Covid 19 Part XXXII-215,743 ROI (4,137 deaths)111,166 NI (2,036 deaths)(22/02)Read OP

Turtwig

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

Positivity rate can stay where it is and it doesn't matter. What matters is that case numbers fall.

No. Both metrics very much matter. If your cases were close to zero and positivity stubbornly high then that would indicate your case number is unreliable and there is a high incidence of undetected community spread.

Ficheall

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

Positivity rate can stay where it is and it doesn't matter. What matters is that case numbers fall.

This was wrong the last time you posted it, and it's still wrong.

niallo27

UrbanFret wrote: »

The reality is that the lockdown is in name only. everywhere is teeming with people. the numbers will not drop below 500 until we are vaccinating a couple of hundred thousand a week. the north will be vaccinated in 2 months time, What then?

What you mean by teeming with people, where are they. Where is there to go. Everywhere is shut.

wadacrack

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

Positivity rate can stay where it is and it doesn't matter. What matters is that case numbers fall.

Positivity rate is an important metric. 5% means we are missing alot of cases.

MerlinSouthDub

Turtwig wrote: »

No. Both metrics very much matter. If your cases were close to zero and positivity stubbornly high then that would indicate your case number is unreliable and there is a high incidence of undetected community spread.

There is plenty of surplus test capacity at the moment, so no reason to believe our case numbers aren't a true reflection. What's happening is that we are doing less mass testing at the moment, and the close contact positivity rate is high (because close contacts are nearly all household contacts). Both of these factors mean the positivity rate is higher.

mloc123

igCorcaigh wrote: »

The trend is still good, but achingly slow given the L5 restrictions.

Makes you wonder how and where people are still picking it up... 7 weeks into level 5

Ficheall

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

There is plenty of surplus test capacity at the moment, so no reason to believe our case numbers aren't a true reflection. What's happening is that we are doing less mass testing at the moment, and the close contact positivity rate is high (because close contacts are nearly all household contacts). Both of these factors mean the positivity rate is higher.

Ah, I see where we differ. You have a lot more faith in the tracing.

igCorcaigh

mloc123 wrote: »

Makes you wonder how and where people are still picking it up... 7 weeks into level 5

I don't know, but are more workplaces open now compared to the first lockdown last year?

UrbanFret

niallo27 wrote: »

What you mean by teeming with people, where are they. Where is there to go. Everywhere is shut.

supermarkets, carparks of supermarkets seem a great place for a natter. parks , walks, theres even a walk beside me which is not completed or hasnt been officialy opened yet. there was that many people using it they've had to mound up the soil at the entrance and put up signage in an attempt to stop people acessing it.
The roads are thick with cars. 5km restriction is purely cosmetic.

As regards the PCR test, I had two recently. First one was a day after reporting fairly mild symptoms of respiratory infection and exhaustion to doctor. Negative, so he put me on a week of amoxicillin for presumed bacterial infection. No effect, in fact I got abruptly much worse towards end of antibiotic with the true flu-type full on fever and coughing etc, sent this time by taxi for another nasal swab as I was too unwell to drive or walk, again negative. Acutely duck with lowish oxygen (90-94%) etc for a further few days. Everything tasted like poison so all I could take was tea as a few nibbles. Lost a load of weight and no harm too. Then all symptoms faded away and I'm pretty much back to old self now. Had taken every measure not to get anything at all, and only interaction I had was in supermarket and in and out through common areas of apartment block where people don't always wear masks. Haven't a clue what I had, but had to treat myself as a potential false negative and stay locked inside for over two weeks.

Bubbaclaus

Does anyone have up to date data on nursing home outbreaks? Hopefully the data shows a sharp decrease, given at least half of them already have a second dose of Pfizer.

gw80

UrbanFret wrote: »

The reality is that the lockdown is in name only. everywhere is teeming with people. the numbers will not drop below 500 until we are vaccinating a couple of hundred thousand a week. the north will be vaccinated in 2 months time, What then?

"What then",
We are going to see a lot of yellow reg campervans and caravans enjoying the beaches and other scenic areas that we are not allowed to visit.

MerlinSouthDub

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Purely because we don't get Sundays swabs until Monday, comparing what we do have so far.

Monday to Saturday last week - 5498 swabs
Monday to Saturday this week - 4008 swabs

28% lower. A good week!

