Cold Spell - Feb 7th to 13th 2021 - Chat

Alun

Blue skies and sunshine pretty much all day so far in my part of Bray. Looking north it's looking pretty cloudy though.

Juppie

Gonzo wrote: »

Is there much left where you are? Fields are all green here again, roads/paths clear. Still some snow on the grass in the garden but it is melting slowly but surely. Haven't seen a flake of snow all morning.

I'm in Trim and it's all pretty much melted. Has been some flakes on and off all morning.

Thelonious Monk

Has it ever actually snowed in the Bible?

ZeroSum76

Gonzo wrote: »

that Met Eireann forecast sounds alot more promising than the charts we are currently looking at....

Probably only if you're North of North Dublin though and in the East? I guess they have to cover all bases don't they and indicate even if there is a chance for wintry snowy conditions.

gerrybhoy

Thelonious Monk wrote: »

Has it ever actually snowed in the Bible?

You're a man of the cloth you should know

Chalkitdown147

Gonzo wrote: »

that Met Eireann forecast sounds alot more promising than the charts we are currently looking at....

Prediciting -5 in the midlands tonight, first time i've seen this low of a temp forecast. You reckon they've got more info re this low pressure system??

Tyrone212

Thelonious Monk wrote: »

Has it ever actually snowed in the Bible?

No. Too many Psalm trees.

bazlers

froog wrote: »

i don't recall anyone saying this was going to be a biblical event to be honest. you and others seem to be inventing things to be annoyed about.

secondly, it's a weather forum, people discuss weather forecasts, and weather is pretty hard to predict. getting upset about slightly less snow than what was predicted is hard to understand out of an adult.

and finally, the main event is thursday afternoon, it was always thursday afternoon, and it hasn't happened yet. and several locations have already seen a good dusting of snow.

Thursday event wasnt on the cards when this started. The thursday event was to save our disappointment.
Ive seen heavier frosts give better dustings.
Im not blaming anyone but they are the facts to date.

Kimbot

Thelonious Monk wrote: »

Has it ever actually snowed in the Bible?

https://thefederalist.com/2014/02/13/the-six-best-bible-verses-about-snow/

DOCARCH

TonyMaloney wrote: »

shiite from the right?

When this is over, I will rename this thread (for the record) Feb 7th to 12th - '****e from the Right'.

redsteveireland

An Ri rua wrote: »

But you'd rarely have a frost with wind?

We had frozen water dishes here near Tullamore. Not frozen solid, like the -7 hard frost a few weeks ago, but 1cm overnight nonetheless. Biting East wind, clearly. Elevated ground. Constant snow grains and small flakes.

We had frost on the cars in Athenry, albeit a strange patchy frost. Reports that there was ice on the road that contributed to a crash in Lackagh also.

ZeroSum76

Question from the uninitiated. Why is it graupelling right now and not snowing? Is it because the precipitation is too light?

BrandonBay86

Gonzo wrote: »

Is there much left where you are? Fields are all green here again, roads/paths clear. Still some snow on the grass in the garden but it is melting slowly but surely. Haven't seen a flake of snow all morning.

Yes anywhere not getting sun it hasn’t melted.

Fields are a broken white as the grass is long .

Thelonious Monk

Kimbot wrote: »

https://thefederalist.com/2014/02/13/the-six-best-bible-verses-about-snow/

Correct. I was just testing all you heathens.

TonyMaloney

highdef wrote: »

Convection building up a fair bit in the east Irish Sea, to the north of Wales. Some showers moving out of NW England, which have managed to make it right across the land from the east, appear to have a ENE to WSW'ish look to them. Maybe something more substantial later this afternoon?

There's also an expanding and intensifying are of snow moving west which is currently in north Wales and extending out to sea a little. Not sure if this a bit of a developing feature as it's developing over land as well.

Looking more and more promising with each frame.

where's it going though?

Snowbie

Sun came out and temp lifted to 3C then out with the dogs and got bombarded by a moderate grap shower again coated everything white.
Temp dropped to 1.4C but rising again.

Air is nice crisp and I can see convection out over the sea, its a disorganised mess though.

Little snowy old me

Interesting. Donegal Weather Channel saying it could be locally -6 or -7 in parts of the NW tonight. I'll take that!

ZeroSum76

ZeroSum76 wrote: »

Just had a small 2 minute shower of graupel here in Ashford, Co Wicklow. There hasn't been much that fell overnight here. Some small 'corner' accumulations on rooftops but nothing on the ground. It all melted away pretty quickly. Really hoping for the kids sake we get something here tomorrow or Friday morning. Even a couple of cm would be enough to keep us happy. Streamers seemed to miss this area almost entirely yesterday. Personally now I am over the disappointment of the downgrades. Need to stop following the twists, turns, total excitement to abject misery with each twist - as a rugby and Liverpool supporter I get quite enough of that already.

