The wondrous adventures of Sinn Fein (part 3) Mod Notes and Threadbanned List in OP

maccored

jh79 wrote: »

I'm not the one looking for a date to be set, Francie is!

I don't know what the people of NI will want in the future and neither do you. We can be prepared but setting a firm date cannot be justified currently under the GFA.

you are the one jumping the gun and assuming that after a discussion people wouldnt want a poll. as I said - cart before the horse.

jh79

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Yours s based on opinion...like mine.

The 'evidence' for either 'opinion' will only be found in an actual border poll.

No, that wrong too. My theory / opinion is based on evidence, the border poll will only confirm if my theory / opinion is right. In either outcome my opinion is still based on evidence.

You on the other hand have not provided evidence that a border poll would be likely to pass. Factors that might influence voting patterns are not evidence without something linking them to empirical data.

jh79

maccored wrote: »

you are the one jumping the gun and assuming that after a discussion people wouldnt want a poll. as I said - cart before the horse.

I'm not. I'm saying we do the preparation and then see what the lay of the land is. Francie wants a border poll once the preparation is none without any consideration for public opinion at the time.

I think you and I are closer in outlook on this than you and Francie!

FrancieBrady

blanch152 wrote: »

And as an indicator they are a necessary but not sufficient piece of evidence required for a border poll.

Neither 'necessary' nor 'legally required'.

The wind will continue to blow and we know which way it blowing.

maccored

jh79 wrote: »

I'm not. I'm saying we do the preparation and then see what the lay of the land is. Francie wants a border poll once the preparation is none without any consideration for public opinion at the time.

I think you and I are closer in outlook on this than you and Francie!

the main difference bwteen our outlook is I can see why francie would hope for a poll at the end of it. you have no reason to assume the outcome - yet you are giving out about francie assuming the outcome.

FrancieBrady

jh79 wrote: »

No, that wrong too. My theory / opinion is based on evidence, the border poll will only confirm if my theory / opinion is right. In either outcome my opinion is still based on evidence.

You on the other hand have not provided evidence that a border poll would be likely to pass. Factors that might influence voting patterns are not evidence without something linking them to empirical data.

So how is a question phrased 'Will you vote for a UI tomorrow' to which even I would answer 'no' to at this time, be 'evidence' of what people want? It is only an answer to that question.

Make sense please.

maccored

blanch152 wrote: »

No, do you have a link to this?

I am aware of another scandal involving 180k cash from nowhere being used to buy Pearse Doherty's office which is being investigated by SIPO, but this is a new one.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p09bnl1b

dept of finance changed the criteria - not exactly the same as the RHI scandal (which has still to be resolved)

jh79

FrancieBrady wrote: »

So how is a question phrased 'Will you vote for a UI tomorrow' to which even I would answer 'no' to at this time, be 'evidence' of what people want? It is only an answer to that question.

Make sense please.

It is evidence of what people want now. So you are not in favor of unification presently but you may change your mind in the future and that is why we have regular polls to see if public opinion is changing.

Pretty obvious i would of thought.

FrancieBrady

jh79 wrote: »

It is evidence of what people want now. So you are not in favor of unification presently but you may change your mind in the future and that is why we have regular polls to see if public opinion is changing.

Pretty obvious i would of thought.

You can't even read the answer properly.

I AM in favour of unification, I do not think voting in favour of it 'tomorrow' would be right.

That is all the opinion you can gather from that poll. You cannot extrapolate from it what any one of those polled would do if there was a poll in 2-5-or 10 years time.

Therefore you cannot say that it would be wrong/anti the GFA etc etc and any other block you want to come up with, to call a poll in 2-5 or 10 years time.

jh79

FrancieBrady wrote: »

You can't even read the answer properly.

I AM in favour of unification, I do not think voting in favour of it 'tomorrow' would be right.

That is all the opinion you can gather from that poll. You cannot extrapolate from it what any one of those polled would do if there was a poll in 2-5-or 10 years time.

Therefore you cannot say that it would be wrong/anti the GFA etc etc and any other block you want to come up with, to call a poll in 2-5 or 10 years time.

