Covid 19 Part XXXII-215,743 ROI (4,137 deaths)111,166 NI (2,036 deaths)(22/02)Read OP

prunudo

Opening construction on March 5th is not being populist, its using common sense, a huge amount of construction goes on outdoors and in well ventilated buildings, the government are forgetting the fundamentals on how the virus spreads. Tony being worried about mixing on sites obviously hasn't driven around Dublin lately, the majority of units in business parks and industrial estates are open and working away yet numbers are still declining.

Similarly there is no reason to keep the 5km restriction, it was brought in after Christmas when cases were over 8k a day, it is not justified when they are presently a tenth of that and will be lower again in 2 weeks time.

The government need to grow a pair and take control of the situation with both decisive actions and a clamp down on kite flying and leaks.

Doctor Jimbob

gozunda wrote: »

Could we have a bit of basic cop on about the current situation?

Just over a month ago Ireland had one of the world’s highest covid-19 infection rates largely
due to increased 'social mixing and reduction of physical distancing over Christmas'

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2021/01/15/ireland-has-one-of-the-worlds-highest-covid-19-infection-rates

We've just got that down - and we have some screaming that they are fed up with the whole thing again . Wtf? We are all fed up.

But no - it shouldn't be about needing to be told exactly when next we can all do the conga - but more importantly it's still about keeping the rate of infection down and stopping our health services being overrun. God forbid that we end up with another Christmas rerun with rising cases with an even more infectious varient in the staring role

I don't think anyone reasonable is asking for us to open everything up next week or anything. We just need something to give us a bit of hope. We should never have opened up to the extent we did at Christmas. Our case numbers were rising and it's the time of year when viruses generally spread most easily. That doesn't mean it's right to go to the other extreme now and keep everything closed despite declining case numbers. Those numbers are still high at the moment, and it's obviously too soon to lift restrictions. Pushing the end date of the restrictions back every week is just really, really disheartening though. Can we not just wait until the review we were supposed to have in March? Instead we're being told we're stuck like this until May. That's 3 months away FFS. We have no idea what situation we'll be in by then.

Happydays2020

prunudo wrote: »

Opening construction on March 5th is not being populist, its using common sense, a huge amount of construction goes on outdoors and in well ventilated buildings, the government are forgetting the fundamentals on how the virus spreads. Tony being worried about mixing on sites obviously hasn't driven around Dublin lately, the majority of units in business parks and industrial estates are open and working away yet numbers are still declining.

Similarly there is no reason to keep the 5km restriction, it was brought in after Christmas when cases were over 8k a day, it is not justified when they are presently a tenth of that and will be lower again in 2 weeks time.

The government need to grow a pair and take control of the situation with both decisive actions and a clamp down on kite flying and leaks.

Everything is about balance. And reopening the economy is balanced.

lawred2

stephenjmcd wrote: »

650 new cases

57 deaths, 1 from November, 1 from December, 21 January, 34 February

Why are deaths announced daily like this if they are not daily?

Most people I speak to believe that the 57 people would have died in the 24 hours before the numbers were announced!

prunudo

Happydays2020 wrote: »

Everything is about balance. And reopening the economy is balanced.

But nothing has reopened or looks to be reopened so how is that balancing the economy.
Facebook are allowed to contuine construction on their massive data centre yet Tommy with his crew of 3 who is building a one off house in Tipperary can't. That's not balanced.

prunudo

lawred2 wrote: »

Why are deaths announced daily like this if they are not daily?

Most people I speak to believe that 57 people died in the 24 hours before the numbers were announced!

To scare people into compliance.

But at the same time when they announced 100 one day in January, its quite possible when retrospective numbers are added that there were close to that on particular days during the peak.

Bobeagleburger

I'd rather they just vaccinate as many people as possible, even if it means an extra few months of lockdown, rather than it getting out of control again.

The government ignored nphet in December and it looks like it'll take 5/6 months to fix that **** up. That's on them. Nobody wants this dragging into 2022.

Vaccinations are already making a difference in over 85s. Just a waiting game at this stage.

robbiezero

6 wrote: »

I'd rather they just vaccinate as many people as possible, even if it means an extra few months of lockdown, rather than it getting out of control again.

The government ignored nphet in December and it looks like it'll take 5/6 months to fix that **** up. That's on them. Nobody wants this dragging into 2022.

Vaccinations are already making a difference in over 85s. Just a waiting game at this stage.

The Christmas spike was coming regardless. It would be naive to think that it was solely caused by hospitality.
Also NPHET hadn't a rashers that the surge would be the extent it was.
I'm not excusing this hopeless Government, but I don't think its fair that NPHET get a free pass on what happened at Christmas either.

