PTH2009 wrote: »

Dr Tony and NPHET have full control their advice is always considered and taken, sure if they dont get there way they will take to social media and complain

No way are they going to advise anything under level 4 because of the potential variants that may/will exist

NPHET should have been told after the autumn Level 5 débacle that its members must choose between being advisers or campaigners.

If they want to advise the Government, they should do so in private, and not through the Late Late Show.

agoodpunt

I dont trust the numbers coming from HSE on cases and deaths broadcast on the RTE daily news they both have an insentive to up numbers npet/rte are happy to control weak goverance for there own importance HSE is a bad service for all the money ploughed into it
that said i dont look RTE anymore

D.Q

b0nk1e wrote: »

Same for me. I will be abiding by restrictions until March 5th, and no longer.

I'm no longer prepared to live my life under restrictions ordered by an unelected doctor who has no plan other than mass house arrest, implemented by a Government of dubious provenance.

Same here. Indefinite rolling level 5, seemingly without any light at the end of the tunnel is sadistic.

Thos government is an absolute disgrace. They can't even be ****ed addressing the public. Leaking stuff through parliamentary party meetings to their scum hack mates.

Stheno

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

I don't agree. Journalist looking for a story could easily have put words in their mouths. Happens all the time
Journalist tells them about PIMS, asks them if they think it could be that etc. It's the way a lot of journalists work these days, unfortunately.

We may both be right

marno21

b0nk1e wrote: »

I'm no longer prepared to live my life under restrictions ordered by an unelected doctor who has no plan other than mass house arrest, implemented by a Government of dubious provenance.

I disagree with this narrative. TH told Government it was a choice between hospitality and household visits before Xmas. Government went off and let hospitality be a seed for a massive Christmas outbreak.

If TH was ordering stuff we wouldn't be in this mess, schools & construction would not have been closed and we would probably be able to survive on Level 3/4 at this stage.

D.Q

marno21 wrote: »

If TH was ordering stuff we wouldn't be in this mess, schools & construction would not have been closed and we would probably be able to survive on Level 3/4 at this stage.

Oh come off it. Wed still be locked down. He didn't want to open up when there was ten cases a day during the summer.

AdamD

marno21 wrote: »

I disagree with this narrative. TH told Government it was a choice between hospitality and household visits before Xmas. Government went off and let hospitality be a seed for a massive Christmas outbreak.

If TH was ordering stuff we wouldn't be in this mess, schools & construction would not have been closed and we would probably be able to survive on Level 3/4 at this stage.

Level 4 is as bleak as level 5