The wondrous adventures of Sinn Fein (part 3) Mod Notes and Threadbanned List in OP

maccored

maccored wrote: »

she's a former provo - big deal.

I’m sure the people with horrific burns, amputations and life changing injuries care.

Or the folks who had to bury their dead in closed coffins.

Lots of people care. It wasn’t all helicopters in Mountjoy and lusty renditions of the men behind the wire.

FrancieBrady

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

I think you're way overstating the importance of the Black & Tan thing. How many people who felt very strongly about that were likely to be voting FG in the first place, especially now SF are an acceptable choice for 'soft republicans'? Tbh I don't think FG's fall in vote share takes much explaining; they had been in power for a decade and were historically the second party. The big question about the last election is why so many people who, according to the opinion polls, had been intending to vote FF and make them clearly the largest party switched to FF at the last minute.

The B&T thing was the last straw. I think it was the tiredness of the nod and wink confidence and supply arrangement and presiding over record breaking crisis that had the biggest impact TBH. Mary Lou prved very effective showing up the arrogance in the election campaigns and FG FF responded with conflict/war based attacks. The public are fed up with that.

jmcc

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Imagine a campaign and the question 'will you go into coalition with x and y'.

That has been the problem since the last majority government in the 1970s.

Very tricky one for all of them to navigate. FG have managed to not take the blame for the bad stuff so far and Varadkar is still riding on the glow of the job he did during the pandemic beginning.


That will fade very quickly as his, i.e. the FG Finance Minister has to pay for it all and Leo is the Taoiseach (if he gets off in the criminal investigation)

That will play into Shinner hands, (any opposition in actual fact) they are good at calling out austerity measures.

It would put SF in the running for enough seats for a majority government in the subsequent GE.

IMO by the end of a full term, there will be a lot of 'floating votes' looking for a home. Polls at the moment could drastically change.

The thing that is ignored by the media is that the floating vote decides elections. The undecided voters used to be excluded in opinion polls to make it seem that the political parties had much more support than they had in reality.

The other fact that should be worrying FF and FG is that SF is the only party with substantial representation on both sides of the border. A Border Poll is going to happen and only SF seems to be prepared for it.

Regards...jmcc

FrancieBrady

SafeSurfer wrote: »

From what I remember FG were open to the idea of governing with FF prior to the 2020 GE.

Varadkar said that puting Michael Martin in charge would be like putting John Delaney back in charge of the FAI.

He put Martin back in charge.

Ireland since independence hasn’t done too badly. We came through a war of independence, a bitter civil war and the peaceful transfer of power between the 2 main parties who had fought the civil wars just 10 years before.

You talk about political maturity?

Compare that with the situation in the north where Sinn Fein has been in government and the executive has been closed for prolonged periods, walkouts, tantrums, crises, having to be spoon fed by other governments and only made to see sense by outside intervention.

Is that the type of political maturity you want in the south?

Sinn Fein have, in my opinion, made politics more childish, less mature.

I can only point you to what has happened here in the jurisdiction I said had yet to mature politically.
NI is not comparable to here because of it's structure and uniqueness.

jmcc

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

I think you're way overstating the importance of the Black & Tan thing.

From 28% to 20% in the space of a few weeks? SF going from the smallest of the big three parties to getting more seats than one of the parties that had dominated Irish politics for decades? Having real FGers who consider Micheal Collins to be a major influence on FG (despite him being only ever a member of SF and dead for years before FG was formed) despise Flanagan and his neo-Unionism? And as for the neo-Unionism of Micheal Martin the "leader" of FF? All the stars aligned for SF and it exploited FG's Black and Tans/RIC commemoration.

How many people who felt very strongly about that were likely to be voting FG in the first place,

Voter motivations vary and are not simply votes for a party. This is something that most party members and supporters never really understand. In their minds, people vote for FF/FG/SF/Labour etc and therefore each vote is a vote for the party. The reality is far more complex than this and that goes doubly so when it comes to floating voters who will vote on policies or because they thing a particular candidate will do a good job.

especially now SF are an acceptable choice for 'soft republicans'?

A simplistic representation of highly complex motives.

Tbh I don't think FG's fall in vote share takes much explaining; they had been in power for a decade and were historically the second party.

FG had the chance at a majority government in 2011 but it blew it. It really wasn't facing much opposition from the grovelling FF and from SF. It could, had it not been for the neo-Unionists in FG, have won many more seats than it did.

The big question about the last election is why so many people who, according to the opinion polls, had been intending to vote FF and make them clearly the largest party switched to FF at the last minute.

A generation of voters has grown up watching the Simpsons. The Mister Burns character is very similar looking to Micheal Martin, isn't he?

Had there been real leadership in FG (don't forget that the useless Varadkar gave away a seat in Wexford to please to the Wokus Dei morons in the Dublin media rather than tell them to get lost) and FF, (dithering, rudderless, grovelling to FG), then SF would not have been as successful. The only thing that saved FF/FG from a worse election was that SF ran too few candidates. I don't think that it will make that mistake again and will pay close attention to opinion poll trends.

