Covid 19 Part XXXII-215,743 ROI (4,137 deaths)111,166 NI (2,036 deaths)(22/02)Read OP

Bigfatmichael

8 out of 10 people had an underlying condition from this article.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/covid-19-majority-of-fatalities-had-underlying-conditions-1.4471443

Ficheall

Atlantic Dawn wrote: »

The complete opposite, they need to be shielded and at the top of any vaccination list which is exactly what I said in my earlier post around over 50's and those 16-50 with underlying conditions needing vaccination before opening up.

In the general population, it's about what, 25% of all people who have underlying conditions? Would make the rollout shorter but a lot more complex, I suspect, with some people unaware of their underlying conditions and others trying to convince their GP they have them to get the shot..

Coybig_

Coybig_ wrote: »

2019: https://www.irishmirror.ie/news/irish-news/irish-hospitals-breaking-point-after-21172185


2018: https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/nurses-say-2018-worst-year-ever-for-overcrowding-in-public-hospitals-1.3745522


2017: https://www.newstalk.com/news/irish-hospitals-continue-to-face-record-overcrowding-526759


2016: https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/hospitals-overwhelmed-by-overcrowding-admits-varadkar-1.2505516
https://www.rte.ie/news/ireland/2016/1109/830371-university-hospital-galway/


Find a different hymn sheet to sing from. We've heard the lyrics to that one for years.

well done Brilliant.:)

Turtwig

Turtwig wrote: »

No medication or treatment is 100%. Vaccine or otherwise. That's just bullsh1t. Did O'Neill really say that?

That's such an irresponsible statement if he did.

prime time this evening, get it online..

America 2008... people are now living longer..

https://www.uptodate.com/contents/hospital-management-of-older-adults

spookwoman

Coybig_ wrote: »

2019: https://www.irishmirror.ie/news/irish-news/irish-hospitals-breaking-point-after-21172185


2018: https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/nurses-say-2018-worst-year-ever-for-overcrowding-in-public-hospitals-1.3745522


2017: https://www.newstalk.com/news/irish-hospitals-continue-to-face-record-overcrowding-526759


2016: https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/hospitals-overwhelmed-by-overcrowding-admits-varadkar-1.2505516
https://www.rte.ie/news/ireland/2016/1109/830371-university-hospital-galway/


Find a different hymn sheet to sing from. We've heard the lyrics to that one for years.

Pretty sure they didn't shut down Out Patient Clinics back then.

Wolf359f

Coybig_ wrote: »

2019: https://www.irishmirror.ie/news/irish-news/irish-hospitals-breaking-point-after-21172185


2018: https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/nurses-say-2018-worst-year-ever-for-overcrowding-in-public-hospitals-1.3745522


2017: https://www.newstalk.com/news/irish-hospitals-continue-to-face-record-overcrowding-526759


2016: https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/hospitals-overwhelmed-by-overcrowding-admits-varadkar-1.2505516
https://www.rte.ie/news/ireland/2016/1109/830371-university-hospital-galway/


Find a different hymn sheet to sing from. We've heard the lyrics to that one for years.

Wow linking to an article with the flu, trying to compare hospitals overwhelmed with covid to being overwhelmed with the flu. Do we still have people thinking covid is just the flu?

Atlantic Dawn

Ficheall wrote: »

In the general population, it's about what, 25% of all people who have underlying conditions? Would make the rollout shorter but a lot more complex, I suspect, with some people unaware of their underlying conditions and others trying to convince their GP they have them to get the shot..

Yes you will probably get an additional large number of people brought in to the vulnerable group from obesity and generally not looking after themselves as a result of the lockdowns.

Lucas Hood

Turtwig wrote: »

No medication or treatment is 100%. Vaccine or otherwise. That's just bullsh1t. Did O'Neill really say that?

That's such an irresponsible statement if he did.

He retweeted this today.
Probably what he was talking about.