Happydays2020

robbiezero wrote: »

The Christmas spike was coming regardless. It would be naive to think that it was solely caused by hospitality.
Also NPHET hadn't a rashers that the surge would be the extent it was.
I'm not excusing this hopeless Government, but I don't think its fair that NPHET get a free pass on what happened at Christmas either.

I think you are right. There was a pent up demand for social contact and it would have happened to a big extent anyway.

Gruffalux

lawred2 wrote: »

Why are deaths announced daily like this if they are not daily?

Most people I speak to believe that the 57 people would have died in the 24 hours before the numbers were announced!

Most people do not believe that. Most people are intelligent enough. If you want to give out about death reports not being to your liking or (like others) being a tool for manipulation, just divide the total by days to get something that you might accept.
2230 deaths on dec 30th. 4040 now. Thats 1810 in the 50 days since dec 30th. 36 every day. 43% every day this year above normal mortality numbers in Ireland. Perhaps you can work better with that approach.

Happydays2020

Gruffalux wrote: »

Most people do not believe that. Most people are intelligent enough. If you want to give out about death reports not being to your liking or (like others) being a tool for manipulation, just divide the total by days to get something that you might accept.
2230 deaths on dec 30th. 4040 now. Thats 1810 in the 50 days since dec 30th. 36 every day. 43% every day this year above normal mortality numbers in Ireland. Perhaps you can work better with that approach.

Where did you find the data on 43% - is this the work Seamus Coffey is doing on excess deaths? Any data on excess deaths for 2020 as a whole?

runawaybishop

lawred2 wrote: »

Why are deaths announced daily like this if they are not daily?

Most people I speak to believe that the 57 people would have died in the 24 hours before the numbers were announced!

They are announced as the info comes in. The families of the deceased have 3 months to register the death. This has been mentioned several times in various reports.

Gruffalux

Happydays2020 wrote: »

Where did you find the data on 43% - is this the work Seamus Coffey is doing on excess deaths? Any data on excess deaths for 2020 as a whole?

83 or 84 is our normal daily number of deaths in Ireland. 36 is 43% of 83.

lawred2

Gruffalux wrote: »

Most people do not believe that. Most people are intelligent enough. If you want to give out about death reports not being to your liking or (like others) being a tool for manipulation, just divide the total by days to get something that you might accept.
2230 deaths on dec 30th. 4040 now. Thats 1810 in the 50 days since dec 30th. 36 every day. 43% every day this year above normal mortality numbers in Ireland. Perhaps you can work better with that approach.

That's what you believe. As a resident of a covid thread.

But death figures as headlines delivered with daily case numbers are most definitely been taken by many people to mean daily death figures.

From your tone I can only assume you're presuming you're speaking to some covid denier. You're not.

"... giving out", "...something I might accept"

uuuurgggghh

Gruffalux

robbiezero wrote: »

The Christmas spike was coming regardless. It would be naive to think that it was solely caused by hospitality.
Also NPHET hadn't a rashers that the surge would be the extent it was.
I'm not excusing this hopeless Government, but I don't think its fair that NPHET get a free pass on what happened at Christmas either.

The Christmas spike did not happen regardless in Germany and France to any degree similar to ours. We even spiked more than the UK. We were almost the best at spiking, with Portugal maybe. It does not help to absolve agency from people if looking to adjust reality to ones preferred narrative.

Happydays2020

prunudo wrote: »

But nothing has reopened or looks to be reopened so how is that balancing the economy.
Facebook are allowed to contuine construction on their massive data centre yet Tommy with his crew of 3 who is building a one off house in Tipperary can't. That's not balanced.

Fair enough. But there was good reason for that exception in terms of the economy. And I think construction should be reopened more broadly next month.

robbiezero

Happydays2020 wrote: »

I think you are right. There was a pent up demand for social contact and it would have happened to a big extent anyway.

Yep.
If they hadnt opened hospitality they would be likely getting hammered for enabling the house parties that caused the surge and not allowing people to socialize in a controlled environment.

Gruffalux

lawred2 wrote: »

That's what you believe. As a resident of a covid thread.

But death figures as headlines delivered with daily case numbers are most definitely been taken by many people to mean daily death figures.

From your tone I can only assume your presuming you're speaking to some covid denier. You're not.

