Covid 19 Part XXXII-215,743 ROI (4,137 deaths)111,166 NI (2,036 deaths)(22/02)Read OP

is_that_so

gifted wrote: »

As soon as the high risk group are vaccinated I can see the government opening nearly everything....the young people will catch it but it won't take out many of them.

What a lovely turn of phrase!

TheDoctor

gifted wrote: »

As soon as the high risk group are vaccinated I can see the government opening nearly everything....the young people will catch it but it won't take out many of them.

I'd replace "take out many of them" with "require them to take up hospital beds".

And I agree with the rest.

Gael23

SeaMermaid wrote: »

What are you waiting for the government to tell you what the goal is? We know what the goal is. The goal is to get transmissions in communities down to as low as possible into the 100s perhaps. That will allow that safe and successful reopening with less viral transmissions.

Why are you waiting for the government to build you hope? There is hope and a light at the end of the tunnel. You just need to open your eyes and see it. The vaccines are here and they will be ramped up, we need to give them a chance to work. It's such a long process with 2 injections, weeks apart, immunity isn't going to happen over night.

How about something like at 200 per day non essential retail opens, 150 household visits allowed,

Ignore numbers, just trying to make a point

marno21

It's clear from the data now that we are starting to see a divide in the country between levels of outbreak severity.

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1363550312787755009/photo/1

Kerry are now at incidence level of 50 per 100k whereas Monaghan have 430 per 100k.

Cork, with Ireland's second city, is 2nd from bottom of the incidence level table at 97 per 100k which is impressive given the third level institutions, density of population etc.

If Cork can achieve that level of suppression with a large city, no reason why many of the counties with much higher levels of incidence can't.

There is heavy Garda enforcement of travel restrictions in Cork which may be helping.

Ficheall

Gael23 wrote: »

How about something like at 200 per day non essential retail opens, 150 household visits allowed,

Ignore numbers, just trying to make a point

Are the numbers not the important bit...?

CIARAN_BOYLE

TheDoctor wrote: »

I cant see that being an issue again until next the next Winter surge by the time April comes around.

Factoring the drop over the next will see which we are defintely closed for and the increased vaccine roll out.

Its still an issue at the moment.

Can't see opening up until numbers in icu are less than 50.

The most important opening up we need is routine medical care and elective procedure. We can't do that fully till icu numbers are sub 50.

WoollyRedHat

Happydays2020 wrote: »

Last 7 Sunday's

January 10th - 4842
January 17th - 3231
January 24th - 1910
January 31st - 1414
February 7th - 1024
February 14th - 788
February 21st - 679

Cases have reduced seven-fold since January 10th, excellent.

FintanMcluskey

marno21 wrote: »

It's clear from the data now that we are starting to see a divide in the country between levels of outbreak severity.

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1363550312787755009/photo/1

Kerry are now at incidence level of 50 per 100k whereas Monaghan have 430 per 100k.

Cork, with Ireland's second city, is 2nd from bottom of the incidence level table at 97 per 100k which is impressive given the third level institutions, density of population etc.

If Cork can achieve that level of suppression with a large city, no reason why many of the counties with much higher levels of incidence can't.

There is heavy Garda enforcement of travel restrictions in Cork which may be helping.

Likely more low paid workers in Monaghan working in various food and horticultural production, living and working in poor conditions spreading the disease.

Chris_5339762

I'm in Cork and it is really quite incredible how, in every lockdown, Cork comes down to very very low levels. Much lower than you'd expect given the size of Cork City.

My own theory is that there is a lot more one-off housing in Cork, and lots more small towns. Fewer very large new build estates, very few apartment complexes. So when we lockdown, people when they "stay at home" are far further apart than Dublin or the commuter counties and that really helps.

There is some Garda enforcement alright, but going from Cobh to Cork in the morning for work I meet nothing. That said, there are some fixed checkpoints on the main routes to Cork and mobile checkpoints, but not enough to cause the big differences seen in those numbers.

TonyMaloney

TheDoctor wrote: »

Flu season is ending and the high risk groups are being vaccinated.

Could have 1000 cases a day now, hospitalisations won’t go up

2.4% of the population is fully vaccinated. We're far from being out of the woods.

