Covid 19 Part XXXII-215,743 ROI (4,137 deaths)111,166 NI (2,036 deaths)(22/02)Read OP

bb1234567

Deleted User wrote: »

It's worth putting numbers in context though.

If you are a small country with 30 deaths in one day, say with a population of 5 million people - then extrapolated out, that's the equivalent of having almost 400 deaths in a country the size of the UK.

And 30 deaths a day here is like having 2,000 deaths a day in the US.

And when we think about it, 30 people a day isn't really that many, so we shouldn't be shocked or surprised when we hear 'large' numbers like 400 or 2,000 a day elsewhere.

And 30 deaths in Ireland is a loss of 0.0006% of the population.

So whilst all 30 deaths are sad in their own right, I think many people lose a sense of perspective with these kinds of figures.

I don't think that's informed perspective at all. 30 deaths daily in excess in Ireland is a pronounced increase upon normal mortality rates considering about 85 people die daily here under normal circumstances.

As for the percentage at the end well it's daily so doesn't tell you anything really. What's the percent if that death rate maintains for months.

Eod100

https://twitter.com/paulcolgan/status/1354471673714647050?s=19

DraftDodger

Wow 1725 deaths in the UK alone today. Absolutely relentless this thing.

caveat emptor

Eod100 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/paulcolgan/status/1354471673714647050?s=19

Great that we can do this when other countries implement restrictions. Obviously no antigen required when coming the other way. Reciprocity should be applied.

muddypuppy

titan18 wrote: »

You'd imagine that will be next week then at the current decrease rate

I'm willing to bet that it could be even this week, the average will be below 1500 with today the only day crossing it.

I don't understand that article at all to be honest, feels like something has been left out like "14 days average" or something. It's pretty weird to put out an article saying "cases needs to be below X" when they have already been below X.

ninebeanrows

High quality instant testing would be such a game changer!

If every school kid does an antigen test every week etc.

It would seriously reduce the risk

BorneTobyWilde

How you vaccinate for it to be the best at stopping the spread is still unknown. Vaccinating healthcare workers all over the country, and those most at risk, v Vaccinating a hot spot. WHo knows

Lets say there are 60,000 people in Dublin with covid, and 500 are healthcare workers, and we have 60,000 jabs, do we vaccinate the 500 healthcare workers, and use the 59500 vaccines for rest of country to vaccinate people in the middle of nowhere, but ''on paper are most at risk.'' Or vaccinate the hotspot, and stop the spread.

muddypuppy

Eod100 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/paulcolgan/status/1354471673714647050?s=19

Since when Ireland approved antigen/"rapid" tests? As far as I know those are considered 100% worthless here (legally speaking).

bb1234567

Mexico City has reported the highest death rate on earth - 0.61%(1 in every 165 people) of the region's population has died in excess between March and the end of December. Twice as high death rate as New York city or Lombardy.
https://twitter.com/CovidSerology/status/1351227178759892993

Pwindedd

The HorsesMouth wrote: »

Just a thought as I sit here with three small children wondering what to do with them for the next 5 weeks.
Isn't it very easy for governments and scientist's and nphet to tell everyone to "hold firm" at the moment.
They are busy meeting people, taking questions, coming up with (nonsense) strategies, and generally working away. At a very basic level, the day passes by quick for them.
While most of us plebs sit here looking at the clock, no outlet, no meeting different people, trying to entertain small children, playing the same games, watching the same kids tv programmes and reassure them we will see granny and grandad again, wondering could we walk around the same block without our heads melting from boredom etc.
I feel that they are so out of touch with the reality of daily life for so many in lockdown.
And instead of giving hope they keep knocking back any optimism that keeps the normal joe soap going.

This very thought went through my head while out on my walk with the dog just now. I would really hope that someone in the room is looking at all this from a perspective that spans the full spectrum of socioeconomic status when decisions are being made. I don't for one minute that believe that everyone involved in decision making lives in the lap of luxury but I'd say a fair few of them are very comfortable and it's quite easy to say "ahh sure what's another five weeks" when you are working from your study and have a nice front and back garden to enjoy and a nice warm home to shelter in.
(Most days when it's cold I work in a hoodie and bobble hat, being very selective about when I put the heating on - today is a good day no hat required)

I feel for the numerous people in house-shares working from their bedrooms as that's the only quiet space. It must feel like a cell!

Or the families who are living in apartments, too small for their needs at the best of times, while they save for something bigger. Especially if these plans are pushed even further into the future because of having to claim PUP/TWSS etc

The single parents of children who may be over 18 but are just not quite old enough to be considered a shoulder to cry on or a source of support to a single parent. No support bubble allowed for them.

