Covid 19 Part XXXII-215,743 ROI (4,137 deaths)111,166 NI (2,036 deaths)(22/02)Read OP

igCorcaigh

zuutroy wrote: »

From hearing CdeG on the radio earlier it looks as though the suppression rate even with the current restrictions due to the B117 being dominant isn't great. I guess opening anything more than the schools and construction will certainly drive the R-number above 1 and we're then on an express road back to 2000 in hospital pretty quickly given the high baseline we'd be starting from.
People are understandably angry but we are where we are now, and hands are essentially tied until there are a couple of million vaccines in arms unfortunately.

I feel the same way.

The Christmas opening was a disastrous decision with regards to the timing, and so obviously wrong even at the time.

But given where we are now, I see no other alternative until the vaccines are administered enough to protect the health system.

I think some leeway could be given for some non essential retail (which becomes essential after a certain period of time) and travel beyond 5km.

I can understand why the government has to be very cautious.

Happydays2020

jackboy wrote: »

It hasn’t been successful. It has been a failure. Economy destroyed, thousands dead, so many other lives destroyed. This is not success.

We will just go round in circles as we have different starting points.

You think zero Covid is workable (including with the very specific circumstances of the border and our deep relationship with the EU27 not to mention our reliance on trade) while I do not (and indeed neither do NPHET).

Therefore we will have different benchmarks for success. Mistakes have been made especially around Christmas and mixed messaging throughout but relative to other EU27 and UK + US etc we have done reasonably well.

Wolf359f

zuutroy wrote: »

From hearing CdeG on the radio earlier it looks as though the suppression rate even with the current restrictions due to the B117 being dominant isn't great. I guess opening anything more than the schools and construction will certainly drive the R-number above 1 and we're then on an express road back to 2000 in hospital pretty quickly given the high baseline we'd be starting from.
People are understandably angry but we are where we are now, and hands are essentially tied until there are a couple of million vaccines in arms unfortunately.

Sounds like a valid reason for the slow reopening, shame it's explained by him and not the government.
If they know how it spread within schools last year and they plan on reopening schools with the new variant and monitoring and comparing the R0 to the same time last year and then see how much increases etc... Then base the reopening on that data.

If that or something like that is the plan, it needs to be explained to the public and not this **** of 9 more weeks of restrictions, followed by the next day being told nothing is set in stone etc...

Happydays2020

igCorcaigh wrote: »

I feel the same way.

The Christmas opening was a disastrous decision with regards to the timing, and so obviously wrong even at the time.

But given where we are now, I see no other alternative until the vaccines are administered enough to protect the health system.

I think some leeway could be given for some non essential retail (which becomes essential after a certain period of time) and travel beyond 5km.

I can understand why the government has to be very cautious.

If people had followed the restrictions announced on 22 December then a lot of the damage could have been minimised. There were still big parties around New Years.

DeanAustin

jackboy wrote: »

It hasn’t been successful. It has been a failure. Economy destroyed, thousands dead, so many other lives destroyed. This is not success.

Is there any such thing as success when dealing with this disease in Western Europe though?

igCorcaigh

Happydays2020 wrote: »

If people had followed the restrictions announced on 22 December then a lot of the damage could have been minimised. There were still big parties around New Years.

That may be so, but policy should not be driven by things that cannot be controlled.

The opening of hospitality in the run up to Christmas gave people the green light to socialise, resulting in widespread transmission at the very time that people went home to meet elderly relatives on December 25.

WoollyRedHat

If data emerges that vaccines such as Janssen and AZ etc. reduce transmission then I hope the EMA will update guidance accordingly and we prioritize getting key groups vaccinated as quickly as possible.

mloc123

Cluedo Monopoly wrote: »

I would like to see the data on that. There were 3 recovered from the water in Galway last week and 1 missing.

Anecdotaly I have seen a pretty big increase in people going missing being reported on local area Facebook etc..

