Cold Spell - Feb 7th to 13th 2021 - Chat

johnny45

SEPT 23 1989 wrote: »

The boffins in the technical discussion thread seem to have thrown in the towel

It’s over folks

yourdeadwright

So is it going to snow in Dublin this week ?

highdef

Exactly 3cm of snow on the car now in North Kildare. Moderate snizzle at the moment. 1°.

Roads are still frozen as the snow had been compacted into ice.







Not sure how to rotate the sideways pics

Tyrone212

Ecm and gfs snow fall accumulations
charts from the weekend turned out to be pretty accurate for the streamers. From experience they usually over cook snow fall totals from far out then downgrade closer to time so it never looked great in that regard. That's more true of frontal events but even so, whenever I have streamers coming down from the North, if the gfs and ecm are showing next to nothing accumulation wise, then I will usually have next to nothing.

It never looked more than dusting for those exposed to an Easterly. 3 to 5cm isolated maxes for this time on Tuesday was projected.

bazlers

yourdeadwright wrote: »

So is it going to snow in Dublin this week ?

As in snow falling or accumulating? If im asking that question its not a goo sign.I think you will still have a bit to pare on a two inch measuring stick

TheFairy

So are the models busting widespread snow across Ireland, or just the southern parts? In the North so still hopeful?

Kermit.de.frog

yourdeadwright wrote: »

So is it going to snow in Dublin this week ?

Yes. Thursday evening until sunrise Friday is best guidance. How much remains to be seen.

Some hail and snow showers before then.

kerrycork13

gozunda wrote: »

Snowing North Cork atm

Whereabouts if you don't mind me asking

Snowbie

A solitary cm on cars and roofs but nothing much really to report. Had a moderate grap shower with some snow mixed in. Sky starting to brighten up over the sea.

Temp 2.0C
Dp -1C

I've done a tutorial on how to forecast snow and the complexities that are involved for snow just to fall let alone settle. Its a lengthy but informative guide so if you have the time give it a watch (between our snow showers) go ahead and i hope to make things a little clearer about forecasting and the challenges just to predict snowfall

https://youtu.be/AuenIDIyTfI

highdef

highdef wrote: »

Exactly 3cm of snow on the car now in North Kildare. Moderate snizzle at the moment. 1°.

Roads are still frozen as the snow had been compacted into ice.







Not sure how to rotate the sideways pics

None of your photos are showing for me,did you take them as a boards attachment?
They're not coming through for me
Btw on boards photos,horizontal is vertical and vice versa so just put phone the opposite way

Tyrone212

Tyrone212 wrote: »

Ecm and gfs snow fall accumulations
charts from the weekend turned out to be pretty accurate for the streamers. From experience they usually over cook snow fall totals from far out then downgrade closer to time so it never looked great in that regard. That's more true of frontal events but even so, whenever I have streamers coming down from the North, if the gfs and ecm are showing next to nothing accumulation wise, then I will usually have next to nothing.

It never looked more than dusting for those exposed to an Easterly. 3 to 5cm isolated maxes for this time on Tuesday was projected.

Correct
Dryer air columns this time
However this source is far less marginal than any Atlantic muck when it meets Atlantic muck
Unlike northwesterlies or any of the polar maritime seen this season

Tyrone212

AuntySnow wrote: »

Correct
Dryer air columns this time
However this source is far less marginal than any Atlantic muck when it meets Atlantic muck
Unlike northwesterlies or any of the polar maritime seen this season

Yet this delivered less snow and cold temperatures than the Atlantic muck. Letterkenny, Ballybofey, Castlederg etc had snow lying from Friday the 23rd of January and melted Tuesday 27th. Minimums of -8 and -11 recorded on the island during that period. This has been largely a hail fest with a minimum of -2 in knock.

highdef

AuntySnow wrote: »

None of your photos are showing for me,did you take them as a boards attachment?
They're not coming through for me
Btw on boards photos,horizontal is vertical and vice versa so just put phone the opposite way

I rotated the wrong ones on my phone and re-uploaded. Have also left the attachments in place so they can be clicked on although photos still appear to incorrect even though I compensated at my end. Ah well

Kermit.de.frog

Just on people's expectations because I think this has to be said.

There is a problem magnified here and it is that some posters just do not read or take in what is being said.

No one, but no one, made any claims this was going to be some biblical event yet I see this trotted out every few posts as if some here are responsible for sending people's hopes through the stratosphere.

That is not true.

And it's not only on boards, it's all over the place.

The media does bare some responsibility, however I have not seen any headlines or articles in Irish media that have been that unreasonable if i'm honest. It's been very restrained.

UK media on the other hand can be absolutely absurd and I guess that is absorbed here too to some extent.

