Covid 19 Part XXXII-215,743 ROI (4,137 deaths)111,166 NI (2,036 deaths)(22/02)Read OP

WoollyRedHat

padjocollins wrote: »

https://www.wsj.com/articles/well-have-herd-immunity-by-april-11613669731

Topol has disputed the claim that US will have herd immunity by April, as made in WSJ by John Hopkins physician, based on below:

Eric Topol
@EricTopol
No, we won't. A deeply flawed oped
https://wsj.com/articles/well-have-herd-immunity-by-april-11613669731?mod=e2two
—55% of Americans do not have natural immunity
—2/3 of the US population has not had covid
—Wrong on T-cell protection
—Very high Brazil infection rate was not protective
—150M will not be vaccinated by March end

And

- Turns a blind eye to variants, particularly B.1.1.7, which has accounted for peak pandemic surges, hospitalization, and deaths in Israel, UK, Ireland and Portugal, and now seeded throughout the US.

I think if you're going to make such a big claim, you should seek to back it up with convincing data that is peer-reviewed and then WSJ can publish a coed on this basis. Strange for it to be the other way around.

ETA: Guy who wrote the op-ed is apparently a surgical oncologist, so probably won't be publishing peer-reviewed data any time soon on this one.

TonyMaloney

TonyMaloney wrote: »

Apparently all schools in England are to open on the 8th.

This is pretty cold, but it gives us the opportunity to sit back and see what happens.

Ireland gets to go first, leaving cert back next week apparently.

is_that_so

WoollyRedHat wrote: »

Topol has disputed the claim that US will have herd immunity by April, as made in WSJ by John Hopkins physician, based on below:

Eric Topol
@EricTopol
No, we won't. A deeply flawed oped
https://wsj.com/articles/well-have-herd-immunity-by-april-11613669731?mod=e2two
—55% of Americans do not have natural immunity
—2/3 of the US population has not had covid
—Wrong on T-cell protection
—Very high Brazil infection rate was not protective
—150M will not be vaccinated by March end

Topol is generally Ok but these types of public p1ssing contests don't help the debate any more as they give the impression people just want to be right. I think we mere humans have already reflected on the improbability of it happening without that dreaded long list of selected facts which show that I am right tweets.

spookwoman

runawaybishop wrote: »

Well done you. Criticise the government all you want, but the vaccine rollout is being managed by the HSE. Discussions should be fact based, not based on sensationalised tweets from people trying to attract clicks.

You might want to look up the chain of command for the HSE.

Code of governence of the HSE

Minister for Health
then HSE Board etc etc.

So yes the government is responsible for the rollout.

WoollyRedHat

is_that_so wrote: »

Topol is generally Ok but these types of public p1ssing contests don't help the debate any more as they give the impression people just want to be right. I think we mere humans have already reflected on the improbability of it happening without that dreaded long list of selected facts which show that I am right tweets.

I agree public pissing contests are no good but in fairness he follows up to take aim at WSJ for not employing fact-checkers. That's the third publication in past week to post articles that can be said to be either misleading or based on misrepresentation. No surprise they were all Financial newspapers.

seamus

seamus wrote: »

Should be around 715 by Saturday this week. Under 700 would be a great number.

We landed at 719 on Saturday.

Nevertheless, I'm a little concerned that we're about to see a plateau in hospital numbers. Or at least a slowing down. Last week saw admissions flatten a bit around 40/day. Though that could have been a blip.

Weekly drops;
25th - 30th: Down 454 (23%)
2nd - 6th: Down 330 (21.6%)
9th - 13th: Down 314 (26%)
15th - 20th: Down 197 (21.5%)

We *might* be at 560 by this Saturday. I would like to see admissions more solidly at 30/day by the end of the week though.

The picture in ICU is a bit clearer than it was. It's been a fairly clean linear decline since the start of the month. This lets us make half decent projections.

Short-term, we could be around 130 in ICU come 1st March. Down to ~100 by Paddy's Day, and then potentially around 60 by Easter. Obviously the projections get less reliable the further out you go.

caveat emptor

I see we are back to positive / negative. Hope vs doom merchants etc. Thanks to Lawred2 for positing an opinion on why Denmark might be able to do it quicker than us. Will be interesting to see. Hopefully our government are being overly negative in their projects. Based on how positive they've been throughout this though I think they might just starting to be realistic which is generally better than both positive and negative projections.

Reducing everything to positive and negative is only really useful when doing something like a PCR test.

Cork2021

Cork2021 wrote: »

Not good enough, ;-)

https://twitter.com/coronavirusgoo1/status/1363786622131707908?s=21

That'll be the goalposts shifted again here ... house arrest and prohibition of private business continues until a vaccine is found that reduces chances of hospitalisation by 95% .

TonyMaloney

TonyMaloney wrote: »

This is a very negative analysis. Are you always so negative?

I find it very interesting that the Danes are telling their people they'll all have access to vaccines by July.
That is not the message over here. Why not?

It's an entirely valid topic of discussion, but all you can do is attack the poster.

