Cold Spell - Feb 7th to 13th 2021 - Chat

Burts Bee

Neddyusa wrote: »

Cold and dry til Wednesday

And then?!!

nacho libre

Burts Bee wrote: »

And then?!![/QUOTE

Dude where is my car?!!

The possibility of heavy frontal snow

Reversal

nacho libre wrote: »

If i could ever bank a run it would be the latest ECM! A snowy run for many and the cold hangs on for 8 days. Thats more than a brief cold spell in my view!

Looking at the fax charts, the forecast thickness is uninspiring. Any thoughts?

almostthere12

nacho libre wrote: »

If i could ever bank a run it would be the latest ECM! A snowy run for many and the cold hangs on for 8 days. Thats more than a brief cold spell in my view!

Looks a good one alright, quite similar to GFS para.......have the stars aligned.....I mean charts!!!

Chalkitdown147

This is definitely a nowcast situation. The major thing needed ie cold is on the way, just need other elements to come into line now. Dublin, at the beginning, *could* see some good accumulations but as was said earlier when I see the first flakes then I'll be more certain!

Calibos

Got Yaktrax Snow grips for all the families boots/shoes a few weeks ago after the Bray Ninja Snow early January. Ordered new passenger-side Wingmirror glass that some cheapskate stole for the work/delivery van....and a set of Snow Socks for the front wheels. We deliver your newspaper hail, rain or.......Blizzards. Ordered those yesterday as the models where firming up and coalescing on a few days of snow here in the east at minimum. UPS 1 day shipping from Dublin should mean they arrive in Bray this evening or tomorrow morning at the latest. Will do a bigger than normal Cash&Carry run on Friday and order extra milk and bread in for Monday Morning. Saturday I'll do a 10 day Grocery Shop.

I AM READY!!!

:D

nacho libre

Reversal wrote: »

Looking at the fax charts, the forecast thickness is uninspiring. Any thoughts?

It could be better, but i think we will still do ok. Although i would defer to GL on this as he is the expert on these matters.

Mimon

Calibos wrote: »

Got Yaktrax Snow grips for all the families boots/shoes a few weeks ago after the Bray Ninja Snow early January. Ordered new passenger-side Wingmirror glass that some cheapskate stole for the work/delivery van....and a set of Snow Socks for the front wheels. We deliver your newspaper hail, rain or.......Blizzards. Ordered those yesterday as the models where firming up and coalescing on a few days of snow here in the east at minimum. UPS 1 day shipping from Dublin should mean they arrive in Bray this evening or tomorrow morning at the latest. Will do a bigger than normal Cash&Carry run on Friday and order extra milk and bread in for Monday Morning. Saturday I'll do a 10 day Grocery Shop.

I AM READY!!!

:D

No mention of booze :D

munsterlegend

nacho libre wrote: »

If i could ever bank a run it would be the latest ECM! A snowy run for many and the cold hangs on for 8 days. Thats more than a brief cold spell in my view!

Yep and it’s not the GFS either which is prone to crazy runs.

Pangea

Pangea wrote: »

Do these broadcast on any TV channel?

Yes,they directly provide the forecast maps for itv news Inc utv

TTLF

When the Atlantic low comes in there at the end of the week and brings in the prolonged snow for awhile I'm just in shock :eek::D

Here's praying to good streamer lines too before then from Sunday night.

nacho libre

nacho libre wrote: »

It could be better, but i think we will still do ok. Although i would defer to GL on this as he is the expert on these matters.

Going on the forecast for the UK,I don't think thickness will be as much an issue as you will have freezing surface winds off UK snow fields

Seems mad talking about this in the current 8c temps

munsterlegend

TTLF wrote: »

When the Atlantic low comes in there at the end of the week and brings in the prolonged snow for awhile I'm just in shock :eek::D

Here's praying to good streamer lines too before then from Sunday night.

That’s a world away at this stage. Nice to see but the odds of it working out like that are not high.

now online

Do any of you see the Cork snow shield failing ( please say yes, please say yes! )

igCorcaigh

TTLF wrote: »

When the Atlantic low comes in there at the end of the week and brings in the prolonged snow for awhile I'm just in shock :eek::D

Here's praying to good streamer lines too before then from Sunday night.

I'm just hoping the Low does not melt over the South Coast and drench Cork in rain!

obi604

obi604 wrote: »

Just curious really
Why the mention of who did the forecast?

