Covid 19 Part XXXII-215,743 ROI (4,137 deaths)111,166 NI (2,036 deaths)(22/02)Read OP

NeuralNetwork

If we had just let it run riot - very large numbers of deaths probably wouldn’t be beyond the realms of possibly.

A few days over Christmas caused absolute mayhem. Imagine if we had just continued business as usual for months? The country would have collapsed due to lack of healthcare and people being sick all over the place causing infrastructure management to become impossible and then you’d have had economic collapse.

It has been badly handled in a lot of ways, particularly since Christmas, but I think we are in a rather dire situation. There isn’t any simple and easy solution to this.

I’m not saying this is a defence of the government. I’m very frustrated with many of the decisions taken and the lack of decisive action in public policy, but it’s still an extremely difficult problem to solve and there are only least worst options.

Jizique

Ficheall wrote: »

4000 deaths despite "the longest and strictest restrictions in the world"..

What % of those were >90 or with underlying issues?

Ohmeha

National deaths/ICU/hospitalisation numbers for the past 4 weeks

Average deaths showing clear reductions for 2 weeks, ICUs consistently dropping ~10% range per 7 days, hospitalisations consistently dropping ~20% range per 7 days

Day Month Date Year Deaths Weekly 7 Day Av 7 Day % ICU Inc/Dec 7 Day Av 7 Day % Hosp Inc/Dec 7 Day Av 7 Day %
Sunday January 24th 2021 23 365 52.14 36.19% 218 1 211.43 21.81% 1,931 39 1,934.86 8.66%
Monday January 25th 2021 7 364 52.00 35.82% 219 1 214.14 18.12% 1,905 -26 1,924.86 4.79%
Tuesday January 26th 2021 90 361 51.57 14.60% 216 -3 216.14 15.23% 1,750 -155 1,896.43 1.22%
Wednesday January 27th 2021 54 354 50.57 13.10% 217 1 217.14 12.51% 1,670 -80 1,860.29 -1.85%
Thursday January 28th 2021 47 350 50.00 4.17% 216 -1 217.43 9.03% 1,567 -103 1,806.57 -5.78%
Friday January 29th 2021 48 346 49.43 2.37% 211 -5 216.29 5.80% 1,518 -49 1,747.57 -9.41%
Saturday January 30th 2021 79 348 49.71 -1.97% 211 0 215.43 3.50% 1,492 -26 1,690.43 -12.61%
Sunday January 31st 2021 15 340 48.57 -6.85% 211 0 214.43 1.42% 1,516 24 1,631.14 -15.70%
Monday February 1st 2021 10 343 49.00 -5.77% 207 -4 212.71 -0.67% 1,436 -80 1,564.14 -18.74%
Tuesday February 2nd 2021 101 354 50.57 -1.94% 207 0 211.43 -2.18% 1,388 -48 1,512.43 -20.25%
Wednesday February 3rd 2021 94 394 56.29 11.30% 203 -4 209.43 -3.55% 1,334 -54 1,464.43 -21.28%
Thursday February 4th 2021 75 422 60.29 20.57% 188 -15 205.43 -5.52% 1,284 -50 1,424.00 -21.18%
Friday February 5th 2021 35 409 58.43 18.21% 181 -7 201.14 -7.00% 1,221 -63 1,381.57 -20.94%
Saturday February 6th 2021 55 385 55.00 10.63% 177 -4 196.29 -8.89% 1,177 -44 1,336.57 -20.93%
Sunday February 7th 2021 12 382 54.57 12.35% 178 1 191.57 -10.66% 1,204 27 1,292.00 -20.79%
Monday February 8th 2021 6 378 54.00 10.20% 176 -2 187.14 -12.02% 1,211 7 1,259.86 -19.45%
Tuesday February 9th 2021 68 345 49.29 -2.54% 182 6 183.57 -13.18% 1,104 -107 1,219.29 -19.38%
Wednesday February 10th 2021 54 305 43.57 -22.59% 173 -9 179.29 -14.39% 1,032 -72 1,176.14 -19.69%
Thursday February 11th 2021 52 282 40.29 -33.18% 172 -1 177.00 -13.84% 984 -48 1,133.29 -20.42%
Friday February 12th 2021 23 270 38.57 -33.99% 173 1 175.86 -12.57% 959 -25 1,095.86 -20.68%
Saturday February 13th 2021 66 281 40.14 -27.01% 171 -2 175.00 -10.84% 898 -61 1,056.00 -20.99%
Sunday February 14th 2021 17 286 40.86 -25.13% 160 -11 172.43 -9.99% 899 1 1,012.43 -21.64%
Monday February 15th 2021 0 280 40.00 -25.93% 157 -3 169.71 -9.31% 916 17 970.29 -22.98%
Tuesday February 16th 2021 33 245 35.00 -28.99% 159 2 166.43 -9.34% 861 -55 935.57 -23.27%
Wednesday February 17th 2021 57 248 35.43 -18.69% 154 -5 163.71 -8.69% 831 -30 906.86 -22.90%
Thursday February 18th 2021 47 243 34.71 -13.83% 151 -3 160.71 -9.20% 771 -60 876.43 -22.66%
Friday February 19th 2021 28 248 35.43 -8.15% 151 0 157.57 -10.40% 754 -17 847.14 -22.70%
Saturday February 20th 2021 26 208 29.71 -25.98% 149 -2 154.43 -11.76% 719 -35 821.57 -22.20%