Looks like you've lost track of your own argument. I agree with the underlined completely therefore you cannot say a border poll should be called within a certain timeframe. You cannot say with any confidence that a border poll would be more likely to pass ,as per the GFA, in 2025. We know presently that the majority do not want a UI. They might in the future but we will just have to wait and see.

The Republic having a plan will certainly influence voters but its completion in no way justifies a border poll under the terms of the GFA.

FrancieBrady

jh79 wrote: »

Looks like you've lost track of your own argument. I agree with the underlined completely therefore you cannot say a border poll should be called within a certain timeframe. You cannot say with any confidence that a border poll would be more likely to pass ,as per the GFA, in 2025. We know presently that the majority do not want a UI. They might in the future but we will just have to wait and see.

The Republic having a plan will certainly influence voters but its completion in no way justifies a border poll under the terms of the GFA.

You cannot say...if you are basing your decision solely on opinion polls.

Again, all we know from the latest opinion poll is that a majority would not vote for a UI 'tomorrow'.

There are no 'terms' in the GFA governing opinion polls and no amount of grandstanding from you will insert them.

jimmycrackcorm

jh79 wrote: »

So how did you come to the conclusion that a border poll should happen now rather than 5 years ago if opinion polls mean so little?

It's all fluff talk by SF. Once a serious debate gets underway and northerners really start to think about losing their NHS in favour of the HSE, moderate nationalists will happily stay with the status quo.

There's no chance we can provide the equivalent of the NHS here. It's simply unaffordable with our cost base and unions unwilling to restructure.

jh79

FrancieBrady wrote: »

You cannot say...if you are basing your decision solely on opinion polls.

Again, all we know from the latest opinion poll is that a majority would not vote for a UI 'tomorrow'.

There are no 'terms' in the GFA governing opinion polls and no amount of grandstanding from you will insert them.

Might never be one, might never be "likely to pass". Setting a date now without considering public opinion is not adhering to the GFA.

jh79

jimmycrackcorm wrote: »

It's all fluff talk by SF. Once a serious debate gets underway and northerners really start to think about losing their NHS in favour of the HSE, moderate nationalists will happily stay with the status quo.

There's no chance we can provide the equivalent of the NHS here. It's simply unaffordable with our cost base and unions unwilling to restructure.

They are afraid it's now or never. Brexit is the biggest thing to happen to NI since the GFA. Then we have the pandemic too. Yet the majority wish to remain in the uk. This could be as small as the gap gets. Once Brexit stabilises and the pandemic is over unification will be forgotten about again. SF know this hence the desperation to get a border poll asap.

FrancieBrady

jh79 wrote: »

Might never be one, might never be "likely to pass". Setting a date now without considering public opinion is not adhering to the GFA.

Quote where it says anything about 'public opinion' in the GFA?

The critieria is 'if it appears likely to the SoS that a poll would pass'.

Subsequent challenges in court on that has found that the SoS can come to that opinion howsoever he /she wishes. There are no constraints/criteria that he/she has to meet.

blanch152

FrancieBrady wrote: »

You cannot say...if you are basing your decision solely on opinion polls.

Again, all we know from the latest opinion poll is that a majority would not vote for a UI 'tomorrow'.

There are no 'terms' in the GFA governing opinion polls and no amount of grandstanding from you will insert them.

There are no terms in the GFA ruling out the use of opinion polls either.

The SOS has to make up his mind that it is likely that a poll will pass. There are few things to guide him. A majority of seats in the Assembly held by parties taking the label nationalist is one obvious sign - I don't see that happening ever though, as the unaligned will grow stronger.

The only other obvious sign is a succession of opinion polls where there is a majority in favour of unity and that majority is greater than the margin of error of the relevant polls.

I really don't see what other things there are to guide him in this. The South having a plan is a useful thing, but doesn't hold water if there is still no change in view up North. No amount of posturing by Michelle or Mary-Lou should have influence.

Tell us your criteria for determining whether a border poll should happen.