The list goes on and on...

HOLD FIRM, STAY SAFE may be the message, and most of us are doing our very best, but I really don't blame anyone for breaking the 5km limit, or finding an excuse to get out of the house and go for a drive to do some "recycling" or whatever.

Yes there are selfish pricks taking the mick - they were always there and they always will be. What I'm really struggling with is the almost puritanical judgement of others and the complete lack of empathy and understanding - we are all just trying to get through this with our sanity intact.

My hopes are pinned on the weather at the moment. When it's dry i get out and about as much as possible. When it's wet, I get stuck into a boxset or a book - I'm really looking forward to brighter evenings and warmer days. I've decided this year to rely on the great outdoors for my entertainment - picnics, discovering new walks, and drinks in the park etc - things that can't be taken away from me again. Become self sufficient for my fun.

Turtwig

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

How you vaccinate for it to be the best at stopping the spread is still unknown. Vaccinating healthcare workers all over the country, and those most at risk, v Vaccinating a hot spot. WHo knows

Lets say there are 60,000 people in Dublin with covid, and 500 are healthcare workers, and we have 60,000 jabs, do we vaccinate the 500 healthcare workers, and use the 59500 vaccines for rest of country to vaccinate people in the middle of nowhere, but ''on paper are most at risk.'' Or vaccinate the hotspot, and stop the spread.

Covid is pretty much everywhere so this scenario doesn't really apply. If it did however you make the judgement call based on whether intensive vaccination in Dublin would suppress the spread more than a nationwide general widely dispersed vaccinated. If the disease was heavily concentrated in Dublin and you were confident that transmission outside Dublin hadn't really occurred you would pour all resources into Dublin to keep things that way. That would include vaccination and restrictions.

For smallpox, they would identify the individuals infected and then vaccinate their surrounding social contacts and neighbourhoods.

caveat emptor

muddypuppy wrote: »

Since when Ireland approved antigen/"rapid" tests? As far as I know those are considered 100% worthless here (legally speaking).

If it's a requirement to enter France then it has some sort of worth whatever we think. If only by the virtue that you can access French markets for export, which we do.

niallo27

bb1234567 wrote: »

I don't think that's informed perspective at all. 30 deaths daily in excess in Ireland is a pronounced increase upon normal mortality rates considering about 85 people die daily here under normal circumstances.

As for the percentage at the end well it's daily so doesn't tell you anything really. What's the percent if that death rate maintains for months.

In excess, why would you assume these deaths are in excess. Our excess deaths have been similar to other years so far so to assume all these 30 deaths are excess would be wrong.

Gruffalux

Eod100 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/paulcolgan/status/1354471673714647050?s=19

I thought this sort of thing was delusionally unpossible because it would cause a famine and teotwawki chaos ..

ginoginelli

caveat emptor wrote: »

Great that we can do this when other countries implement restrictions. Obviously no antigen required when coming the other way. Reciprocity should be applied.

So fecking typical. They are only doing this after the French insisted on it. A pretty useless measure for us if we are not testing them coming in.

Shower of wasters in charge.

Martina1991

muddypuppy wrote: »

Since when Ireland approved antigen/"rapid" tests? As far as I know those are considered 100% worthless here (legally speaking).

Ireland haven't.

Rocdoc is a private company. They're selling them to lorry drivers because France require them.

It doesn't make them any more accurate.

coastwatch

froog wrote: »

on the global front we are seeing the first actual drop in daily cases since the very start of the pandemic. (leaving aside the short christmas dip where less testing overall would have been going on).

Maybe down to a level 5 or travel restrictions around the world?

landofthetree

https://twitter.com/RiochtConor2/status/1354487080374722566

bodhrandude

Is there a briefing or a press release with case numbers today?

fred funk }{

landofthetree wrote: »

https://twitter.com/RiochtConor2/status/1354487080374722566

Great graph and really shows the importance of not over analysing numbers daily but over a period of time.

Eod100

John McGuinness FF backbench TD promoting zero covid on Drivetime on RTE radio 1 there. Wonder if it will gain any more support?

As time goes on government might slowly come around to the idea of mandatory quarantine for more people once it's set up to try and keep cases as low as possible to open society and avoid importing anymore new variants.

Eod100

bodhrandude wrote: »

Is there a briefing or a press release with case numbers today?

No briefing this evening, should be usual one tomorrow. Cases not officially confirmed yet but should be out soon.

ninebeanrows

The UK could have the entire population given the first does by the middle of April!