"The varying “effectiveness” rates miss the most important point: The vaccines were all 100% effective in the vaccine trials in stopping hospitalizations and death. '

https://amp.usatoday.com/amp/6709455002?__twitter_impression=true

niallo27

Wolf359f wrote: »

Wow linking to an article with the flu, trying to compare hospitals overwhelmed with covid to being overwhelmed with the flu. Do we still have people thinking covid is just the flu?

Oh will you stop with this bull****, it like the default argument here when they have nothing to come back with, oh you think it's just the flu and actually what difference does it make what hospitals were overwhelmed with, be it the flu or pineapples falling on your head,nobody gave a flying **** back then but now its the end of the world scenario.

Wolf359f

Wolf359f wrote: »

Wow linking to an article with the flu, trying to compare hospitals overwhelmed with covid to being overwhelmed with the flu. Do we still have people thinking covid is just the flu?

no that old chestnut is wasted on you, dismissive and old to be honest, nobody thinks that. using that stick to beat folks with is a non sequitur to be fair..I think they're saying we are over run every year and giving examples of same. If you tell every man and woman in Ireland that a deadly disease has many many symptoms and then ask them to get tested.. guess what?? they'll be scared.. they'll turn up..and numbers will be high..what matters is deaths, and age and morbidity not overall mortality with same virus.

Patients 85 years and older are less likely to be discharged to home and more likely to die in the hospital [3]. Hospitalizations and health care spending for older adults are expected to rise as the population continues to age.

kittensmittens

Wolf359f wrote: »

Wow linking to an article with the flu, trying to compare hospitals overwhelmed with covid to being overwhelmed with the flu. Do we still have people thinking covid is just the flu?

I think a more valid point rather than the usual "its not a flu" response would be to acknowledge the core of that post, which is to say that year upon year, our health service is a sh1t show and if, as a supposedly first world country, it is overwhelmed year after year after year WITHOUT Covid this should have been sorted years ago
With a hundred and odd people in ICU in a country with a pop of 4.9 million and the whole nation is in crisis economically......big questions need to be asked of our "health service"

Wolf359f

niallo27 wrote: »

Oh will you stop with this bull****, it like the default argument here when they have nothing to come back with, oh you think it's just the flu and actually what difference does it make what hospitals were overwhelmed with, be it the flu or pineapples falling on your head,nobody gave a flying **** back then but now its the end of the world scenario.

Because it's a novel coronavirus, more infectious than the flu, more deadly than the flu.
Just because we have had patients on trollies year after year for various ailments (some infections others not) it means that we should be ok having hospitals overwhelmed with covid? Cancel outpatient appointments and elective surgery?

A hospital can be overwhelmed due to budget cuts etc... But outpatient appointments and elective surgery still went on. What we have currently in out hospitals with covid is unprecedented. You're making out like Ireland is the only country in the world effected by covid. Counties with far better hospital resources are in much worse shape than us, that should tell you just how serious covid is on the health system.
So yes, when someone says we had a few hospitals overwhelmed before in the past because of the flu, I take issue with that.

User1998

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

How will non-compliance 'end' restrictions? People can visit each others houses I suppose but pubs, restaurants, cinemas etc. will stay closed as long as the government says so.

If even 50% of businesses decided to open their doors tomorrow there would be nothing the government could do. It seems to be already happening across Europe but RTE won’t show us that

Turtwig

Turtwig wrote: »

No medication or treatment is 100%. Vaccine or otherwise. That's just bullsh1t. Did O'Neill really say that?

That's such an irresponsible statement if he did.

He said they were 100% effective against severe disease and death and that's accurate. No one in the Moderna or AstraZeneca trials was hospitalised or died after their second dose. I think Pfizer had one severe case but they recovered.

Turtwig

Atlantic Dawn wrote: »

Yes you will probably get an additional large number of people brought in to the vulnerable group from obesity and generally not looking after themselves as a result of the lockdowns.