This is not a tabloid website where you are only expected to have the intellect to read the headline and nothing else.

There is no excuse for not reading and then giving out that fantasy expectations have not been met.

It's really annoying and unfair for those of us that just do this as a hobby really.

It ruins threads and otherwise interesting and insightful conversation and then you have the trolls on top of that. This is meant to be informative and enjoyable.

Can we not just discuss the prospects ahead (which incidentally despite the atmosphere in here this morning) remains reasonably positive if you want snow before the week is out?

United road

Gonzo wrote: »

Just looked at this mornings models and they are very different from the past few days, it's basically game over for a weekend of widespread and heavy snow. We may get some marginal wet snow on Thursday into Friday but the weekend is back to fairly mild. Not sure the models can flip back at this stage to what they were showing yesterday.

Only last night we had Michelle on National TV bigging this up!
Thursday nailed and weekend uncertainty but looking cold! GL considering 24 hours of snow, MT referred to 82.
So if models flipped so dramatically like they did from that extreme last night. why are you so certain they wont flip back at this stage and show better this evening?

Villain

I posted some charts in the technical thread from the 6z ECM update which is behind paywall, its not good news for snow lovers in Leinster for Thursday at least!

https://twitter.com/CarlowWeather/status/1359117573183467521?s=20

Gonzo

The models are fairly shocking this morning. The GFS backtracks on the many cold and bitter members that it was showing from Friday into next week and brings about a fairly swift end to this cold spell on Friday and into Saturday. By Sunday we appear into a slightly milder than average pattern with only a few cold outliers left at this stage.
Yesterdays GFS12z looked like continuing the cold spell into the middle of next week and showed plenty of potential for this to be extended even further.

This mornings GFS is rather sobering. The chances of a model flip back to what we had yesterday look very unlikely but if it's going to happen we need to see this today to gain any sort of confidence back.



The GFS shows a widespread snow event on Friday but this melts very quickly and is gone from most places by Saturday.



Unfortunately the bad news isn't just limited to the GFS. The ECM has also performed a total flip on yesterday's very chilly ECM runs. This mornings ECM brings milder than average temperatures back across Ireland by Saturday morning and this even spreads throughout the UK on Sunday ending the cold spell there.



GEM is not as bad as the GFS/ECM, it does bring the milder air in but slower, Leinster stays chilly till about Sunday and then a swift warming into Monday.

It shows a low covering of snow by the weekend which melts during Sunday.



All we can hope for at this stage is an improvement in the models that prolong the cold till Monday but the fact that all models flipped overnight to a swift transition to mild on Friday/Saturday does not give me confidence of a model reversal back to what we had yesterday.

Little snowy old me

Calibos wrote: »

I crashed and burned a few days ago with GL's expertise indicating a cap on intensity of the streamers combined with the forecast wind directions Sun Night-Wednesday, meaning it was likely there would not be much if any accumulations in the East and especially not in the Southern half of the East Coast. This has come to pass as we all know.

So ironically despite todays output, and given I'd already de-hyped myself and reconciled myself to this event mostly being a bust, I can now mentally look on the bright-side. Depending on the timing of the Thursday event, if we even get 10cm and we can get one day out of it going for a walk, taking some nice photo's, building snowmen or having a few snowball fights etc well we aren't going to get bored of it, spend the rest of the week struggling to get around without slipping and breaking our necks or sliding the car etc ie. We'll have our one day of fun and then it will be washed away quickly with minimum disruption to the country.

That said, the final kick in the balls could be that most of the snow falls in the hours of Darkness on Thursday night when not many can enjoy it and if you can't get out in it before noon on Friday it's too late.

So my question is, is this event winding up that right boot for one more kick in the balls??

We are all in for a kick in the balls. Anyone who keeps pushing 10cm at this stage is either being naive or trying to save face. It was a wild rollercoaster ride but something tells me that those who are usually very good with their forecasts and analyses, let hope and emotions cloud their judgements. Understandable, as we love the snow.

Its coming to mid February so with the Atlantic now re establishing, that will probably bring us to March and by which time, I usually put notions of snow aside and start focusing on looking for the first bursts of spring warmth in April.

A good Atlantic storm would be a consolation this month but that'll probably elude us also. I hate this time of year and detest March. A horrible month. Neither winter nor spring.

Mafra

Snowing west of Mt Leinster for the last hour or two. Micro flakes but lots of it.. Had a little too overnight which stayed but melting slightly as day progresses on hard surfaces.
A pathetic enough effort.