Ficheall

Jizique wrote: »

What % of those were >90 or with underlying issues?

Did they remake "Logan's Run" last year or something?

zuutroy

Dubit11 wrote: »

Huge numbers again i see. The amount of people out and about not bothering to adhere to the rules is frightening. I can see us above 2000 a day by the start of March tbh.

Yes, cases are going to almost triple in the next week. Savvy analysis there.

is_that_so

Hospital cases at 719 and ICU has gone below 150 - at 149. A sub 100 ICU number is not too far away!

Ohmeha

National new cases/averages/percentage averages for the past 4 weeks

Percentage reductions for all 5/7/14 averages reductions all slowing indicating impact of the dominant Kent strain which is not good news for anyone getting their hopes up for significant reopening in April/May

Day Month Date Year ROI Cases Weekly 5 Day Av 5 Day % 7 Day Av 7 Day % 14 Day Av 14 Day %
Sunday January 24th 2021 1,378 14,877 2,151.00 -22.04% 2,125.29 -40.99% 2,863.50 -34.85%
Monday January 25th 2021 1,372 14,128 1,927.80 -24.61% 2,018.29 -36.94% 2,609.43 -44.39%
Tuesday January 26th 2021 928 13,055 1,591.80 -34.56% 1,865.00 -38.76% 2,455.29 -48.87%
Wednesday January 27th 2021 1,335 11,902 1,384.60 -40.26% 1,700.29 -41.19% 2,295.71 -53.48%
Thursday January 28th 2021 1,446 10,740 1,291.80 -43.23% 1,534.29 -43.15% 2,116.50 -58.51%
Friday January 29th 2021 1,254 9,623 1,267.00 -41.10% 1,374.71 -45.83% 1,956.21 -62.57%
Saturday January 30th 2021 1,414 9,127 1,275.40 -33.84% 1,303.86 -44.49% 1,826.43 -64.97%
Sunday January 31st 2021 1,247 8,996 1,339.20 -15.87% 1,285.14 -39.53% 1,705.21 -66.37%
Monday February 1st 2021 1,062 8,686 1,284.60 -7.22% 1,240.86 -38.52% 1,629.57 -65.95%
Tuesday February 2nd 2021 879 8,637 1,171.20 -9.34% 1,233.86 -33.84% 1,549.43 -65.93%
Wednesday February 3rd 2021 1,013 8,315 1,123.00 -11.37% 1,187.86 -30.14% 1,444.07 -65.33%
Thursday February 4th 2021 1,318 8,187 1,103.80 -13.45% 1,169.57 -23.77% 1,351.93 -65.21%
Friday February 5th 2021 1,047 7,980 1,063.80 -20.56% 1,140.00 -17.07% 1,257.36 -63.73%
Saturday February 6th 2021 827 7,393 1,016.80 -20.85% 1,056.14 -19.00% 1,180.00 -63.77%
Sunday February 7th 2021 1,024 7,170 1,045.80 -10.71% 1,024.29 -20.30% 1,154.71 -59.67%
Monday February 8th 2021 829 6,937 1,009.00 -10.15% 991.00 -20.14% 1,115.93 -57.23%
Tuesday February 9th 2021 556 6,614 856.60 -22.40% 944.86 -23.42% 1,089.36 -55.63%
Wednesday February 10th 2021 1,006 6,607 848.40 -20.25% 943.86 -20.54% 1,065.86 -53.57%
Thursday February 11th 2021 866 6,155 856.20 -15.79% 879.29 -24.82% 1,024.43 -51.60%
Friday February 12th 2021 921 6,029 835.60 -20.10% 861.29 -24.45% 1,000.64 -48.85%
Saturday February 13th 2021 1,078 6,280 885.40 -12.25% 897.14 -15.05% 976.64 -46.53%
Sunday February 14th 2021 788 6,044 931.80 8.78% 863.43 -15.70% 943.86 -44.65%
Monday February 15th 2021 821 6,036 894.80 5.47% 862.29 -12.99% 926.64 -43.14%
Tuesday February 16th 2021 744 6,224 870.40 1.66% 889.14 -5.90% 917.00 -40.82%
Wednesday February 17th 2021 650 5,868 816.20 -2.32% 838.29 -11.19% 891.07 -38.29%
Thursday February 18th 2021 901 5,903 780.80 -11.81% 843.29 -4.09% 861.29 -36.29%
Friday February 19th 2021 763 5,745 775.80 -16.74% 820.71 -4.71% 841.00 -33.11%
Saturday February 20th 2021 988 5,655 809.20 -9.57% 807.86 -9.95% 852.50 -27.75%

