Covid 19 Part XXXII-215,743 ROI (4,137 deaths)111,166 NI (2,036 deaths)(22/02)Read OP

Happydays2020

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I'm far more interested in the creation of a COVID spy network.

For instance, hire Brazilian spies to spy on what is happening in the community; social media etc.; and report it to the authorities before these spreader events take place. Those found guilty of breaching the guidelines are jailed for at least 14-days, and allowed back into the community if a negative PCR test is produced. Repeat offenders are deported.

A permanent ban on Brazilians and Portuguese people from entering the country.

Furthermore, a database must be created for any undocumented Brazilians in the country, who must be asked to prove their status. In time, they can be deported from the country.

They are generally a young and lax community and robust law enforcement must be applied disproportionately to those more likely to increase the spread of the virus.

You would do well in Russia or East Germany in the 1980’s or perhaps even Berlin in the amid 1930’s.

Plumbthedepths

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

It doesnt matter what the variant is! It was spread due to local interactions and lax restrictions.

If the Bundoran variant was dominant like the UK variant it would be the Bundoran variant that would be spreading

A virus variant being more dominant does not mean it is more transmissable

Ah but the Bundoran variant wouldn't allow you deflect from government failure and vilify passengers at Dublin airport.

Plumbthedepths

Happydays2020 wrote: »

You would do well in Russia or East Germany in the 1980’s or perhaps even Berlin in the amid 1930’s.

Is it not sarcasm?

Happydays2020

Happydays2020 wrote: »

You would do well in Russia or East Germany in the 1980’s or perhaps even Berlin in the amid 1930’s.

That is just one community.

If the same reality exists elsewhere in other communities, then by all means extend these rules to those too.

We cannot have a weak approach to this. Either the guidelines are followed or they are not. This weak approach to borders and security is shocking.

There must be a more hardened approach that respects the effort of the 90% of people who are following the rules.

That 10% must be policed heavily. There is nothing "1930s" about my suggestions; it is merely about trying to prevent the unnecessary and avoidable spread of a virus at a critical time in the pandemic.

Happydays2020

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

Is it not sarcasm?

I would hope so. But some of the views around here over the last few days would really make me wonder.

Edit - it seems from post immediately above the suggestion was genuine.

TonyMaloney

Happydays2020 wrote: »

So please correct me. What are the basic facts? What will Zero Covid mean (and I think we should benchmark this against New Zealand’s approach).

Zero covid does not mean zero covid. It actually means getting as close to zero community transmission as possible, and using your infrastructure to stamp out any cases that arise.
How you get to zero community transmission is up to the public health team, but to say it necessarily involves curfews etc is false.
And to say it will last until May is also false. It could be much, much faster than that.

As for the argument that it will need to last for a year, well I've yet to hear any justification for that other than Leo's "we wouldn't want to open up for Christmas travel into the country (again)".
But of course at some point within that year, travel could potentially open up to Australia, NZ, Vietnam etc etc, and any other country or region that adopted a similar strategy.

At the moment we run the risk of having zero covid imposed on us at some point, as we're riddled with the strain from Britain, and most likely have the Brazilian and SA strains competing here too.
And even if that doesn't happen, our current strategy shares many of the same downsides to ZC and **** all of the upsides.

Happydays2020

Happydays2020 wrote: »

I would hope so. But some of the views around here over the last few days would really make me wonder.

There is nothing sarcastic in my attempts to develop realistic and fair ways and means to prevent avoidable spread of the virus.

The same is true for the traveller community, too - who should not be allowed mass funeral events under ANY circumstances!

Happydays2020

TonyMaloney wrote: »

Zero covid does not mean zero covid. It actually means getting as close to zero community transmission as possible, and using your infrastructure to stamp out any cases that arise.
How you get to zero community transmission is up to the public health team, but to say it necessarily involves curfews etc is false.
And to say it will last until May is also false. It could be much, much faster than that.

As for the argument that it will need to last for a year, well I've yet to hear any justification for that other than Leo's "we wouldn't want to open up for Christmas travel into the country (again)".
But of course at some point within that year, travel could potentially open up to Australia, NZ, Vietnam etc etc, and any other country or region that adopted a similar strategy.

At the moment we run the risk of having zero covid imposed on us at some point, as we're riddled with the strain from Britain, and most likely have the Brazilian and SA strains competing here too.
And even if that doesn't happen, our current strategy shares many of the same downsides to ZC and **** all of the upsides.

What happened in Melbourne from August to November? From a far smaller base.

Plumbthedepths

Happydays2020 wrote: »

What happened in Melbourne from August to November? From a far smaller base.

Ssssh.

is_that_so

TonyMaloney wrote: »

Zero covid does not mean zero covid. It actually means getting as close to zero community transmission as possible, and using your infrastructure to stamp out any cases that arise.
How you get to zero community transmission is up to the public health team, but to say it necessarily involves curfews etc is false.
And to say it will last until May is also false. It could be much, much faster than that.

