Covid 19 Part XXXII-215,743 ROI (4,137 deaths)111,166 NI (2,036 deaths)(22/02)Read OP

Tyrone212

[Deleted User] wrote: »

would the incentive of x number cases per day,not give the public a reason to lie and chance not getting tested,giving rise to more super spreader events

IMO people who would do that wouldn't be currently seeking a test if they fell ill unless they became sick enough. I'm doubtful they would be following the rules as it is. I've also seen anti lockdown sorts posting throughout the entirety of the pandemic for people not to get tested for covid so we can open up earlier. They would cop on quick to that if it happened anyway with rising hospital figures and lower cases.

Turtwig

Tyrone212 wrote: »

I'm not a behavioural Scientist but surely it would make sense to give people something to aim for. I'm not a fan of dates, I would rather if they gave a target for x amount of cases before opening something up. That way the population is incentivised and has a goal in mind. Or even dates if the numbers allow that to happen.

Shared goals and objectives is pretty much the way this should be done. The situation is too dynamic to to go via exact dates. Trouble is this government seem to think setting unrealistic expectations over and over again is a perfectly reasonable communication strategy.

Klonker

AlmightyCushion wrote: »

The reason there won't be dates on the plan is that the dates would be essentially meaningless. It will all depend on what is the situation with Covid in the country at the time. There is no point putting a date on something if you can't know if you are going to be able to hit that date or not. The problem is we don't know what re-opening will look like. We could re-open things and then see cases start rising again or they might not drop at all or drop slower than you were expecting. We seen what happened with the last plan they put dates on, the one before Christmas. When we locked down in October, they thought cases would drop more than they did and when we opened up again cases rose much, much quicker than they were expecting and we ended up with the shít show we are in now. Realistically, the government would have been better off not sticking any dates on the last plan. We could have reopened a bit later than we did, case numbers would likely have been lower when we did reopen and while they still would have exploded over Christmas, the increase would have been later and starting from a lower base.

I'm not really a fan of the dates either but they could have giving us something. What the hell did they talk about?

They haven't even agreed the first step which is the opening of schools which we all thought was already agreed for 1st March. The funny thing is NPHET and government didn't even want to close schools in early January and said they were safe, only closing due to union pressure. Now almost 2 months later and they won't even open them up again.

Without dates they still could of given us stages. First X classes back in schools, then Y classes back. Next step construction back, then meeting X amount outside etc. Instead they will give us nothing. How is this a living with Covid plan? It's just a continue until April with basically same restrictions and then we'll come up with a plan.

No mention of cases, hospital numbers, ICU numbers or vaccine numbers as a guide either. Maybe a lot of us are jumping the gun with our criticism and we'll be pleasantly surprised tomorrow but from what we've heard so far that's highly unlikely.

hynesie08

I'm digging for the tweet, but a reporter claimed that the lifting of restrictions would be linked to vaccines administered.

https://twitter.com/christinafinn8/status/1363978596939952130?s=20

Updated Living with Covid Plan will not include indicative dates like U.K. plan today, will focus heavily on vaccine roll out.

Govt sources stating March/ into April will remain difficult

MrMusician18

If there is one thing that does continue to amaze me, it's the number of new posters joining boards that are vehemently opposed to the restrictions.

And here I was thinking that the site was dying.

Ficheall

stephenjmcd wrote: »

The one bit in the Independent that annoys me,

"But sources in Government Buildings insisted the Irish plan will not contain dates as research shows compliance with restrictions drops when dates are given"

Talk about treating people with disdain, give us something to aim for

I really can't see the benefit of setting dates. They don't have a crystal ball and whatever about the spread of the virus, people's behaviour is definitely unpredictable.


Saying W positivity, X cases, Y hospitalisations, Z ICUs would seem like an easier thing to work towards, and people might feel they were working together towards an end goal. There would still of course be some people claiming "Oh, the gov't are holding back/miscounting/faking numbers so they get to stay on TV", but most people would have some cop on.

caveat emptor

Jim_Hodge wrote: »

It's the quality from him that is his real measure not quantity. Not one for the snide one liner either.

