The wondrous adventures of Sinn Fein (part 3) Mod Notes and Threadbanned List in OP

Marco23d

batman75 wrote: »

I see Martina Anderson is being asked to consider her position as an MLA representative for Sinn Fein. I wonder is this the start of them de ira ing the party. Interesting times ahead. It would make them more palatable for many voters if they were kicking Ex IRA people to the kerb.

And less palatable to even more voters.

FrancieBrady

rockatansky wrote: »

It's not, it's about their very poor election showing in Derry. Plenty of former IRA volunteers are serving as elected representatives and will continue to do so.

I'd agree here. Derry has been declining for some time.

It is key for them as it hosts the battle with the leader of their contenders - the SDLP. I think Martina was one of those people where there was no middle ground, you either loved her or hated her.
I work with a group in Derry, mainly young people in the 20-40 yr age range and while I don't know how they vote, none of them like her.
It will be interesting to see who replaces her and the others around her.

FrancieBrady

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I'd agree here. Derry has been declining for some time.

It is key for them as it hosts the battle with the leader of their contenders - the SDLP. I think Martina was one of those people where there was no middle ground, you either loved her or hated her.
I work with a group in Derry, mainly young people in the 20-40 yr age range and while I don't know how they vote, none of them like her.
It will be interesting to see who replaces her and the others around her.

I hope you’ve been respecting the restrictions, Francie. Bit of a trek from the stony grey soil up to the walls.

Loafing Oaf

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Doesn't matter what the 'upshot' would have been. Leo did what he did.

But you're claiming Varadkar's pervarications around the formation of the current government will have negative consequences for him and FG down the road. You're positing these hordes of anti-FF FG voters who will have been shocked and horrified at his decision to enter coalition with FF after saying mean things about them in the run-up to the election and who would have preferred FG to remain 'pure' in opposition and allow FF and SF to get on with forming a government. I'm just pointing the implausibility of this.

FrancieBrady

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

But you're claiming Varadkar's pervarications around the formation of the current government will have negative consequences for him and FG down the road. You're positing these hordes of anti-FF FG voters who will have been shocked and horrified at his decision to enter coalition with FF after saying mean things about them in the run-up to the election and who would have preferred FG to remain 'pure' in opposition and allow FF and SF to get on with forming a government. I'm just pointing the implausibility of this.

I'm saying he won't be believed no matter what he says, as a result of what he did. The FF FG nexus have exhausted credibility. Their clinging to power in this way will be a negative.
Before, what a party did after an election campaign was of no consequence because of the political culture, I am not so sure that will happen again.

Make of that what you will. I dare say those who partook in the deceit and nod and wink culture will have no issue. But they are a dying breed. IMO that is part of the changing politics here, that bull**** will not be tolerated.

Loafing Oaf

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I'm saying he won't be believed no matter what he says, as a result of what he did. The FF FG nexus have exhausted credibility. Their clinging to power in this way will be a negative.
Before, what a party did after an election campaign was of no consequence because of the political culture, I am not so sure that will happen again.

Make of that what you will. I dare say those who partook in the deceit and nod and wink culture will have no issue. But they are a dying breed. IMO that is part of the changing politics here, that bull**** will not be tolerated.

Why are FG neck and neck with SF in the opinion polls so, after being in government for a decade? If the voters were equally angry at both FG and FF and see them as inextricably linked, should they not both be in the doldrums?

FrancieBrady

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Why are FG neck and neck with SF in the opinion polls so, after being in government for a decade? If the voters were equally angry at both FG and FF and see them as inextricably linked, should they not both be in the doldrums?

Well, I think you have to look to the last election as it's the only metric we have.

FG were on the same 28-30% in the polls...then an election was called and they plummeted in the first poll carried out and stayed there and finished below both FF and SF.

How is that explained? Are they choosing between FF and FG when answering a poll question mid government cycle? Were people 'holding their nose' and opting for SF or anyone but FG or FF reluctantly when an election was called? Could it happen that the same thing will happen next time?

We'll see.

jmcc

FrancieBrady wrote: »

FG were on the same 28-30% in the polls...then an election was called and they plummeted in the first poll carried out and stayed there and finished below both FF and SF.

1. Black and Tans/RIC commemoration by the neo-Unionist Charlie Tan'agan.
2. Housing.
3. Incompetent leader.

Regards...jmcc

FrancieBrady

jmcc wrote: »

1. Black and Tans/RIC commemoration by the neo-Unionist Charlie Tan'agan.
2. Housing.
3. Incompetent leader.

Regards...jmcc

Yes, but up at the 30% until an election was called...then down to near what they finished on in the election.