Tyrone212

Tyrone212 wrote: »

Yet this delivered less snow and cold temperatures than the Atlantic muck. Letterkenny, Ballybofey, Castlederg etc had snow lying from Friday the 23rd of January and melted Tuesday 27th. Minimums of -8 and -11 recorded on the island during that period. This has been largely a hail fest with a minimum of -2 in knock.

Less of that tone now
Night time faux Cold is no good without a decent fall of snow and I'm not talking a wet cm or 2 to be fair

igCorcaigh

Regardless of expectations, there is always something to learn about how events unfold.

Weather is never promised, and it is an amazing combination of science and experience to forecast or predict (for want of better words) how the trajectory of a complex system like weather plays out.

Thank you to all volunteer contributors here for improving the value of a public forum like boards.ie

compsys

United road wrote: »

Only last night we had Michelle on National TV bigging this up!
Thursday nailed and weekend uncertainty but looking cold! GL considering 24 hours of snow, MT referred to 82.
So if models flipped so dramatically like they did from that extreme last night. why are you so certain they wont flip back at this stage and show better this evening?

I honestly think I was listening to a different interview than everyone else.

There was lots of uncertainty in the forecast she gave in my opinion.

It doesn't help that a lot of the forecasters in Met E aren't great communicators.

It's been said before but I think sometimes they need to roll out a professional TV presenter with good communication skills (and a decent background in weather) as opposed to relying solely on fully trained meteorologists all the time with zero media skills or training.

For me I want the weather forecast to be clear and accurate and drawn up by experts. However I couldn't care less about the qualifications of the person giving it on TV.

The chan chan man

Well that’s that then I guess. Its beautiful here now and the dusting has completely melted. Might get for a run now afterall!

A few flakes falling now in Loughrea, East Galway.

Doubt it will stick, we didn't even have a frost this morning.

sryanbruen

At least the sun is shining right now here in Dublin 13 although might be brief, have seen very little of that in past 2 weeks. Good to see ya old friend anyway.

D9Male

I was very interested in the prospect of snow from the streamers early this week. -10 uppers and an easterly / ENE airflow augured well for the greater Dublin area.

But Gaoth Láidir was good enough to give his view that these streamers would be weak in nature. And so it transpired. I mean the models did undercook streamer potential 10 years ago. But they generally get things right. And there was so much hopecasting going on here.

I was also very interested in the prospects of a few frontal snow events this week. However, it looks like 1 maximum. I am also surprised how few posters that know more than I do about weather forecasting are discussing what looks like increasing prospects of a mainly sleety outcome closer to the coasts.

Looking at the 00z models, and the 06z GFS, I think 5cm accumulations are overly optimistic for those within 10km of the coast, which is a significant proportion of the Irish population.

compsys

compsys wrote: »

It's been said before but I think sometimes they need to roll out a professional TV presenter with good communication skills (and a decent background in weather) as opposed to relying solely on fully trained meteorologists all the time with zero media skills or training.

They have Joanne for that. Unfortunately she's at home with a broken toe.

Tyrone212

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Just on people's expectations because I think this has to be said.

There is a problem magnified here and it is that some posters just do not read or take in what is being said.

No one, but no one, made any claims this was going to be some biblical event yet I see this trotted out every few posts as if some here are responsible for sending people's hopes through the stratosphere.

That is not true.

And it's not only on boards, it's all over the place.

To be fair Kermit some were expecting it to be a Biblical event at the weekend at least.

On Saturday I said people should temper their expectations after MTs forecast was mentioned, in it he said up to 30cm of snow in places come Tuesday was possible.

I said there was zero support for this in the models and I got ripped to shreds. A couple of inches in isolated areas with a dusting for most exposed to the East was what the models were showing then. About 8 different people quoted me to complain and lots of pms giving out as well.

I was being a troll, how dare I question it, what do I know, I know where the door is, a weird sweetheart reference, the mods should silence me, the list is endless.

There was no reasoning with these people. I wasn't saying I was right, just that the models had zero support for anything close to that. They were only showing small accumulations. So a lot were expecting biblical amounts.

Tyrone212

AuntySnow wrote: »

Less of that tone now
Night time faux Cold is no good without a decent fall of snow and I'm not talking a wet cm or 2 to be fair

Haha. Better than 1 or 2cm, had between 6 and 7cm throughout. Nothing biblical but retained its depth until Tuesday. Beggars can't be choosers ha.

highdef

Convection building up a fair bit in the east Irish Sea, to the north of Wales. Some showers moving out of NW England, which have managed to make it right across the land from the east, appear to have a ENE to WSW'ish look to them. Maybe something more substantial later this afternoon?

There's also an expanding and intensifying are of snow moving west which is currently in north Wales and extending out to sea a little. Not sure if this a bit of a developing feature as it's developing over land as well.