They are going to have a booming summer

Rezident

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

Leo's comments today were utterly moronic in the extreme and honestly should not be taken seriously by anybody. Not even because of any specific factors, just more generally because between the three of them - Leo, Mehole and Donnelly - they have been continuously making contradictory statements not just refuting eachothers' statements but also changing their own stance from whatever they said even a week ago. This has been ongoing for months.

There's only one takeaway one needs to be aware of when anyone in this government makes a statement, and that is that they haven't a f*cking clue what they're doing, what's going on, what the plan is or how they're going to achieve it.

That's terrifying in the context of what's going on, obviously. The wheels have entirely come off the wagon and we are essentially a headless chicken of a state right now. But it should also allow people to maintain some hope and optimism, for the simple reason that it works both ways - whenever they've made positive statements, yes, those have tended to be refuted only days later. But the same holds true for negative statements such as today's f*cking lunacy about Christmas 2021. Give it a few days and the message will change.

I'm a weather enthusiast and anyone who's ever followed the weather forum on Boards will know of a term we use - Fantasy Island. It refers to the period of time beyond 120 hours, at which point the computer models which crunch the numbers regarding the current weather trends and produce the charts showing what future days will be like in terms of weather, become inaccurate to the point of being almost entirely useless for talking about anything other than potential outcomes. In other words, when you look at a weather chart for say six days away, what you see on the chart is what could come to pass, but it is literally a coin toss as to whether it will. Beyond that, say ten or fifteen days? It's worse than a coin toss. Maybe twenty coin tosses in a row level predictability.

Government statements are like that at the moment. Hell, they can't even be certain as to what's going to happen in February with regard to schools reopening. Anything they tell us about what's going to happen in six months should be regarded in the same way as those of us who follow the weather regard charts telling us what's going to happen in six days - fiction.

That's it. There's nothing more to it. What's going to happen months from now is anybody's guess and Leo & co are being flagrantly irresponsible making statements like these. It will destroy peoples' mental health, it will destroy economic confidence, it will almost certainly erode compliance with restrictions and social distancing as nihilism sets in. But that only happens if we all forget the central truth in all of this, which is that the triumvirate of tools running the country at the moment are a group of muppets who are running their mouths and haven't the faintest clue what they're talking about.

In every other context, that's a terrifying thing to realise about this crisis (or indeed just normal day to day life in a democratic country!) but in this particular case, when they're making statements like these which are causing people to lose hope, it should be reassuring. Before you panic and allow the depression to set in, just stop for a moment and remember that you're basing your mental health on the word of a man who's told us that there'll be no concerts in summer 2021, literally a fortnight after he told us he was extremely optimistic about there being concerts in summer 2021.

Stay strong, folks. Please don't base your mental state on the brain farts of an incompetent leader.

Excellent post and I think you are absolutely right.

Sadly a lot of people will be upset by the government's ridiculous comments today, but you are right, they have not got a clue about a few months out. We must try to remember that.

ninebeanrows

I would recommend those with NI numbers to head to the UK later this Spring

I will certainty be looking for my number from years ago

Loafing Oaf

Eod100 wrote: »

John McGuinness FF backbench TD promoting zero covid on Drivetime on RTE radio 1 there.

He's a one-man awkward squad. If Micheal Martin was pushing hard for a united Ireland he'd be saying we should rejoin the UK...

kilkenny31

Eod100 wrote: »

John McGuinness FF backbench TD promoting zero covid on Drivetime on RTE radio 1 there. Wonder if it will gain any more support?

As time goes on government might slowly come around to the idea of mandatory quarantine for more people once it's set up to try and keep cases as low as possible to open society and avoid importing anymore new variants.

I think zero covid is next to impossible at this stage. We would be months in a hard lockdown trying to get to the stage where there was no Covid in the community.

Eod100

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

He's a one-man awkward squad. If Micheal Martin was pushing hard for a united Ireland he'd be saying we should rejoin the UK...

There's definitely a bit of that no doubt.

Golfman64

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

The UK could have the entire population given the first does by the middle of April!

They are going to have a booming summer

Impressive. Ryanair and Aer Lingus need to relocate their fleets to the UK for the summer season and leave us to bicker, begrudge and crawl our way through this twitching every curtain in the house!

0gac3yjefb5sv7

Golfman64 wrote: »

Impressive. Ryanair and Aer Lingus need to relocate their fleets to the UK for the summer season and leave us to bicker, begrudge and crawl our way through this twitching every curtain in the house!

What protection does the first dose provide vs the 2nd top up one 30 days later?