FrancieBrady

jh79 wrote: »

They are afraid it's now or never. Brexit is the biggest thing to happen to NI since the GFA. Then we have the pandemic too. Yet the majority wish to remain in the uk. This could be as small as the gap gets. Once Brexit stabilises and the pandemic is over unification will be forgotten about again. SF know this hence the desperation to get a border poll asap.

Head in the sand stuff. There are many more discussing a UI now and saying it is inevitable. Unionists are against the protocol because they know it will push the two jurisdictions closer together - the protocol is staying.

blanch152

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Quote where it says anything about 'public opinion' in the GFA?

The critieria is 'if it appears likely to the SoS that a poll would pass'.

Subsequent challenges in court on that has found that the SoS can come to that opinion howsoever he /she wishes. There are no constraints/criteria that he/she has to meet.

And if he ever does come to that opinion, he can be challenged on it, if it is manifestly based on nothing. No challenge can be brought to an opinion that has not yet been formed, that was the outcome of the court challenge, not what you think it was.

blanch152

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Head in the sand stuff. There are many more discussing a UI now and saying it is inevitable. Unionists are against the protocol because they know it will push the two jurisdictions closer together - the protocol is staying.

The protocol may stay, but it may turn people against a united Ireland.

FrancieBrady

blanch152 wrote: »

There are no terms in the GFA ruling out the use of opinion polls either.

The SOS has to make up his mind that it is likely that a poll will pass. There are few things to guide him. A majority of seats in the Assembly held by parties taking the label nationalist is one obvious sign - I don't see that happening ever though, as the unaligned will grow stronger.

The only other obvious sign is a succession of opinion polls where there is a majority in favour of unity and that majority is greater than the margin of error of the relevant polls.

I really don't see what other things there are to guide him in this. The South having a plan is a useful thing, but doesn't hold water if there is still no change in view up North. No amount of posturing by Michelle or Mary-Lou should have influence.

Tell us your criteria for determining whether a border poll should happen.

The ongoing mess that is partition was always good enough criteria for me blanch.

blanch152

jimmycrackcorm wrote: »

It's all fluff talk by SF. Once a serious debate gets underway and northerners really start to think about losing their NHS in favour of the HSE, moderate nationalists will happily stay with the status quo.

There's no chance we can provide the equivalent of the NHS here. It's simply unaffordable with our cost base and unions unwilling to restructure.

I think the vaccine outcome has put the final nail in the coffin of a united Ireland. People in the North have been vaccinated and rightly or wrongly they will see the failure to vaccinate in the South as a reason not to vote for unity. They will also put that down to the success of Boris and London in getting the vaccines for them, that is a hugely symbolic outcome.

It is also an ironic outcome, given that when the figures eventually wash through, it is likely to be clear that the South performed much better overall. That won't carry much weight, it is the visual and newsworthy aspect of the rapid vaccinations which will win the popular vote.

blanch152

FrancieBrady wrote: »

The ongoing mess that is partition was always good enough criteria for me blanch.

Obviously not any more, given the views you expressed moments ago.

FrancieBrady wrote: »

a question phrased 'Will you vote for a UI tomorrow' to which even I would answer 'no' to at this time.

FrancieBrady

blanch152 wrote: »

Obviously not any more, given the views you expressed moments ago.

What are you trying to misrepresent my view as now?

Partition needs to end but not without proper preparation for it.

Think before you jump to conclusions blanch.

Bubbaclaus

This conversation would probably be better suited for the UI thread?

jh79

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Quote where it says anything about 'public opinion' in the GFA?

The critieria is 'if it appears likely to the SoS that a poll would pass'.

Subsequent challenges in court on that has found that the SoS can come to that opinion howsoever he /she wishes. There are no constraints/criteria that he/she has to meet.

But you still have not justified your claim that a border poll should happen within a set time frame irrespective of opinion polls! People talking about it isn't evidence that it is likely to pass.

Are you suggesting that opinion polls should not influence his decision even in the case of a majority for unification?

Fionn1952

blanch152 wrote: »

And if he ever does come to that opinion, he can be challenged on it, if it is manifestly based on nothing. No challenge can be brought to an opinion that has not yet been formed, that was the outcome of the court challenge, not what you think it was.