Are the polls flattering to deceive in FG's case exclusively? It's an interesting one.

blanch152

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Well, I think you have to look to the last election as it's the only metric we have.

FG were on the same 28-30% in the polls...then an election was called and they plummeted in the first poll carried out and stayed there and finished below both FF and SF.

How is that explained? Are they choosing between FF and FG when answering a poll question mid government cycle? Were people 'holding their nose' and opting for SF or anyone but FG or FF reluctantly when an election was called? Could it happen that the same thing will happen next time?

We'll see.

It isn't the only metric we have. We have many elections and many opinion polls to consider.

A FG collapse in the polls in one election isn't a trend, isn't a predictor, it may be a strange outlier.

FrancieBrady

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Well, I think you have to look to the last election as it's the only metric we have.

We'll see.

We will indeed see
SF should win the Dublin bay South By election so

Loafing Oaf

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Well, I think you have to look to the last election as it's the only metric we have.

FG were on the same 28-30% in the polls...then an election was called and they plummeted in the first poll carried out and stayed there and finished below both FF and SF.

How is that explained? Are they choosing between FF and FG when answering a poll question mid government cycle? Were people 'holding their nose' and opting for SF or anyone but FG or FF reluctantly when an election was called? Could it happen that the same thing will happen next time?

We'll see.

Well there was a lot of fluctuation in relative support for FF and FG in the last Dail. But in the current Dail FG's support has been consistently round double FF's in every opinion poll.
https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/ireland/
I don't think this can be dismissed as a statistical quirk; FF certainly aren't.
https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/politics/arid-40258550.html

jmcc

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Yes, but up at the 30% until an election was called...then down to near what they finished on in the election.

Are the polls flattering to deceive in FG's case exclusively? It's an interesting one.

The opinion polls generally crystalise within two weeks of the GE. The problem with using opinion polls to predict elections it that it is Astrology with a thin veneer of Numerology to give it some "scientific" credibility. Most of the polls are tiny samples of about 1K. They cannot provide any decent accuracy on regional or local elections because the number of people sampled is even smaller than the 1K. Now to the average political correspondent or party hack, such Mathematical issues do not matter as long as their party looks good.

The other aspect is that the political model shifted from a 2.5 party model (FF/FG/Labour) to a 3+n model where any two of the three largest parties do not have enough seats to form a government. I pointed this out on another site before the 2016 GE and even called the spread between the biggest and smallest of the 3 large parties. The 2020 GE was surprising because though FG was in for a drubbing, FF screwed up badly becaue of Martin's wannbe FG instincts. He did not go for the kill when Charlie Flanagan launched his Black and Tans/RIC commemoration. Any decent FF leader would have immediately used this to grind FG into the dirt. But Martin's neo-Unionist nature had him siding with Charlie Flanagan and the neo-Unionists.

Regards...jmcc

FrancieBrady

blanch152 wrote: »

It isn't the only metric we have. We have many elections and many opinion polls to consider.

A FG collapse in the polls in one election isn't a trend, isn't a predictor, it may be a strange outlier.

It could be (my hunch here I caution to add) a predictor of how the public perceive the end of civil war politics and the tacit merger of the two. I.E the core support has diminished even further.

SF have moved in there and gotten people to give them a go, people who heretofore wouldn't have considered it. Another pointer to the sea change brought about in the body politic. And a warning shot across the bows of the power swap that they have had great difficulty dealing with.

jmcc

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Well there was a lot of fluctuation in relative support for FF and FG in the last Dail. But in the current Dail FG's support has been consistently round double FF's in every opinion poll.
https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/ireland/
I don't think this can be dismissed as a statistical quirk; FF certainly aren't.
https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/politics/arid-40258550.html

Polls of polls are very dangerous because they are based on polls that use different methodolgies. At best they can give a rough approximation of the poll results but the problem is that some of the methodologies are not using random samples.

Regards...jmcc

FrancieBrady

jmcc wrote: »

The opinion polls generally crystalise within two weeks of the GE. The problem with using opinion polls to predict elections it that it is Astrology with a thin veneer of Numerology to give it some "scientific" credibility. Most of the polls are tiny samples of about 1K. They cannot provide any decent accuracy on regional or local elections because the number of people sampled is even smaller than the 1K. Now to the average political correspondent or party hack, such Mathematical issues do not matter as long as their party looks good.