Absolutely. We are not stupid. He is clearly adding to the discussion. More power to him /her .....slash it..lest I offend someone. Arghus could be a cyborg and I'd still be a fangirl. :pac:

Polar101

Ficheall wrote: »

I really can't see the benefit of setting dates. They don't have a crystal ball and whatever about the spread of the virus, people's behaviour is definitely unpredictable.

They could always say "we'll open x by *a date*", if the situation allows it. In December the situation didn't really allow all the opening, but the government had more or less committed to opening, so they didn't have much choice.

But to me, it seems a bit pointless to go with set dates or set case numbers/hospitalisation numbers - the restrictions are unlikely to be relaxed until the situation is good enough. So the end result is going to be pretty much the same, and will be heavily influenced by the number of vaccinations done.

fits

I’m happy enough not to have fixed dates.

In all this clamour for easing are people forgetting what happened at Christmas? All our progress lost in a matter of weeks. Still 150 in ICU now. That’s a crazy figure.

We are on mile 21 I think. Just got to keep going for another short while until vaccines are at critical mass.

WoollyRedHat

Polar101 wrote: »

They could always say "we'll open x by *a date*", if the situation allows it. In December the situation didn't really allow all the opening, but the government had more or less committed to opening, so they didn't have much choice.

But to me, it seems a bit pointless to go with set dates or set case numbers/hospitalisation numbers - the restrictions are unlikely to be relaxed until the situation is good enough. So the end result is going to be pretty much the same, and will be heavily influenced by the number of vaccinations done.

I agree that fixed dates in and of themselves are not the best move, especially when you set them for the likes of hospitality who are dependent on being provided with accurate dates for reopening. In the UK if dates end up being later than the 'earliest dates for reopening' for that sector, that could cost businesses millions.

However, they need to communicate to the public the key performance indicators and metrics for a phased reopening, and say what happens as part of this , for example: saying something along the lines of:

1. 'If hospitalisations, numbers in ICU, positivity rate in the community etc. remain below X for Y number of weeks, we can reopen A,B and C with following provisions'

Or if it's tied into vaccine progress, something like

2. 'By the time all of group n have received their first dose and allowing for x days interval from hitting this target to allow for sufficient protection to this cohort , sectors A and B may gradually start to reopen/ activities X, Y and Z may recommence' and so on, providing the relevant detail if there are limits on capacity etc.

It perhaps will be a hybrid of both of the above.

Surely it is not beyond credibility that the government can offer us something similar to the above by way of communication. They will have to be upfront with strategy and key metrics/targets for reopening at some stage. That gives something for people and businesses to aspire to and also would keep the government and taskforce with something to push on with I.E. so we keep up the pace. If we receive more vaccines in April than is expected this could help accelerate the plan's progression.

I also think the government needs to start the rollout of rapid antigen testing kits in certain sectors as soon as possible. They can be used as a tool for 'living with Covid' and we simply can't PCR test everyone all the time, but we can combine antigen testing with PCR testing. A lot of US-based scientists are now calling for their government to rollout antigen testing.

WoollyRedHat

Ficheall wrote: »

I really can't see the benefit of setting dates. They don't have a crystal ball and whatever about the spread of the virus, people's behaviour is definitely unpredictable.


Saying W positivity, X cases, Y hospitalisations, Z ICUs would seem like an easier thing to work towards, and people might feel they were working together towards an end goal. There would still of course be some people claiming "Oh, the gov't are holding back/miscounting/faking numbers so they get to stay on TV", but most people would have some cop on.

