The wondrous adventures of Sinn Fein (part 3) Mod Notes and Threadbanned List in OP

FrancieBrady

Marine Layer wrote: »

Ah yeah, but as you know that was a large chunk of protest vote
Is there a new protest vote coming? No real sign of it
Protest pool has been drained
People by and large don't switch from FG to SF, so where's the home for the 10% extra answering polls in the last year saying FG if they get fed up of that option
Not anywhere SF friendly or left wing anyway
SF's problem is a lack of enough dancing partners and mis steps like the Dowdall crime gang connection

The electorate have not given their view on the coalition yet. I expect the same movement in the polls as there was the last time when an actual election is called. Except this time FG and SF will be starting from the base figures they have now.
FG's base is in and around where it was before an election was called last time...SF's is consistently much higher.

I wouldn't be calling anything tbh.

FrancieBrady

Hamsterchops wrote: »

But jimmycrackcorn is not wrong when he says "Sinn Fein and the IRA were a bunch of absolute lunatics that didn't care about ordinary people".

Mayn of the PIRAs victims were "their own people" who either got out of line or were friendly with the security forces, so they either got their knee caps blown off or a bullet in the head.

He's dead right.

The electorate in the north showed what they thought of the IRA overall when they overwhelmingly supported SF since the GFA was achieved. That is the reality.

Nationalists see the GFA as an achievement HC, partitionists and unionists need to realise that and in many ways, get over that.

There were 'lunatic' things done by all in the conflict/war. Was it all the act of lunatics? The electorate clearly don't think so.

TheCitizen

Marine Layer wrote: »

Agree on SF candidate picking
I don't agree theres much change in FG's 30 year vote percentage albeit the lowest it ever was in GE 20
You need to be cognisant of where voters movr idrologically
Centre floating as opposedto centre solid have been going independent lately
Once in the 90s they went labour
A lot of that centre vote depends on the pocket
The picket is always threatened by the left
Not necessarily by SF in that respect as populism tapers their leftism
Much to the disdain probably of a hard core cuba ussr venuezela fan club who lets face it are a minority of SF's base

You don’t agree there’s much change in FG’s 30 year vote? Really?

There was a time 30 and 40 years ago, FF aspired to overall majorities and then after Jack Lynch formed governments with a smaller party in coalition. FG did the same with one party like Labour but then needed more than one party to form a government. They (FF/FG) now form governments together and they need others to prop them up like the Greens now. The days of FF and FG taking it in turns leading governments or leading opposition are gone.

You’re deluding yourself when you say there hasn’t been much change in FG’s or FF’s for that matter vote share over recent decades.

FrancieBrady

FrancieBrady wrote: »

The electorate have not given their view on the coalition yet. I expect the same movement in the polls as there was the last time when an actual election is called. Except this time FG and SF will be starting from the base figures they have now.
FG's base is in and around where it was before an election was called last time...SF's is consistently much higher.

I wouldn't be calling anything tbh.

I thought you wouldn't be calling it..

SF has had ONE election with high results
Its polling since has increasd by 1 to 2 points above the margin of error
FF has dropped
FG up 5 to 10 poins above the margin of error
Green,Blue,Red or tricolour specs need dismounting from tbe eyes when analyising voter thoughts
A better analysis is what category are voters more aligned towards
They will move in side that category
Ireland doesnt have a left or right majority
It has left or right niches who end up settling for right of centre or left of centre governments
That could easily be FG SF at some point but I'd imagine both would want to leave their baggage with each other behind
Thats likely to be an election or 2 away
Its a definite likelyhood in a UI imho

blanch152

FrancieBrady wrote: »

The electorate in the north showed what they thought of the IRA overall when they overwhelmingly supported SF since the GFA was achieved. That is the reality.

Nationalists see the GFA as an achievement HC, partitionists and unionists need to realise that and in many ways, get over that.

There were 'lunatic' things done by all in the conflict/war. Was it all the act of lunatics? The electorate clearly don't think so.

You are correct. The fact that Sinn Fein couldn't get a significant vote while the PIRA were fully active shows that the population of the North didn't support them. The increase since the GFA confirms this.