Highly unlikely. Obesity may be a risk factor. However that correlation may be down to obesity being associated other comorbidities such as cardiovascular disease or diabetes. To become clinically vulnerable an individual who was previously in good shape with no underlying health conditions would have to develop something like heart failure in less than year. I doubt very many people would be that unlucky.

h2005

User1998 wrote: »

If even 50% of businesses decided to open their doors tomorrow there would be nothing the government could do. It seems to be already happening across Europe but RTE won’t show us that

Where’s it happening? Genuine question, I haven’t heard of this.

Turtwig

Hardyn wrote: »

He said they were 100% effective against severe disease and death and that's accurate. No one in the Moderna or AstraZeneca trials was hospitalised or died after their second dose. I think Pfizer had one severe case but they recovered.

That's accurate based on the scope of the trials. That doesn't mean you publicly state it. Certainly not in the manner he did it. Put this another way, would a vaccine manufacturer advertise their vaccine prevents severe illness 100%?

No medicine of any kind works on the population level in that way. I get he was trying to reassure people if they had concerns about the lower efficacy. It's a very risky remark to make. A few high profile documented cases of severe illness in vaccinated people and he's in trouble.

Arghus

niallo27 wrote: »

Oh will you stop with this bull****, it like the default argument here when they have nothing to come back with, oh you think it's just the flu and actually what difference does it make what hospitals were overwhelmed with, be it the flu or pineapples falling on your head,nobody gave a flying **** back then but now its the end of the world scenario.

The point he's making is that, yes, overcrowding - particularly in Winter - is a common feature of Irish hospitals, but that it doesn't follow to say there was overcrowding during year x or y so therefore overcrowding is nothing to get worried about in and of itself.

Previous examples of overcrowding occurred when life carried on as normal. Even with level three restrictions for a period of three weeks over December it was extremely touch and go whether the hospital system would still function. We had to cancel rakes of procedures, appointments etc and we just about made it. If we had stayed at that level of spread in the community for even a week to two weeks longer than we did we would have been overwhelmed. Not just overcrowded like other years.

The risk of a quickly overwhelmed health system posed by Covid relative to other common respiratory illnesses is many magnitudes greater- and that's even with restrictions - can you imagine what it would be like without?

User1998

h2005 wrote: »

Where’s it happening? Genuine question, I haven’t heard of this.

Gyms in the uk, restaurants in Italy. Government had to give in and let them open. I’m not saying that its right or its the way out of all of this, but I’m just saying it is happening

Arghus

User1998 wrote: »

Gyms in the uk, restaurants in Italy. Government had to give in and let them open. I’m not saying that its right or its the way out of all of this, but I’m just saying it is happening

Are gyms open in the UK?

spookwoman

User1998 wrote: »

Gyms in the uk, restaurants in Italy. Government had to give in and let them open. I’m not saying that its right or its the way out of all of this, but I’m just saying it is happening

Gyms are not open in the UK. Nothing to say they had to give in and let them open in Italy, there was places remaining open even when they were not supposed to but that doesn't mean the government gave in when they eased restricts for most parts of Italy.

User1998

My point was that even if 50% of businesses decided to open their doors tomorrow there would be very little the government could do

quokula

User1998 wrote: »

My point was that even if 50% of businesses decided to open their doors tomorrow there would be very little the government could do

If 50% of the whole population decided to suddenly do literally anything that was illegal and immoral on any given day there’s nothing the government could do. Fortunately in the real world the vast majority of people are decent and law abiding.

Turtwig

Turtwig wrote: »

That's accurate based on the scope of the trials. That doesn't mean you publicly state it. Certainly not in the manner he did it. Put this another way, would a vaccine manufacturer advertise their vaccine prevents severe illness 100%?

No medicine of any kind works on the population level in that way. I get he was trying to reassure people if they had concerns about the lower efficacy. It's a very risky remark to make. A few high profile documented cases of severe illness in vaccinated people and he's in trouble.

