Covid 19 Part XXXII-215,743 ROI (4,137 deaths)111,166 NI (2,036 deaths)(22/02)Read OP

polesheep

TonyMaloney wrote: »

Right. I thought so.
So I repeat, the numbers we have suggests that would be an absolute ****ing disaster for our hospitals.

So you don't believe that we could begin to open up? That we would have to remain in level 5?

Our hospitals will be fine.

caveat emptor

Coybig_ wrote: »

You are so wrong, yet so confident. Incredible.

In what way are the results predictable? You are talking complete and utter rubbish.

We have had 198 deaths of age 64 and younger with 165 having underlying conditions.

198 deaths from 163,208 cases. That's .001 percent of cases of this age group ending in death.

163,208 cases is 86.7 percent of all cases.

So from the 86.7 percent of cases,that percentage of people have seen .001 percent death rate.

24,883 cases over 65 (including 80 of no age listed). 2506 deaths.

That 13.3 percent of cases accounts for 92.6 percent of deaths.

10 percent of all over 65 who are infected die.

Once the vulnerable and over 65s are vaccinated the threat of death to the remainder of the population group would be greater on the roads of Ireland than from Covid.

Nice stats.

Couple of things its not 0.001 percent. 198 / 163,208 = .001 which is 0.1 % actually. I think you forgot to multiply by one hundred before calling it a percent.

Any way doesn't sound like much but to take this stat and apply to the rest of the population leads to a big number.

There's an estimated 4.24 million people left in that <65 category. Multiplying by that small 0.1% leads to an upper limit total deaths to 4240 deaths.

Small relatively but that's what you are looking at FYI. So I'm not sure hospitals could deal with the level of death or morbidity.

patnor1011

Coybig_ wrote: »

https://m.jpost.com/israel-news/israel-shows-promising-results-from-pfizer-vaccination-campaign-657051

Way too early to be optimistic. Way too early.

is_that_so

Deleted User wrote: »

While I would tend to agree with you, I did hear a disconcerting interview on Times radio in the UK this morning with a member of SAGE who could not confirm that there won’t have to be a full lockdown next winter because they don’t actually know yet if immunity from the current wave of vaccinations will last that long. More work is needed before they know how long they last

It's important to remind ourselves that, in January 2021, all of them know about as much as we do about December next. Few of them are as crafty as our own CMO in fending off media questions and many of them just love to guess and seemingly reveal unseen government plans.

landofthetree

https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1355835797090541568

Charles Babbage

polesheep wrote: »

So you don't believe that we could begin to open up? That we would have to remain in level 5?

Our hospitals will be fine.

Over half the people in ICU are under 65. You could reduce deaths and still have bunged hospitals.

lawred2

landofthetree wrote: »

https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1355835797090541568

All that's missing is a Dunkirk reference

The HorsesMouth

Everyone saying we should open up after 65 and over are vaccinated maybe just have a look at these figures:

Im ignoring the 0-24 age group here because the hospital and death figures are so low.
But in the 25 to 65 age group here are the stats:

Cases: 114635
Deaths: 198
Percentage rate: 0.17%

If we were to open up completely and let people get on with no protection here's what we could end up with with the same death rate.

Population of 25-65 year olds is 2598000. Say for argument sake half these people get it with no restrictions in place. Thats 1299000 people. If you put the cases to deaths ratio as above that would leave 2208 people between the ages of 25-65 dead.

I understand its hypothetical and who knows if even half would get it or would more get it.
But it's food for thought. I want things to open up same as everyone else but with those stats I can understand why those in power would be reluctant..

Plumbthedepths

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Its something like 25% of irish adults are obese....this is an underlying causing vunerable condition for covid

Sounds like a good reason to loose weight.

hotmail.com

landofthetree wrote: »

https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1355835797090541568

Ireland has spent the last year comparing ourselves to Britain and America, and comparing ourselves in a favourable light.

We're worse than Britain when it comes to comparisons when it suits us.

Tyrone212

patnor1011 wrote: »

Since when? Only very recently and they did without them for most of the time last year. That, with third world countries like most of the Africa without restrictions and even functioning health system clearly contradict your doom prediction.

So many absolute thickos were saying all Summer but but sweden has no restrictions. They've had loads since last Spring. You didn't even know that. My god.

hynesie08

landofthetree wrote: »

https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1355835797090541568

And yet, despite a months head start, they probably won't be finished before any other country......

AdamD

The HorsesMouth wrote: »

Everyone saying we should open up after 65 and over are vaccinated maybe just have a look at these figures:

Im ignoring the 0-24 age group here because the hospital and death figures are so low.
But in the 25 to 65 age group here are the stats:

Cases: 114635
Deaths: 198
Percentage rate: 0.17%

If we were to open up completely and let people get on with no protection here's what we could end up with with the same death rate.

Population of 25-65 year olds is 2598000. Say for argument sake half these people get it with no restrictions in place. Thats 1299000 people. If you put the cases to deaths ratio as above that would leave 2208 people between the ages of 25-65 dead.

I understand its hypothetical and who knows if even half would get it or would more get it.
But it's food for thought. I want things to open up same as everyone else but with those stats I can understand why those in power would be reluctant..

All of these hypotheticals ignore that we had relatively iight restrictions last summer and the virus didn't run wild. Its seems completely reasonable to reduce restrictions from April onwards, with low case numbers and vaccinations increasing all of the time.