TheCitizen

blanch152 wrote: »

You are correct. The fact that Sinn Fein couldn't get a significant vote while the PIRA were fully active shows that the population of the North didn't support them. The increase since the GFA confirms this.

Yes everyone knows that. SF has grown its popularity as a party because of the Peace Process and the GFA that they were one of the architects of.

TheCitizen

TheCitizen wrote: »

You don’t agree there’s much change in FG’s 30 year vote?

You’re deluding yourself when you say there hasn’t been much change in FG’s or FF’s for that matter vote share over recent decades.

FG's vote has often been in or around 30% in the last half century
What I'm essentially saying,the real delusion is for either suppirter to believe SF and FG are going away
Eventually they will be working together
I genuinely don't think tbey want to at the moment
20 years ago by the way FG had 27% of the 1st preference vote
Not a lot has changed

FrancieBrady

Marine Layer wrote: »

I thought you wouldn't be calling it..

SF has had ONE election with high results
Its polling since has increasd by 1 to 2 points above the margin of error
FF has dropped
FG up 5 to 10 poins above the margin of error
Green,Blue,Red or tricolour specs need dismounting from tbe eyes when analyising voter thoughts
A better analysis is what category are voters more aligned towards
They will move in side that category
Ireland doesnt have a left or right majority
It has left or right niches who end up settling for right of centre or left of centre governments
That could easily be FG SF at some point but I'd imagine both would want to leave their baggage with each other behind
Thats likely to be an election or 2 away
Its a definite likelyhood in a UI imho

FG are where they where before the last election, in a con and supply government.

Seems to me the electorate are giving FG the benefit of the doubt in a FF/FG arrangement.

Not so assured when it comes to standing alone though. As their polling plummeted to the low 20's last time an election was called and the electorate was asked what they think. That low 20's was borne out in the result.

This is important in my opinion...SF didn't reap the benefit of that fall straight away...it wasn't a 'protest vote' swinging away to somebody else. They increased their polling figures gradually through the campaign suggesting to me that people were persuaded by what they were offering. They seemed to have kept that vote and grown it by a few percent.

Can FG stand alone again and keep their 30%? Can SF break through the 30%?

Ceilings have been set here before and have been broken through.

Remains to be seen, Irish politics, once dominated by the power share (86% of the vote at one time!) is in a state of flux and shift.

blanch152

TheCitizen wrote: »

You don’t agree there’s much change in FG’s 30 year vote? Really?

There was a time 30 and 40 years ago, FF aspired to overall majorities and then after Jack Lynch formed governments with a smaller party in coalition. FG did the same with one party like Labour but then needed more than one party to form a government. They (FF/FG) now form governments together and they need others to prop them up like the Greens now. The days of FF and FG taking it in turns leading governments or leading opposition are gone.

You’re deluding yourself when you say there hasn’t been much change in FG’s or FF’s for that matter vote share over recent decades.

There has been a huge change in the FF vote over the last 30-40 years years. Not so clear that is the case with FG.

FG are currently at 30% in the polls. Only once since 1987 have FG got over 30% in an election.


Edit: Just realised this is the SF thread, apologise for off-topic post

Fionn1952

blanch152 wrote: »

You are correct. The fact that Sinn Fein couldn't get a significant vote while the PIRA were fully active shows that the population of the North didn't support them. The increase since the GFA confirms this.

Trying to extrapolate NI voting and apply it down here is an exercise in futility; how many SF voters in the North vote for them because they agree with the Party's policies? How many vote for them because they see them as better than the alternative if they didn't?

Nor can you really extrapolate PIRA support from their NI election support, the correlation is much looser than you suggest.

Essentially I'd caution against reading too much into the perceived implications of any vote in the North.

blanch152

TheCitizen wrote: »

Yes everyone knows that. SF has grown its popularity as a party because of the Peace Process and the GFA that they were one of the architects of.

It has grown because they have stopped actively supporting terrorism.

TheCitizen

Marine Layer wrote: »

I thought you wouldn't be calling it..