I'm down the road just south of Arklow, we've had snow grains and flurries all morning and now blowing about like sugar
Its just the very edge of the light south Irish sea convection
You and Arklow just about are on the shortest sea track to Wales,the lleyn peninsula south of Anglesea which is why you/ we are so dry
The flakes are common this far south of you even though its only 15 miles, they're quite pretty
Temp today on my weather station is 1c colder than yesterday

piplip87

Still hope for more lying snow for most here. Instead of having a moan get out and enjoy it. Just was out around the Shores of Lough Ramor with the dogs. Plenty of snow lying on the fields but a slushy mess elsewhere. Here's hoping for a top up tonight and more lying snow even only for a few hours.

Gonzo

the showers over the north Wales coastline look like they may develop into a decent streamer, here's hoping they beef up further as they cross the Irish sea and deliver more than random pinhead sized pellets.

ffarrell7

piplip87 wrote: »

Still hope for more lying snow for most here. Instead of having a moan get out and enjoy it. Just was out around the Shores of Lough Ramor with the dogs. Plenty of snow lying on the fields but a slushy mess elsewhere. Here's hoping for a top up tonight and more lying snow even only for a few hours.[/quot



Given all the snow and graupel showers we have had since yesterday in Dublin 15, there should be about 3 or 4 cm lying but it is 2 degrees or thereabouts now so there has been some melt.... Not a lot around now......

Maybe this evening if the Irish Sea becomes more active because the temperatures will drop considerably....

Most apps are predicting snow for west Dublin for Wednesday and Thursday....... Anything from 5 to 8 cm..... We will see....

lucernarian

froog wrote: »

there's several very negative posters that only seem to pop up after an event has passed to troll. so i can understand people being suspicious of a newly registered account made just in time for a potential event to be honest.

Event hadn't even happened at that stage. There's one or two posters whose contribution is nothing except criticise others on some trumped up "allegations" of misrepresenting model output, typically only if it's a pessimistic appraisal of something. It's kinda toxic but let's enjoy what the weather brings either way. Not worth getting upset over some text on a website

Mr Bumble

Slashermcguirk wrote: »

Update a few minutes ago from met Éireann

NATIONAL OUTLOOK

Overview: Remaining cold and unsettled with more widespread falls of sleet and snow. Becoming windy over the weekend with spells of rain, possibly falling as snow in the eastern half of the country.

Wednesday night: Largely dry, cold night with isolated wintry showers and clear spells. However rain, sleet and snow will move into the southwest overnight as southeasterly breezes freshen. Winds will become strong and gusty across the southwest. Lowest temperatures of -4 to +1 degrees with frost and ice forming, coldest in Ulster.

Thursday: Sleet and snow will slowly extend northwards from the southwest across much of Munster, Connacht and Leinster, with snow accumulations leading to hazardous conditions. Highest temperatures of 1 to 3 degrees. Feeling colder in fresh and gusty southeast winds, strongest in western and southwestern counties.

Thursday night: Remaining breezy overnight with sleet and snow continuing to fall over much of the east, midlands and north leading to further accumulations. However, precipitation will turn to rain in parts of the south and west. Lowest temperatures of -1 to +2 degrees with fresh southeasterly winds.

Friday: Some lingering falls of sleet and snow in the eastern half of the country, with outbreaks of rain elsewhere. More persistent rain will move into western counties during the evening. Southeast breezes will strengthen during the day, becoming strong and gusty in coastal counties. Highest temperatures generally of 1 to 4 degrees, however less cold in southwestern counties with highs of 5 to 8 degrees.

Friday night: A wet, windy night with rain turning to snow over the north, east and midlands, leading to some accumulations. Cold night for many, with lowest temperatures of -1 to +2 degrees however much of Munster and southern Connacht will be less cold with lows of 4 to 7 degrees. Fresh to strong and gusty southeast winds.

Saturday: Windy with outbreaks of rain, possibly continuing to fall as sleet and snow in Ulster and north Leinster for a time. Southeast winds will be fresh to strong and gusty. Remaining cold across the north, east and midlands with highest afternoon temperatures of 1 to 5 degrees, a few degrees milder elsewhere. Windy overnight with further falls of rain, heavy in places, possibly turning wintry in parts of the north and east. Lowest temperatures of 0 to 4 degrees, with milder conditions persisting in the southwest.

Current indications suggest Sunday will remain unsettled with breezy conditions and further rainfall. Some uncertainty regarding temperatures, with a possibility of colder and wintry conditions persisting in eastern areas.

Looking forward to at least 4 days of snow potential on the east coast. This latest ME forecast still holds out the possibility of cold air hanging on in the East and snow falling right the way through to Sunday


Has everyone gone a bit mad in here?


I blame covid hormonal imbalance.


Steady as she goes.