"... giving out", "...something I might accept"

uuuurgggghh

If people cannot figure out the reality of death number reports then they must rollercoaster dangerously between happiness and horror day by day. From 0 to 100 back to 10 then 70. I dont believe people are generally so silly.

runawaybishop

lawred2 wrote: »

But death figures as headlines delivered with daily case numbers are most definitely been taken by many people to mean daily death figures

Well, people should read past the headlines. We have been told several times in various reports that the deaths aren't all from the same day, week or even month due to how people register deaths. It's why we used rip.ie info initially to estimate the daily deaths for calcing excess mortality as people tend to put info up on there very fast, but for various reasons may not register the death immediately.

robbiezero

Gruffalux wrote: »

The Christmas spike did not happen regardless in Germany and France to any degree similar to ours. We even spiked more than the UK. We were almost the best at spiking, with Portugal maybe. It does not help to absolve agency from people if looking to adjust reality to ones preferred narrative.

Had they just come out of a 5/6 week Level 5 lockdown at the start of December with the promise of another one in January? Were they among the most locked down countries in Europe for most of last year?
If not then waste of time comparing.

lawred2

runawaybishop wrote: »

Well, people should read past the headlines. We have been told several times in various reports that the deaths aren't all from the same day, week or even month due to how people register deaths. It's why we used rip.ie info initially to estimate the daily deaths for calcing excess mortality as people tend to put info up on there very fast, but for various reasons may not register the death immediately.

Of course they should.

But we see with Brexit that people don't read beyond a big red bus.

Not everyone sits on boards.

gozunda

lawred2 wrote: »

Why are deaths announced daily like this if they are not daily?

Most people I speak to believe that the 57 people would have died in the 24 hours before the numbers were announced!

Because cause of death are not always made immediately available due to administrative or medical reason ie autopsy and deaths may be registered late by a family. But they still have to be accouted for.

The added numbers are generally low so as in the case you gave dont change the total significantly. This has been well detailed.

And there's no conspiracy :rolleyes: as some above have suggested

What Username Guidelines

Was donating blood and they’re now asking if you’ve been a confirmed case for the purposes of donating plasma. I’m not, but if you’ve had it, they test for antibodies, and invite to donate if levels are sufficient, to use the plasma in treatment here.

is_that_so

Gruffalux wrote: »

If you want to laugh at someone why not mock your own efforts from a year ago. I clicked there fully presuming that is what it would be.

I am always fascinated by how posters think they have insight into others from a single sentence. I just find it interesting to dip into the past threads from time to time and share the odd post. It's a random post and it's the date I chose but you fashion whatever narrative suits you out of that.

Gael23

NPHET new hugely concerned

alentejo

I think the Xmas spike was the UK variant being added into the mix very quietly in December and once it was found out in Ireland, it was too late. Back in December, NPHET projections where that 1000 per day infections was the worst estimate for infection with Ireland reopening, however this assumption was made without knowledge of the UK variant.

I think the feeling in Gov at the time was, we could handle 1000 per day with a short lockdown in January with schools open etc.

The UK variant probably picked the perfect 2 weeks of the year to join the party.

PmMeUrDogs

Gael23 wrote: »

NPHET new hugely concerned

NPHET are always hugely concerned. They were hugely concerned at single digit daily cases

Happydays2020

Gael23 wrote: »

NPHET new hugely concerned

I noticed that the levels of vomit on pavements in the morning around Dublin is on the increase - levels not seen since mid December. So indoor parties are on the increase.

Gruffalux

alentejo wrote: »

I think the Xmas spike was the UK variant being added into the mix very quietly in December and once it was found out in Ireland, it was too late. Back in December, NPHET projections where that 1000 per day infections was the worst estimate for infection with Ireland reopening, however this assumption was made without knowledge of the UK variant.

I think the feeling in Gov at the time was, we could handle 1000 per day with a short lockdown in January with schools open etc.

The UK variant probably picked the perfect 2 weeks of the year to join the party.

Do you think the UK variant might possibly have hitched a ride here on Christmas visitation flights where we had no negative test requirement, no quarantine, no isolate system in place because we would not like to do that to lovely visitors...or only eegits in Zero Covid mad spots do that kind of stuff? We even had repatriation flights for 1500 people. 54000 people flew in for Christmas and it was not until the second week in January that we thought PCR test results might be a good idea. :rolleyes:

Cluedo Monopoly

lawred2 wrote: »

Why are deaths announced daily like this if they are not daily?

Most people I speak to believe that the 57 people would have died in the 24 hours before the numbers were announced!

Take no notice of the daily death number. It tells you very little.

This link shows the deaths by date-of-death (Click on Week 6 and go to the graph on Page 27)

https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/coronavirus/novelcoronavirus/surveillance/epidemiologyofcovid-19inirelandweeklyreports/

The death rate peaked at end of January and start of February and is trending down significantly since then (see the 7 day moving average). Obviously there is a lag with these numbers but any numbers over a week ago are usually pretty stable. We should see a lot more improvement over the coming weeks.