Sorry Ficheall, see you have raised similar point. Something like this surely has to be the foundation of the plan, if it is not, I can't see how it gets sustained buy-in from the public. Of course there has to be some steady state planning built in i.e. if hospital cases are below 100 for X number of days, but this is reasonable.

prunudo

Tough to listen to BBC breakfast this morning with their opening up plans, sounds like a return so some normality very very soon.
Funny though some of Johnson's own Mp's saying its too slow and needs to open up quicker, just proves you'll never keep everyone happy

Doctor Jimbob

AlmightyCushion wrote: »

The reason there won't be dates on the plan is that the dates would be essentially meaningless. It will all depend on what is the situation with Covid in the country at the time. There is no point putting a date on something if you can't know if you are going to be able to hit that date or not. The problem is we don't know what re-opening will look like. We could re-open things and then see cases start rising again or they might not drop at all or drop slower than you were expecting. We seen what happened with the last plan they put dates on, the one before Christmas. When we locked down in October, they thought cases would drop more than they did and when we opened up again cases rose much, much quicker than they were expecting and we ended up with the shít show we are in now. Realistically, the government would have been better off not sticking any dates on the last plan. We could have reopened a bit later than we did, case numbers would likely have been lower when we did reopen and while they still would have exploded over Christmas, the increase would have been later and starting from a lower base.

I can see the logic in not putting dates on anything. The problem is, they're saying this while putting dates on things. They're putting dates on the phased school reopening. Leaking potential restriction easing in May/June/Summer/ whatever comes out of the hat. No review until April. Why? Why are things not being reviewed on a weekly basis at this point? It was the same back at at Christmas. They said they were going to reopen on a certain date, and stubbornly stuck with it despite the rising case numbers. Now they've gone to the other extreme in response. MM has grounded us until the 5th of April because all us naughty children have shown we can't behave ourselves - totally ignoring their own role in the mess around Christmas.

lawred2

giveitholly wrote: »

And now the schools might not be opening next Monday!!!!

What?

prunudo

I didn't hear it myself but I saw other posters reference an interview Matt Cooper had with Prof Staines and Killeen yesterday, seemingly they were full off doom and dismissing any effectiveness of the vaccines, basically saying we'll be in lockdown forever.

Now they've been two of the more pessimistic 'experts' throughout this but it worries me that there may be some people or advisors behind the scenes with similar views who are in the ear of MM and senior ministers.

Azatadine

prunudo wrote: »

I didn't hear it myself but I saw other posters reference an interview Matt Cooper had with Prof Staines and Killeen yesterday, seemingly they were full off doom and dismissing any effectiveness of the vaccines, basically saying we'll be in lockdown forever.

Now they've been two of the more pessimistic 'experts' throughout this but it worries me that there may be some people or advisors behind the scenes with similar views who are in the ear of MM and senior ministers.

The media have a lot of responsibility in this by giving those two plus Ryan and McConkey air time without having a balanced contributor to debate with them. I also think its a terrible, terrible reflection on our education system in that all of these guys are scientific professors but clearly do not follow the science as it has unfolded throughout the last year. They don't seem to read or understand peer reviewed data. Terrible reflection on our education system.

Happydays2020

prunudo wrote: »

I didn't hear it myself but I saw other posters reference an interview Matt Cooper had with Prof Staines and Killeen yesterday, seemingly they were full off doom and dismissing any effectiveness of the vaccines, basically saying we'll be in lockdown forever.

Now they've been two of the more pessimistic 'experts' throughout this but it worries me that there may be some people or advisors behind the scenes with similar views who are in the ear of MM and senior ministers.

I think Christmas has paralysed them. Plus no opposition parties are on the side of easing restrictions. I think they have lost the dressing room - they even bigged up the problem of foreigners and variants, and are now being hit over the head with it as quarantining is not in soon enough (was never easy).

To be fair it is a delicate balancing act. There are still a lot of unknowns in terms of vaccine rollout and it is a dangerous virus. But communications really are terrible - too many voices, too many different opinions, a truly negative and doom loving RTÉ etc etc.

Sweet.Science

How can schools open when society is shut down indefinitely ?

What is going on

Jinglejangle69

lawred2 wrote: »

What?

Donnely had to tweet last night that he lied again.

Talks have concluded with the unions and looks like next week.

Jesus the communication again.

They are way out of their depth.

tom1ie

Can anyone link to the vaccine rollout site (I presume there is one?).
I presume this site will tell us by what date each group of people will have been administered/offered a vaccine in Ireland?

