Cold Spell - Feb 7th to 13th 2021 - Chat

Larbre34

Its always a bit of chicken and egg with temps. Establish a snow field and even with a slack but persistent easterly flow, deep night cold will come. Christmas morning of 2010 was - 15C over snow at my location.

Gonzo

snowstorm445 wrote: »

Somewhere in between at the moment but closer to BFTE. Although it's worth noting that a massive blizzard on the scale of Storm Emma that followed the BFTE isn't on the charts (as of right now).

If this mornings ECM ends up verifying there is some frontal snow potential later next week, will see will if this evenings ECM continues this trend.






The GFS does not show this and brings mild atlantic air back in with ease from Wednesday/Thursday so alot of uncertainty about the second half of next week.

D9Male

https://amz.netweather.tv/monthly_2021_02/0D096A36-5E02-415C-B10E-AEEDC1DA3D75.gif.9f74a3745b74207988300f6d3ce8d66f.gif

I should add that I have just had a look at the UKMO model, which is a lot more positive. See above for what we are ideally looking for with a low heading below us over France.

That said, there is a constant bias towards favouring the "best" model for snow, which changes depending on the output. Unfortunately, the GFS has been on the money more frequently on treatment of Atlantic lows this winter (in my limited experience).

No Bills

Chalkitdown147 wrote: »

Looooong time weather boards lurker, first time poster!! Quick q for any of the enthusiasts in here. A ENE which is being metioned, who is in line for a IOM shadow??

You can already see the projected impact of the Isle of Man shadow on the Met Eireann Rainfall Forecast (7 day). However, as others more qualified than me have pointed out, the impact will depend on the actual wind direction at the time.

bb1234567

Is this snow event legit now? Or is there still a chance of it falling through? Just gotta say, quite surprised by how sudden all this is!

D9Male

D9Male wrote: »

https://amz.netweather.tv/monthly_2021_02/0D096A36-5E02-415C-B10E-AEEDC1DA3D75.gif.9f74a3745b74207988300f6d3ce8d66f.gif

I should add that I have just had a look at the UKMO model, which is a lot more positive. See above for what we are ideally looking for with a low heading below us over France.

That said, there is a constant bias towards favouring the "best" model for snow, which changes depending on the output. Unfortunately, the GFS has been on the money more frequently on treatment of Atlantic lows this winter (in my limited experience).

I’m more of a watcher of model watcher’s than a model watcher myself but from what people are saying here and on NW that’s not true of this event. The GFS has been too progressive and mild on its op, disagreeing with its own ensembles and the other models and their ensembles.

The UKmo is fairly accurate in the reliable timeframe. That’s their actual weather forecast after all. They don’t try to create panic where unnecessary.

bb1234567

bb1234567 wrote: »

Is this snow event legit now? Or is there still a chance of it falling through? Just gotta say, quite surprised by how sudden all this is!

Sudden? That’s fighting talk.

ongarboy

KingJeremy wrote: »

Agreed. Is this because most of the weather experts on here are in the Dublin region or is it just that the Dublin area is in the firing line for this event? I can never tell

In fairness, if 30% of the population of Ireland live in County Dublin as per last census, it's reasonable to expect that approximately up to one third of posts here may be Dublin-centric. Combine this with the high density in a small land area so that when snow does fall in Dublin, up to a million + people are potentially in the firing line. Snow falling in a same area size in a sparsely populated rural area will only have a fraction of impacted population...and correspondingly less posts about it. It's not abandonment, just per capita proportionality...which often seems like domination!

Oneiric 3

Reckless Abandonment wrote: »

As long as we get snow i don't care how cold it gets

Fair enough, but it would be nice to get some decent temps for the rest of us to remember this easterly by. ICON, which handles temps fairly OK and which only goes out to 120hrs, has minima something akin to a flat tyre on Mon morn:



Perhaps once the colder air become entrenched in the days after, that something a bit more compelling regarding temps will be in the offing.

TheMilkyPirate

bb1234567 wrote: »

Is this snow event legit now? Or is there still a chance of it falling through? Just gotta say, quite surprised by how sudden all this is!

I'd say it's about 85% legit. If this evenings ECM is all go then you can be pretty sure.

And sudden is a bit of a stretch this has been discussed on here since maybe the 24th January!

Oneiric 3

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Perhaps once the colder air become entrenched in the days after, that something a bit more compelling regarding temps will be in the offing.

Surely it will. With the 6-10 feet of snow I expect in the east on average, the temperatures will fall much lower than the models can predict right now.

So out west you will get some deep frosts. And a few flaks of snow. :pac::P

Oneiric 3

Deleted User wrote: »

Surely it will. With the 6-10 feet of snow I expect in the east on average, the temperatures will fall much lower than the models can predict right now.

So out west you will get some deep frosts. And a few flaks of snow. :pac::P

Couldn't care less about the snow. We badly need some dry weather.

compsys

TheMilkyPirate wrote: »

I'd say it's about 85% legit. If this evenings ECM is all go then you can be pretty sure.

And sudden is a bit of a stretch this has been discussed on here since maybe the 24th January!