The other aspect is that the political model shifted from a 2.5 party model (FF/FG/Labour) to a 3+n model where any two of the three largest parties do not have enough seats to form a government. I pointed this out on another site before the 2016 GE and even called the spread between the biggest and smallest of the 3 large parties. The 2020 GE was surprising because though FG was in for a drubbing, FF screwed up badly becaue of Martin's wannbe FG instincts. He did not go for the kill when Charlie Flanagan launched his Black and Tans/RIC commemoration. Any decent FF leader would have immediately used this to grind FG into the dirt. But Martin's neo-Unionist nature had him siding with Charlie Flanagan and the neo-Unionists.

Regards...jmcc

Totally agree on polls.

The game only really begins when an election or border poll is called.

The flux in polls is interesting to watch and discuss though.

blanch152

Getting back onto the topic of Sinn Fein and away from the off-topic meanderings about FG and opinion polls, the Abu database saga keeps on giving.

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/sinn-feins-abu-voter-database-is-taken-offlineagain-40368643.html

"However, now the second web portal has gone off line. Sinn Féin has not responded to questions about why it has been taken down.

Sinn Féin would also not say if the Abú system had been compromised again as Mr Cullinane suggested happened to the first portal."

What ARE they doing with all our data?

Shambolic, incompetent, illegal, which is it?

blanch152

FrancieBrady wrote: »

It could be (my hunch here I caution to add) a predictor of how the public perceive the end of civil war politics and the tacit merger of the two. I.E the core support has diminished even further.

SF have moved in there and gotten people to give them a go, people who heretofore wouldn't have considered it. Another pointer to the sea change brought about in the body politic. And a warning shot across the bows of the power swap that they have had great difficulty dealing with.

A more cynical view would be that those who voted FF because of their populist republican gombeen-style corruption politics have now just moved to SF, and little else has changed.

FrancieBrady

blanch152 wrote: »

Getting back onto the topic of Sinn Fein and away from the off-topic meanderings about FG and opinion polls, the Abu database saga keeps on giving.

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/sinn-feins-abu-voter-database-is-taken-offlineagain-40368643.html

"However, now the second web portal has gone off line. Sinn Féin has not responded to questions about why it has been taken down.

Sinn Féin would also not say if the Abú system had been compromised again as Mr Cullinane suggested happened to the first portal."

What ARE they doing with all our data?

Shambolic, incompetent, illegal, which is it?

Precautionary?

Fann Linn

blanch152 wrote: »

Getting back onto the topic of Sinn Fein and away from the off-topic meanderings about FG and opinion polls, the Abu database saga keeps on giving.

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/sinn-feins-abu-voter-database-is-taken-offlineagain-40368643.html

"However, now the second web portal has gone off line. Sinn Féin has not responded to questions about why it has been taken down.

Sinn Féin would also not say if the Abú system had been compromised again as Mr Cullinane suggested happened to the first portal."

What ARE they doing with all our data?

Shambolic, incompetent, illegal, which is it?

These things happen.
FG site was down last week.

FrancieBrady

blanch152 wrote: »

A more cynical view would be that those who voted FF because of their populist republican gombeen-style corruption politics have now just moved to SF, and little else has changed.

Had they moved to FG to bump them up by the 10% they lost between the last poll before the calling of the election and the election itself?

P.S. Will they be flocking back to FG now their leader is under criminal investigation under the corruption act? SF will be miffed!

blanch152

blanch152 wrote: »

Getting back onto the topic of Sinn Fein and away from the off-topic meanderings about FG and opinion polls, the Abu database saga keeps on giving.

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/sinn-feins-abu-voter-database-is-taken-offlineagain-40368643.html

"However, now the second web portal has gone off line. Sinn Féin has not responded to questions about why it has been taken down.

Sinn Féin would also not say if the Abú system had been compromised again as Mr Cullinane suggested happened to the first portal."

What ARE they doing with all our data?

Shambolic, incompetent, illegal, which is it?

It didn’t even have 2FA enabled on the portal. Pop up for username and password. Trivially easy for someone to brute force it if they were so inclined.

blanch152

Deleted User wrote: »

It didn’t even have 2FA enabled on the portal. Pop up for username and password. Trivially easy for someone to brute force it if they were so inclined.

There are huge issues over who had access to what data.

Jonathon Dowdall searching information on who is away for the election to pass to his criminal buddies, and resultant burglaries is just one avenue of potential abuse.