KrustyUCC

The so called plan has been heavily leaked I the examiner

"March will see getting children back to school, the reopening of childcare, and addressing the non-Covid backlog in hospitals as the main priorities;"

"Senior Government sources, speaking to the Irish Examiner, said the lifting of the 5km rule is unlikely before May. This, they said, is partly because the rent eviction moratorium is linked to the 5km rule."

Very convenient for the government
People stuck with 5km rule for 5 months minimum

"Personal services and non-essential retail will not return before April"

They won't before May either

"It will be “much later” into the summer before any relaxation in hospitality is likely and indoor dining is “still in doubt", sources said;"

No hospitality for at least six months of the year
The government instead prefer to keep borrowing billions to keep those industries shut

We won't even be able to sit down with a coffee for six months

No mention of outdoor dining

If we're good we may see golf and tennis and maybe visitors to a garden in April

No dates
No metrics for easing restrictions
No plan really just a review in April after Easter

I'm certainly not going to stay within 5km for 5 months +

While their plan might not come to fruition going to be done change in message from one delivered in the UK to Martin today

Jinglejangle69

5km because of eviction bans???

What sort of nonsense is this??

Doctor Jimbob

KrustyUCC wrote: »

The so called plan has been heavily leaked I the examiner

"March will see getting children back to school, the reopening of childcare, and addressing the non-Covid backlog in hospitals as the main priorities;"

"Senior Government sources, speaking to the Irish Examiner, said the lifting of the 5km rule is unlikely before May. This, they said, is partly because the rent eviction moratorium is linked to the 5km rule."

Very convenient for the government
People stuck with 5km rule for 5 months minimum

"Personal services and non-essential retail will not return before April"

They won't before May either

"It will be “much later” into the summer before any relaxation in hospitality is likely and indoor dining is “still in doubt", sources said;"

No hospitality for at least six months of the year
The government instead prefer to keep borrowing billions to keep those industries shut

We won't even be able to sit down with a coffee for six months

No mention of outdoor dining

If we're good we may see golf and tennis and maybe visitors to a garden in April

No dates
No metrics for easing restrictions
No plan really just a review in April after Easter

I'm certainly not going to stay within 5km for 5 months +

While their plan might not come to fruition going to be done change in message from one delivered in the UK to Martin today

So the plan is there is no plan.

Actually no, on another read, we're back to the September plan of get the schools open and fúck everything else. Which is great for kids and parents. Nothing for the rest of us though.

KrustyUCC

Sweet.Science wrote: »

How can schools open when society is shut down indefinitely ?

What is going on

Society is keeping shut down so schools can return

The education of children is a priority

lawred2

Jesus Christ...

Jinglejangle69

Now I'm reading April the 5th could see easing of some restrictions.

Maybe we should just wait for the announcement.

KrustyUCC

Jinglejangle69 wrote: »

5km because of eviction bans???

What sort of nonsense is this??

Exactly

They're linked the eviction ban to national public health emergency

Once we go over 5km the eviction ban ends

Rather conveniently instead of amending legislation they'll keep the 5km limit until May

KrustyUCC

Jinglejangle69 wrote: »

Now I'm reading April the 5th could see easing of some restrictions.

Maybe we should just wait for the announcement.

Tennis, golf and maybe meeting in a garden

Hardly anything to look forward to if you don't play either sport

Meeting in gardens will be happen well before Easter

Happydays2020

KrustyUCC wrote: »

Exactly

They're linked the eviction ban to national public health emergency

Once we go over 5km the eviction ban ends

Rather conveniently instead of amending legislation they'll keep the 5km limit until May

That linking of the eviction ban to the 5km limit is a classic sign of the policy makers in a bubble. No one is realising how ridiculous it is. Surely they can find another way to protect people for a few more months.

KrustyUCC

Happydays2020 wrote: »

That linking of the eviction ban to the 5km limit is a classic sign of the policy makers in a bubble. No one is realising how ridiculous it is. Surely they can find another way to protect people for a few more months.

To get around property rights they linked the ban to 5km limit

Now they're using the eviction ban to keep in place the 5km limit

Genius from the government