We have all the ingredients in place for another disaster in our hospitals. Hence the restrictions.

Ficheall

TonyMaloney wrote: »

2.4% of the population is fully vaccinated. We're far from being out of the woods.

We have all the ingredients in place for another disaster in our hospitals. Hence the restrictions.

We're doing well for now though. If things continue as they are, we'll beat the virus..

Derek Zoolander

TonyMaloney wrote: »

2.4% of the population is fully vaccinated. We're far from being out of the woods.

We have all the ingredients in place for another disaster in our hospitals. Hence the restrictions.

Medical staff vaccinated - lockdown in place - what ingredients for a medical disaster are in place

People talk about the December/January wave as if it were preventable.

In an ideal world, infections are always preventable. But with Christmas, New Year, seasonal factors, and weather etc. - it was a perfect and inevitable storm that would lead to an enormous number of cases.

Those who suggest, in practical and realistic terms, that it was "avoidable" are not living in the real world.

Even if Chairman Holohan and Prefect Glynn attempted to enforce a stay-at-home order during that two-week period, the December-January wave would have happened to a large degree anyway - as it has in the rest of Europe, and as it did 100-years ago during the Spanish Flu.

It wasn't avoidable. It was inevitable.

Second, now that the height of winter is behind us, the perfect storm of contagion is over. There is no need to assume the same level of restrictions for that prior period to the future weeks and months.

They are not comparable scenarios - though nefarious NPHET assumes that they are.

Once summer comes in - with OR without vaccines - numbers will remain low regardless, as they did last summer throughout Europe, and as they did 100 years ago during the Spanish Flu. This is simply how infections work. It is no surprise to me that the pattern we see now, even with all the benefits of hindsight, is almost exactly the same kind of pattern 100 years ago.

Let's accept the inevitable - open up to some degree with precautions, and leave this failed NPHET scientific experiment called "lockdown" behind us.

ednwireland

marno21 wrote: »

Cork, with Ireland's second city, is 2nd from bottom of the incidence level table at 97 per 100k which is impressive given the third level institutions, density of population etc.

If Cork can achieve that level of suppression with a large city, no reason why many of the counties with much higher levels of incidence can't.

There is heavy Garda enforcement of travel restrictions in Cork which may be helping.

donegal down to 150 from 532 on dec 29th very little garda presence where I am

JP Liz V1

I wonder can you catch one of the other variants if you already had it, some talk of the vaccine not stopping the Brazilian variant

Plumbthedepths

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

I wonder can you catch one of the other variants if you already had it, some talk of the vaccine not stopping the Brazilian variant

You mean McConkey saying it and he's wrong.

TheDoctor

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

You mean McConkey saying it and he's wrong.

If you came out at the start and said 0 people in Ireland would die from covid, you would be closer than his predictions.

TonyMaloney

Ficheall wrote: »

We're doing well for now though. If things continue as they are, we'll beat the virus..

I think we're nearing the low water mark. If we continued on like this we'd have it beaten by mid May.
But schools start to open in 8 days time.

I don't know how that's going to go, but it's highly unlikely to have no impact on our case numbers.

spookwoman

TheDoctor

Are we due some Moderna? Their dose figures are very low.

Plumbthedepths

TheDoctor wrote: »

If you came out at the start and said 0 people in Ireland would die from covid, you would be closer than his predictions.

He's a disgrace at this stage and it's bizarre he gets airtime.

Doctor Jimbob

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

He's a disgrace at this stage and it's bizarre he gets airtime.

Absolutely. I know differing viewpoints need to be given time but McConkey is every bit as extreme as some lunatic raving about Covid being caused by 5g or some such nonsense. Can't see why he's trotted out on a weekly basis as some kind of expert.

Gruffalux

Deleted User wrote: »

People talk about the December/January wave as if it were preventable.

In an ideal world, infections are always preventable. But with Christmas, New Year, seasonal factors, and weather etc. - it was a perfect and inevitable storm that would lead to an enormous number of cases.

Those who suggest, in practical and realistic terms, that it was "avoidable" are not living in the real world.

Even if Chairman Holohan and Prefect Glynn attempted to enforce a stay-at-home order during that two-week period, the December-January wave would have happened to a large degree anyway - as it has in the rest of Europe, and as it did 100-years ago during the Spanish Flu.

