Cold Spell - Feb 7th to 13th 2021 - Chat

Gonzo

compsys wrote: »

There was lots of uncertainty in the forecast she gave in my opinion.

That is the thing about Thursday into the weekend. There was uncertainty especially as it is the Atlantic trying to get back in. Nobody guaranteed that this weekend would be bitterly cold and snowy, all we had to go on was the models we were looking at yesterday which looked very promising but as always in this battleground situations things can change very quickly and we are still 2 days away from right now.

Right now there is still uncertainty about the current models in terms of how much snow will we get, will it survive the trip into Dublin/Leinster and how quickly the mild will take over. There is even a chance of upgrades again but at this stage we'd need to start seeing these in this afternoons models.

If this morning's models verify many will be happy to see a few hours of possibly decent snowfall on Thursday and maybe into Friday. It is better than nothing at all and will certainly be better than this rather tame easterly.

The one thing that has annoyed me throughout this spell of weather is the media/rag papers and some weather channels constantly referring to this cold spell as a beast from the east when it is nothing even close to one. It's a bit concerning to think that every cold spell we get during winters will be called 'beast from the east' once winds switch into the east even if the uppers, temperatures and instability are not what they should be. People click onto these websites or videos as soon as they see 'beast from the east' and assume we are in for a week of sub zero temperatures and daily bouts of heavy snow.

Kermit.de.frog

Villain wrote: »

I posted some charts in the technical thread from the 6z ECM update which is behind paywall, its not good news for snow lovers in Leinster for Thursday at least!

https://twitter.com/CarlowWeather/status/1359117573183467521?s=20

That looks more a small delay to me tbh. I'd wait for this afternoon's models and maybe then we can form a better opinion.

It's not an easy setup that's for sure.

brianthomas

highdef wrote: »

Convection building up a fair bit in the east Irish Sea, to the north of Wales. Some showers moving out of NW England, which have managed to make it right across the land from the east, appear to have a ENE to WSW'ish look to them. Maybe something more substantial later this afternoon?

There's also an expanding and intensifying are of snow moving west which is currently in north Wales and extending out to sea a little. Not sure if this a bit of a developing feature as it's developing over land as well.

GL called that out this morning so hopefully :-)

Kermit.de.frog

highdef wrote: »

Convection building up a fair bit in the east Irish Sea, to the north of Wales. Some showers moving out of NW England, which have managed to make it right across the land from the east, appear to have a ENE to WSW'ish look to them. Maybe something more substantial later this afternoon?

There's also an expanding and intensifying are of snow moving west which is currently in north Wales and extending out to sea a little. Not sure if this a bit of a developing feature as it's developing over land as well.

Once upper level winds go back ENE we have a good shout here in Dublin this evening and overnight for some half decent snowfall which is why i'm surprised Dublin was removed from the warning list.

Humberto Salazar

A nice bit of warm February sun would be nice now if we're not getting any more wintry weather.

redsteveireland

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Just on people's expectations because I think this has to be said.

There is a problem magnified here and it is that some posters just do not read or take in what is being said.

No one, but no one, made any claims this was going to be some biblical event yet I see this trotted out every few posts as if some here are responsible for sending people's hopes through the stratosphere.

That is not true.

And it's not only on boards, it's all over the place.

The media does bare some responsibility, however I have not seen any headlines or articles in Irish media that have been that unreasonable if i'm honest. It's been very restrained.

UK media on the other hand can be absolutely absurd and I guess that is absorbed here too to some extent.

This is not a tabloid website where you are only expected to have the intellect to read the headline and nothing else.

There is no excuse for not reading and then giving out that fantasy expectations have not been met.

It's really annoying and unfair for those of us that just do this as a hobby really.

It ruins threads and otherwise interesting and insightful conversation and then you have the trolls on top of that. This is meant to be informative and enjoyable.

Can we not just discuss the prospects ahead (which incidentally despite the atmosphere in here this morning) remains reasonably positive if you want snow before the week is out?

Its like every forecast, people do not read every word and take what they want or wish for from it. A nation of speed readers.

froog

Tyrone212 wrote: »

To be fair Kermit some were expecting it to be a Biblical event at the weekend at least.

On Saturday I said people should temper their expectations after MTs forecast was mentioned, in it he said up to 30cm of snow in places come Tuesday was possible.

I said there was zero support for this in the models and I got ripped to shreds. A couple of inches in isolated areas with a dusting for most exposed to the East was what the models were showing then. About 8 different people quoted me to complain and lots of pms giving out as well.