Hardly. He was just repeating what the trials showed. I think people are smart enough to understand that. He's far from the first to say it anyway so if he gets in trouble he won't be alone.

spookwoman

User1998 wrote: »

My point was that even if 50% of businesses decided to open their doors tomorrow there would be very little the government could do

Government might not be able to do much except tighten and impose heavier fines for business, but businesses could be closed down due to breach of restrictions, Health and Safety etc by bringing them to court.
Do businesses want to have legal costs on top of existing financial issues?

patnor1011

Arghus wrote: »

The point he's making is that, yes, overcrowding - particularly in Winter - is a common feature of Irish hospitals, but that it doesn't follow to say there was overcrowding during year x or y so therefore overcrowding is nothing to get worried about in and of itself.

Previous examples of overcrowding occurred when life carried on as normal. Even with level three restrictions for a period of three weeks over December it was extremely touch and go whether the hospital system would still function. We had to cancel rakes of procedures, appointments etc and we just about made it. If we had stayed at that level of spread in the community for even a week to two weeks longer than we did we would have been overwhelmed. Not just overcrowded like other years.

The risk of a quickly overwhelmed health system posed by Covid relative to other common respiratory illnesses is many magnitudes greater- and that's even with restrictions - can you imagine what it would be like without?

There are countries or states which did not impose restrictions or lockdowns and their health system did not collapse.
A recent analysis of public data showed that the states that imposed a lockdown over the fall and winter because of the Wuhan coronavirus pandemic have 5.6 percent more deaths per million compared to the 11 states that did not impose a lockdown.

The states that did not impose a lockdown were Texas, Florida, North Dakota, South Dakota, Arkansas, Iowa, South Carolina, Georgia, Wyoming, Nebraska and Utah.

U.K.-based website Lockdown Sceptics quickly pointed out that the models predicting massive death tolls on states not imposing a lockdown because of the pandemic proved to be wrong.

The website was apparently referring to a model published last year by Neil Ferguson of Imperial College of London, which predicted 2.2 million American deaths from COVID-19. White House coronavirus advisers, Dr. Anthony Fauci and Dr. Deborah Birx, presented Ferguson’s model to then President Donald Trump.

This prompted Trump to release a coronavirus guideline, also known as “15 Days to Slow the Spread,” which encouraged school operations to stop and restaurants, bars and other outdoor venues where groups of people congregate to close.

“If the doomsday models are correct, why don’t the bars for those (11) states clearly stand out from the bars of the lockdown states?” the website asked. “Furthermore, why are the top five states for COVID deaths lockdown states?”

Lockdown Sceptics was referring to the top five states with the most number of deaths per million – New Jersey, New York Massachusetts, Mississippi and Rhode Island. Those states have imposed winter lockdown.

“If anything this suggests lockdown made things worse. At any rate, there’s no sign it helped,” the website said.

The website also challenged lockdown proponents to put their models to test in the real world.

“Time to put up or shut up. Either their models can reproduce the outcomes of real states which don’t lock down, or they can’t and need to be fundamentally revised. No more hiding behind counterfactuals of ‘it would have happened but for lockdown.’ The facts are here and waiting to be explained.”

The same trend seemed to be happening outside the United States, as well.

Lockdown Sceptics noted the London Telegraph‘s Alexander Fiske-Harrison reported that the European countries “with the strictest lockdowns have come out no better.” (Related: Data audit shows devastating effects of UK lockdown.)

The WND also reported that a Canadian infectious-disease specialist who initially supported the lockdowns in response to the coronavirus has changed his mind, concluding in his peer-reviewed study that the harm is 10 times worse than the benefits.

prunudo

Had a dream last night was at a gig singing my heart out to a band, woke up in a happy mood, amazing what can trigger the mind.