Regards...jmcc

Brendan Bendar

FrancieBrady wrote: »

The B&T thing was the last straw. I think it was the tiredness of the nod and wink confidence and supply arrangement and presiding over record breaking crisis that had the biggest impact TBH. Mary Lou prved very effective showing up the arrogance in the election campaigns and FG FF responded with conflict/war based attacks. The public are fed up with that.

Have you evidence based proof that that is correct?

cosying up to a gangland member ?

Very much mistaken, a chara.

FrancieBrady

Brendan Bendar wrote: »

Have you evidence based proof that that is correct?

cosying up to a gangland member ?

Very much mistaken, a chara.

Every time FG and FF attacked using the conflict/war, SF went up in the polls.

The public knew about Mary Lou's friendship with Dowdall at the last election. They even knew the full gory details of what he had been involved in...SF still topped the poll as most popular party.

SafeSurfer

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Varadkar said that puting Michael Martin in charge would be like putting John Delaney back in charge of the FAI.

He put Martin back in charge.



I can only point you to what has happened here in the jurisdiction I said had yet to mature politically.
NI is not comparable to here because of it's structure and uniqueness.

Varadkar never ruled out governing with FF.

Quote from before the election.

“But if the numbers fall a certain way and the only way to form a stable government is for Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael to cooperate in coming together, I think that’s the responsible thing to do for the country,”

And again

“If it is the case that the people vote in a certain way and the only way that we can form a stable government is for Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael to work together, I am willing to do that.”

Ireland is consistently voted one of the best countries in the world in which to live.

You are right that the northern state is different. The executive is structured to force power sharing and cooperation and twenty years after the GFA is an on again off again failure. Compare that to the aftermath of the conflict in the south and tell us about political maturity.

awec

https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/politics/arid-40277060.html

Two Derry MLAs asked by Sinn Féin to consider their position. Martina Anderson and Karen Mullan. It doesn't look like they've done anything wrong, more seems related to poor performance by the party in Derry.

Anderson is a big fish.

FrancieBrady

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Varadkar said that puting Michael Martin in charge would be like putting John Delaney back in charge of the FAI.

He put Martin back in charge.

.

And he will put mary lou in charge or Micheál will or mary lou will put one of them or their sucessors in charge
So what
People going on as if thats not whats coming downthe tracks are going to be looking for a new party with more empty revolution promises and in for more disappointment
And if you think thats not going to be the way,good luck with that

Brendan Bendar

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Every time FG and FF attacked using the conflict/war, SF went up in the polls.

The public knew about Mary Lou's friendship with Dowdall at the last election. They even knew the full gory details of what he had been involved in...SF still topped the poll as most popular party.

I’m afraid any party which garners support on that basis, there’s not a lot a person can say for their ‘support’’!

skimpydoo

Marine Layer wrote: »

You really need to rethink your expectations of what will be horse traded in a coalition with SF
There is no Narnia
I've no problem with them in government if thats whats negotiated
What is certain is SF will then experience what its like to disapoint,to be realistic in other words
Their supporters will also feel the downer

Like the downers we feel when FF and FG are in government. What happened to Enda's report cards?

I am not saying everything will be rosey when SF are in government but can it get as bad as FF or FG?

skimpydoo

costacorta wrote: »

YAWN YAWN
Another first time SF voter ??
Never seen so many first time SF voters turn up on a SF thread defending them day in day out . I wonder is there any real long term SF voters that post on here as would love to hear their views .

You don't believe people can be sick of FF, FG or both in government?

Jinglejangle69

skimpydoo wrote: »

Like the downers we feel when FF and FG are in government. What happened to Enda's report cards?

I am not saying everything will be rosey when SF are in government but can it get as bad as FF or FG?

In your opinion it's bad and horrible and a 3rd world country.

Just remember a huge portion of the country disagree with you.

awec

Ahsurethatsit wrote: »

This has been known inside SF circle for months it was going to happen. Everyone in Derry knew.

Whats your issue?

I have no issue. It's interesting news about SF. Relax.

FrancieBrady

SafeSurfer wrote: »

Varadkar never ruled out governing with FF.

Quote from before the election.

“But if the numbers fall a certain way and the only way to form a stable government is for Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael to cooperate in coming together, I think that’s the responsible thing to do for the country,”

And again

“If it is the case that the people vote in a certain way and the only way that we can form a stable government is for Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael to work together, I am willing to do that.”

Ireland is consistently voted one of the best countries in the world in which to live.

You are right that the northern state is different. The executive is structured to force power sharing and cooperation and twenty years after the GFA is an on again off again failure. Compare that to the aftermath of the conflict in the south and tell us about political maturity.

They locked away the details of what was done in the conflict, then played civil war politics for most of a century...like children.

There is little doubt this state failed many of it's citizens if you look at the many tribunals and disclosures.

We have no ivory tower to be pointing elsewhere tbh.