SF has had ONE election with high results
Its polling since has increasd by 1 to 2 points above the margin of error
FF has dropped
FG up 5 to 10 poins above the margin of error
Green,Blue,Red or tricolour specs need dismounting from tbe eyes when analyising voter thoughts
A better analysis is what category are voters more aligned towards
They will move in side that category
Ireland doesnt have a left or right majority
It has left or right niches who end up settling for right of centre or left of centre governments
That could easily be FG SF at some point but I'd imagine both would want to leave their baggage with each other behind
Thats likely to be an election or 2 away
Its a definite likelyhood in a UI imho

Seems like most of the anti SF posters on this thread are FG supporters as opposed to FF of others. You appear to be dismissing FF. There were 3 parties neck and neck at the end of it, FG the smaller of the three and yet they’re still in government. They had representatives that came on after the election saying they lost the election.

TheCitizen

blanch152 wrote: »

It has grown because they have stopped actively supporting terrorism.

I prefer the way I put it.

FrancieBrady

blanch152 wrote: »

You are correct. The fact that Sinn Fein couldn't get a significant vote while the PIRA were fully active shows that the population of the North didn't support them. The increase since the GFA confirms this.

You were shown the data on this before. Despite being shot, intimidated, censored and pilloried left right and centre, SF grew it's vote all through the 80's and 90's and totally eclipsed the SDLP.

It's bollix to suggest otherwise. It's SDLP style whinging and propaganda to ignore what was actually happening in the voting trends.

FrancieBrady

blanch152 wrote: »

It has grown because they have stopped actively supporting terrorism.

Ah there's the pivot to suit whatever today's agenda is. In the next breath we'll be told they are still supporting/condoning/glorifying it and the Army Council is still running them etc etc etc .

RandomName2

TheCitizen wrote: »

You don’t agree there’s much change in FG’s 30 year vote? Really?

This is quite off topic, but yes, there hasn;t been much change in FG's vote in 30 years

They've only once went above 30%, never below 20%.

Twenty years ago they sat on 22.5% and most recently 20.9%

Fianna Fail on the other hand have not being able to get out of their post-Cowen slump. They have recovered a bit from their horrendous 2011 result, but have really struggled to break out of polling around the mid-20s. This isn't as much an issue for FG, because that's traditionally the sort of support that party has commanded, but this is not great news for FF. Possibly a shakeup and re-branding will be required for the country's second oldest party (after Labour).

There's clearly a gap in the political market in Ireland, and while we constantly have new parties think that there's a gap in the economical and social left, this isn't actually the case. We have Greens, AAA, PBP, SD, Sol, I4C, Labour, SF, and even arguably FF and FG who all scrap over the same policies and end up having broadly similar programs for government.

Here's a simple litmus test. If you want to vote for a party who supports Nuclear Energy what option have you got? Nothing. Greater fiscal responsibility? Stronger tests for granting citizenship? Removal of a lot of NGO funding? Increased allocation for rail development with stronger compulsory purchase mechanisms? Again, there's nobody to vote for if these issues matter to you, and that's just a small sample of issues for which no mainstream party exists.

On paper at least all the parties are copy-paste jobs. In practice they can actually differ substantially, but they're all targeting the same milieu of voters, which doesn't really make sense. The true Irish republican party that values society over corporations!

TheCitizen

blanch152 wrote: »

There has been a huge change in the FF vote over the last 30-40 years years. Not so clear that is the case with FG.

FG are currently at 30% in the polls. Only once since 1987 have FG got over 30% in an election.


Edit: Just realised this is the SF thread, apologise for off-topic post

It’s not off topic to discuss electoral changes, it applies to all parties and affects all parties, how can it be off topic?

FG used to be able to form governments with Labour or with Labour and a couple of other small parties or Independents. That’s a huge change that means SF now lead the opposition.

blanch152

TheCitizen wrote: »

It’s not off topic to discuss electoral changes, it applies to all parties and affects all parties, how can it be off topic?

FG used to be able to form governments with Labour or with Labour and a couple of other small parties or Independents. That’s a huge change that means SF now lead the opposition.