Because we always say who,at least I do
That far out on the type of forecast that the 5 to 8 is,what Siobhán said was measured and plenty
Forecasts for them aren't going to be easy in the next week as you have to be measured and accurate and don't have the leeway for all the speculation we do here
That said,I'd expect from Sunday onwards,their forecasts to be a lot wintrier as this thing is like a great big truck driving down at us

now online

now online wrote: »

Do any of you see the Cork snow shield failing ( please say yes, please say yes! )

I'm reasonably confident that at times shower trains will come in there
Not always marginal
Its less certain down there as there's more scope for to be on the mild side of Atlantic pushes especially on the coast

TheMilkyPirate

MT mentioning mixing down below the midlands counties this morning. 850s look good to me for the entire east coast from Sunday evening onwards, Any reason why there would be mixing further south?

munsterlegend

TheMilkyPirate wrote: »

MT mentioning mixing down below the midlands counties this morning. 850s look good to me for the entire east coast from Sunday evening onwards, Any reason why there would be mixing further south?

Not so sure about that either. This isn’t an Atlantic airflow and uppers don’t have to be as favourable.

TheMilkyPirate

TheMilkyPirate wrote: »

MT mentioning mixing down below the midlands counties this morning. 850s look good to me for the entire east coast from Sunday evening onwards, Any reason why there would be mixing further south?

I think that's not settled, it's really him talking about the models now,things will change
For instance a scenario I mentioned up thread,*if* the UK gets as much snow as expected, that's going to mean colder surface air advection to Ireland on top of all the other factors promoting cold mitigating any mixing
Edit
Just to clarify MT is talking about mixed precip types because of less cold uppers
Not the maritime mixing kind

Rebelbrowser

An Ri rua wrote: »

White '47...

Just following up on some mails here, as I've just posted in Greater depth in the technical thread, Im a bit surprised at MTs downbeat forecast for the south. When I saw the models this morning I was delighted.

TheMilkyPirate

AuntySnow wrote: »

I think that's not settled, it's really him talking about the models now,things will change
For instance a scenario I mentioned up thread,*if* the UK gets as much snow as expected, that's going to mean colder surface air advection to Ireland on top of all the other factors promoting cold mitigating any mixing
Edit
Just to clarify MT is talking about mixed precip types because of less cold uppers
Not the maritime mixing kind

Yeah I got the impression he was just covering most angles. Hopefully marginality won't be a problem for most!

Rebelbrowser

No idea why that came up as a reply to the White 47 post either (though that did make me laugh)

TheMilkyPirate

TheMilkyPirate wrote: »

Yeah I got the impression he was just covering most angles. Hopefully marginality won't be a problem for most!

I don't think it will in the Enniscorthy area anyway

TheMilkyPirate

AuntySnow wrote: »

I don't think it will in the Enniscorthy area anyway

Don't associate me with Enniscorthy! I'm just outside Wexford town it won't be a problem here at 200m but I've young family I've promised snow in town so hopefully we're good to go.

ninebeanrows

GFS 6z looking a little better in the short term- very cold 850hPa temps pushing in Sunday night

leahyl

Interesting article

http://www.rte.ie/brainstorm/2021/0204/1194969-sudden-stratospheric-warming-event-polar-vortex-snow-ice-beast-from-the-east/

ninebeanrows

We aren't far away now

ninebeanrows

Steady streamers coming ashore with nice build up of snow

KingdomRushed

The 6z is a very significant upgrade again so far. It looks like it will delay the breakdown out even longer. Cold uppers by Monday now extending well past the west coast into the Atlantic. Atlantic systems weakening and sliding

Rebelbrowser

ninebeanrows wrote: »

We aren't far away now

Again, really not seeing any south coast marginality there.....

igCorcaigh

Imagine...

https://twitter.com/DerekTheWeather/status/1357269229440036867?s=19

Calibos

ninebeanrows wrote: »

We aren't far away now

Irish sea SST's are about 8ºc atm. -12ºc 850's over it equals the magic 20ºc temperature differential.

Explosive convection and Thundersnow???

Little snowy old me

Whilst it is great to see a cold spell coming in, any snow appears to be restricted to the east. I'm expecting nothing in Donegal or Sligo. We never do well with these setups. But look if we get a few hard drying cold days, it's better than the rain and drizzle and the ground is fairly sodden here.