Dubit11

zuutroy wrote: »

Yes, cases are going to almost triple in the next week. Savvy analysis there.

I see your maths isn't that great.

retro:electro

tucker1971 wrote: »

Everytime Micheal martin mentions further restrictions, his go to excuse is because of new variants.
Does he realise the reason we have new variants is due to his failure to implement airport quarantine? Is he actually that thick that he dosent realise this?

There has also been variants of this virus since the start. It’s like he was taught a new word over Christmas and hasn’t shut up using it since

Ireland has had 4,000 deaths with one of the strictest lockdowns in the world (the equivalent of 267,000 deaths if Ireland were the size of the US).

Sweden has - with very limited/acceptable restrictions - (double the population of Ireland) had 12,000 deaths.

To put it another way, Ireland is only 2,000 deaths away from equalling Sweden (which sounds like a lot, but over the course of 1 year, it isn't). You would expect, given our incessant restrictions, our death toll would be SIGNIFICANTLY less than other countries. We find out that it isn't the magic bullet that NPHET, Chairman Holohan, and Prefect Glynn promise it to be.

This is the value of perpetual lockdown, then?

What a waste.
What a disaster NPHET is.
And what a disaster Michael Martin and his government are.

And this madness, which has proven to be largely ineffective in its goals, is set to continue for weeks ahead.

ScummyMan

Dubit11 wrote: »

Huge numbers again i see. The amount of people out and about not bothering to adhere to the rules is frightening. I can see us above 2000 a day by the start of March tbh.

And pray tell how are you seeing these people "out and about"? You're not by any chance out and about yourself are you?

hynesie08

Dubit11 wrote: »

I see your maths isn't that great.

The start of March is Monday week.....

Christy42

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Ireland has had 4,000 deaths with one of the strictest lockdowns in the world (the equivalent of 267,000 deaths if Ireland were the size of the US).

Sweden has - with very limited/acceptable restrictions - (double the population of Ireland) had 12,000 deaths.

To put it another way, Ireland is only 2,000 deaths away from equalling Sweden (which sounds like a lot, but over the course of 1 year, it isn't). You would expect, given our incessant restrictions, our death toll would be SIGNIFICANTLY less than other countries. We find out that it isn't the magic bullet that NPHET, Chairman Holohan, and Prefect Glynn promise it to be.

This is the value of perpetual lockdown, then?

What a waste.
What a disaster NPHET is.
And what a disaster Michael Martin and his government are.

And this madness, which has proven to be largely ineffective in its goals, is set to continue for weeks ahead.