I was being a troll, how dare I question it, what do I know, I know where the door is, a weird sweetheart reference, the mods should silence me, the list is endless.

There was no reasoning with these people. I wasn't saying I was right, just that the models had zero support for anything close to that. They were only showing small accumulations. So a lot were expecting biblical amounts.

i don't recall anyone saying this was going to be a biblical event to be honest. you and others seem to be inventing things to be annoyed about.

secondly, it's a weather forum, people discuss weather forecasts, and weather is pretty hard to predict. getting upset about slightly less snow than what was predicted is hard to understand out of an adult.

and finally, the main event is thursday afternoon, it was always thursday afternoon, and it hasn't happened yet. and several locations have already seen a good dusting of snow.

pad199207

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

That looks more a small delay to me tbh. I'd wait for this afternoon's models and maybe then we can form a better opinion.

It's not an easy setup that's for sure.

Yeah waiting for the 12z to see if the toys can fly. Hoping for big upgrades, they need to be big.

Another mass? Have ya got the Vatican on speed dial?

ffarrell7

brianthomas wrote: »

GL called that out this morning so hopefully :-)

I am in Dublin 15 and although we have had constant graupel and snow showers since yesterday, they are just not heavy enough. There is still a nice covering in places but usually when we get an east wind we get a good dumping....

60 cm in 2018 but usually about 10 cm.

We have only had about 2cm so far in total.....

Maybe this evening when the temperatures drop....

Tyrone212

froog wrote: »

i don't recall anyone saying this was going to be a biblical event to be honest. you and others seem to be inventing things to ne annoyed about.

secondly, it's a weather forum, people discuss weather forecasts, and weather is pretty hard to predict. getting upset about slightly less snow that what was predicted is hard to understand out of an adult.

and finally, the main event is thursday afternoon, it was always thursday afternoon, and it hasn't happened yet. and several locations have already seen a good dusting of snow.

30cm is biblical. I didn't get upset. People got upset when I said that wasn't going to happen.

Tyrone212

Tyrone212 wrote: »

Haha. Better than 1 or 2cm, had between 6 and 7cm throughout. Nothing biblical but retained its depth until Tuesday. Beggars can't be choosers ha.

To be fair though,in the last 40 years, the number of times an easterly turned an Atlantic front widely at sea level and on coasts to snow (as opposed to favoured inland or hilly) would outnumber Atlantic fronts doing it on their own by a factor of 10 to one

Regarding the models and unrealistic expectations, I accept that
Thats why a model run more than a few days from an event should always be spoken about as in theory which is what I do
The snow dynamics are there, its just so is the cap
Put the same cap on Atlantic sourced cold and you'd have cap and rain or sleet to deal with in your light showers near coasts
Looking forward to Thursday into Fridays excitement now (if it happens)

Tyrone212

AuntySnow wrote: »

To be fair though,in the last 40 years, the number of times an easterly turned an Atlantic front widely at sea level and on coasts to snow (as opposed to favoured inland or hilly) would outnumber Atlantic fronts doing it on their own by a factor of 10 to one

Regarding the models and unrealistic expectations, I accept that
Thats why a model run more than a few days from an event shold always be spoken about as in theory which is what I do
The snow dynamics are there, its just so is the cap
Put the same cap on Atlantic sourced cold and you'd have cap and rain or sleet to deal with in your light showers near coasts
Looking forward to Thursday into Fridays excitement now (if it happens)

It was snow showers I had not a frontal system.

I would have no clue about the stats regarding the last 40 years of either of those events happening so I couldn't comment or even attempt to guess.

JCX BXC

redsteveireland wrote: »

Its like every forecast, people do not read every word and take what they want or wish for from it. A nation of speed readers.

That is for sure it, people read what they want, eg some seem to only read the most optimistic posts and others only read the most negative, take this information and then harp it out later as gospel.

You need to take everything on board. Some posters read one word downgrade and then utter toys out of the pram and state things like "Massive downgrade?!??!?!?" Other posters read one post suggesting the possibility of large accumulations of snow, take that post only as gospel, and then freak when that doesn't occur.

A nation of speed readers, or a nation of selective readers!

Some extremely light radar returns making it to West Clare, some specs of dandruff occasionally falling.

froog

Tyrone212 wrote: »

30cm is biblical. I didn't get upset. People got upset when I said that wasn't going to happen.

again, thursday hasn't even happened. it is pretty difficult to predict snow depth accurately. it could well be 30cm in some areas yet.