In fairness we're always discussing cold spells on here in winter - it's sometimes difficult to know when one discussion ends and another begins.

Tzardine

Really excited about the prospect of some snow. But hope it does not get too cold.

Anything below about -5 and our well freezes overnight, leaving us with no water.

nacho libre

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Fair enough, but it would be nice to get some decent temps for the rest of us to remember this easterly by. ICON, which handles temps fairly OK and which only goes out to 120hrs, has minima something akin to a flat tyre on Mon morn:



Perhaps once the colder air become entrenched in the days after, that something a bit more compelling regarding temps will be in the offing.

If the showers manage to make it as far as some midland locations, and there is decent accumulations arising from them, then i think temperatures in some rural spots will be lower than indicated

Rebelbrowser

Sorry if this has said before but doesn't the thread title need an upgrade? I think the potential bit is otiose now, and I think Friday 5th should read Sunday 7th? An ol' warning (Orange?) should probably be attached too....

Rebelbrowser

nacho libre wrote: »

If the showers manage to make it as far as some midland locations, and there is decent accumulations arising from them, then i think temperatures in some rural spots will be lower than indicated

Absolutely, once snowfields set up those temps become wildly inaccurate. A few days out from the December 2010 event I doubt the charts were showing the double digit negative figures ultimately reached. In an sort of decent easterly you'd expect to see -6c or lower at night in parts of Connacht.

KingJeremy

ongarboy wrote: »

In fairness, if 30% of the population of Ireland live in County Dublin as per last census, it's reasonable to expect that approximately up to one third of posts here may be Dublin-centric. Combine this with the high density in a small land area so that when snow does fall in Dublin, up to a million + people are potentially in the firing line. Snow falling in a same area size in a sparsely populated rural area will only have a fraction of impacted population...and correspondingly less posts about it. It's not abandonment, just per capita proportionality...which often seems like domination!

Well put :-)

ninebeanrows

Not a great EC for longer term cold. Eeeek

Brz555

I remember during the BFTE the streamers made it as far west as Galway city, we got plastered before Emma even hit. Was just constant conveyor from east to west on the radar.

Rebelbrowser

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

Not a great EC for longer term cold. Eeeek

Yeah, not liking this. Not sure we ever even get -8s here in south Munster.

Little snowy old me

bb1234567 wrote: »

Is this snow event legit now? Or is there still a chance of it falling through? Just gotta say, quite surprised by how sudden all this is!

It appeared to be legit up to this afternoon but I'm not liking the tone in the models thread. Some are beginning to say things are downgrading... fingers crossed that it's just a wobble in the models this evening.

ZX7R

Little snowy old me wrote: »

It appeared to be legit up to this afternoon but I'm not liking the tone in the models thread. Some are beginning to say things are downgrading... fingers crossed that it's just a wobble in the models this evening.

Downgrading for the longevity of the cold spell.
Your still going to get 3 or 4 days

Reckless Abandonment

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

Not a great EC for longer term cold. Eeeek

Damm I just finished counting my chickens...

On a serious note. Snow from Sunday to Wednesday I'd take your arm off for that.

D9Male

Yes, I said it earlier. But this evolution is very messy. I trust GFS in these setups. For sure there is a risk that we are not getting sufficient heights built to the north. There is very good potential still in the medium term, but we have to be realistic and note there is a real prospect of a short-lived snap. With southerly air possibly encroaching by Wednesday.

But the early part of next week should be fun.

Little snowy old me

ZX7R wrote: »

Downgrading for the longevity of the cold spell.
Your still going to get 3 or 4 days

Unfortunately there is a tendency for breakdowns in cold spells to arrive on time or get brought forward. We may be lucky to get a mere 3 days out of this. Also, I doubt I'll see snow in Donegal. But I will still enjoy the cold frosty weather. I wish everyone in the east good luck getting some snow.

pistolpetes11

Little snowy old me wrote: »

It appeared to be legit up to this afternoon but I'm not liking the tone in the models thread. Some are beginning to say things are downgrading... fingers crossed that it's just a wobble in the models this evening.

You need to understand the model thread , the tone flips and flops as per the run , some folks are looking for the long entrenched cold which is why the tone will be down when FI is showing a breakdown ,

Rite now we are looking good for a decent cold spell , who knows what will happen out in FI or if there is decent snow cover on the ground , might entrench the cold more .

Personally I tend not to react on run to run variances as it would drive you crazy

Captain Snow

https://www.thejournal.ie/weather-cold-snow-5344352-Feb2021/

Its in the News now

Nqp15hhu

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Fair enough, but it would be nice to get some decent temps for the rest of us to remember this easterly by. ICON, which handles temps fairly OK and which only goes out to 120hrs, has minima something akin to a flat tyre on Mon morn:



Perhaps once the colder air become entrenched in the days after, that something a bit more compelling regarding temps will be in the offing.

My forecast shows a lot of cloud. So perhaps that’s the cause of the poor minima.

Sleety_Rain

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

Not a great EC for longer term cold. Eeeek

Depends if those lows slide,they probably will