Covid 19 Part XXXII-215,743 ROI (4,137 deaths)111,166 NI (2,036 deaths)(22/02)Read OP

IAMAMORON

I already pay my taxes.

Now you want me to siphon through the e-mails of 2 of my most senior employees in the hope of scraping out something controversial?

Sorry I have things to be doing to be honest.

leahyl

is_that_so wrote: »

Mathematical modelling is not the same thing. They have the data, probably a whole lot more than the person who made that claim.

Fair enough, still don't see why they can't aim for this zero covid - we're constantly hearing that we can't close the country to international travel, it's getting a bit old at this stage. If Australia and New Zealand can do it, there is really no reason why there can't be an all-island approach here when it comes to mandatory quarantine on entry to the country and get rid of community transmission as soon as possible. People are at the end of their tether.

elperello

Serious stuff, an inappropriate emoji.

Where will it all end?

OwenM

OwenM wrote: »

Yes it would. Perth has locked down yesterday (2 million people) because of one case.

We would have a multiple of that as we world have a high number of hauliers and essential cross border workers who would be subject only to a rapid test. Therefore some virus would get through.

Australia has zero land border crossings and so only has a ‘leak’, requiring a lockdown, every few months. We would have a ‘leak’ every few days or possible, at best, small number of weeks. Each requiring lockdown.

And, so, Nolan is right, IMO, to call ZC a false promise. We would be in and out of lockdown, with no notice, incessantly and in perpetuity

AdamD

leahyl wrote: »

Fair enough, still don't see why they can't aim for this zero covid - we're constantly hearing that we can't close the country to international travel, it's getting a bit old at this stage. If Australia and New Zealand can do it, there is really no reason why there can't be an all-island approach here when it comes to mandatory quarantine on entry to the country and get rid of community transmission as soon as possible. People are at the end of their tether.

Because aiming for it would add a couple of months onto our current lockdown. That is not a simple decision to take. With vaccinations increasing this should be the final lockdown, why drag it on for longer than needed with no guarantee of zero covid??

And yes there are reasons why we don't have an All-Ireland approach - this can only happen if the UK goes along with it.

DraftDodger

It's an emoji of a thumbs up. Now maybe if he put his thumb up Holohan's backside it would be newsworthy.

Nothing story.

leahyl

AdamD wrote: »

Because aiming for it would add a couple of months onto our current lockdown. That is not a simple decision to take. With vaccinations increasing this should be the final lockdown, why drag it on for longer than needed with no guarantee of zero covid??

And yes there are reasons why we don't have an All-Ireland approach - this can only happen if the UK goes along with it.

Yes, I know that, but I don't see why they can't work together when it comes to something as huge as this

if zero covid is adding a couple of more months onto our current lockdown but it results in zero community transmission in Ireland, would that not give us better prospects for the summer at least? At the moment, it sounds like there are going to be lockdowns all the way up to Autumn.

Le Bruise

leahyl wrote: »

Yes, I know that, but I don't see why they can't work together when it comes to something as huge as this

if zero covid is adding a couple of more months onto our current lockdown but it results in zero community transmission in Ireland, would that not give us better prospects for the summer at least? At the moment, it sounds like there are going to be lockdowns all the way up to Autumn.

It'll be restrictions rather than full on 'lockdowns' through the summer.

One would hope this is our last proper lockdown and, once lifted (in March/April), should see us gradually easing restrictions until a critical mass has been vaccinated and we can achieve normality (bar international travel).

It's too late to consider zero COVID at this stage of the game, so close to the finish.

Ha Long Bay

seamus

Sunday: 1,153 positives on 17,649; 6.53%
Today: 831 positives on 15,047; 5.52%

7-day rate now 6.64%

There's the beginnings of the landing coming into view now. Once we get to a 7-day of ~5%, the reduction from there will be quite slow.

Testing of close contacts will mess with things this week, but tracking the positivity rate should still be accurate enough.

fred funk }{

Incredible numbers.

leahyl

Le Bruise wrote: »

It'll be restrictions rather than full on 'lockdowns' through the summer.

One would hope this is our last proper lockdown and, once lifted (in March/April), should see us gradually easing restrictions until a critical mass has been vaccinated and we can achieve normality (bar international travel).

It's too late to consider zero COVID at this stage of the game, so close to the finish.

I'm not getting that impression of late to be honest. I don't think we are going to be back to normal, as we knew it before Covid, by September. I think the goalposts keep shifting There seems to be issues with vaccine supply too. I guess I'm just at the end of my tether myself and can't imagine another 6 months or more of this

KrustyUCC

seamus wrote: »

Sunday: 1,153 positives on 17,649; 6.53%
Today: 831 positives on 15,047; 5.52%

7-day rate now 6.64%

Excellent

Hopefully under 1000 cases later on so

Thats the lowest swabs for quite a while

seamus

seamus wrote: »

Sunday: 1,153 positives on 17,649; 6.53%
Today: 831 positives on 15,047; 5.52%

7-day rate now 6.64%

There's the beginnings of the landing coming into view now. Once we get to a 7-day of ~5%, the reduction from there will be quite slow.

Testing of close contacts will mess with things this week, but tracking the positivity rate should still be accurate enough.