An Ri rua

[Deleted User] wrote: »

A few flakes falling now in Loughrea, East Galway.

Doubt it will stick, we didn't even have a frost this morning.

But you'd rarely have a frost with wind?

We had frozen water dishes here near Tullamore. Not frozen solid, like the -7 hard frost a few weeks ago, but 1cm overnight nonetheless. Biting East wind, clearly. Elevated ground. Constant snow grains and small flakes.

JP85

https://twitter.com/i/status/1359098869108387840

This is how I feel

Gaoth Laidir

Gonzo wrote: »

That is the thing about Thursday into the weekend. There was uncertainty especially as it is the Atlantic trying to get back in. Nobody guaranteed that this weekend would be bitterly cold and snowy, all we had to go on was the models we were looking at yesterday which looked very promising but as always in this battleground situations things can change very quickly and we are still 2 days away from right now.

Right now there is still uncertainty about the current models in terms of how much snow will we get, will it survive the trip into Dublin/Leinster and how quickly the mild will take over. There is even a chance of upgrades again but at this stage we'd need to start seeing these in this afternoons models.

If this morning's models verify many will be happy to see a few hours of possibly decent snowfall on Thursday and maybe into Friday. It is better than nothing at all and will certainly be better than this rather tame easterly.

The one thing that has annoyed me throughout this spell of weather is the media/rag papers and some weather channels constantly referring to this cold spell as a beast from the east when it is nothing even close to one. It's a bit concerning to think that every cold spell we get during winters will be called 'beast from the east' once winds switch into the east even if the uppers, temperatures and instability are not what they should be. People click onto these websites or videos as soon as they see 'beast from the east' and assume we are in for a week of sub zero temperatures and daily bouts of heavy snow.

To be fair, though, the media are not the only ones promoting this BFTE term. A few Tweeters not a million miles away are at it too to gain clicks and follows.

Tyrone212

froog wrote: »

again, thursday hasn't even happened. it is pretty difficult to predict snow depth accurately. it could well be 30cm in some areas yet.

Read over my initial comment. 30cm was mentioned for Tuesday. Not later in the week.

lucernarian

froog wrote: »

i don't recall anyone saying this was going to be a biblical event to be honest. you and others seem to be inventing things to be annoyed about.

secondly, it's a weather forum, people discuss weather forecasts, and weather is pretty hard to predict. getting upset about slightly less snow than what was predicted is hard to understand out of an adult.

and finally, the main event is thursday afternoon, it was always thursday afternoon, and it hasn't happened yet. and several locations have already seen a good dusting of snow.

Tyrone did get ripped to shreds for saying there wasn't model support for the streamers and there was backseat modding and one accusation of being a re-reg of a very negative poster IIRC. That's just a fact.

Tyrone212

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

To be fair, though, the media are not the only ones promoting this BFTE term. A few Tweeters not a million miles away are at it too to gain clicks and follows.

Yes. Too many like fishers. Hail from the East more accurate on this occasion.

Tyrone212

Tyrone212 wrote: »

It was snow showers I had not a frontal system.

I would have no clue about the stats regarding the last 40 years of either of those events happening so I couldn't comment or even attempt to guess.

Unfortunately, I do have a clue about the last 40 winters in the east because I've lived through every one of them and more
You are well in land,a long way from the coast so polar maritime does deliver there
Omagh would be prime
You'll get those episodes most winters in a minority of areas
I'm talking of the experiences for the whole county and Leinster/Munster

TonyMaloney

Tyrone212 wrote: »

Yes. Too many like fishers. Hail from the East more accurate on this occasion.

shiite from the right?

I think the easterly has clearly been a disappointment to date, but there's still scope for some decent showers from it.
As for Thursday to Saturday, it may not turn out to be a classic, but I think there'll be plenty of us that do pretty well.

I'd bite your hand off if you could guarantee me the Icon would pan out. Again, not a classic, but many of us would have a snowy old time.

froog

lucernarian wrote: »

Tyrone did get ripped to shreds for saying there wasn't model support for the streamers and there was backseat modding and one accusation of being a re-reg of a very negative poster IIRC. That's just a fact.

there's several very negative posters that only seem to pop up after an event has passed to troll. so i can understand people being suspicious of a newly registered account made just in time for a potential event to be honest.

BrandonBay86

I’m not too far from you Gonzo and this snow won’t be going anywhere today.