ZeroSum76

AuntySnow wrote: »

I'm down the road just south of Arklow, we've had snow grains and flurries all morning and now blowing about like sugar
Its just the very edge of the light south Irish sea convection
You and Arklow just about are on the shortest sea track to Wales,the lleyn peninsula south of Anglesea which is why you/ we are so dry
The flakes are common this far south of you even though its only 15 miles, they're quite pretty
Temp today on my weather station is 1c colder than yesterday

That proximity sometimes enables us to see Mt. Snowdon on a rare clear day across the foam. Swings and roundabouts I guess - makes 2010 and other previous epic snowfalls seem all the more staggering. Growing up in Wicklow town we had less than a half a dozen decent snowfalls (or so it seems) in the past 40 years.

John.Icy

I think the models were fairly spot on in terms of accumulations expected tbf.

But I wouldn't say they grasped the extent of the streamers that well either. Looks like ICON did a great job. Very light but had the most extensive precip. as I can see. Even last night when the streamers were active some of the hi-res models still were totally blank on the precip charts. Ultimately it doesn't really matter as convection was too shallow, ground temps were too warm, and intensity was too varied and mostly light. We have had hours of cumulative graupel and snow grains falling here since yesterday but only a brief dusting this morning. Any drop in intensity and you had melt. Really did need a few frosts coming into Sunday. Or else needed to be further inland where some actual full coverings were seen and actual snow flakes fell.

Re: the hype. I do see both sides. If you have been around here a fair time you know the posters who know there stuff and who to listen to. Doing that, you probably wouldn't have expected much bar maybe briefly when MT posted his own promising update that was fairly out there all things considering and no poster should have got ridiculed for saying as such. MT did pull back on it by the next day so not like he dangled the big accumulations in front of us the whole time. A lot of people don't have the luxury of being on here 5-10 years and most of the most thanked posts do end up being the OTT incoming snow posts, that's where a lot of people probably focus if they are new round here.

Unfortunately the forum does have some resident hopecasters who as far as I can see don't have the technical wherewithal that others have but definitely make their presence known in the winter threads. Take the FI thread for example. Anytime people try get discussion going or comment on patterns that don't look cold you have people in the thread constantly dismissing it and that the mild won't come etc., calling posters negative or pessimistic, with no actual reason other than they have an internal hope it will snow and want to reverse psychology it into existence. I've typed up countless posts at times and just delete them because it's just not worth the hassle for it to be dismissed with a ''sure that's 4 days away it means nothing!!' response. Same as in this thread they never take to kindly to those who post realistic assessments. What can we do really though. Can't stop people from posting and you're always going to end up with a certain % of posters who fall into the 'where is the snow I was promised' category.

ZeroSum76

ZeroSum76 wrote: »

That proximity sometimes enables us to see Mt. Snowdon on a rare clear day across the foam. Swings and roundabouts I guess - makes 2010 and other previous epic snowfalls seem all the more staggering. Growing up in Wicklow town we had less than a half a dozen decent snowfalls (or so it seems) in the past 40 years.

Wicklow town is bad for frontal snowfall
It had half what we had from Emma
Also in Jan 82,relations came here about a fortnight after that blizzard and were astounded by the ditch high drifts still in place here
Wicklow town is shielded by a vein of high ground to its south
It got a fierce dump in 2010 but that was northeasterly, a sea track to Cumbria, nothing in the way

Mr Bumble

lucernarian wrote: »

Event hadn't even happened at that stage. There's one or two posters whose contribution is nothing except criticise others on some trumped up "allegations" of misrepresenting model output, typically only if it's a pessimistic appraisal of something. It's kinda toxic but let's enjoy what the weather brings either way. Not worth getting upset over some text on a website

So you haven't spotted anyone who seems to take great pleasure in emptying the old bucket of ice water over a thread?
Someone who positively revels in the "i told you so" moment and does it even when it's not necessary, without ever doing any of the forecasting or model explaining to earn the right, just to provoke people?


I've spotted at least two. They're never far away.
It's very odd. I don't see the fun in it.

gerrybhoy

Think its colder now than it was this morning,still the odd smattering of flakes in between some winter sun,the clouds rolling in look fairly dark,wonder if anything will come of it

App showing snow this evening

Villain

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

To be fair, though, the media are not the only ones promoting this BFTE term. A few Tweeters not a million miles away are at it too to gain clicks and follows.

There are also some that have been saying it’s not the beast from the East, many people don’t seem to remember where they read their forecasts and lob all Twitter accounts together.

ZeroSum76

AuntySnow wrote: »

Wicklow town is bad for frontal snowfall
It had half what we had from Emma
Also in Jan 82,relations came here about a fortnight after that blizzard and were astounded by the ditch high drifts still in place here
Wicklow town is shielded by a vein of high ground to its south
It got a fierce dump in 2010 but that was northeasterly, a sea track to Cumbria, nothing in the way

I remember 82! The drifts were way over my head in our garden. But then I was only 6