I don't like these battlefront scenarios that some are talking about midweek. 99%of the time if you have a front moving up giving wet heavy snow, you know there's milder air behind it and any accumulations will be gone in a few hours. I'd prefer a good blast from the North.

nacho libre

Re the potential frontal snowfall, for the cold to hang on its better it does not get as far as Ulster, but hopefully it won't start trending too far south either

TheMilkyPirate

There's a page on Facebook called Irish weather online who are using MT's forecasts word for word every day. Doesn't seem to be any credit given or is it someone form here?

nacho libre

Little snowy old me wrote: »

Whilst it is great to see a cold spell coming in, any snow appears to be restricted to the east. I'm expecting nothing in Donegal or Sligo. We never do well with these setups. But look if we get a few hard drying cold days, it's better than the rain and drizzle and the ground is fairly sodden here.

I don't like these battlefront scenarios that some are talking about midweek. 99%of the time if you have a front moving up giving wet heavy snow, you know there's milder air behind it and any accumulations will be gone in a few hours. I'd prefer a good blast from the North.

The longer this goes on the greater the chance of winds swinging around to a more favourable direction for you to get snowfall.

Gaoth Laidir

TheMilkyPirate wrote: »

There's a page on Facebook called Irish weather online who are using MT's forecasts word for word every day. Doesn't seem to be any credit given or is it someone form here?

MT is a member of IWO.

Tom Cruises Left Nut

TheMilkyPirate wrote: »

There's a page on Facebook called Irish weather online who are using MT's forecasts word for word every day. Doesn't seem to be any credit given or is it someone form here?

It is MT

nacho libre

TheMilkyPirate wrote: »

There's a page on Facebook called Irish weather online who are using MT's forecasts word for word every day. Doesn't seem to be any credit given or is it someone form here?

I think he is involved with that site?

TheMilkyPirate

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

MT is a member of IWO.

Tom Cruises Left Nut wrote: »

It is MT

Ah very good, thanks

munsterlegend

nacho libre wrote: »

Re the potential frontal snowfall, for the cold to hang on its better it does not get as far as Ulster, but hopefully it won't start trending too far south either

If it was rain it would hit us like a bullseye!

Tyrone212

nacho libre wrote: »

Re the potential frontal snowfall, for the cold to hang on its better it does not get as far as Ulster, but hopefully it won't start trending too far south either

Depends where you live lol

Davaeo09

For once in my life I thibk people e need to not take Mt's forecast so literal

While a god among mortals he is also analysing charts 6 hours old nearly by the time most of us are reading

Every run since his forecast has been an upgrade

Don't be so down beat yet people
keep the faith

TheMilkyPirate

TheMilkyPirate wrote: »

There's a page on Facebook called Irish weather online who are using MT's forecasts word for word every day. Doesn't seem to be any credit given or is it someone form here?

That page has been around for years,it's actually run by Mt and Oneiric and 1 or 2 more from here
They're also on twitter

munsterlegend

Davaeo09 wrote: »

For once in my life I thibk people e need to not take Mt's forecast so literal

While a god among mortals he is also analysing charts 6 hours old nearly by the time most of us are reading

Every run since his forecast has been an upgrade

Don't be so down beat yet people
keep the faith

He is outlining a range of possibilities which is no harm to dampen expectations.

Davaeo09

munsterlegend wrote: »

He is outlining a range of possibilities which is no harm to dampen expectations.

True but people taking it as gospel might be pleasantly surprised because as we have noted today's charts seem to remove any room for error with these margins down south

Still early

I wouldn't dare contradict him BTW. Reading his forecasts since my college days in carlow. (had 2 big snow years 2010-2011)

Nqp15hhu

Little snowy old me wrote: »

Whilst it is great to see a cold spell coming in, any snow appears to be restricted to the east. I'm expecting nothing in Donegal or Sligo. We never do well with these setups. But look if we get a few hard drying cold days, it's better than the rain and drizzle and the ground is fairly sodden here.

I don't like these battlefront scenarios that some are talking about midweek. 99%of the time if you have a front moving up giving wet heavy snow, you know there's milder air behind it and any accumulations will be gone in a few hours. I'd prefer a good blast from the North.

I agree with you. I am not keen on these fronts either.

I would prefer they stay away and we get snow out of a trough.

Nqp15hhu

nacho libre wrote: »

Re the potential frontal snowfall, for the cold to hang on its better it does not get as far as Ulster, but hopefully it won't start trending too far south either

So basically we get nothing

lucernarian

munsterlegend wrote: »

He is outlining a range of possibilities which is no harm to dampen expectations.

Yeah, total overreaction to what is a potential outlined on some ensembles. The most populated areas of the south coast are also near the coastline and this is the stark reality when it comes to even slightly marginal temps. As for milder air incursions, if the general trend on models verify then these may only raise temperatures for half a day or so during the otherwise-cold synoptics - rather than an even north-south divide for the whole week.