Because Denmark have made their projection on supply that is as yet uncertain, whereas we have made our projection on secured supply

caveat emptor

caveat emptor wrote: »

I see we are back to positive / negative. Hope vs doom merchants etc. Thanks to Lawred2 for positing an opinion on why Denmark might be able to do it quicker than us. Will be interesting to see. Hopefully our government are being overly negative in their projects. Based on how positive they've been throughout this though I think they might just starting to be realistic which is generally better than both positive and negative projections.

Reducing everything to positive and negative is only really useful when doing something like a PCR test.

5,000 people giving 20 doses per day will get everyone done in Q2, if we have the supply.

TonyMaloney

runawaybishop wrote: »

We are using different projections.

Right. And how in the name of **** is that not a valid topic for discussion here?
Why the **** is the like of yourself trying to shut it down?

Like is there a good chance the Danish projection is correct and ours is perhaps too conservative?
I've no idea. I'd like to find out. But apparently this topic is just too ****ing negative for some of you to handle.

TonyMaloney

Deleted User wrote: »

Because Denmark have made their projection on supply that is as yet uncertain, whereas we have made our projection on secured supply

Thanks.

would you say it's uncertain but probable?
And does it definitely follow that if their projection is correct, that ours is incorrect?

lawred2

Deleted User wrote: »

Because Denmark have made their projection on supply that is as yet uncertain, whereas we have made our projection on secured supply

wouldn't it be nice to get some positivity from government though - rather than dour pessimism and "promise low deliver marginally better than low" bullsh!t

SheepsClothing

TonyMaloney wrote: »

Right. And how in the name of **** is that not a valid topic for discussion here?
Why the **** is the like of yourself trying to shut it down?

Like is there a good chance the Danish projection is correct and ours is perhaps too conservative?
I've no idea. I'd like to find out. But apparently this topic is just too ****ing negative for some of you to handle.

Thinking that things will be ok, and speculating on what we might do better - Negative!, Doom and Gloom!, Curtain Twitching!

Constantly complaining and whinging on a never ending loop, whilst prophesying Jonestown style mass suicide events - This is fine, more of this please!

Mitch Connor

So, was looking into the Denmark piece to see where were measured up against them. and found this:

https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/covid-19/vaccine-roll-out-overview



Why is our vaccine doses delivered per 100 population 1.1 in comparison to Germany at 8.2 or Denmark at 8.9? Why are the numbers not the same per country, or at least close? (EDIT: Sorry, they are close per country, if you removed Ireland and Estonia....) Why are Ireland at 1.1 and Estonia at 1.4 when other countris are 6 times or more that number?

I am angry that the vaccine rollout in ireland is slow, and we keep hearing it is keeping pace with Deliveries.... well why are the deliveries so slow in comparions?

Did we get our deliveries on the 15th and our number is now comparible?

Am I just reading the data completely wrong?

Polar101

SheepsClothing wrote: »

Constantly complaining and whinging on a never ending loop, whilst prophesying Jonestown style mass suicide events - This is fine, more of this please!

And a bonus point for posting it in a way that makes it sound like it's the opinion "of the people".

is_that_so

lawred2 wrote: »

wouldn't it be nice to get some positivity from government though - rather than dour pessimism and "promise low deliver marginally better than low" bullsh!t

Underpromising is a better approach. As McCraith has said the situation on supplies has changed numerous times and they've had to adjust accordingly. The government have no influence over it apart from paying for vaccines, this is all the HSE. Where there is an issue with them is on a total lack of planning and structured communications.

The McEntee comment and the Varadkar 250K from April are good examples of what needs to be included along with proper explanations of why it will be x number of weeks until we see changes. Instead it's this dogmatic nothing till May and the nebulous not set in stone. People need to hear all of it together. I also reckon they need to give up something this side of Easter, even if its not real easing.

timmyntc

Mitch Connor wrote: »

So, was looking into the Denmark piece to see where were measured up against them. and found this:

https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/covid-19/vaccine-roll-out-overview



Why is our vaccine doses delivered per 100 population 1.1 in comparison to Germany at 8.2 or Denmark at 8.9? Why are the numbers not the same per country, or at least close? (EDIT: Sorry, they are close per country, if you removed Ireland and Estonia....) Why are Ireland at 1.1 and Estonia at 1.4 when other countris are 6 times or more that number?

I am angry that the vaccine rollout in ireland is slow, and we keep hearing it is keeping pace with Deliveries.... well why are the deliveries so slow in comparions?

Did we get our deliveries on the 15th and our number is now comparible?

Am I just reading the data completely wrong?

Who negotiates this?

Polar101

Mitch Connor wrote: »

S
Why is our vaccine doses delivered per 100 population 1.1 in comparison to Germany at 8.2 or Denmark at 8.9?

The previous graph shows 43,000 doses of vaccines have been delivered to Ireland. I've no idea what that number is supposed to be - obviously it has to be higher, since the number of vaccinations done is in the hundreds of thousands.