Level 4/level 5 until September just is not a runner

BorneTobyWilde

If Mehole Marty got on phone to Boris to supply Ireland with vaccines then the UK would step up to help us. All he has to do is make that call, and then Boris would see that we get extra supply, supply that doesn't effect UKs supply.
Uk have lots, all sitting there waiting for people, they could easily give Ireland 7000 doses per week.

AdamD

hotmail.com wrote: »

Ireland has spent the last year comparing ourselves to Britain and America, and comparing ourselves in a favourable light.

We're worse than Britain when it comes to comparisons when it suits us.

The British are going to rewrite history on covid quite nicely by the looks of things. Even if the Brits and US manage to vaccinate everyone a couple of months before us they will still have over twice our deaths per capita.

SCOOP 64

Wow that twitter post as touch a few nerves on here.

Plumbthedepths

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

If Mehole Marty got on phone to Boris to supply Ireland with vaccines then the UK would step up to help us. All he has to do is make that call, and then Boris would see that we get extra supply, supply that doesn't effect UKs supply.
Uk have lots, all sitting there waiting for people, they could easily give Ireland 7000 doses per week.

I suspect this will happen as the UK won't want a well of virus on their doorstep particularly due to the CTA and shared border.

Happydays2020

lawred2 wrote: »

All that's missing is a Dunkirk reference

To be fair to the Brits, I don’t think any other country can present such a horrendous defeat into a victory.

lawred2

The HorsesMouth wrote: »

Everyone saying we should open up after 65 and over are vaccinated maybe just have a look at these figures:

Im ignoring the 0-24 age group here because the hospital and death figures are so low.
But in the 25 to 65 age group here are the stats:

Cases: 114635
Deaths: 198
Percentage rate: 0.17%

If we were to open up completely and let people get on with no protection here's what we could end up with with the same death rate.

Population of 25-65 year olds is 2598000. Say for argument sake half these people get it with no restrictions in place. Thats 1299000 people. If you put the cases to deaths ratio as above that would leave 2208 people between the ages of 25-65 dead.

I understand its hypothetical and who knows if even half would get it or would more get it.
But it's food for thought. I want things to open up same as everyone else but with those stats I can understand why those in power would be reluctant..

Why stop at 50%? Why not 80% infected? 100% infected?

For argument sake!

is_that_so

landofthetree wrote: »

https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1355835797090541568

Overall, more than 7.8 million people have now received a first dose of a vaccine, but only 470,000 people have had a second. It'll stay that way for quite a bit.
For comparison that's 6% with 2nd shots for them and 9% for us.

hynesie08

SCOOP 64 wrote: »

Wow that twitter post as touch a few nerves on here.

Yes, the idea of the uk having any sort of moral high ground is hilarious, no where has gotten it right, but nowhere has been the dumpster fire that is the uk.

BorneTobyWilde

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

I suspect this will happen as the UK won't want a well of virus on their doorstep particularly die to the CTA and shared border.

But he hasn't made the call, while 60 people a day here die. No excuse not to try, yet he hasn't.

hotmail.com

AdamD wrote: »

The British are going to rewrite history on covid quite nicely by the looks of things. Even if the Brits and US manage to vaccinate everyone a couple of months before us they will still have over twice our deaths per capita.

There we go again with comparisons with Britain again .

Irish people can be cringey, surely we should compare ourselves with similar countries to our own.

hynesie08

is_that_so wrote: »

Overall, more than 7.8 million people have now received a first dose of a vaccine, but only 470,000 people have had a second. It'll stay that way for quite a bit.

Meanwhile, we've second jabbed nearly 10% of our vaccinated, despite one less vaccine and the supposed shackles of the EU..... Not bad.

polesheep

Charles Babbage wrote: »

Over half the people in ICU are under 65. You could reduce deaths and still have bunged hospitals.

And the vast majority of those are in the vulnerable cohort. I have clearly stated that once over 65 AND vulnerable are vaccinated we should begin to open up. If anyone outside of those groups is fearful they should restrict their movements until they get a vaccine.

hotmail.com

Michael Martin just said on the radio that an announcement on the LC will be made this week.

He appeared to imply the exams won't happen. That was my impression.

polesheep

lawred2 wrote: »

Why stop at 50%? Why not 80% infected? 100% infected?

For argument sake!

Your figures include the vulnerable but the vulnerable will be vaccinated.

Apologies lawred, my reply was meant for the post you replied to.

Gruffalux

polesheep wrote: »

And the vast majority of those are in the vulnerable cohort. I have clearly stated that once over 65 AND vulnerable are vaccinated we should begin to open up. If anyone outside of those groups is fearful they should restrict their movements until they get a vaccine.

And in this scenario what do we do with the vulnerable and over 65 if there is a variant that needs a booster shot for vaccination to be effective? (Which there already is...hence the vaccine manufacturers making booster shots already)
Do we shut down again until that next vaccination drive is over? And so on.

Happydays2020

polesheep wrote: »

And the vast majority of those are in the vulnerable cohort. I have clearly stated that once over 65 AND vulnerable are vaccinated we should begin to open up. If anyone outside of those groups is fearful they should restrict their movements until they get a vaccine.

The economy will start opening up. It will not be fully open but the narrative will change when cases are down, over 65’s and at risk are vaccinated and at that point in time hospital cases will have reduced. There is a panic at the moment but that will soon lift - on the 28th of Feb (4 weeks) things will be different.

hotmail.com

hotmail.com wrote: »

Michael Martin just said on the radio that an announcement on the LC will be made this week.

He appeared to imply the exams won't happen. That was my impression.

Does anyone actually still think that they will happen?