On the flip side glad I didn't read this thread before I went to bed last night! Lockdown fatigue both on here and in the real world seem to be an all time high and I'd say compliance is waining with each day. Personally reckon a lot of people will give it till March 5th and then there could be a big change in how the public behave.

Doctor Jimbob

I think the most frustrating thing about all this is that the government seem to be relying on the majority complying with harsh restrictions rather than properly clamping down on people causing problems. We're almost a year into this and we still don't have any real control on travel. We spent the first 6 months or so just relying on people to sign a form saying they'll be good and behave themselves. We brought in fines a few months ago but they were low enough that people were just paying them and going on holiday anyway. Meanwhile, those of us obeying the restrictions couldn't go more than 5km from our homes. I know there are bigger fines coming in but it's a bit fecking late. I can't imagine how it must feel for people who are out of work seeing others be able to do what they like with no consequences.

We loosened restrictions over Christmas despite it obviously being a bad idea with the rising numbers but that still wasn't enough for some people, plenty paid no heed to the 3 households idea and threw big parties. What happened to them? Feck all.

It's so, so frustrating that we're seemingly stuck with longer restrictions because the ones we have aren't being enforced. I talk about getting fed up and breaking the restrictions. I'm probably not really going to do it. Not yet anyway. I'd feel too guilty over it. But sometimes it's really hard to see the point in sticking with it when they just seem to keep getting extended indefinitely. I know people will say that breaking the restrictions is just going to make them last longer, but that seems to be happening regardless of what I or anyone else does.

JRant

Wolf359f wrote: »

It was a peak of 6k, not 6k sustained. That's not realistic to assume they can repeat that again.
In Autumn, I may be wrong, but some hospitals had to cancel elective surgery, so again it's unsustainable.

Obviously the difference now is the vaccination program and its impact it will have on reducing deaths and admissions and controlling spread. I think we need real data on this and I would hope that's what's being collected in the background now. This should play a key path in easing restrictions.

It would be nice to get some clarity from the government and no ****ing leaks. I'm sick of the leaks at this stage.
If they just said, were focusing on schools for March and examining the data from the vaccination effects, which will give us a better idea of how to safely and effectively reopen after we deal with schools, it may give people some hope.

There's a very real possibility that NPHET will want to see results of the vaccine here over a number of months before making any firm decisions. We may also run into a situation where numbers will be very low during the summer months and they may claim this could be due to seasonality and be extremely cautious in Autumn/Winter. No matter what way we look at this 2021 is going to be an absolute slog.

is_that_so

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

I think the most frustrating thing about all this is that the government seem to be relying on the majority complying with harsh restrictions rather than properly clamping down on people causing problems. We're almost a year into this and we still don't have any real control on travel. We spent the first 6 months or so just relying on people to sign a form saying they'll be good and behave themselves. We brought in fines a few months ago but they were low enough that people were just paying them and going on holiday anyway. Meanwhile, those of us obeying the restrictions couldn't go more than 5km from our homes. I know there are bigger fines coming in but it's a bit fecking late. I can't imagine how it must feel for people who are out of work seeing others be able to do what they like with no consequences.

We loosened restrictions over Christmas despite it obviously being a bad idea with the rising numbers but that still wasn't enough for some people, plenty paid no heed to the 3 households idea and threw big parties. What happened to them? Feck all.

It's so, so frustrating that we're seemingly stuck with longer restrictions because the ones we have aren't being enforced. I talk about getting fed up and breaking the restrictions. I'm probably not really going to do it. Not yet anyway. I'd feel too guilty over it. But sometimes it's really hard to see the point in sticking with it when they just seem to keep getting extended indefinitely. I know people will say that breaking the restrictions is just going to make them last longer, but that seems to be happening regardless of what I or anyone else does.

There is no simple answer to all of this. Travel inwards is not really the problem even if Christmas magnified it. It has always been socialising and community spread. Most of what you're demanding here is beyond any laws we have, never mind far closer to what the Chinese did. It's also a surefire way to lose support of the public.