It wasn't avoidable. It was inevitable.

This is incorrect. Coming up on 1900 deaths in the past 7 and a half weeks was not inevitable. Other countries did not experience spikes anywhere as dramatic as ours around midwinter. We absolutely shot up to the top of the world league surpassing even the disastrous UK and became quite infamous for it worldwide in January. Only Portugal seems to have rivalled us with their post Christmas spike. There would have been a second wave due to winter, and indoor confinement and some seasonal socialising, but the extraordinary level of the spike and the number of deaths was absolutely not inevitable.

mohawk

TonyMaloney wrote: »

I think we're nearing the low water mark. If we continued on like this we'd have it beaten by mid May.
But schools start to open in 8 days time.

I don't know how that's going to go, but it's highly unlikely to have no impact on our case numbers.

The needs of children must be prioritised. If the government had been serious about really lowering case numbers and suppressing the virus they would of had a stricter lockdown in January. People can comply with shorter lockdowns.
The longer this lockdown continues the less compliance there will be.

Ficheall

Deleted User wrote: »

Let's accept the inevitable - open up to some degree with precautions, and leave this failed NPHET scientific experiment called "lockdown" behind us.

You have a real chip on your shoulder about NPHET.



Lockdown has worked and is working. I can understand some people taking issue about whether it is worth the other costs, but trying to claim it hasn't reduced cases is ridiculous.

hmmm

titan18 wrote: »

Big difference between people walking by themselves or with own other Vs 10 people sitting on the footpath drinking cans together.
.

There's very little evidence of outdoor spread, even with studies which have looked at large-scale events such as political protests. You're only complaining because you can see them, and that leads to a waste of resources such as Garda cars driving around parks.

Meanwhile the real risk is happening inside in places you can't see. Every minute the Guards spend driving around a park to look as if they are doing something is one less minute they could be spending trying to reduce the actual risk.

Loafing Oaf

Leitrim and Roscommon have achieved zero covid!:D Sligo very nearly there too. Maybe they can carve out their own New Zealand of the NorthWest...

Faugheen

Most people trying to talk about mental health are the most disingenuous bunch around.

Today on Twitter I saw someone using the suicide of a young girl to link to the pandemic and the lockdowns. So many people saying this is causing x, y, and z of a mental health pandemic and none of them gave a flying f*ck about the mental health issues we had before.

I'm not trying to suggest that people aren't struggling with this. I absolutely believe they are, but the ones who are doing most of the shouting are just bored of looking at the same four walls all the time.

It actually sickens me that people shout 'mental health!' when it's extremely complex and trying to shout that reopening the country will be better for people's mental health is just going to solve everything. Someone needs to tell these people that they haven't the clue about what going through depression and anxiety is actually like.

It's being used as a political tool and it quite frankly sickens me.

However, what the government are doing in that they're drip-feeding information and kite-flying suggestions out there while going days between sub-committee, and cabinet meetings is causing genuine and legitimate anger out there. THAT is something that causing people to lose their minds, and that needs to stop as well.

Call a cabinet meeting, get the NPHET advice, address the nation, spell it out. This pussy-footing around has to stop.

Gruffalux

Gruffalux wrote: »

This is incorrect. Coming up on 1900 deaths in the past 7 and a half weeks was not inevitable. Other countries did not experience spikes anywhere as dramatic as ours around midwinter. We absolutely shot up to the top of the world league surpassing even the disastrous UK and became quite infamous for it worldwide in January. Only Portugal seems to have rivalled us with their post Christmas spike. There would have been a second wave due to winter, and indoor confinement and some seasonal socialising, but the extraordinary level of the spike and the number of deaths was absolutely not inevitable.

The reason the spike existed is because Ireland has almost uniquely avoided any form of herd immunity spread.

It has become obsessed with limiting all viral transmission.

That's why the spike was as big as it was. A spike itself was inevitable; the extreme policies implemented by Chairman Holohan etc. only amplified the spike when it did occur.

giveitholly

If this is Britains roadmap out of lockdown then it will put some pressure on MM and co

https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1363551368842207240?s=19