And the problem is Leo put somebody in power he likened to John Delaney...will that come back to bite him and FG...I think it will. He and FF will be laughed at making promises and statements like that.
As I say...next campaign is tricky for them both. An opposition's paradise really.

rockatansky

awec wrote: »

I have no issue. It's interesting news about SF. Relax.

Agreed, it is interesting.

A loss by 17k votes in the last election. Clearly big problems there so asking her to step aside can only be a good thing on the ground for them.

awec

rockatansky wrote: »

Agreed, it is interesting.

A loss by 17k votes in the last election. Clearly big problems there so asking her to step aside can only be a good thing on the ground for them.

Don't know much about Karen Mullan but always thought Martina Anderson was a fairly mediocre politician.

Spent most of her time as an MEP so we didn't hear an awful lot from her but when we did (she was always wheeled out on TV to cover elections) it always seemed like she was out of her depth compared to others.

Worth pointing out that Anderson didn't run in that election, she got her MLA seat by co-option after she lost her MEP seat, so she wasn't part of that problem. But it seems that they don't feel she's capable of turning it around.

Loafing Oaf

FrancieBrady wrote: »

And the problem is Leo put somebody in power he likened to John Delaney...will that come back to bite him and FG...I think it will. He and FF will be laughed at making promises and statements like that.
As I say...next campaign is tricky for them both. An opposition's paradise really.

I don't see how it's tricky for FG; all they have to say is "We're the only truly anti-SF party" and that guarantees them at worst a strong second place behind SF.

FrancieBrady

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

I don't see how it's tricky for FG; all they have to say is "We're the only truly anti-SF party" and that guarantees them at worst a strong second place behind SF.

They did that last time...came in third.

Furze99

skimpydoo wrote: »

I am not saying everything will be rosey when SF are in government but can it get as bad as FF or FG?

Yes, it will almost certainly be a damn sight worse. The Shinners have one primary aim, a single government for the entire island. That end completely justifies any means, so if they get their bums in, you can expect anything from huge taxes to pay for it down to civil war. Be careful what you wish for.

rockatansky

awec wrote: »

Don't know much about Karen Mullan but always thought Martina Anderson was a fairly mediocre politician.

Spent most of her time as an MEP so we didn't hear an awful lot from her but when we did (she was always wheeled out on TV to cover elections) it always seemed like she was out of her depth compared to others.

Worth pointing out that Anderson didn't run in that election, she got her MLA seat by co-option after she lost her MEP seat, so she wasn't part of that problem. But it seems that they don't feel she's capable of turning it around.

Apparently she is very much the problem, and always has been. Considered herself untouchable within the party due to her time in prison. Difficult to work with and had Derry SF locked up for those who supported her only

Hamsterchops

So what did Mat Carty say in regards to a dead IRA man? Just listening to the end of the Tonight show on Virgin Media 1, and there was an exchange of words about some unpleasant comments Mat Carty said at the weekend regarding some commemoration praising some IRA murderer?

FrancieBrady

Hamsterchops wrote: »

So what did Mat Carty say in regards to a dead IRA man? Just listening to the end of the Tonight show on Virgin Media 1, and there was an exchange of words about some unpleasant comments Mat Carty said at the weekend regarding some commemoration praising some IRA murderer?

He told Jim Wells, he was not going to tell him how to view the conflict and he was going to view the conflict his way and his supporters way. Everyone has a different stance and a different view of the history, that has to be respected even if you disagree with it was the thrust of what he said.

Common sense basically.

Hamsterchops

Who was the murderer whom May Carty praised? And why did Matt Cooper pull him up on this?

Hamsterchops

Hamsterchops wrote: »

Who was the murderer whom May Carty praised? And why did Matt Cooper pull him up on this?

A lad called Séamus McElwaine. The only suspect in the attempted assassination of Arlene Fosters stepfather. And then SF go on about a shared legacy.

McElwaine was a serial killer who specialised in murdering Protestants.

FrancieBrady

Hamsterchops wrote: »

Who was the murderer whom May Carty praised? And why did Matt Cooper pull him up on this?

Jim Wells decided to deflect to it in a discussion about the DUP leadership. The subject was a near neighbour of my own, Seamus McElwain.

Hamsterchops

I'm in a Sinn Fein thread and you don't know what happened at the weekend regarding an IRA anniversary?

I'll start Googling so ....

FrancieBrady

Deleted User wrote: »

A lad called Séamus McElwaine. The only suspect in the attempted assassination of Arlene Fosters stepfather. And then SF go on about a shared legacy.

McElwaine was a serial killer who specialised in murdering Protestants.

Nice...you repeated Arlene's 'allegations.

BTW do you understand what 'shared' means?

FrancieBrady

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Nice...you repeated Arlene's 'allegations.

BTW do you understand what 'shared' means?

It means SF don’t eulogise a serial killer, and dem uns don’t go around eulogising lads like Lenny Murphy.

It comes from a bad place.

Easy to understand, Francie. Trying the old obtuse act all the time just isn’t working for you.