Doctor Jimbob

zuutroy wrote: »

From hearing CdeG on the radio earlier it looks as though the suppression rate even with the current restrictions due to the B117 being dominant isn't great. I guess opening anything more than the schools and construction will certainly drive the R-number above 1 and we're then on an express road back to 2000 in hospital pretty quickly given the high baseline we'd be starting from.
People are understandably angry but we are where we are now, and hands are essentially tied until there are a couple of million vaccines in arms unfortunately.

If this new variant is so concerning then why are even considering packing 30 kids into small rooms in a couple of weeks time? The inconsistency in the narrative is very frustrating.

Oranage2

jackboy wrote: »

It hasn’t been successful. It has been a failure. Economy destroyed, thousands dead, so many other lives destroyed. This is not success.

Have to agree with this. People have said stop border crossing but others cried saying it was impossible, a year later there are fines for this.

People said close the schools, they've closed and there was no plan how to send them back or online even though they've had a year to plan for this.

People said have a quarantine for passangers, the ney sayers cried saying it was impossible and now they're doing it.

It has been a massive failure, everything done a year too late

brookers

NeuralNetwork wrote: »

I certainly won’t be voting for either of them ever again after this. The fact they did a better job than Donald Trump or Boris Johnson is hardly a high bar.

The post Christmas period has just been an unmitigated disaster and if we end up with the Brazilian variant becoming established because of lack of testing at airports I think there needs to be resignations.

Communication is poor, confusing and spin-laden and I’m still seeing a lack of clarity on the vaccine programme.

I’m finding myself planning emigration tbh - not everywhere is in the mess that here, the U.K. or the US is in.

You would have to laugh when you hear about a NI poll....Irish people in their thousands have been vaccinated in the UK.

Nermal

zuutroy wrote: »

People are understandably angry but we are where we are now, and hands are essentially tied until there are a couple of million vaccines in arms unfortunately.

The only thing tying our hands is a mental model that won't accept more deaths as an acceptable price for more freedom and less economic damage.

harr

We just can’t function with level 5 till mid summer, non essential retail will need to be opened for one . People will need clothing the likes . Gyms maybe and certainly outdoor dining.
Expecting people to live in level 5 for 7 months is going to be a big ask . People need a little bit of light at the end of the tunnel, up to the government now to get the finger out and come up a plan to gradually open up the country and stop all these leaks and blanket statements.
Only a few weeks Leo was spouting about not having a normal Christmas this year .
Leo and MM trying to outdo one another with the scare tactics

igCorcaigh

Nermal wrote: »

The only thing tying our hands is a mental model that won't accept more deaths as an acceptable price for more freedom and less economic damage.

I'd be in favour of that mental model to be honest.

Benimar

843 swabs on 15,122 tests 5.57% positivity

TonyMaloney

Bad again

https://twitter.com/COVID19DataIE/status/1363150170708443141?s=19

Bubbaclaus

TonyMaloney wrote: »

Bad again

https://twitter.com/COVID19DataIE/status/1363150170708443141?s=19

16% reduction compared to same day last week, the trend is going in the right direction all the time.

MerlinSouthDub

TonyMaloney wrote: »

Bad again

https://twitter.com/COVID19DataIE/status/1363150170708443141?s=19

Nearly 20% fewer swabs than last Saturday, that's not bad!

Turtwig

TonyMaloney wrote: »

Bad again

https://twitter.com/COVID19DataIE/status/1363150170708443141?s=19

Ah I wouldn't go as far as saying it's bad.

Happydays2020

TonyMaloney wrote: »

Bad again

https://twitter.com/COVID19DataIE/status/1363150170708443141?s=19

Numbers still down for the week and positivity rate below 6% for two days running.

Turtwig

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

Nearly 20% fewer swabs than last Saturday, that's not bad!

It's the positivity Tony is referring to.

wadacrack

Benimar wrote: »

843 swabs on 15,122 tests 5.57% positivity

Ok at best, the rate of decline this week considering the restrictions at the moment is disappointing

igCorcaigh

The trend is still good, but achingly slow given the L5 restrictions.

Bubbaclaus

Turtwig wrote: »

It's the positivity Tony is referring to.