As for the argument that it will need to last for a year, well I've yet to hear any justification for that other than Leo's "we wouldn't want to open up for Christmas travel into the country (again)".
But of course at some point within that year, travel could potentially open up to Australia, NZ, Vietnam etc etc, and any other country or region that adopted a similar strategy.

At the moment we run the risk of having zero covid imposed on us at some point, as we're riddled with the strain from Britain, and most likely have the Brazilian and SA strains competing here too.
And even if that doesn't happen, our current strategy shares many of the same downsides to ZC and **** all of the upsides.

Its weakness is that it is completely open-ended and a four week review cycle is a better regular opportunity to adjust. It could be May or earlier is just not a credible approach when it really means until the plan says so.

TonyMaloney

Happydays2020 wrote: »

What happened in Melbourne from August to November? From a far smaller base.

You tell me. I guess they, unlike many of their counterparts, struggled to get their **** together for a while.

Plumbthedepths

[Deleted User] wrote: »

There is nothing sarcastic in my attempts to develop realistic and fair ways and means to prevent avoidable spread of the virus.

The same is true for the traveller community, too - who should not be allowed mass funeral events under ANY circumstances!

Will you be volunteering your services to point out the errors of their ways at the next traveller funeral? ( We're gonna need another coffin)

TonyMaloney

is_that_so wrote: »

Its weakness is that it is completely open-ended and a four week review cycle is a better regular opportunity to adjust. It could be May or earlier is just not a credible approach when it really means until the plan says so.

Are you lads not aware of what's going on right now where you live?

We're looking at a lockdown from late December to early March at the earliest, followed by harsh restrictions for god knows how long.

Doctor Jimbob

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

Ah but the Bundoran variant wouldn't allow you deflect from government failure and vilify passengers at Dublin airport.

Could have people flying in from Donegal airport in fairness.

Golfman64

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2021/0128/1193545-virus-vaccine/

RTE must be so disappointed with this news. Literally salivating at the hope vaccines would not work against the new variants. They couldn’t help but turn the second half of the article negative and try and suggest otherwise.

Similarly noticed a zero Covid article in their site which didn’t discuss any of the downsides to the approach.

TonyMaloney

UrbanFret wrote: »

Zero Covid. What a fantasy!
Yesterdays antics in Carrick on Shannon should have ended the zero Covid argument forever.

UrbanFret wrote: »

Funeral with up to 300 mourners, no masks, no social distancing no respect for anyone or anything .

That's a good argument for zero covid

is_that_so

TonyMaloney wrote: »

Are you lads not aware of what's going on right now where you live?

We're looking at a lockdown from late December to early March at the earliest, followed by harsh restrictions for god knows how long.

We know there will be a review in 4-6 weeks, your proposal has no dates, just a target. Varadkar is already talking about Level 4 for March. It may be spoofing, it may not happen but it is what we can do with our strategy.

Plumbthedepths

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

Could have people flying in from Donegal airport in fairness.

So it would be the Donegal airport variant, no?

TonyMaloney

is_that_so wrote: »

We know there will be a review in 4-6 weeks, your proposal has no dates, just a target. Varadkar is already talking about Level 4 for March. It may be spoofing, it may not happen but it is what we can do with our strategy.

Using arbitrary dates to reopen rather than basing it on data is a big part of the reason we're in this mess.
It's not a plus that mendacious idiots can jeopardise our livelihoods and health because various lobby groups won't stop ringing them.

is_that_so

TonyMaloney wrote: »

Using arbitrary dates to reopen rather than basing it on data is a big part of the reason we're in this mess.
It's not a plus that mendacious idiots can jeopardise our livelihoods and health because various lobby groups won't stop ringing them.

That possible Level 4 seems based on data on the likely number of cases then. ZERO COVID will never do that.

mohawk

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Pharmaceutical companies should have been funded to expand manufacturing and put on a war-style footing from summer last year - under the assumption that one or more of the vaccines would be approved. Everything should have been laser-focussed on this kind of mass manufacture, both internally and externally.

That way, mass manufacture of vaccines would already be well underway - without these needless delays.

Better to have taken the risk on the side of science, than have to deal with the situation we now find ourselves in.

This was entirely avoidable.

I have posted before about how this is easier said than done.

The manufacturing equipment is usually custom built using high grade materials. Anything being injected directly into humans needs to be manufactured in a sterile environment so that means building clean rooms. Everything from the equipment used to the process, materials must be tested to prove to the regulatory authorities that a safe, consistent product can be manufactured in that facility. Then of course you need staff and they have to be trained in every aspect of the job even if you are getting them from another pharmaceutical.

Also these companies are making many other products that are needed by their patients so they can’t just convert all their capacity to producing the vaccine. (Even if they could the manufacturing process can vary so much that the equipment used for product A can’t be used to make product b).

TonyMaloney

is_that_so wrote: »

That possible Level 4 seems based on data on the likely number of cases then. ZERO COVID will never do that.