The point is that is mainly due to the fracturing of the FF vote (to SF and independents) and the changes in the votes for smaller parties. The FG vote in or around 30% has been steady for the last 30/40 years.

RandomName2

TheCitizen wrote: »

FG used to be able to form governments with Labour or with Labour and a couple of other small parties or Independents. That’s a huge change.

A huge change for Labour. Labour has always been FG's favored partner, and they would drop FF like a shot if Labour had achieved 15% in the last election, instead of a miserly 4.4%. Without question the government would have been FG-L-GP-Inds if Labour had done that well.

blanch152

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Ah there's the pivot to suit whatever today's agenda is. In the next breath we'll be told they are still supporting/condoning/glorifying it and the Army Council is still running them etc etc etc .

Yes, they no longer actively support terrorism on a daily basis. That is behind the rise in the polls.

The issues of sneaking regard, any covert support, dalliances in criminality and the nauseous celebrations of terrorists all need highlighting to show it is only the facade that has changed.

TheCitizen

TheCitizen wrote: »

Seems like most of the anti SF posters on this thread are FG supporters as opposed to FF of others. You appear to be dismissing FF. There were 3 parties neck and neck at the end of it, FG the smaller of the three and yet they’re still in government. They had representatives that came on after the election saying they lost the election.

I'd be loathe to dismiss FF,they have a very strong grass root
They are hobbled though as their working class vote,a good third of their total has permanently left
FG did lose the election
Horse trading persuaded them into government,horse trading the rotating Taoiseach
There is nothing in our electoral laws banning a coalition involving a losing party
Polls are telling us consistently that the electorate want more of the same centrist governence
No party won
One tied on seats but won the most
Being 30 plus short of a majority is not a win
A government returning as a coalition could be called a win for a government alright but not a party in it

FrancieBrady

blanch152 wrote: »

Yes, they no longer actively support terrorism on a daily basis. That is behind the rise in the polls.

The issues of sneaking regard, any covert support, dalliances in criminality and the nauseous celebrations of terrorists all need highlighting to show it is only the facade that has changed.

Now it's 'blanch knows but the saps in the north and south don't know and are being conned'.

The arrogance and refusal to face realities. The same arrogance that led Charlie and Leo to try for a state commemoration of the Black and Tans.

TheCitizen

RandomName2 wrote: »

A huge change for Labour. Labour has always been FG's favored partner, and they would drop FF like a shot if Labour had achieved 15% in the last election, instead of a miserly 4.4%. Without question the government would have been FG-L-GP-Inds if Labour had done that well.

It’s a huge change for FG as well. It means their options have changed completely. FF and FG alway either lead government or lead opposition since the 1930’s.

It means (to get back on topic as this is the SF thread) this current strategy to keep SF out of government at all costs will eventually flounder. They’re getting too big to keep out. Eventually FF or FG will have to form a government with them or they’ll form a government without either one of them.

FrancieBrady

FrancieBrady wrote: »

FG are where they where before the last election, in a con and supply government.

Seems to me the electorate are giving FG the benefit of the doubt in a FF/FG arrangement.

Not so assured when it comes to standing alone though. As their polling plummeted to the low 20's last time an election was called and the electorate was asked what they think. That low 20's was borne out in the result.

This is important in my opinion...SF didn't reap the benefit of that fall straight away...it wasn't a 'protest vote' swinging away to somebody else. They increased their polling figures gradually through the campaign suggesting to me that people were persuaded by what they were offering. They seemed to have kept that vote and grown it by a few percent.

Can FG stand alone again and keep their 30%? Can SF break through the 30%?

Ceilings have been set here before and have been broken through.

Remains to be seen, Irish politics, once dominated by the power share (86% of the vote at one time!) is in a state of flux and shift.

My point stands I think,red,green,blue or tricolour glasses need to be off
As I said to you before,polling is saying voters are tacitly accepting the current administration or a close relation because thats what current polling would return

MadYaker

TheCitizen wrote: »

Results vary from election to election, overall though the electoral base of Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael combined has contracted alarmingly over several decades. That’s not a flash in the pan. They have lost so much ground that they eventually did the unthinkable and got into bed to maintain power.