Maybe the HSE forgot to tell the EU "yea we got some".

seamus

Mitch Connor wrote: »

I am angry that the vaccine rollout in ireland is slow, and we keep hearing it is keeping pace with Deliveries.... well why are the deliveries so slow in comparions?

Am I just reading the data completely wrong?

You're not reading the data wrong, the data itself is just wrong.

For whatever reason there's been a constant issue getting this data up-to-date.

It seems to be nearly correct here:
https://qap.ecdc.europa.eu/public/extensions/COVID-19/vaccine-tracker.html#distribution-tab

Saying 9 doses per 100 in Ireland, which is about 450,000. Which sounds about right.

The cribbing on Twitter and from the pertually angry needs to be ignored:

Ireland is not slow in rolling out the vaccine

We are fifth in the EU for the proportion of our population who have received at least one dose.

We are second in the EU for the proportion of our population fully vaccinated. (Denamrk, 3.8%, Ireland 3.5%)

Mitch Connor

seamus wrote: »

You're not reading the data wrong, the data itself is just wrong.

For whatever reason there's been a constant issue getting this data up-to-date.

It seems to be nearly correct here:
https://qap.ecdc.europa.eu/public/extensions/COVID-19/vaccine-tracker.html#distribution-tab

Saying 9 doses per 100 in Ireland, which is about 450,000. Which sounds about right.

Thank you.

lawred2

is_that_so wrote: »

Underpromising is a better approach. As McCraith has said the situation on supplies has changed numerous times and they've had adjust accordingly. The government no influence over it apart from paying for vaccines, this is all the HSE. Where there is an issue with them is on a total lack of planning and structured communications.

The McEntee comment and the Varadkar 250K from April are good examples of what needs to be included along with proper explanations of why it will be x number of weeks until we see changes. Instead it's this dogmatic nothing till May and the nebulous not set in stone. People need to hear all of it together. I also reckon they need to give up something this side of Easter, even if its not real easing.

I think most people are mature enough to understand

"This is our plan based on X. It's optimistic but we have to be positive.

If X changes; then we will have to adjust the plan. But that will be immediately communicated to you all. But we are going to go hell for leather to deliver on the original plan."

Instead we get a steady stream of misery, pessimistic plans and lockdowns with no end.

caveat emptor

Seems data very incomplete. God forbid we were actually able to see what was going on.

lawred2

seamus wrote: »

You're not reading the data wrong, the data itself is just wrong.

For whatever reason there's been a constant issue getting this data up-to-date.

It seems to be nearly correct here:
https://qap.ecdc.europa.eu/public/extensions/COVID-19/vaccine-tracker.html#distribution-tab

Saying 9 doses per 100 in Ireland, which is about 450,000. Which sounds about right.

The cribbing on Twitter and from the pertually angry needs to be ignored:

Ireland is not slow in rolling out the vaccine

We are fifth in the EU for the proportion of our population who have received at least one dose.

We are second in the EU for the proportion of our population fully vaccinated. (Denamrk, 3.8%, Ireland 3.5%)

This is good to read. But why should we have to get it here?

How hard would it be for this to be made public in a clear manner for all?

Are the government afraid that we can't handle good news?

lawred2

caveat emptor wrote: »

Seems data very incomplete. God forbid we were actually able to see what was going on.

No data

That's good

Mitch Connor

Leo saying 250k in April isn't helpful to my state of mind.

I want to have some freedom again, some places to go again. If they aren't tying vaccine rollout to lockdown easing, I care less about the numbers per week or month - I can only care about when it is finished because the message we are getting is we are going to be in lockdown til the vaccien rollout is finished. Or at least that is what it is feeling like.

IMO, there should be a big easing of restrictions when the vulnerable and at risk groups are vaccinated, but the government don't seem to have a plan to do that. It is infuriating being in this situation with no communication or leadership.

is_that_so

lawred2 wrote: »

I think most people are mature enough to understand

"This is our plan based on X. It's optimistic but we have to be positive.

If X changes; then we will have to adjust the plan. But that will be immediately communicated to you all. But we are going to go hell for leather to deliver on the original plan."

Instead we get a steady stream of misery and lockdowns with no end.

Yeah, but as I said not the fault of the ongoing vaccination programme and we are now getting information on the week ahead in advance. It is really poor communications elsewhere that is annoying people.

zuutroy

I found the following data on a website that I can't remember and I'm outraged by it:

Everywhere else - Excellent
Ireland - Terrible

celt262

Mitch Connor wrote: »

Leo saying 250k in April isn't helpful to my state of mind.
/QUOTE]

250K a week is it not?

Wombatman

caveat emptor wrote: »

I see we are back to positive / negative. Hope vs doom merchants etc. Thanks to Lawred2 for positing an opinion on why Denmark might be able to do it quicker than us. Will be interesting to see. Hopefully our government are being overly negative in their projects. Based on how positive they've been throughout this though I think they might just starting to be realistic which is generally better than both positive and negative projections.

Reducing everything to positive and negative is only really useful when doing something like a PCR test.

I think having a positive outlook, in general, during this pandemic, and all that is brings, really boosts ones resilience day to day. So easy to get ground down by lockdown life.