We don't have local data on how the new variant will do under restrictions akin to our level 4.
All we can do is look to places like Kent, where under restrictions closer to our level 5, the virus thrived.

You'll have to forgive me for sneering at the thought of being positive about being able to try the exact same thing we've continuously failed to do all over again.

is_that_so

TonyMaloney wrote: »

We don't have local data on how the new variant will do under restrictions akin to our level 4.
All we can do is look to places like Kent, where under restrictions closer to our level 5, the virus thrived.

You'll have to forgive me for sneering at the thought of being positive about being able to try the exact same thing we've continuously failed to do all over again.

B.1.1.7 will do its worst. If it affects things we'll adjust. TBH you seem to be locked in a 2020 time warp here. Restrictive measures are no longer the only tool. From March we will have a lot more vaccines.

mohawk

mohawk wrote: »

I have posted before about how this is easier said than done.

The manufacturing equipment is usually custom built using high grade materials. Anything being injected directly into humans needs to be manufactured in a sterile environment so that means building clean rooms. Everything from the equipment used to the process, materials must be tested to prove to the regulatory authorities that a safe, consistent product can be manufactured in that facility. Then of course you need staff and they have to be trained in every aspect of the job even if you are getting them from another pharmaceutical.

Also these companies are making many other products that are needed by their patients so they can’t just convert all their capacity to producing the vaccine. (Even if they could the manufacturing process can vary so much that the equipment used for product A can’t be used to make product b).

I grant that it's a complex process and not like manufacturing cornflakes.

That said, surely SOMETHING could have been done in the past 6-months?

Some sort of anticipatory preparation.

TonyMaloney

Here's what happened in Kent. A well observed national lockdown starting in early November.
Pubs, restaurants and non-essential retail shut. Strict household rules. Schools open. It barely worked at all.

If we move to even lighter restrictions than those in Kent, it's a big risk.

snotboogie

Happydays2020 wrote: »

So please correct me. What are the basic facts? What will Zero Covid mean (and I think we should benchmark this against New Zealand’s approach).

You are stating as a fact that a curfew and more measures will be needed:

Happydays2020 wrote: »

It means moving up a level from where we are now including curfews

There is no such hard requirement. More strict measures will accelerate the drop in new cases. However that doesn't mean that more strict measures are absolutely required. We could stay with the restrictions we have now and still achieve zero covid. It would just take longer.

Happydays2020 wrote: »

That stricter level will apply until at least May

If you take even one second to listen to the zero covid advocates, they repeatedly drive home the need to look at cases and not timelines. You cannot say stricter measures will be in place until "at least May" the goals would be set in cases per day, not in months of lockdown. How long it took would depend on the measures taken to drive down cases. Most estimates are that we could get to below 10 cases per day long before May if we stuck to our current measures, probably sometime at the start of April.

funnydoggy

Need to get a few bits for college. Anyone know - are Easons open? It says so on google but it may be outdated info.

Happydays2020

Happydays2020 wrote: »

What happened in Melbourne from August to November? From a far smaller base.

How is melbourne going now?

Drumpot

TonyMaloney wrote: »

Using arbitrary dates to reopen rather than basing it on data is a big part of the reason we're in this mess.
It's not a plus that mendacious idiots can jeopardise our livelihoods and health because various lobby groups won't stop ringing them.

Here’s a quote from the doomsday clock scientists that will continue to be ignored

Rachel Bronson, president and chief executive of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, cited the ongoing coronavirus pandemic as one of the reasons for this year's count, saying: "We recognise that humanity continues to suffer as the Covid-19 pandemic spreads around the world.

"The pandemic revealed just how unprepared and unwilling countries and the international system are to handle global emergencies properly.

We haven’t just been continually unprepared but consistently unwilling to do what we can to give ourselves the best chance during this crisis. We are destined to repeat our mistakes of past because that’s what humanity does.

Who has adapted best during the crisis? Seems like Australia and New Zealand have done pretty good. But we have focused on why we can’t do what they have done instead of doing anything different or tried a longer term strategy.

The mentality of our population has been rigid and unwilling to concede much of what we enjoy. You need only look at how we acted when lockdowns were lowered. We as a society have not been able to get our heads around this and adapt and are suffering badly as a result.

Some will take that as an attack, it’s not, it’s an observation. We can’t fix our problems by refusing to look at our role in the state we are in. People’s behaviors are the major driver of spread, you can’t keep blaming everything else.

I’ve watched many science shows and the idea that humanity will probably end up killing itself comes up a lot. I don’t think people realise how self destructive human behavior is and during the pandemic our collective desire to not adapt has been destructive at managing it.

seamus

TonyMaloney wrote: »

Here's what happened in Kent. A well observed national lockdown starting in early November.

I'm not sure you can say it was "well observed" based solely on mobility data.

Businesses can be closed by law. Homes can't.

We already know that the primary driver for infections is household mixing. In the mobility data it's not possible to separate "people staying at home" from "people going into eachother's homes".

The lockdown in Kent in November wasn't lighter than what we have now.

But the social landscape was different.