As for the newly minted millstone around SF, yes they’ve got to be far more careful about vetting who they are putting forward for council elections. They have cut ties with the character in question from a couple of years back and I’m not sure this story is causing the same ructions with the electorate as it is with a certain cohort on here who’ll never vote SF anyway because tribal ties to their party/parties of choice.

SF though for their part need to be more circumspect about picking representatives, they need more because they could have won more seats if they had more candidates in the last election but they’ve got to be very wary about who comes making themselves available to represent them.

They eventually got rid of that Paddy Hoolihan guy recently I think, but were very slow about it and gave him more chances to keep putting his foot in it. On the other hand when they do get rid of poor candidates they get accused of bullying. They have opportunity to grow more but finding and choosing decent candidates will be the challenging part.

Why do you think SF are the only party that allow people like this into their ranks? I think you’d be very naive to assume that Houlihan and this guy are isolated incidents. It’s a problem with the culture in the party. They have an odour around that, for me at least, they haven’t been able to shake.

FrancieBrady

Marine Layer wrote: »

My point stands I think,red,green,blue or tricolour glasses need to be off
As I said to you before,polling is saying voters are tacitly accepting the current administration or a close relation because thats what current polling would return

Thinking there is not going to be a further shift because these two parties of the power swap have done something unprecedented- coalesced/tacitly merged is to wear 'glasses' as well. Welding or black out glasses.

We'll see what happens.

TheCitizen

MadYaker wrote: »

Why do you think SF are the only party that allow people like this into their ranks? I think you’d be very naive to assume that Houlihan and this guy are isolated incidents. It’s a problem with the culture in the party. They have an odour around that, for me at least, they haven’t been able to shake.

There’s been plenty of dodgy characters in other parties over the years. SF are growing rapidly and need candidates, so they’ve got to watch out for who’s making themselves available is the mistake they’ve made recently as I see it

Marco23d

blanch152 wrote: »

You are correct. The fact that Sinn Fein couldn't get a significant vote while the PIRA were fully active shows that the population of the North didn't support them. The increase since the GFA confirms this.

In the first election Sinn Fein contested in 1983 they got 105,000 votes and the SDLP got 135,000.

They didn't have the full support it's true but there was a lot of wiggle room to potentially get it.

I seen a couple of documentaries where British politicians said that the goal from the early to mid 80s was to become the main party on the Catholic side and then change their tactics from low level warfare to all out warfare.

There were numerous bans on Sinn Fein, propaganda campaigns against them and 50 Sinn Fein members were killed they done quite well considering everything was stacked against them.

RandomName2

TheCitizen wrote: »

this current strategy to keep SF out of government at all costs will eventually flounder. They’re getting too big to keep out. Eventually FF or FG will have to form a government with them or they’ll form a government without either one of them.

Not necessarily. If SF sheds support to a party like SD then SD would get into government a minority partner in a coalition, no problem.

We see similar situations in Europe. In Netherlands the traditional parties have stated they will not go into government with PVV, in Belgium the traditional parties have stated they will not go intro government with either PB or N-VA, in France, NR, in Spain, Vox, in Sweden, SD. These are not minor parties. In some of these countries they are the largest parties, but while they remain too toxic to do deals with by the other large parties they remain unable to form governments.

Throughout Europe the different parties see this. The populist parties for their part sometimes try to shed some of their less desirable trappings and distance themselves from older members who are extremists. The mainstream parties for their part may consider addressing some of the reasons for these populist parties rise and improve their own policies as a result.

FrancieBrady

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Thinking there is not going to be a further shift because these two parties of the power swap have done something unprecedented- coalesced/tacitly merged is to wear 'glasses' as well. Welding or black out glasses.

We'll see what happens.

We can only look at the here and now
Poll's are margin of error consistent on where people are at and theres no sign of a shift out of peoples left,right or centre politics cohort
Absolutely no welding,green,red or tricolour glasses on those