FrancieBrady

blanch152 wrote: »

There are huge issues over who had access to what data.

Jonathon Dowdall searching information on who is away for the election to pass to his criminal buddies, and resultant burglaries is just one avenue of potential abuse.

Anyone with access to data who is corrupt could do that in any organisation.

Try and stay in the realm of what the specific issues are here without the scaremongering.

blanch152

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Anyone with access to data who is corrupt could do that in any organisation.

Try and stay in the realm of what the specific issues are here without the scaremongering.

The point is that other organisations take steps such as limiting access to prevent such corrupt actions. Sinn Fein have not been able to confirm that they do so.

The larger the database, the more people who have access, the bigger the GDPR issue. The fact that David Cullinane has said the database was compromised should be setting off alarm bells. We are going far beyond the two breaches already admitted to.

We had one poster foolishly suggesting that because loads of people had access, it wasn't secret, so what was the problem!!!!

maccored

more non stories I see

FrancieBrady

blanch152 wrote: »

The point is that other organisations take steps such as limiting access to prevent such corrupt actions. Sinn Fein have not been able to confirm that they do so.

The larger the database, the more people who have access, the bigger the GDPR issue. The fact that David Cullinane has said the database was compromised should be setting off alarm bells. We are going far beyond the two breaches already admitted to.

We had one poster foolishly suggesting that because loads of people had access, it wasn't secret, so what was the problem!!!!

We still don't know the answers to all this. The DPC is investigating it.

Hasn't stopped you sensationalising it for your legendary political purposes though. You are also lying about what posters said too, posters who quoted what the original journalist said.

A website/data system that you hold conferences on and distribute material on how to use can only be conceived of as a 'secret' in the minds of desperate conspiracy theorists who fear things that live only in their own heads and under their beds or people with an agenda - the Shinisterists.

I see a number of Gardai charged with corruption today...should we mount a sensationalist campaign to see if they had access to data? :rolleyes:

blanch152

FrancieBrady wrote: »

We still don't know the answers to all this. The DPC is investigating it.

Hasn't stopped you sensationalising it for your legendary political purposes though. You are also lying about what posters said too, posters who quoted what the original journalist said.

A website/data system that you hold conferences on and distribute material on how to use can only be conceived of as a 'secret' in the minds of desperate conspiracy theorists who fear things that live only in their own heads and under their beds or people with an agenda - the Shinisterists.

I see a number of Gardai charged with corruption today...should we mount a sensationalist campaign to see if they had access to data? :rolleyes:

I didn't see any posters using the quote function or quote marks to quote journalists. I also didn't see any journalist say that because all had access it was hardly secret. Maybe you could link to the journalist who said that?

As for the Gardai, they were caught because of the protocols and checks in place. Of course, they had access to data, and misused it, but they got caught. It is the databases without security, without checks, and with criminals accessing it that we should worry most about, hence the focus on Abu.

FrancieBrady

blanch152 wrote: »

I didn't see any posters using the quote function or quote marks to quote journalists. I also didn't see any journalist say that because all had access it was hardly secret. Maybe you could link to the journalist who said that?

We all interpret what journalists say. Despite me clarifying again and again you STILL choose to lie. Says a lot.

As for the Gardai, they were caught because of the protocols and checks in place. Of course, they had access to data, and misused it, but they got caught. It is the databases without security, without checks, and with criminals accessing it that we should worry most about, hence the focus on Abu.

The 'criminal' who is no longer a member of the party, since 2016? The database you know nothing about as yet?

The gardai were were caught because of an investigation.
An investigation into Abu is under way, perhaps let it conclude and give up the sensationalism. If SF have breached the protocols then they should be fined and made comply with the regulations as should anyone else who is not compliant.

Fann Linn

FrancieBrady wrote: »

We still don't know the answers to all this. The DPC is investigating it.

Hasn't stopped you sensationalising it for your legendary political purposes though. You are also lying about what posters said too, posters who quoted what the original journalist said.

A website/data system that you hold conferences on and distribute material on how to use can only be conceived of as a 'secret' in the minds of desperate conspiracy theorists who fear things that live only in their own heads and under their beds or people with an agenda - the Shinisterists.

I see a number of Gardai charged with corruption today...should we mount a sensationalist campaign to see if they had access to data? :rolleyes:

The arrest of those Gardai also illustrates how difficult it is for any organisation, grouping or even a political party to assess and ensure their members are honest and upstanding.