The positivity is also down compared to same day last week.

manofwisdom

TonyMaloney wrote: »

Bad again

https://twitter.com/COVID19DataIE/status/1363150170708443141?s=19

Bad? We had 1063 positive swabs last Saturday.

MerlinSouthDub

Turtwig wrote: »

It's the positivity Tony is referring to.

Positivity rate can stay where it is and it doesn't matter. What matters is that case numbers fall.

brookers

TonyMaloney wrote: »

Bad again

https://twitter.com/COVID19DataIE/status/1363150170708443141?s=19

Im not surprised. To be expected. As posted recently there is huge amount of apathy out there. People young and old are taking chances, no hand sanitising, going into shops that seem much busier. More qs at coffee stations, more people out getting petrol etc, all touching surfaces that are not sanitised and then touching their faces. To be honest I can't see the schools opening, if they do, they will be shutting down again, even before Christmas, some principals were saying that there were far more outbreaks than normal, they struggled to get their message across and were chastised over it. I also notice in work people who have had Covid couldn't give a rats about wearing their mask now.

jams100

SusieBlue wrote: »

Everything I have seen and heard over the last few days leads me to the conclusion that they’re going to do a copy and paste job on last years Roadmap to easing of restrictions and we’ll have the same again this year.

The only difference is that last year we only went into lockdown in mid March, this year we have been in level 5 since October with a brief 3 week break at Christmas.

So if it follows the same pattern it looks like the first week of June for non essential retail, the end of June for hairdressers and gyms, and the end of July/start of August for restaurants.
Before obviously going back into level 5 at the start of October to ‘break the circuit’ and save Christmas so we can make some ‘meaningful’ memories with our families.
MM said the end of the second quarter for personal services and mid summer for hospitality, so that lines up with last years plan.

I can’t believe that a whole year later we are in an even worse position with so much uncertainty even though we are already vaccinating people.
I can’t believe that after all we have learned about this virus, we know so much more than we did last year, we are still making stupid mistakes like letting god knows who into the country to do as they please while we risk breaking the law and being fined if we dare venture more than 5k from our homes.
I can’t believe they have the audacity to say that forcing quarantine on incoming travellers is too harsh a measure and would be impossible to police, while they have 5 MILLION people (with half a million of those out of work) practically under house arrest for the majority of the last year.

We will very likely spent more of this year in full lockdown than we did in 2020, and that to me indicates utter failure on behalf of the government.
They are an incompetent bunch of self serving headless chickens who only care about covering their own arses.

The manner in which this information is being delivered to the public is nothing short of scandalous, the repeated leaks are completely unprofessional and downright disrespectful.
Announcing another 9 weeks of lockdown at 10pm at night via a tabloid rag shows how insensitive and irresponsible they are.
If they had any consideration or compassion for the fact that so many people are at the end of their tether and hanging on by a thread, they would never deliver serious news like that in such a careless way.
It’s infuriating that they think their actions, particularly over the last week, have been an acceptable way for any government to conduct themselves.
They are a complete and utter disgrace.

Well done this post pretty much sums up this entire thread over the past year.

The solution to avoiding another lockdown is to stay in an endless lockdown.

At least when we first went into and came out of lockdown it was evidenced based (e.g outdoors is pretty safe) now everyone is just afraid to make a decision in case the twitter mob and zero covids freak out. I'm still to see a piece of evidence that golf courses (not clubhouses) are unsafe. Anyway looks like the golf club I'm a member of is going to close down, from what I've heard only 33% have paid membership fees so there is another business thats probably going to go which is sad because I'll repeat there is no evidence of any spread on golf courses.

Oranage2

At this rate we'll have under 100 cases by summer. I think it's bad, this level of lockdown is the level needed to keep the R level stable. It seems the level of planning from the government is them on their knees praying that the vaccine is a success and that a private company offers to distribute it at a massive cost

UrbanFret

The reality is that the lockdown is in name only. everywhere is teeming with people. the numbers will not drop below 500 until we are vaccinating a couple of hundred thousand a week. the north will be vaccinated in 2 months time, What then?