A genuine question here; if there are no defined criteria that the SoS has to provide to justify his or her opinion, are there any grounds which require the SoS at the time to even present the criteria he or she used to justify that decision?

If the SoS declares that (s)he feels it is likely to pass and is under no obligation to declare the criteria used to come to that decision, under what grounds would a legal challenge proceed? If the criteria used isn't presented, how could it form the basis of a challenge?

If I'm not mistaken, the language of the GFA states that a border poll shall be called if the SoS feels it is likely to pass, not whether or not it is actually likely to pass. Even in the ridiculous situation where the SoS felt that it was likely to pass because a local psychic told him/her that it would and the SoS openly told everyone this, I don't see the grounds for legal challenge; the SoS felt it was likely to pass, so that criteria has been met no matter how ridiculous anyone else thinks that reasoning is?

I'm asking to clarify for my own understanding, not to stake out and defend a position.


And just in case someone decides to go there, I am absolutely not suggesting that I would support calling a border poll on the back of a psychic reading.

jh79

FrancieBrady wrote: »

The ongoing mess that is partition was always good enough criteria for me blanch.

You said only a few posts back you would vote no if called tomorrow!

FrancieBrady

jh79 wrote: »

But you still have not justified your claim that a border poll should happen within a set time frame irrespective of opinion polls! People talking about it isn't evidence that it is likely to pass.

Are you suggesting that opinion polls should not influence his decision even in the case of a majority for unification?

I don't have to justify anything, nor does the SoS. That's the point.

FrancieBrady

Fionn1952 wrote: »

A genuine question here; if there are no defined criteria that the SoS has to provide to justify his or her opinion, are there any grounds which require the SoS at the time to even present the criteria he or she used to justify that decision?

If the SoS declares that (s)he feels it is likely to pass and is under no obligation to declare the criteria used to come to that decision, under what grounds would a legal challenge proceed? If the criteria used isn't presented, how could it form the basis of a challenge?

If I'm not mistaken, the language of the GFA states that a border poll shall be called if the SoS feels it is likely to pass, not whether or not it is actually likely to pass. Even in the ridiculous situation where the SoS felt that it was likely to pass because a local psychic told him/her that it would and the SoS openly told everyone this, I don't see the grounds for legal challenge; the SoS felt it was likely to pass, so that criteria has been met no matter how ridiculous anyone else thinks that reasoning is?

I'm asking to clarify for my own understanding, not to stake out and defend a position.


And just in case someone decides to go there, I am absolutely not suggesting that I would support calling a border poll on the back of a psychic reading.

If you read the outcome of the McCord case, that is exactly what the judge said. That the SoS cannot be constrained by having to evidence his/her decision.

Presumably that is to prevent anyone having a veto, because there could arise a situation where polls trend towards a UI and somebody could challenge him/her to call a poll. Works both ways.

jh79

Fionn1952 wrote: »

A genuine question here; if there are no defined criteria that the SoS has to provide to justify his or her opinion, are there any grounds which require the SoS at the time to even present the criteria he or she used to justify that decision?

If the SoS declares that (s)he feels it is likely to pass and is under no obligation to declare the criteria used to come to that decision, under what grounds would a legal challenge proceed? If the criteria used isn't presented, how could it form the basis of a challenge?

If I'm not mistaken, the language of the GFA states that a border poll shall be called if the SoS feels it is likely to pass, not whether or not it is actually likely to pass. Even in the ridiculous situation where the SoS felt that it was likely to pass because a local psychic told him/her that it would and the SoS openly told everyone this, I don't see the grounds for legal challenge; the SoS felt it was likely to pass, so that criteria has been met no matter how ridiculous anyone else thinks that reasoning is?

I'm asking to clarify for my own understanding, not to stake out and defend a position.


And just in case someone decides to go there, I am absolutely not suggesting that I would support calling a border poll on the back of a psychic reading.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/british-government-declines-to-set-out-criteria-for-a-border-poll-1.4457745

Francie won't like this bit;

The letter states that the secretary of state must “have regard to reasonable factors and make a judgement based on objective, reliable and emperical evidence”.

Correct me if I am mistaken but opinion polls are empirical evidence!