At those rates, the impact of the resumption of contact tracing is being absorbed into the underlying trend

hmmm

Deleted User wrote: »

And, so, Nolan is right, IMO, to call ZC a false promise. We would be in and out of lockdown, with no notice, incessantly and in perpetuity

I think people are under-estimating the disruption of the "no-notice" bit. One minute it's all normal, then an hour later the government has shut everything down. That's going to be incredibly stressful. At least with lockdowns you can relatively gradually see things getting better or worse (that's assuming you don't do what we did at Christmas).

I do agree that something like a zero-Covid should be tried (e.g. no "living with the virus"), and instead try and get cases very low but with continued restrictions, and agree also that the Oz/NZ approach is simply unworkable considering our trade and other ties with our near neighbours in Europe.

Eod100

Any idea when close contacts will be included in test numbers?

NomadicGray

IAMAMORON wrote: »

Sorry I have things to be doing to be honest.

Clearly not much

is_that_so

Eod100 wrote: »

Any idea when close contacts will be included in test numbers?

Some could be in that as they started back on Friday.

fred funk }{

Eod100 wrote: »

Any idea when close contacts will be included in test numbers?

They started yesterday so today's numbers should have them included which makes the numbers all the better.

seamus

KrustyUCC wrote: »

Excellent

Hopefully under 1000 cases later on so

Thats the lowest swabs for quite a while

Lowest since 22nd December. It was technically lower on the 27th, but that was due to Xmas day, we only took 3,500 swabs in total that day, so I don't count it

It's the lowest positivity rate since 19th December.

In overall context, swab numbers, positivity rates and trends are now roughly on a par with 23/24th October. So it'll likely be the guts of a month before we get within pissing distance of a 3% positivity rate.

This will make it feel like a long slog, so focus on the hospital and ICU numbers. That's where you'll see the real gains being made.

Eod100 wrote: »

Any idea when close contacts will be included in test numbers?

Apparently they started scheduling tests for them last Friday, so there should be some in today's numbers already. But realistically it'll be tomorrow or Wednesday before they really kick in.

ninebeanrows

Yes the pace will certainly slow from here but we are doing ok and still have another 5 weeks of tight restrictions. We could get to 200 cases per day by early March at this pace.

MerlinSouthDub

KrustyUCC wrote: »

Excellent

Hopefully under 1000 cases later on so

Thats the lowest swabs for quite a while

A backlog of about 600 cases has built up since 27th January, so don't be surprised with higher than 1000 today

ninebeanrows

Of course primary schools reopening and construction beginning to open may stall the decline somewhat but should not have a huge impact.

Kunta Kinte

seamus wrote: »

Sunday: 1,153 positives on 17,649; 6.53%
Today: 831 positives on 15,047; 5.52%

7-day rate now 6.64%

There's the beginnings of the landing coming into view now. Once we get to a 7-day of ~5%, the reduction from there will be quite slow.

Testing of close contacts will mess with things this week, but tracking the positivity rate should still be accurate enough.

Why do you think this will be slow?

leahyl

leahyl wrote: »

I'm not getting that impression of late to be honest. I don't think we are going to be back to normal, as we knew it before Covid, by September. I think the goalposts keep shifting There seems to be issues with vaccine supply too. I guess I'm just at the end of my tether myself and can't imagine another 6 months or more of this

No one thinks we will be back to normal by September. That was never on the agenda. “Back to normal” (ie. 2019) will not be until well into next year, even if all goes well

But it’s a sliding scale. Some seem to lose sight of that. We won’t have another 6 months of this either. Things will be relaxed through the spring and more again into the summer

seamus

seamus wrote: »

Lowest since 22nd December. It was technically lower on the 27th, but that was due to Xmas day, we only took 3,500 swabs in total that day, so I don't count it

It's the lowest positivity rate since 19th December.

In overall context, swab numbers, positivity rates and trends are now roughly on a par with 23/24th October. So it'll likely be the guts of a month before we get within pissing distance of a 3% positivity rate.

This will make it feel like a long slog, so focus on the hospital and ICU numbers. That's where you'll see the real gains being made.

Apparently they started scheduling tests for them last Friday, so there should be some in today's numbers already. But realistically it'll be tomorrow or Wednesday before they really kick in.

Would say there are already back in. Actual swabs taken are significantly up on last weekend. If each conformed case has 2.5 contacts, its only about 2.5k tests per day at most

Amirani

Deleted User wrote: »

I think what that article sums up is that Irish journalists are much more confortable talking about people and their relationships than numbers or science. Donnelly is a bit of a tool, but I would hope that far more than text exchanges weight into the decisions taken by government

There is limitation in the report in that everything came from emails and texts and the article tries to fill in the gaps as such.

Given they work in the same building and likely communicate regularly by phone, it's hard to say whether these "gaps" or periods of silence are actually such.

fred funk }{

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

A backlog of about 600 cases has built up since 27th January, so don't be surprised with higher than 1000 today

FFS.

is_that_so

DraftDodger wrote: »

It's an emoji of a thumbs up. Now maybe if he put his thumb up Holohan's backside it would be newsworthy.

Nothing story.

Not according to Tanya Sweeney in the IT. Do people really put that much stock in the perceived emotional value of emojis? Half the time you've no idea why people use what they use!

https://www.irishtimes.com/culture/tv-radio-web/take-note-stephen-donnelly-the-thumbs-up-emoji-is-the-most-passive-aggressive-of-all-1.4473009

0gac3yjefb5sv7

john4321 wrote: »

Does this mean only 831 cases today (excluding backlog)?