People forget the nature of streamers.

Gonzo

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

To be fair, though, the media are not the only ones promoting this BFTE term. A few Tweeters not a million miles away are at it too to gain clicks and follows.

Oh am well aware of that, not just tweeters but Youtube channels as well. It concerns me that every winter from now on an easterly with decent looking uppers will be labeled 'beast from the east' regardless of widespread snow potential and overall temperatures. It's great for getting more people to click/share/like the link. 'Beast From The East' is more of a marketing term at this stage. Then we wonder why some non regulars suddenly appear on the forum getting angry when there isn't a foot of snow sitting outside their front door.

Gonzo

BrandonBay86 wrote: »

I’m not too far from you Gonzo and this snow won’t be going anywhere today.

People forget the nature of streamers.

Is there much left where you are? Fields are all green here again, roads/paths clear. Still some snow on the grass in the garden but it is melting slowly but surely. Haven't seen a flake of snow all morning.

Slashermcguirk

Update a few minutes ago from met Éireann

NATIONAL OUTLOOK

Overview: Remaining cold and unsettled with more widespread falls of sleet and snow. Becoming windy over the weekend with spells of rain, possibly falling as snow in the eastern half of the country.

Wednesday night: Largely dry, cold night with isolated wintry showers and clear spells. However rain, sleet and snow will move into the southwest overnight as southeasterly breezes freshen. Winds will become strong and gusty across the southwest. Lowest temperatures of -4 to +1 degrees with frost and ice forming, coldest in Ulster.

Thursday: Sleet and snow will slowly extend northwards from the southwest across much of Munster, Connacht and Leinster, with snow accumulations leading to hazardous conditions. Highest temperatures of 1 to 3 degrees. Feeling colder in fresh and gusty southeast winds, strongest in western and southwestern counties.

Thursday night: Remaining breezy overnight with sleet and snow continuing to fall over much of the east, midlands and north leading to further accumulations. However, precipitation will turn to rain in parts of the south and west. Lowest temperatures of -1 to +2 degrees with fresh southeasterly winds.

Friday: Some lingering falls of sleet and snow in the eastern half of the country, with outbreaks of rain elsewhere. More persistent rain will move into western counties during the evening. Southeast breezes will strengthen during the day, becoming strong and gusty in coastal counties. Highest temperatures generally of 1 to 4 degrees, however less cold in southwestern counties with highs of 5 to 8 degrees.

Friday night: A wet, windy night with rain turning to snow over the north, east and midlands, leading to some accumulations. Cold night for many, with lowest temperatures of -1 to +2 degrees however much of Munster and southern Connacht will be less cold with lows of 4 to 7 degrees. Fresh to strong and gusty southeast winds.

Saturday: Windy with outbreaks of rain, possibly continuing to fall as sleet and snow in Ulster and north Leinster for a time. Southeast winds will be fresh to strong and gusty. Remaining cold across the north, east and midlands with highest afternoon temperatures of 1 to 5 degrees, a few degrees milder elsewhere. Windy overnight with further falls of rain, heavy in places, possibly turning wintry in parts of the north and east. Lowest temperatures of 0 to 4 degrees, with milder conditions persisting in the southwest.

Current indications suggest Sunday will remain unsettled with breezy conditions and further rainfall. Some uncertainty regarding temperatures, with a possibility of colder and wintry conditions persisting in eastern areas.

ZeroSum76

Just had a small 2 minute shower of graupel here in Ashford, Co Wicklow. There hasn't been much that fell overnight here. Some small 'corner' accumulations on rooftops but nothing on the ground. It all melted away pretty quickly. Really hoping for the kids sake we get something here tomorrow or Friday morning. Even a couple of cm would be enough to keep us happy. Streamers seemed to miss this area almost entirely yesterday. Personally now I am over the disappointment of the downgrades. Need to stop following the twists, turns, total excitement to abject misery with each twist - as a rugby and Liverpool supporter I get quite enough of that already.

Tyrone212

AuntySnow wrote: »

Unfortunately, I do have a clue about the last 40 winters in the east because I've lived through every one of them and more
You are well in land,a long way from the coast so polar maritime does deliver there
Omagh would be prime
You'll get those episodes most winters in a minority of areas
I'm talking of the experiences for the whole county and Leinster/Munster

Ah right. I get what you're saying now.

Gonzo

that Met Eireann forecast sounds alot more promising than the charts we are currently looking at....