UrbanFret

UrbanFret wrote: »

supermarkets, carparks of supermarkets seem a great place for a natter. parks , walks, theres even a walk beside me which is not completed or hasnt been officialy opened yet. there was that many people using it they've had to mound up the soil at the entrance and put up signage in an attempt to stop people acessing it.
The roads are thick with cars. 5km restriction is purely cosmetic.

Churchtown, Dublin, is in my catchment area, and when I got there to shop there are lots of gathering gs of people huddled together outside Number of takeaway coffee shops. All they are lacking is official seating, but a wall serves adequately. Same in my immediate area, lots and lots of folk lined on a wall by a riverside park opposite a takeaway coffee shop. I don't know if these are all from same household etc, which would be ok, but some are sitting extremely close together.

UrbanFret

gw80 wrote: »

"What then",
We are going to see a lot of yellow reg campervans and caravans enjoying the beaches and other scenic areas that we are not allowed to visit.

You are absolutely correct. Anyway I expect it will be over in 6 months either way.

blackcard

Prince Charles visited his father in hospital. Surely not in accordance with current protocols? Interesting to see will there be a backlash

MerlinSouthDub

wadacrack wrote: »

Positivity rate is an important metric. 5% means we are missing alot of cases.

No reason to think we are the moment. If case numbers were going up, and the positivity rate was staying the same, I'd be concerned, but that's not what we are seeing.

Benimar

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

28% lower. A good week!

Those numbers are incorrect. Its 5,498 last week v 4,851 this week (he didn't include todays swabs). Its 11.8% lower.

blackcard

blackcard wrote: »

Prince Charles visited his father in hospital. Surely not in accordance with current protocols? Interesting to see will there be a backlash

Possibly end of life scenario?

hynesie08

UrbanFret wrote: »

The reality is that the lockdown is in name only. everywhere is teeming with people. the numbers will not drop below 500 until we are vaccinating a couple of hundred thousand a week. the north will be vaccinated in 2 months time, What then?

How will the North be vaccinated in 2 months when they are waiting 12 weeks between shots and they are only planning on half having their fist shot by the end of March?

stephenjmcd

Reposting as made a small error when adding them up there.

It's actually

Monday to Saturday last week - 5605 swabs
Monday to Saturday this week - 4851 swabs

stephenjmcd

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

28% lower. A good week!

Skipped a day there by mistake when adding them deleted post

igCorcaigh

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Possibly end of life scenario?

Didn't apply to anyone else, did it?
(honest question)

Ficheall

Benimar wrote: »

Those numbers are incorrect. Its 5,498 last week v 4,851 this week (he didn't include todays swabs). Its 11.8% lower.

And is it ~8.5% fewer tests conducted? Slowly, slowly, but progress..

Icantthinkof1

igCorcaigh wrote: »

Didn't apply to anyone else, did it?
(honest question)

People have been allowed into hospitals to say goodbye to their dying loved ones

igCorcaigh

Icantthinkof1 wrote: »

People have been allowed into hospitals to say goodbye to their dying loved ones

Thanks. I didn't know that.
Good.

iamwhoiam

igCorcaigh wrote: »

Didn't apply to anyone else, did it?
(honest question)

Yea it did . Two people I know were allowed in to visit a dying relative . Full PPE and they could be in his room with him thankfully

Jim_Hodge

UrbanFret wrote: »

supermarkets, carparks of supermarkets seem a great place for a natter. parks , walks, theres even a walk beside me which is not completed or hasnt been officialy opened yet. there was that many people using it they've had to mound up the soil at the entrance and put up signage in an attempt to stop people acessing it.
The roads are thick with cars. 5km restriction is purely cosmetic.

Must be particular places. Supermarket here was nearly empty. We shopped and had no queue at the checkout. The carpark wasn't 15% full. Plenty are walking around here but the vast majority are within their 5km. I've seem a few people stop to talk but they all were masked and kept their distance. If people are keeping near to home you would expect a bit of a gathering in local parks.

stephenjmcd

Benimar wrote: »

Those numbers are incorrect. Its 5,498 last week v 4,851 this week (he didn't include todays swabs). Its 11.8% lower.

I miss added in the original post, deleted and corrected but I've 5605 for the week before unless that's wrong?
4851 for this week alright

Oranage2

stephenjmcd wrote: »

I miss added but I've 5605 for the week before unless that's wrong?

You tried to skewer the figures and failed.