I would say an extra 50% would be quite a bit. I mean you flat out say that 2k over a year shouldn't be considered a lot so really we are only 2k away from being 3 times as good as Sweden?

Ficheall

Christy42 wrote: »

I would say an extra 50% would be quite a bit. I mean you flat out say that 2k over a year shouldn't be considered a lot so really we are only 2k away from being 3 times as good as Sweden?

I think what he means is that before the gov't capitulated to the "meaningful Christmas" demands to open up, we were about 3.5 times as good as Sweden.

hmmm

ScummyMan wrote: »

And pray tell how are you seeing these people "out and about"? You're not by any chance out and about yourself are you?

We can also be fairly sure the spread isn't happening when people are "out and about" in the first place. It's happening when they are "in and not moving" for the most part. We're not getting 1000 new cases a day from people visiting a park.

retro:electro

retro:electro wrote: »

There has also been variants of this virus since the start. It’s like he was taught a new word over Christmas and hasn’t shut up using it since

Yes. He is that thick. A complete and utter failure.

Dubit11

ScummyMan wrote: »

And pray tell how are you seeing these people "out and about"? You're not by any chance out and about yourself are you?

Yeah i am every day as im a postman. Is that it?

Dubit11

hynesie08 wrote: »

The start of March is Monday week.....

So more than a week. And 3 times 988 is almost 3k not 2k.

Carry on

Dubit11

hmmm wrote: »

We can also be fairly sure the spread isn't happening when people are "out and about" in the first place. It's happening when they are "in and not moving" for the most part. We're not getting 1000 new cases a day from people visiting a park.

Who said it's from people "visiting parks".

Dubit11

Dubit11 wrote: »

Who said it's from people "visiting parks".

The people who have made it a criminal offence to visit a park if it's 5001 metres from your front door?

WoollyRedHat

Is mandatory hotel quarantine now in place?

Stheno

WoollyRedHat wrote: »

Is mandatory hotel quarantine now in place?

Nope

Cluedo Monopoly

WoollyRedHat wrote: »

Is mandatory hotel quarantine now in place?

In many other countries, Yes. But here? On this island in the Atlantic? Oh no, that takes a year of planning...

WoollyRedHat

Stheno wrote: »

Nope

No rush like.

WoollyRedHat

WoollyRedHat wrote: »

Is mandatory hotel quarantine now in place?

Not only have they chosen mass house arrest instead of stopping people coming in, the Embassy in Brasilia is still issuing visas for Brazilian "students" to come to Ireland to "learn English".

WoollyRedHat

b0nk1e wrote: »

Not only have they chosen mass house arrest instead of stopping people coming in, the Embassy in Brasilia is still issuing visas for Brazilian "students" to come to Ireland to "learn English".

Really? I was of the opinion government had put a halt to these. Also as it stands, routine passport applications aren't being processed.

Jim_Hodge

b0nk1e wrote: »

The people who have made it a criminal offence to visit a park if it's 5001 metres from your front door?

Here we go again. Who has both said it's from people meeting in parks and have made it a criminal offence to go 1 metre beyond 5km?

It's obviously in the plural so a simple two to start will do.

Jim_Hodge

b0nk1e wrote: »

Not only have they chosen mass house arrest instead of stopping people coming in, the Embassy in Brasilia is still issuing visas for Brazilian "students" to come to Ireland to "learn English".

Exaggeration like this just ruins any argument, as it drifts into a fantasy.

WoollyRedHat

WoollyRedHat wrote: »

Really? I was of the opinion government had put a halt to these. Also as it stands, routine passport applications aren't being processed.

The only restriction that has been put in place to stop arrivals from Brazil is that Brazilian passport holders now need a visa to visit Ireland.

(On double-checking, it appears that the DOJ stopped processing new visa applications two weeks ago)

Cluedo Monopoly

https://www.dublinlive.ie/news/dublin-news/heroic-couple-who-rescued-freezing-19881298?fbclid=IwAR3CVE6nXaRXhXHdDg0gxOokH9_zCK8WS80DfCEZaeRFw9TUbG0m91tksro

Heroic couple who rescued freezing dog from mountain reported to gardai for breaching 5km rule.
A member of the public reported the couple for breaching non-essential travel rules.

What have people become? No common sense. They are both doctors too.